基于模糊优选和可信性的农业水资源多目标优化配置模型
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摘要
干旱半干旱流域内社会、经济和生态问题多是由水资源匮乏或管理不当导致的,因此寻求有效的水资源管理方法至关重要。针对农业水资源配置过程的多目标性和不确定性问题,建立了一个多目标模糊可信性优化模型(MFCP)。该模型不仅通过定量分析不同目标在农业发展中的权重,对决策变量的综合效益进行模糊优选,还基于模糊可信理论处理了模糊参数。所开发的MFCP模型应用于甘肃省武威市民勤灌区进行实证研究,构建了以经济、生态和社会效益为目标、以水土资源自然禀赋限制等为约束的水资源优化配置模型。结果表明,可以通过减小玉米和葵花种植面积、增大瓜类和蔬菜的面积达到区域综合效益最优。以2015年为例,与优化前现状相比,优化后的方案在减少11.1%的种植总面积的情况下,能节约水量12.6%、提高经济收益13.8%。
Many economic,social and ecological problems in arid and semi-arid watersheds can be attributed to the scarcity and mismanagement of water resources.Therefore,it is extremely important to seek effective water resources management methods.In this research,a multi-objective fuzzy credibility programming(MFCP)model was developed for supporting agricultural water resources management.This model can conduct fuzzy optimal selection of the comprehensive benefits of the decision-making variables by quantitatively analyzing the weights of different objectives in agricultural development.It can also deal with fuzzy parameters based on the fuzzy credibility theory.The MFCP model was applied to Minqin County in Wuwei city,Gansu province.An optimization model for water resources was established with economic,ecological,and social benefits as the objectives,with the water and land resources endowment as physical restraints.Results showed that the comprehensive benefits of this region could be optimized by reducing the planting area of corns and sunflowers and increasing the area of melons and vegetables.Compared with the actual situation in 2015,the optimized scheme could save 12.6% water resources and increase economic revenue by 13.8%,while reducing the total planting area by 11.1%.
Many economic,social and ecological problems in arid and semi-arid watersheds can be attributed to the scarcity and mismanagement of water resources.Therefore,it is extremely important to seek effective water resources management methods.In this research,a multi-objective fuzzy credibility programming(MFCP)model was developed for supporting agricultural water resources management.This model can conduct fuzzy optimal selection of the comprehensive benefits of the decision-making variables by quantitatively analyzing the weights of different objectives in agricultural development.It can also deal with fuzzy parameters based on the fuzzy credibility theory.The MFCP model was applied to Minqin County in Wuwei city,Gansu province.An optimization model for water resources was established with economic,ecological,and social benefits as the objectives,with the water and land resources endowment as physical restraints.Results showed that the comprehensive benefits of this region could be optimized by reducing the planting area of corns and sunflowers and increasing the area of melons and vegetables.Compared with the actual situation in 2015,the optimized scheme could save 12.6% water resources and increase economic revenue by 13.8%,while reducing the total planting area by 11.1%.
引文
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[19]张帆,郭萍,任冲锋.分式两阶段随机优化模型在作物种植结构优化中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(9):111-114.(ZHANG F,GUO P,REN C F.Fractional two-stage stochastic programming for crop structure optimization[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower.2016(9):111-114.)(in Chinese))
[20]FENGAB Q,MIAOC Z,LIA Z,et al.Public perception of an ecological rehabilitation project in inland river basins in northern China:Success or failure[J].Environmental Research,2015:20-30.
[21]方国华,黄显峰.多目标决策理论、方法及其应用[M].北京.科学出版社.2011.(FANG G H,HUANG X F.Multi-objective decision theory,method and application[M].Beijing.Science Press,2011.(in Chinese))
[22]刘宝碇.不确定规划及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003.(LIU B D,Uncertain programming and application[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2003.(in Chinese))
[23]李婷.不确定性条件下基于水质模拟的流域水环境管理优化研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2013.(LI T.Water quality simulation based optimization approaches for watershed management under uncertainty[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2013.(in Chinese))
[24]张成龙,郭萍,赵建明.不确定条件下的区间两阶段模糊可信性约束规划配水模型研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(8):97-101.(ZHANG C L,GUO P,ZHAO J M.An interval twostage stochastic fuzzy credibility constrained programming for optimal irrigation water allocation under uncertainty[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2016(8):97-101.(in Chinese))
[25]ZHANG,Y M,HUANG,G H,LIN,Q G,et al.Integer fuzzy credibility constrained programming for power system management[J].Energy,2012,38(1):398-405.
[26]ZHANG,Y M,HUANG G.H Inexact credibility constrained programming for environmental system management[J].Resources,Conservation&Recycling,2010,55(4).
[27]李婷,不确定性条件下基于水质模拟的流域水环境管理优化研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2013.(LI T.Water quality simulation based optimization approaches for watershed management under uncertainty[D].Beijing:North china electric power university,2013)(in Chinese))
[2]TAN Q,HUANG G H,CAI Y P.Radial interval chance-constrained programming for agricultural non-point source water pollution control under uncertainty[J].Agricultural Water Management,2011(10):1595-1606.
[3]XUE X,LIAO J,HSING Y T,et al.Policies,Land use,and water resource management in an arid oasis ecosystem[J].Environmental Management,2015(5):1036-1051.
[4]GUO P,CHEN X,TONG L,et al.An optimization model for a crop deficit irrigation system under uncertainty[J].Engineering Optimization,2014(1):1-14.
