京津冀地区居民采暖“煤改电”的大气污染物减排潜力与健康效益评估
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摘要
散煤燃烧等低矮面源的排放对京津冀等地区采暖季ρ(PM2. 5)贡献较大,是重污染天气形成的重要原因之一.针对京津冀地区居民采暖"煤改电"治理工程,以2025年为目标年,以不做任何散煤治理工作为基准情景,同时设计2种不同的控制情景(控制情景1、控制情景2),评估不同控制情景下"煤改电"带来的健康效益.通过综合考量民用散煤占燃煤消费量的比例、散煤PM2. 5排放强度,结合京津冀地区各城市PM2. 5源解析结果,确定民用散煤对大气环境ρ(PM2. 5)的贡献系数,计算空气质量改善情况.在此基础上,综合流行病学相关研究成果,运用环境健康风险评估方法,预测不同控制情景中京津冀地区居民采暖"煤改电"带来的健康效益.结果表明:(1)京津冀地区在控制情景1中ρ(PM2. 5)年均值分别下降4. 9、4. 9和1. 1μg/m~3,在控制情景2中分别下降5. 4、5. 6和2. 0μg/m~3;(2)在控制情景1、控制情景2中京津冀地区居民采暖"煤改电"带来的健康效益分别为266. 55×108和352. 34×108元,分别约占京津冀地区2015年GDP的0. 38%和0. 51%.研究显示,通过实施"煤改电",京津冀地区可实现的健康效益相当可观,其中,北京市获得的健康效益最大,其次是河北省和天津市.
The emissions from non-point source pollution such as residential coal combustion contribute greatly to the concentration of PM2. 5in the heating season in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,which is one of the important reasons for the formation of heavy air pollution.In this study,three scenarios for the‘residential coal changing to electricity'project in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region were designed.Taking 2025 as the target year,without any coal control as the baseline scenario,two different control scenarios( EC1,EC2) were set.The health and economic benefits from the ‘residential coal changing to electricity'under different scenarios were evaluated. The air quality improvement was estimated considering the amount of residential coal reduction and the contribution of residential coal to PM2. 5concentration,which was determined by the ratio of residential coal to the total coal consumption,the emission intensity of PM2. 5from residential coal combustion,and source apportionment of PM2. 5in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Based on the air improvement estimation and the research results of epidemiology,an environmental health risk assessment was used to predict the health benefits in the different control scenarios. The result showed:(1) In EC1,the annual average concentrations of PM2. 5in Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei will decrease by 4. 9,4. 9 and 1. 1 μg/m~3,respectively,while in EC2 it will decrease by 5. 4,5. 6 and 2. 0 μg/m~3,respectively.(2) Compared with the BAU scenario,the health benefit in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in EC1 and EC2 will be 266. 55×108and352. 34×108RMB,accounting for 0. 38%,0. 51% of the GDP of this region in 2015. The research showed that Beijing,Tianjin,andHebei will get considerable health benefits,in which Beijing will get the largest health benefits,followed by Hebei and Tianjin.
The emissions from non-point source pollution such as residential coal combustion contribute greatly to the concentration of PM2. 5in the heating season in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,which is one of the important reasons for the formation of heavy air pollution.In this study,three scenarios for the‘residential coal changing to electricity'project in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region were designed.Taking 2025 as the target year,without any coal control as the baseline scenario,two different control scenarios( EC1,EC2) were set.The health and economic benefits from the ‘residential coal changing to electricity'under different scenarios were evaluated. The air quality improvement was estimated considering the amount of residential coal reduction and the contribution of residential coal to PM2. 5concentration,which was determined by the ratio of residential coal to the total coal consumption,the emission intensity of PM2. 5from residential coal combustion,and source apportionment of PM2. 5in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Based on the air improvement estimation and the research results of epidemiology,an environmental health risk assessment was used to predict the health benefits in the different control scenarios. The result showed:(1) In EC1,the annual average concentrations of PM2. 5in Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei will decrease by 4. 9,4. 9 and 1. 1 μg/m~3,respectively,while in EC2 it will decrease by 5. 4,5. 6 and 2. 0 μg/m~3,respectively.(2) Compared with the BAU scenario,the health benefit in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in EC1 and EC2 will be 266. 55×108and352. 34×108RMB,accounting for 0. 38%,0. 51% of the GDP of this region in 2015. The research showed that Beijing,Tianjin,andHebei will get considerable health benefits,in which Beijing will get the largest health benefits,followed by Hebei and Tianjin.
引文
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[2] SMITH K R. Fuel combustion,air pollution exposure,and health:the situation in developing countries,annual review of energy and environment[M].Hawaii:Annual Reviews,1993:529-566.
[3] GRIESHOP A P,MARSHALL J D,KANDLIKAR M. Health and climate benefits of cookstove replacement options[J]. Energy Policy,2011,39(12):7350-7542.
[4]支国瑞,杨俊超,张涛,等.我国北方农村生活燃煤情况调查、排放估算及政策启示[J].环境科学研究,2015,28(8):1179-1185.ZHI Guorui,YANG Junchao,ZHANG Tao,et al. Rural household coal use survey,emission estimation and policy implications[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2015,28(8):1179-1185.
