美国减税对中国经济的影响——基于跨国数据的实证研究
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摘要
基于1990—2016年跨国数据,本文构建了税收竞争模型、拓展后的贸易引力模型和固定效应模型,分析了美国减税对国际税收竞争、双边货物贸易和国际资本流动的可能影响。结果表明:美国宏观税率每下降1%,其他国家的宏观税率下降0. 2038%,美国减税具有引发减税竞争的国际示范效应;美国宏观税率每下降1%,其贸易伙伴的货物出口额下降3. 90%,货物进口额下降3. 80%,货物贸易总额下降3. 69%,货物净出口额下降5. 12%,美国减税对双边货物贸易具有显著的抑制作用;美国宏观税率每下降1%,其他国家(地区)的投资率下降0. 1826%,美国减税将进一步拉大美国与其他国家(地区)的税负差距,吸引企业和资本回流美国,使得其他国家(地区)面临资本流失、投资降低的问题。
Based on the cross-country data from 1990 to 2016,this paper constructs the tax competition model,the extended gravity model of trade and the fixed effect model,to study the possible effect of US tax cuts on international tax competition,bilateral goods trade and international capital flow. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: The macro tax burden of the United States decreases by 1%,the macro tax burden of other countries declines by 0. 2038%. US tax cuts have an international demonstration effect on tax reduction competition. The macro tax burden of the United States decreases by 1%,the export of goods of its trading partners declines by 3. 90%,the import of goods declines by3. 80%,the total volume of trade declines by 3. 69%,the net export declines by 5. 12%.US tax cuts have a significant inhibitory effect on bilateral goods trade. The macro tax burden of the United States decreases by 1%, the investment rate of other countries( regions) declines by 0. 1826%. US tax cuts will further widen the tax burden gap between the United States and other countries( regions),promote the inverse flow of enterprises and capital to the United States,and make other countries( regions) face the problem of capital loss and investment reduction.
Based on the cross-country data from 1990 to 2016,this paper constructs the tax competition model,the extended gravity model of trade and the fixed effect model,to study the possible effect of US tax cuts on international tax competition,bilateral goods trade and international capital flow. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: The macro tax burden of the United States decreases by 1%,the macro tax burden of other countries declines by 0. 2038%. US tax cuts have an international demonstration effect on tax reduction competition. The macro tax burden of the United States decreases by 1%,the export of goods of its trading partners declines by 3. 90%,the import of goods declines by3. 80%,the total volume of trade declines by 3. 69%,the net export declines by 5. 12%.US tax cuts have a significant inhibitory effect on bilateral goods trade. The macro tax burden of the United States decreases by 1%, the investment rate of other countries( regions) declines by 0. 1826%. US tax cuts will further widen the tax burden gap between the United States and other countries( regions),promote the inverse flow of enterprises and capital to the United States,and make other countries( regions) face the problem of capital loss and investment reduction.
引文
[1]黄立新.特朗普税改法案的总体评析[J].税务研究,2018(1):18-24.
[2]姜跃生.对特朗普税改计划与中国应对之策的思考(上)[J].国际税收,2017(4):35-41.
[3]姜跃生.对特朗普税改计划与中国应对之策的思考(下)[J].国际税收,2017(5):32-37.
[4]李超民,胡怡建.特朗普税制改革取向及其影响[J].税务研究,2017(1):42-46.
[5]李东松.特朗普减税举措对中国税改之影响探析[J].长春师范大学学报,2018(1):48-52.
[6]李敬,雷俐,林黎.特朗普税改的世界影响及我国对策[J].管理世界,2018(2):59-67.
[7]梅新育.特朗普税改内外的影响[J].金融博览,2018(1):32-33.
[8]杨志勇.特朗普税制改革主张评析[J].国际税收,2017(2):32-34.
[9]于雯杰.特朗普减税政策的可行性及影响[J].财政科学,2017(3):136-141.
[10]张燕玲.特朗普减税,中国怎么办[J].中国经济报道,2018(1):40-41.
[11]C. TIEBOUT. A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures. Journal of Political Economy[J],1956(64):416-424.
[12]H. LINNEMANN. An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics and Po-litical Science,1966(33):633-634.
[13]J. A. BRANDER,B. J. Spencer. Export Subsidies and International Market Share Rivalry[J]. Journal of Inter-national Economics,1985(18):83-100.
[14]J. H. BERGSTRAND. The Generalized Gravity Equation,Monopolistic Competition,and the Factor-ProportionsTheory in International Trade[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1989(71):143-153.
[15]J. H. DUNNING. Trade,Location of Economic Activity and the MNE:A Search for an Eclectic Approach[J]. TheInternational Allocation of Economic Activity,1977(1023):395-418.