[5]DASA B,AJAY SINGHA,PANDAA S N,et al.Optimal land and water resources allocation policies for sustainable irrigated agriculture[J].Land Use Policy,2015:527-537.
[6]SCH?TZE N,KLOSS S,LENNARTZ F,et al.Optimal planning and operation of irrigation systems under water resource constraints in Oman considering climatic uncertainty[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2012(5):1511-1521.
[7]TAN Q,HUANG G H,CAI Y P.Multi-Source Multi-Sector Sustainable Water Supply Under Multiple Uncertainties:An Inexact Fuzzy-Stochastic Quadratic Programming Approach[J].Water Resources Management,2013,27(2):451-473.
[8]SINGH A.Review:Computer-based models for managing the water-resource problems of irrigated agriculture[J].Hydrogeology Journal,2015(6):1217-1227.
[9]CAI Y P,HUANG G H,YEH S C,et al.A modeling approach for investigating climate change impacts on renewable energy utilization[J].International Journal of Energy Research,2012(6):764-777.
[10]LU S,GUAN X,ZHOU M,et al.Land resources allocation strategies in an urban area involving uncertainty:a case study of Suzhou,in the Yangtze River Delta of China[J].Environ Manage,2014 53(5):894-912.
[11]ZHOU M,CHEN Q,CAI Y L.Optimizing the industrial structure of a watershed in association with economic–environmental consideration:an inexact fuzzy multi-objective programming model[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2013 42:116-131.
[12]LI M,GUO P.A multi-objective optimal allocation model for irrigation water resources under multiple uncertainties[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2014 38(19-20):4897-4911.
[13]GALN-MARTNA,VASKANAD P,ANTNAC A,et al.Multi-objective optimization of rainfed and irrigated agricultural areas considering production and environmental criteria:a case study of wheat production in Spain[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017(Part 2):816-830.
[14]陈秉谱,常兆丰,乔娟,等.退耕还林和荒山禁牧的相对生态价值的估算——以甘肃省靖远县永新乡为例[J].干旱区地理,2013(6):1144-1152.(CHEN B P,CHANG Z F,QIAO J,et al.Estimation of relative ecological value of returning farmland to forest&mountain enclosure:A case of Yongxing Township of Jingyuan County,Gansu Province[J].Arid Land Geography,2013(.6):1144-1152.(in Chinese))
[15]常兆丰,王大为,段晓峰,等.民勤荒漠区几种主要植物的相对生态价值[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015(09):86-91.(CHANG Z F,WANG D W,DUAN X F,et al.Relative ecological values of several major plants in minqin desert area[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(9):86-91.(in Chinese))
[16]陈守煜,马建琴,张振伟.作物种植结构多目标模糊优化模型与方法[J].大连理工大学学报,2003(01):12-15.(CHEN S Y,MA J Q,AND ZHANG Z W.A multi-objective fuzzy optimization model for planting structure and its method[J].Journal of Dalian University of Technology,2003,43(1):12-15.(in Chinese))
[17]MI M S.Robust optimization under softness in a fuzzy linear programming problem[J].International Journal of Approximate Reasoning,1998(1):21-34.
[18]何凤.石羊河下游民勤县节水生态型种植结构调整研究[D].兰州:甘肃农业大学,2013.(HE F.Study on the Structure adjustment of Water Saving and Ecological Structure in Minqin County by Shi yang river downstream[D].Lanzhou:Gansu Agricultural University,2013.(in Chinese))
[19]张帆,郭萍,任冲锋.分式两阶段随机优化模型在作物种植结构优化中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(9):111-114.(ZHANG F,GUO P,REN C F.Fractional two-stage stochastic programming for crop structure optimization[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower.2016(9):111-114.)(in Chinese))
[20]FENGAB Q,MIAOC Z,LIA Z,et al.Public perception of an ecological rehabilitation project in inland river basins in northern China:Success or failure[J].Environmental Research,2015:20-30.
[21]方国华,黄显峰.多目标决策理论、方法及其应用[M].北京.科学出版社.2011.(FANG G H,HUANG X F.Multi-objective decision theory,method and application[M].Beijing.Science Press,2011.(in Chinese))
[22]刘宝碇.不确定规划及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003.(LIU B D,Uncertain programming and application[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2003.(in Chinese))
[23]李婷.不确定性条件下基于水质模拟的流域水环境管理优化研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2013.(LI T.Water quality simulation based optimization approaches for watershed management under uncertainty[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2013.(in Chinese))
[24]张成龙,郭萍,赵建明.不确定条件下的区间两阶段模糊可信性约束规划配水模型研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(8):97-101.(ZHANG C L,GUO P,ZHAO J M.An interval twostage stochastic fuzzy credibility constrained programming for optimal irrigation water allocation under uncertainty[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2016(8):97-101.(in Chinese))
[25]ZHANG,Y M,HUANG,G H,LIN,Q G,et al.Integer fuzzy credibility constrained programming for power system management[J].Energy,2012,38(1):398-405.
[26]ZHANG,Y M,HUANG G.H Inexact credibility constrained programming for environmental system management[J].Resources,Conservation&Recycling,2010,55(4).
[27]李婷,不确定性条件下基于水质模拟的流域水环境管理优化研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2013.(LI T.Water quality simulation based optimization approaches for watershed management under uncertainty[D].Beijing:North china electric power university,2013)(in Chinese))
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