[5]赵文慧,徐谦,李令军,等.北京平原区城乡结合部燃煤散烧及污染物排放量估算[J].环境科学研究,2015(6):859-867.ZHAO Wenhui,XU Qian,LI Lingjun,et al. Estimation of coal consumption and related contamination emission in the plain area around Beijing during winterseason[J]. Research of Environmental Science,2015(6):859-867.
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[7]清华大学建筑节能研究中心.中国建筑节能年度发展研究报告2016[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2016:54.
[8] GBD MAPS Working Group.Burden of disease attributable to coalburning and other major sources of air pollution in China. Special report 20[R/OL]. Boston,MA:Health Effects Institute,2016[2018-09-20]. https://www. healtheffects. org/publication/burdendisease-attributable-coal-burning-and-other-air-pollution-sourceschina-chinese.
[9]王跃思,张军科,王莉莉,等.京津冀区域大气霾污染研究意义、现状及展望[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(3):388-396.WANG Yuesi,ZHANG Junke,WANG Lili,et al. Researching significance,status and expectation of haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J].Advances in Earth Science,2014,29(3):388-396.
[10]闫祯,陈潇君.我国“十三五”能源与环境协同发展策略研究[J].环境与可持续发展,2017,42(2):31-35.YAN Zhen,CHEN Xiaojun. Study on synergetic development strategy of energy and environment in the 13thFive-Year period[J].Environment and Sustainable Development,2017,42(2):31-35.
[11] LI X,ZHANG Q,ZHANG Y,et al. Source contributions of urban PM2. 5in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region:changes between 2006and 2013 and relative impacts of emissions and meteorology[J].Atmospheric Environment,2015,123:229-239.
[12]环境保护部,北京市人民政府,天津市人民政府,等.京津冀大气污染防治强化措施(2016—2017年)[EB/OL].北京:环境保护部,2016-06-17[2017-10-11]. http://www. envsc. cn/details/index/6130.
[13]环境保护部,国家发展改革委,财政部,等.京津冀及周边地区2017年大气污染防治工作方案[EB/OL].北京:环境保护部,2017-02-17[2017-10-23]. http://dqhj. mep. gov. cn/dtxx/201703/t20170323_408663.shtml.
[14] KAN H D,LONDON S J,CHEN G H,et al. Differentiating the effects of fine and coarse particles on daily mortality in Shanghai,China[J].Environment International,2007,33(3):376-384.
[15]阚海东,陈秉衡.我国大气颗粒物暴露与人群健康效应的关系[J].环境与健康,2002,19(6):422-424.KAN Haidong,CHEN Bingheng. Analysis of exposure-response relationships of air particulate matter and adverse health outcomes in China[J]. Journal of Environment and Health,2002,19(6):422-424.
[16] GUO Y,JIA Y,PAN X,et al. The association between fine particulate air pollution and hospital emergency room visits for cardio-vascular diseases in Beijing,China[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2009,407(17):4826-4830.
[17] GUO Y,BARNETT A G,ZHANG Y,et al.The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in Tianjin,China:comparison of time series and case-crossover analyses[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2010,409(2):300-306.
[18]陈仁杰,陈秉衡,阚海东.我国113个城市大气颗粒物污染的健康经济学评价[J].中国环境科学,2010,30(3):410-415.CHEN Renjie,CHEN Bingheng,KAN Haidong. A health-based economic assessment of particulate air pollution in 113 Chinese cities[J].China Environmental Science,2010,30(3):410-415.
[19] STRAND M,VEDAL S,RODES C,et al. Estimating effects of ambient PM2. 5exposure on health using PM2. 5component measurements and regression calibration[J]. Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology,2006,16(1):30-38.
[20] GEORGOPOULOS P G,WANG S W,VYAS V M,et al.A sourceto-dose population exposure assessment of population exposures to fine pm and ozone in Philadelphia,PA,during a summer 1999episode[J]. Exposure Analysis and Environment Epidemiology,2005,15(5):439-57.
[21]黄德生,张世秋.京津冀地区控制PM2. 5污染的健康效益评估[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(1):166-174.HUANG Desheng,ZHANG Shiqiu. Health benefit evaluation for PM2. 5pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China[J].China Environmental Science,2013,33(1):166-174.
[22] World Health Organization. WHO air quality guidelines for particulate matter,ozone,nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide[R/OL]. Geneva:World Health Organization Boston,2006[2018-01-20]. http://whqlibdoc. who. int/hq/2006/WHO_SDE_PHE_OEH_06. 02_eng.pdf.
[23] DOCKERY D W,POPE C A,XU X,et al.An association between air pollution and mortality in six US cities[J].New England Journal of Medicine,1993,329(24):1753-1759.
[24] POPE C A,BURNETT R T,THUN M J,et al. Lung cancer,cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution[J]. Journal of American Medical Association,2002,287(9):1132-1141.
[25]钱孝琳,阚海东,宋伟民,等.大气细颗粒物污染与居民每日死亡关系的Meta分析[J].环境与健康杂志,2005(4):246-248.QIAN Xiaolin,GAN Haidong,SONG Weimin,et al.Meta-analysis of association between air fine particulate matter and dailymortality[J].Journal of Environment and Health,2005(4):246-248.
[26]李沛,辛金元,王跃思.中国气象学会.S7气候环境变化与人体健康[C]//李沛.北京市大气颗粒物污染对人群死亡率的影响研究.沈阳:中国气象学会,2012:11.
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