[16]J. TINBERGEN. Shaping the World Economy:Suggestions for an International Economic Policy[M]. New York:Twentieth Century Fund,1962.
[17]K. BJORVATN,G. SCHJELDERUP. Tax Competition and International Public Goods[J]. International Tax andPublic Finance,2002(9):111-120.
[18]M. J. MELITZ. The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity[J].Econometrica,2003(71):1695-1725.
[19]P. POYHONEN. A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries[J]. Weltwirtschaftliches Archive,1963(90):93-100.
[20]R. S. CHIRINKO,D. J. WILSON. Tax Competition among U. S. States:Racing to the Bottom or Riding on aSeesaw?[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2017(155):147-163.
[21]S. R. YEAPLE. A Simple Model of Firm Heterogeneity,International Trade and Wages[J]. Journal of Internation-al Economics,2005(65):1-20.
[22]W. OATES. Fiscal Federalism,New York[M]. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich,1972.
(1)本文没有使用GTAP模型的理由如下:2002年GTAP数据库中尚未引入详细的国家财政数据,因此GTAP模型难以分析税收政策的经济效应问题;2002年GTAP数据库中只包含113个国家(和地区)的相关资料,而1990-2016年161个国家(地区)的面板数据包含的信息量更丰富,实证结果可能会更为稳健。
(2)本文使用跨国数据而非中美两国数据的原因是:美国减税具有明显的溢出效应,全球其他国家均面临减税压力,由此产生的连锁效应会扩大美国减税政策对中国经济的影响。
[2]姜跃生.对特朗普税改计划与中国应对之策的思考(上)[J].国际税收,2017(4):35-41.
[3]姜跃生.对特朗普税改计划与中国应对之策的思考(下)[J].国际税收,2017(5):32-37.
[4]李超民,胡怡建.特朗普税制改革取向及其影响[J].税务研究,2017(1):42-46.
[5]李东松.特朗普减税举措对中国税改之影响探析[J].长春师范大学学报,2018(1):48-52.
[6]李敬,雷俐,林黎.特朗普税改的世界影响及我国对策[J].管理世界,2018(2):59-67.
[7]梅新育.特朗普税改内外的影响[J].金融博览,2018(1):32-33.
[8]杨志勇.特朗普税制改革主张评析[J].国际税收,2017(2):32-34.
[9]于雯杰.特朗普减税政策的可行性及影响[J].财政科学,2017(3):136-141.
[10]张燕玲.特朗普减税,中国怎么办[J].中国经济报道,2018(1):40-41.
[11]C. TIEBOUT. A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures. Journal of Political Economy[J],1956(64):416-424.
[12]H. LINNEMANN. An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics and Po-litical Science,1966(33):633-634.
[13]J. A. BRANDER,B. J. Spencer. Export Subsidies and International Market Share Rivalry[J]. Journal of Inter-national Economics,1985(18):83-100.
[14]J. H. BERGSTRAND. The Generalized Gravity Equation,Monopolistic Competition,and the Factor-ProportionsTheory in International Trade[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1989(71):143-153.
[15]J. H. DUNNING. Trade,Location of Economic Activity and the MNE:A Search for an Eclectic Approach[J]. TheInternational Allocation of Economic Activity,1977(1023):395-418.
[16]J. TINBERGEN. Shaping the World Economy:Suggestions for an International Economic Policy[M]. New York:Twentieth Century Fund,1962.
[17]K. BJORVATN,G. SCHJELDERUP. Tax Competition and International Public Goods[J]. International Tax andPublic Finance,2002(9):111-120.
[18]M. J. MELITZ. The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity[J].Econometrica,2003(71):1695-1725.
[19]P. POYHONEN. A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries[J]. Weltwirtschaftliches Archive,1963(90):93-100.
[20]R. S. CHIRINKO,D. J. WILSON. Tax Competition among U. S. States:Racing to the Bottom or Riding on aSeesaw?[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2017(155):147-163.
[21]S. R. YEAPLE. A Simple Model of Firm Heterogeneity,International Trade and Wages[J]. Journal of Internation-al Economics,2005(65):1-20.
[22]W. OATES. Fiscal Federalism,New York[M]. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich,1972.
(1)本文没有使用GTAP模型的理由如下:2002年GTAP数据库中尚未引入详细的国家财政数据,因此GTAP模型难以分析税收政策的经济效应问题;2002年GTAP数据库中只包含113个国家(和地区)的相关资料,而1990-2016年161个国家(地区)的面板数据包含的信息量更丰富,实证结果可能会更为稳健。
(2)本文使用跨国数据而非中美两国数据的原因是:美国减税具有明显的溢出效应,全球其他国家均面临减税压力,由此产生的连锁效应会扩大美国减税政策对中国经济的影响。