摘要
传统文献通常假定所有经济体具有相同的生产函数,抑或是将地理位置和人均收入作为分样本的先验划分依据。然而,这一假定是否恰当并未引起足够关注。在有限混合模型的基础上,本文利用1993~2015年中国省级面板数据,依据地区真实GDP条件分布的相似性将不同地区的增长路径内生聚类为多种模式,并探究了背后的决定因素及增长源泉差异。实证结果显示,中国省级经济体的增长路径存在异质性,可以利用3组别有限混合模型进行刻画。同时,人力资本和政府支出有助于理解不同省级经济体的异质性增长模式,而地理位置和人均收入亦具有一定的解释力。更为重要的是,约1/3省份的增长路径存在模式转换,且表现为各项宏观经济指标综合作用的结果。进一步,地区经济增长的分解结果发现,尽管资本积累在不同增长模式中依旧占据着主导地位,但全要素生产率是导致不同模式存在差异化增长率的根本原因。特别地,忽略增长路径异质性将高估物质资本的贡献率约8.2%,并低估全要素生产率的贡献率约7.7%。
引文
(1)包群:《贸易开放与经济增长:只是线性关系吗?》,《世界经济》,2008年第9期。
(2)陈诗一:《能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展》,《经济研究》,2009年第4期。
(3)戴觅、茅锐:《产业异质性、产业结构与中国省际经济收敛》,《管理世界》,2015年第6期。
(4)龚关、胡关亮:《中国制造业资源配置效率与全要素生产率》,《经济研究》,2013年第4期。
(5)黄艳萍、刘榆、吴一群、李文浦:《中国地区经济增长差异:基于分级教育的效应》,《经济研究》,2013年第4期。
(6)金戈:《中国基础设施与非基础设施资本存量及其产出弹性估算》,《经济研究》,2016年第5期。
(7)刘贯春、张军、丰超:《金融体制改革与经济效率提升:来自省级面板数据的经验分析》,《管理世界》,2017a年第6期。
(8)刘贯春、张晓云、邓光耀:《要素重置、经济增长与区域非平衡发展》,《数量经济技术经济研究》,2017b年第7期。
(9)刘瑞明:《金融抑制、所有制歧视与增长拖累》,《经济学(季刊)》,2011年第2期。
(10)倪鹏途、陆铭:《市场准入与“大众创业”:基于微观数据的经验研究》,《世界经济》,2016年第4期。
(11)饶晓辉、刘方:《政府生产性支出与中国的实际经济波动》,《经济研究》,2014年第11期。
(12)杨建芳、龚六堂、张庆华:《人力资本形成及其对经济增长的影响》,《管理世界》,2006年第5期。
(13)张成思、刘贯春:《经济增长进程中金融结构的边际效应演化分析》,《经济研究》,2015年第12期。
(14)张军、吴桂英、张吉鹏:《中国省际物资资本存量估算:1952~2000》,《经济研究》,2004年第10期。
(15)张学良:《中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗?》,《中国社会科学》,2012年第3期。
(16)朱国忠、乔坤元、虞吉海:《中国各省经济增长是否收敛?》,《经济学(季刊)》,2014年第3期。
(17)Alfo,M.,G. Trovato and R. J. Waldmann,2008,“Testing for Country Heterogeneity in Growth Models Using a Finite Mixture Approach”,Journal of Applied Econometrics,Vol.23,pp.487~514.
(18)Arena,M.,2008,“Does Insurance Market Activity Promote Economic Growth? A Cross-country Study for Industrialized and Developing Countries”,Journal of Risk and Insurance,Vol.75,pp.921~946.
(19)Aschauer,D. A.,1989,“Is Public Expenditure Productive?”,Journal of Monetary Economies,Vol.23,pp.177~200.
(20)Barro,R. J.,1990,“Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth”,Journal of Political Economy,Vol.98,pp.S103~S125.
(21)Barro,R. J.,1991,“Economic Growth in a Cross-section of Countries”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.106,pp.407~443.
(22)Benhabib,J. and M. M. Spiegel,1994,“The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development:Evidence from Aggregate Crosscountry Data”,Journal of Monetary Economics,Vol.34,pp.143~173.
(23)Bloom,D. E.,D. Canning and J. Sevilla,2003,“Geography and Poverty Traps”,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.8,pp.355~378.
(24)Bos,J. W. B.,C. Economidou,M. Koetter and J. W. Kolari,2010,“Do All Countries Grow Alike?”,Journal of Development Economics,Vol.91,pp.113~127.
