苏州市胃癌死亡趋势与预测分析
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摘要
目的了解1985—2017年苏州市胃癌死亡趋势,预测未来3年死亡率,为评估胃癌防治效果提供依据。方法利用近33年死因监测数据,采用死亡率、年度变化百分比(APC)指标,描述不同年份、年龄段的死亡率分布情况和变化趋势,应用时间序列分析自回归滑动平均混合模型(ARIMA),预测2018—2020年苏州市胃癌死亡率。结果 1985—2017年苏州市居民胃癌年均粗死亡率为41.20/10万,年均标化死亡率为36.94/10万,粗死亡率、标化死亡率均呈现下降趋势(粗死亡率:APC=-1.03%,t=20.53,P<0.01;标化死亡率:APC=-3.42%,t=36.53,P<0.01),其中45～59岁年龄段胃癌粗死亡率降幅最大,较30多年前降至约1/4。随着年龄的增长粗死亡率呈直线上升趋势,≥60岁年龄组高达200.37/10万。应用ARIMA(0,1,1)预测苏州市2018—2020年胃癌粗死亡率分别为34.18/10万、33.85/10万,33.53/10万。结论苏州市居民胃癌死亡率总体呈现下降趋势,≥60岁以上老年人胃癌死亡率最高。
Objective To understand the death trend of gastric cancer in Suzhou from 1985 to 2017;to predict the mortality rates in the next 3 years;to provide evidence for evaluating the effectiveness of gastric cancer prevention and treatment.Methods The mortality rates and annual change percentage(APC)were used to describe the mortality distribution and change trend in different years or age groups using death surveillance data for the last 33 years;the autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)was used to predict the mortality rates of gastric cancer in Suzhou from 2018 to 2020.Results The annual crude mortality rate of gastric cancer in Suzhou was 41.20/105,and the annual average standardized mortality rate was 36.94/105 from 1985 to 2017;both showed downward trends(the crude mortality rate:APC=-1.03%,t=20.53,P<0.01;the standardized mortality rate:APC=-3.42%,t=36.53,P<0.01).Among all age groups,the crude mortality rate of gastric cancer in the 45-59 age group decreased the most,down to about 1/4 from 30 years ago.The crude mortality rate showed a straight upward trend upon age,and the mortality rate of group with age ≥60 years was up to200.37/105.ARIMA(0,1,1)was used to predict the crude mortality rates of gastric cancer from 2018 to 2020 in Suzhou,resulting 34.18/105,33.85/105,33.53/105 respectively.Conclusion The mortality rate of gastric cancer among residents in Suzhou demonstrats general decreasing trend,elderly above 60 years has highest mortality rate of gastric cancer.
Objective To understand the death trend of gastric cancer in Suzhou from 1985 to 2017;to predict the mortality rates in the next 3 years;to provide evidence for evaluating the effectiveness of gastric cancer prevention and treatment.Methods The mortality rates and annual change percentage(APC)were used to describe the mortality distribution and change trend in different years or age groups using death surveillance data for the last 33 years;the autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)was used to predict the mortality rates of gastric cancer in Suzhou from 2018 to 2020.Results The annual crude mortality rate of gastric cancer in Suzhou was 41.20/105,and the annual average standardized mortality rate was 36.94/105 from 1985 to 2017;both showed downward trends(the crude mortality rate:APC=-1.03%,t=20.53,P<0.01;the standardized mortality rate:APC=-3.42%,t=36.53,P<0.01).Among all age groups,the crude mortality rate of gastric cancer in the 45-59 age group decreased the most,down to about 1/4 from 30 years ago.The crude mortality rate showed a straight upward trend upon age,and the mortality rate of group with age ≥60 years was up to200.37/105.ARIMA(0,1,1)was used to predict the crude mortality rates of gastric cancer from 2018 to 2020 in Suzhou,resulting 34.18/105,33.85/105,33.53/105 respectively.Conclusion The mortality rate of gastric cancer among residents in Suzhou demonstrats general decreasing trend,elderly above 60 years has highest mortality rate of gastric cancer.
引文
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[11] Lin Y,Chen M,Chen G,et al.Application of an autoregressive integrated moving average model for predicting injury mortality in Xiamen,China[J].BMJ Open,2015,5(12):e008491.
[12]胡文斌,张婷,秦威,等.ARIMA乘积季节模型在恶性肿瘤月度发病率预测中的应用[J].中国肿瘤,2017,26(12):960-966.
[13] Rahman R,Asombang AW,Ibdah JA.Characteristics of gastric cancer in Asia[J].World J Gastroenterol,2014,20(16):4483-4490.
[14] Zheng L,Wu C,Xi P,et al.The survival and the long-term trends of patients with gastric cancer in Shanghai,China[J].BMC Cancer,2014,14:300.
[15]蔡炜宇,姚文茜,李艳,等.胃癌患者生命质量及其影响因素研究[J].江苏预防医学,2016,27(1):6-11.
[2] Rahman R,Asombang AW,Ibdah JA.Characteristics of gastric cancer in Asia[J].World J Gastroenterol,2014,20(16):4483-4490.
[3]赵平,孔灵芝.中国肿瘤死亡报告-全国第三次死因回顾抽样调查[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2010.52-62.
[4]王宝华,王宁,冯雅靖,等.1990年与2013年中国人群胃癌疾病负担分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2016,37(6):763-767.
[5]刘莹,胡锡敏,陈言.ARIMA模型在海南省2014-2017年居民自杀死亡率中的应用[J].中华流行病学杂志,2018,39(5):664-668.
[6] Ferlay J,Soerjomataram I,Dikshit R,et al.Cancer incidence and mortality worldwide:sources,methods and major patterns in GLOBOCAN 2012[J].Int J Cancer,2015,136(5):E359-E386.
[7]刘韫宁,刘江美,刘世炜,等.1990年与2010年中国恶性肿瘤疾病负担研究[J].中华预防医学杂志,2015,49(4):309-314.
[8]张思维,杨之洵,郑荣寿,等.2013年中国胃癌发病与死亡分析[J].中华肿瘤杂志,2017,39(7):547-552.
[9]周惠,陈晓军,张杨,等.ARIMA模型在肺结核登记病例数预测中的应用[J].江苏预防医学,2018,29(3):286-288.
[10] Wei W,Jiang J,Liang H,et al.Application of a Combined Model withAutoregressiveIntegratedMovingAverage(ARIMA)and Generalized Regression Neural Network(GRNN)in Forecasting Hepatitis Incidence in Heng County,China[J].PLoS One,2016,11(6):e0156768.
[11] Lin Y,Chen M,Chen G,et al.Application of an autoregressive integrated moving average model for predicting injury mortality in Xiamen,China[J].BMJ Open,2015,5(12):e008491.
[12]胡文斌,张婷,秦威,等.ARIMA乘积季节模型在恶性肿瘤月度发病率预测中的应用[J].中国肿瘤,2017,26(12):960-966.
[13] Rahman R,Asombang AW,Ibdah JA.Characteristics of gastric cancer in Asia[J].World J Gastroenterol,2014,20(16):4483-4490.
[14] Zheng L,Wu C,Xi P,et al.The survival and the long-term trends of patients with gastric cancer in Shanghai,China[J].BMC Cancer,2014,14:300.
[15]蔡炜宇,姚文茜,李艳,等.胃癌患者生命质量及其影响因素研究[J].江苏预防医学,2016,27(1):6-11.