中国省域绿色发展的空间格局及其演变特征
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摘要
基于四部委发布的《绿色发展指标体系》,对中国大陆除西藏以外的30个省份2013—2016年的绿色发展状况进行了深入评价,并采用空间计量模型实证考察了中国绿色发展的空间格局及其演变特点。研究发现:(1)中国省域绿色发展存在较为明显的地域性差异,绿色发展指数较高的地区主要分布在经济发展水平较高的东部沿海省份和生态禀赋较好的西南省份。(2)在变动趋势上,中国绿色发展水平整体呈现上升趋势,且东部和中部省份的绿色发展提升趋势要相对快于西部省份。从省际绿色发展水平变动来看,存在多数省份绿色发展水平提升和个别省份绿色发展水平下降并存的趋势特征。(3)从全局空间自相关来看,中国绿色发展存在较明显的空间自相关特征,但2013—2016年省域绿色发展的空间集聚程度逐渐减弱。从局域空间自相关来看,绿色发展水平高的省份和绿色发展水平低的省份在地理空间分布上均相对集中,且2013年到2016年发生跃迁的省份仅有7个,反映出绿色发展空间分布格局的相对稳定。(4)从空间自相关的驱动因素来看,资源利用指数的空间集聚特征不明显,生态保护、增长质量和绿色生活指数的空间集聚性增强,而环境治理和环境质量指数的空间集聚性减弱,即环境领域的竞相向上趋势是驱动绿色发展从集聚走向平衡的主要因素。(5)从收敛性趋势来看,省际绿色发展存在落后地区追赶领先地区的趋势,其中生态保护和资源利用方面的追赶趋势最为明显。此外,在空间分布层面,绿色发展呈现"俱乐部"收敛特征,主要是源于增长质量的空间集聚以及生态保护的地域性差别。
Based on the ‘Green Development Index System'issued by the four Ministries and Commissions,the paper evaluated the green development status of 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2016,and empirically examines the spatial pattern and evolution characteristics of Chinese green development using spatial econometric models. Results are listed as follows:(1) There are obvious regional differences in the green development of Chinese provinces. The regions with higher green development index are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal provinces with higher levels of economic development and the southwestern provinces with better ecological endowments.(2)In terms of changing trends,the overall level of Chinese green development is on an upward trend,and the eastern provinces and the central provinces have a relatively faster green development trend than the western provinces. In terms of the changes in the provincial level of green development,the green development level has the trend that most of provinces are increasing and individual provinces are decreasing.(3)From the perspective of global spatial autocorrelation,there is a clear spatial autocorrelation feature in Chinese green development. However,the degree of spatial clustering of provincial green development has gradually weakened during 2013-2016. From the perspective of local spatial autocorrelation, the provinces with high levels of green development and those with low levels of green development are all relatively concentrated in the geographical distribution. There are only 7 provinces that experienced the transition from 2013 to 2016,reflecting the relative stability of the spatial pattern of green development.(4) From the perspective of the drivers of spatial autocorrelation,the spatial agglomeration characteristic of resource utilization index is not obvious,and the spatial aggregation characteristic of ecological protection,growth quality and green living index is enhanced,while the spatial aggregation characteristic of environmental governance and environmental quality index is weakened. The competitive upward trend in the environmental field is the main factor that drives green development from agglomeration to balance.(5)In the trend of convergence,there is a tendency for backward regions to catch up with leading regions in the green development of provinces,among which the catch-up trend in ecological protection and resource utilization is the most obvious. In addition,at the spatial distribution level,the green development presents the ‘club convergence ' feature,which is mainly due to the spatial aggregation of the growth quality and the regional differences in the ecological protection.
Based on the ‘Green Development Index System'issued by the four Ministries and Commissions,the paper evaluated the green development status of 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2016,and empirically examines the spatial pattern and evolution characteristics of Chinese green development using spatial econometric models. Results are listed as follows:(1) There are obvious regional differences in the green development of Chinese provinces. The regions with higher green development index are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal provinces with higher levels of economic development and the southwestern provinces with better ecological endowments.(2)In terms of changing trends,the overall level of Chinese green development is on an upward trend,and the eastern provinces and the central provinces have a relatively faster green development trend than the western provinces. In terms of the changes in the provincial level of green development,the green development level has the trend that most of provinces are increasing and individual provinces are decreasing.(3)From the perspective of global spatial autocorrelation,there is a clear spatial autocorrelation feature in Chinese green development. However,the degree of spatial clustering of provincial green development has gradually weakened during 2013-2016. From the perspective of local spatial autocorrelation, the provinces with high levels of green development and those with low levels of green development are all relatively concentrated in the geographical distribution. There are only 7 provinces that experienced the transition from 2013 to 2016,reflecting the relative stability of the spatial pattern of green development.(4) From the perspective of the drivers of spatial autocorrelation,the spatial agglomeration characteristic of resource utilization index is not obvious,and the spatial aggregation characteristic of ecological protection,growth quality and green living index is enhanced,while the spatial aggregation characteristic of environmental governance and environmental quality index is weakened. The competitive upward trend in the environmental field is the main factor that drives green development from agglomeration to balance.(5)In the trend of convergence,there is a tendency for backward regions to catch up with leading regions in the green development of provinces,among which the catch-up trend in ecological protection and resource utilization is the most obvious. In addition,at the spatial distribution level,the green development presents the ‘club convergence ' feature,which is mainly due to the spatial aggregation of the growth quality and the regional differences in the ecological protection.
