北半球秋季欧亚遥相关与华西秋雨的关系
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摘要
利用EOF、相关分析、合成分析等常规统计方法研究华西秋雨与秋季欧亚遥相关(EUa)的关系。结果表明:北半球秋季欧亚遥相关(EUa)指数与华西秋雨呈显著的负相关,两者具有一致的阶段性特征。以1986年为界,20世纪80年代中期之前华西秋雨与EUa指数相关系数波动较大,均在-0.4以上,显著相关区主要集中于四川盆地西南部、贵州大部;20世纪80年代中期之后两者相关系数呈显著增加趋势,且显著相关区域向北偏移,主要集中于四川东北部、重庆大部以及陕西南部地区。EUa异常与华西秋雨的多寡关系显著。EUa正异常年,中高纬度环流形势与水汽特征有利于华西秋雨北部地区降水发生,华西秋雨南部地区缺乏水汽,动力条件不足,不利于秋雨偏多。EUa负异常年,华西秋雨东部地区,表现为有利于降水偏多,而西部地区则特征相反。
The relationship between autumn rainfall in West China and autumn Eurasian teleconnection pattern(EUa)is examined by using the EOF,correlation and composite analysis and so on.The results show that significant negative correlation is found between autumn rainfall in West China and autumn EUa index,both with the phasic and jumping characteristics.The correlation coefficient of both oscillated significantly before 1986,and the significantly related areas mainly concentrated in the southwest Sichuan basin and Guizhou.The correlation coefficient increased significantly after 1986;the significantly related regions moved northward;the obviously correlated areas mainly concentrated in the northeastern Sichuan basin,Chongqing,and southern Shanxi.In the positive anomaly phase of EUa,the insufficient water vapor supply gave rise to the recession of the rainfall.In the negative anomaly phase of EUa,the rainfall amount of the eastern part of the autumn rainfall area increased,while the western shows the opposite reaction.
The relationship between autumn rainfall in West China and autumn Eurasian teleconnection pattern(EUa)is examined by using the EOF,correlation and composite analysis and so on.The results show that significant negative correlation is found between autumn rainfall in West China and autumn EUa index,both with the phasic and jumping characteristics.The correlation coefficient of both oscillated significantly before 1986,and the significantly related areas mainly concentrated in the southwest Sichuan basin and Guizhou.The correlation coefficient increased significantly after 1986;the significantly related regions moved northward;the obviously correlated areas mainly concentrated in the northeastern Sichuan basin,Chongqing,and southern Shanxi.In the positive anomaly phase of EUa,the insufficient water vapor supply gave rise to the recession of the rainfall.In the negative anomaly phase of EUa,the rainfall amount of the eastern part of the autumn rainfall area increased,while the western shows the opposite reaction.
引文
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[2]陈受钧.从夏季到秋季亚洲上空大气环流的转变[J].北京大学学报(自然科学),1960(1):85-91.
[3]高由禧,郭其蕴.我国的秋雨现象[J].气象学报,1958,29(4):264-273.
[4]冯丽文,郭其蕴.华西秋雨的多年变化[J].地理研究,1983,2(1):74-84.
[5]梁健洪.华西秋雨的时空分布[J].地理科学,1989,9(1):51-59.
[6]方建刚,白爱娟,陶建玲,等.2003年陕西秋季连阴雨降水特点及环流条件分析[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(4):509-517.
[7]鲍媛媛,阿布力米提,李峰,等.2001年华西秋雨时空分布特点及其成因分析[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(2):215-222.
[8]徐裕华.西南气候[M].北京:气象出版社,1991:15-50.
[9]陈忠明,刘富明,赵平,等.青藏高原地表热状况与华西秋雨[J].高原气象,2001,20(1):94-99.
[10]Niu Ning,Li Jianping.Interannual variability of autumn precipitation over south China and its relation to atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2008,25(1):117-125.
[11]Wallace J M,Gutzler D S.Teleconnections in the geopotential Height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter[J].Mon Wea Rev,1981,109(4):784-812.
[12]刘毓赟,陈文.北半球冬季欧亚遥相关型的变化特征及其对我国气候的影响[J].大气科学,2012,36(2):423-432.
[13]李维京,丑纪范.北半球月平均环流与长江中下游降水的关系[J].气象科学,1990,10(2):139-146.
[14]Wang L,Chen W,Zhou W,et al.2010.Effect of the climate shift around mid1970son the relationship between winter time Ural blocking circulation and East Asian climate[J].International Journal of Climatology,30(1):153-158.
[15]左璇,肖子牛.冬季欧亚型遥相关候时间尺度异常特征及其对我国天气的影响[J].气象,2013,39(9):1096-1102.
[16]陈芳丽,黎伟标.北半球大气遥相关型冬夏差异及其与温度场关系的探讨[J].大气科学,2009,33(3):513-523.
[17]刘毓赟.欧亚遥相关型的时空演变特征及其机理研究[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2013:1-102.
[18]杨小波,王永光,梁潇云.11月气候异常型及前期环流信号[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(3):275-282.
[19]徐桂玉,林春育.华西秋雨特征及成因探讨[J].气象科学,1994,12(4):149-154.
[20]白虎志,董文杰.华西秋雨的气候特征及成因分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(6):884-889.
[21]何敏.我国主要秋雨区的分布及长期预报[J].气象,1984,10(9):10-13.
[22]罗霄,李栋梁,王慧.华西秋雨演变的新特征及其对大气环流的响应[J].高原气象,2013,32(4):1019-1031.