基于灰色系统的京津冀地下水利用研究
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摘要
京津冀地区作为我国北方最大的人口经济密集区,降雨时空分配不均。多年来,该地区的地下水资源和地质环境受到了人类活动和气候变化的显著影响,而地下水用水量是对人类和自然影响的直接响应。针对于多因素对地下水用水量的影响,本文选取人口、地区生产总值、有效灌溉面积三个因素,运用灰色关联分析法计算了地下水用水量与它们的关联度,并利用均值GM(1,1)模型预测了未来5年该地区的地下水用水量。结果表明:地下水用水量与有效灌溉面积的关联度最高,与人口之间的关联度较高,与地区生产总值之间的关联度不高;未来5年该地区的地下水用水量逐年减少。为了促进该地区协同发展,需合理配置水资源,重点保护地下水资源。
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the largest population-intensive area in north China, there is uneven distribution of rainfall in time and space. Over the years, groundwater resources and the geological environment in the region have been significantly affected by human activities and climate change, and groundwater consumption is a direct response to human and natural impacts. In view of the influence of many factors on the groundwater consumption, this paper selects three factors of population, regional GDP and effective irrigated area. The gray relational analysis method is used to calculate the correlation degree between groundwater consumption and three factors.The model of mean GM(1,1) predicts groundwater use in the area over the next five years.The results show that the correlation between groundwater consumption and effective irrigation area is the highest, the correlation with the population is high, and the correlation between the groundwater consumption and the GDP is not high. The groundwater consumption in this area will decrease year by year in the next five years. In order to promote the coordinated development of the region, it is necessary to rationally allocate water resources and focus on the protection of groundwater resources.
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the largest population-intensive area in north China, there is uneven distribution of rainfall in time and space. Over the years, groundwater resources and the geological environment in the region have been significantly affected by human activities and climate change, and groundwater consumption is a direct response to human and natural impacts. In view of the influence of many factors on the groundwater consumption, this paper selects three factors of population, regional GDP and effective irrigated area. The gray relational analysis method is used to calculate the correlation degree between groundwater consumption and three factors.The model of mean GM(1,1) predicts groundwater use in the area over the next five years.The results show that the correlation between groundwater consumption and effective irrigation area is the highest, the correlation with the population is high, and the correlation between the groundwater consumption and the GDP is not high. The groundwater consumption in this area will decrease year by year in the next five years. In order to promote the coordinated development of the region, it is necessary to rationally allocate water resources and focus on the protection of groundwater resources.
引文
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[3]张健,章新平,王晓云,等.京津冀地区近47a降水量的变化特征[J].干旱气象,2009,27(1):23-28.
[4]胡琪.京津冀区域地下水资源利用与防治分析[J].区域经济,2017,18(6):51-57.
[5]中华人民共和国国家统计局[DB].http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=E0103.
[6]刘思峰,杨英杰,吴利丰.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.
[7]徐玉婷,郑钏.基于均值GM(1,1)模型的避雷器带点检测数据预测[J].延边大学学报,2016,42(4):339-342.