引文
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[13]林伯强,黄光晓.梯度发展模式下中国区域碳排放的演化趋势---基于空间分析的视角[J].金融研究,2011(12):35-46.[LIN Boqiang,HUANG Guangxiao.The evolutionary trend of China’s regional carbon emissions under the gradient development model:based on the perspective of spatial analysis[J].Journal of financial research,2011(12):35-46.]
[2]李晓西,刘一萌,宋涛.人类绿色发展指数的测算[J].中国社会科学,2014(6):69-95.[LI Xiaoxi,LIU Yimeng,SONG Tao.The calculation of human green development index[J].Social sciences in China,2014(6):69-95.]
[3]中国科学院可持续发展战略研究组.2006中国可持续发展报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.[Sustainable Development Strategy Study Group,Chinese Academy of Sciences.China sustainable development report 2006[M].Beijing:Science Press,2006.]
[4]苏利阳,郑红霞,王毅.中国省际工业绿色发展评估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(8):116-122.[SU Liyang,ZHENG Hongxia,WANG Yi.Evaluation on green development of China’s provincial industry[J].China population,resources and environment,2013,23(8):116-122.]
[5]曾贤刚,毕瑞亨.绿色经济发展总体评价与区域差异分析[J].环境科学研究,2014,27(12):1564-1570.[ZENG Xiangang,BIRuiheng.Evaluation and differential analysis of regional green economic development in China[J].Research of environmental sciences,2014,27(12):1564-1570.]
[6]吴传清,黄磊.演进轨迹、绩效评估与长江中游城市群的绿色发展[J].改革,2017(3):65-77.[WU Chuanqing,HUANG Lei.Evolution track,performance evaluation and green development of urban agglomerations in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Reform,2017(3):65-77.]
[7]俞海,王勇,张永亮,等.“十三五”中国绿色增长路径识别分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(S1):1-8.[YU Hai,WANG Yong,ZHANG Yongliang,et al.The path China’s green growth in the 13th Five Year Plan period[J].China population,resources and environment,2017,27(S1):1-8.]
[8]国家统计局.2016年生态文明建设年度评价结果公报[R].2017.[National Bureau of Statistics.Bulletin of the annual assessment of ecological civilization construction in 2016[R].2017.]
[9]国家发展和改革委员会.关于印发《绿色发展指标体系》《生态文明建设考核目标体系》的通知[R].2016.[National Development and Reform Commission.Notice on printing and distributing the green development indicator system and ecological civilization construction assessment target system[R].2016.]
[10]成金华,李悦,陈军.中国生态文明发展水平的空间差异与趋同性[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(5):1-9.[CHENGJinhua,LI Yue,CHEN Jun.Regional difference and convergence of ecological civilization level in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2015(5):1-9.]
[11]赵桂梅,赵桂芹,陈丽珍,等.中国碳排放强度的时空演进及跃迁机制[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(10):84-93.[ZHAO Guimei,ZHAO Guiqin,CHEN Lizhen,et al.Research on spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emission intensity and its transition mechanism in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2017,27(10):84-93.]
[12]王勇,俞海,张永亮,等.中国环境质量拐点:基于EKC的实证判断[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(10):1-7.[WANGYong,YU Hai,ZHANG Yongliang,et al.Turning point of China’s environmental quality:empirical judgment based on EKC[J].China population,resources and environment,2016,26(10):1-7.]
[13]林伯强,黄光晓.梯度发展模式下中国区域碳排放的演化趋势---基于空间分析的视角[J].金融研究,2011(12):35-46.[LIN Boqiang,HUANG Guangxiao.The evolutionary trend of China’s regional carbon emissions under the gradient development model:based on the perspective of spatial analysis[J].Journal of financial research,2011(12):35-46.]