(25)Brock,W. A. and S. N. Durlauf,2001,“What Have We Learned from a Decade of Empirical Research on Growth? Growth Empirics and Reality”,World Bank Economic Review,Vol.15,pp.229~272.
(26)Canova,F.,2004,“Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita:A Predictive Density Approach”,International Economic Review,Vol.45,pp.49~77.
(27)Desdoigts,A.,1999,“Patterns of Economic Development and the Formation of Clubs”,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.4,pp.305~330.
(28)Durlauf,S. N. and P. A. Johnson,1995,“Multiple Regimes and Cross-country Growth Behavior”,Journal of Applied Econometrics,Vol.10,pp.365~384.
(29)Durlauf,S. N.,A. Kourtellos and A. Minkin,2001,“The Local Solow Growth Model”,European Economic Review,Vol.45,pp.928~940.
(30)Eicher,T. S.,1999,“Trade,Development and Converging Growth Rates:Dynamic Gains from Trade Reconsidered”,Journal of International Economics,Vol.48,pp.179~198.
(31)Feng,C.,M. Wang,G. Liu and J. Huang,2017,“Sources of Economic Growth in China from 2000-2013 and Its Further Sustainable Growth Path:A Three-hierarchy Meta-frontier Data Envelopment Analysis”,Economic Modelling,2017,Vol.64,pp.334~348.
(32)Flachaire,E.,C. Garcia-Penalosa and M. Konte,2014,“Political versus Economic Institutions in the Growth Process”,Journal of Comparative Economics,Vol.42,pp.212~229.
(33)Greenwood,J. and B. Jovanovic,1990,“Financial Development,Growth,and the Distribution of Income”,Journal of Political Economy,Vol.98,pp.1076~1107.
(34)Hall,R. E. and C. I. Jones,1999,“Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.19,pp.83~116.
(35)Hsieh,C. T. and P. J. Klenow,2009,“Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.124,pp.1403~1448.
(36)Javorcik,B.,C. Ozden,M. Spatareanu and C. Neagu,2011,“Migrant Networks and Foreign Direct Investment”,Journal of Development Economics,Vol.94,pp.231~241.
(37)Kaganovich,M. and I. Zilcha,1999,“Education,Social Security and Growth”,Journal of Public Economics,Vol.71,pp.289~309.
(38)Konte,M.,2013,“A Curse or Blessing? Natural Resources in a Multiple Growth Regimes Analysis”,Applied Economics,Vol.45,pp.3760~3769.
(39)Levine,R.,2002,“Bank-based or Market-based Financial Systems:Which Is Better?”,Journal of Financial Intermediation,Vol.11,pp.398~428.
(40)Liu,G.,Y. Liu and C. Zhang,2017,“Financial Development,Financial Structure and Income Inequality in China”,World Economy,Vol.40,pp.1890~1917.
(41)Lucas,R. E.,1988,“On the Mechanics of Economic Development”,Journal of Monetary Economics,Vol.22,pp.3~42.
(42)Mankiw,N. G.,D. Romer and D. Weil,1992“A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.107,pp.407~437.
(43)Owen,A.,J. Videras and L. Davis,2009,“Do All Countries Follow the Same Growth Process?”,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.14,pp. 265~286.
(44)Paap,R.,P. H. Franses and D. van Dijk,2005,“Does Africa Grow Slower than Asia,Latin America and the Middle East? Evidence from a New Data-based Classification Method”,Journal of Development Economics,Vol.77,pp.553~570.
(45)Papageorgious,C.,2002,“Trade as a Threshold Variable for Multiple Regimes”,Economics Letters,Vol.77,pp.85~91.
(46)Sala-i-Martin,X.,1997,“I Just Ran 2 Million Regressions”,American Economic Review,Vol.87,pp.178~183.
(47)Sirimaneetham,V. and J.R.W. Temple,2009,“Macroeconomic Stability and the Distribution of Growth Rates”,World Bank Economic Review,Vol.23,pp.443~479.
(48)Solow,R. M.,1994,“Perspectives on Growth Theory”,Journal of Economic Perspectives,Vol.8,pp.45~54.
(49)Song,Z.,K. Storesletten and F. Zilibotti,2011,“Growing like China”,American Economic Review,Vol.101,pp.202~241.
(50)Wang,Z. and C. Feng,2015,“Sources of Production Inefficiency and Productivity Growth in China:A Global Data Envelopment Analysis”,Energy Economics,Vol.49,pp.380~389.
(51)Yu,M.,2015,“Processing Trade,Tariff Reductions,and Firm Productivity:Evidence from Chinese Firms”,Economic Journal,Vol.125,pp.943~988.