动态视角下的城市道路交通网络失效评价模型
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摘要
利用可靠性相关理论,在对交通网络状态变化规律分析的基础上,给出了城市道路交通单元及交通网络的"失效—非失效"态的表达方法;分析了路段单元及交通网络的状态从观察起始点t0到首次演变到"失效态"的时间分布规律,并以此为基础推导了城市道路单元及交通网络的失效概率、平均失效时长、失效率以及条件失效时长等失效评价模型,给出了模型标定的方法。以国内某城市核心城区五条道路单元组成的路网为实例,对首次失效时间进行了分布拟合及检验,对模型进行了标定,并将模型计算结果与实际观察结果进行了对比。结果表明,利用对数正态分布来拟合首次失效时间较为理想,而且模型的计算结果与实际观察结果也非常接近,表明模型具有良好的实用性。
Based on the reliability theory,this paper gave the expression of the "failure-non failure"state of the urban road traffic unit and the traffic network and analyzed the change law of their states; analyzed the time distribution of the link unit and the traffic network from the observed starting point t0 to the "first failure state". Based on these,it deduced the failure probability,average failure time,failure rate and conditional length of failure time of the urban road unit and traffic network,it also gave the method of model calibration. It took a road traffic network that composed of five road units in a core city of China by an example,fitted and checked the first failure time of the road units and the traffic network,also compared the model calculation results with the actual observation results. The results show that it is better to use logarithmic normal distribution to fit the first failure time,and the calculation results of the model are very close to the actual observation results,which shows that the model has good practicability.
Based on the reliability theory,this paper gave the expression of the "failure-non failure"state of the urban road traffic unit and the traffic network and analyzed the change law of their states; analyzed the time distribution of the link unit and the traffic network from the observed starting point t0 to the "first failure state". Based on these,it deduced the failure probability,average failure time,failure rate and conditional length of failure time of the urban road unit and traffic network,it also gave the method of model calibration. It took a road traffic network that composed of five road units in a core city of China by an example,fitted and checked the first failure time of the road units and the traffic network,also compared the model calculation results with the actual observation results. The results show that it is better to use logarithmic normal distribution to fit the first failure time,and the calculation results of the model are very close to the actual observation results,which shows that the model has good practicability.
引文
[1]邹志云,毛保华,龚全州,等.城市道路网络失效(堵塞)相关性分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2009,9(2):110-114.(Zou Zhiyun,Mao Baohua,Gong Quanzhou,et al. Failure correlation analysis of urban road network[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2009,9(2):110-114.)
[2]马文·劳沙德.系统可靠性理论:模型、统计方法及应用[M]. 2版.北京:国防工业出版社,2010.(Rausand M. System reliability theory:models,statistical methods,and applications[M]. 2nd ed.Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2010.)
[3] Kamm L. Reliability and maintenance[M]. Los Angeles:Social Science Electronic Publishing,2017.
[4]肖雪梅,贾利民.城市轨道交通路网连通可靠度评估模型[J].中国铁道科学,2016,37(1):132-137.(Xiao Xuemei,Jia Liming.Evaluation model for connectivity reliability of urban rail transit network[J]. China Railway Science,2016,37(1):132-137.)
[5]马洪伟,周溪召.随机交通网络渐近连通可靠性分析[J].运筹与管理,2015,24(3):45-50.(Ma Hongwei,Zhou Xizhao. The asymptotic connect reliability analysis of stochastic transportation network[J]. Operations Research and Management Science,2015,24(3):45-50.)
[6] Sun Huijun,Wu Jianjun,Wang Wei,et al. Reliability-based traffic network design with advanced traveler information systems[J]. Information Sciences,2014,287(12):121-130.
[7] Sumalee A,Watling D,Nakayama S. Reliable network design problem:case with uncertain demand and total travel time reliability[J].Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2006,1964(1):81-90.
[8] Bhat C R,Sardesai R. The impact of stop-making and travel time reliability on commute mode choice[J]. Transportation Research Part B Methodological,2006,40(9):709-730.
[9] Clark S,Watling D. Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand[J]. Transportation Research Part B Methodological,2005,39(2):119-140.
[10]Liu H X,Recker W,Chen A. Travel time reliability[M]. Berlin:Springer,2004.
[11]林徐勋,袁鹏程,霍良安.基于概率密度演化理论的动态行程时间可靠性计算模型研究[J].管理工程学报,2017,31(3):141-148.(Lin Xuxun,Yuan Pengcheng,Huo Liang’an. A dynamic travel time reliability calculation model based on probability density evolution[J]. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management,2017,31(3):141-148.)
[12]Liu Haixu,Pu Yun. Road network capacity reliability based on link travel time reliability[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2004,39(5):573-576.
[13]Chen A,Yang Hai,Lo H K,et al. Capacity reliability of a road network:an assessment methodology and numerical results[J]. Transportation Research Part B Methodological,2002,36(3):225-252.
[14]郭长波,张宁.快速路出口通行能力的可靠性仿真研究[J].系统仿真学报,2003,15(11):1595-1599.(Guo Changbo,Zhang Ning.Simulation study on the road capacity reliability of thruway with exit[J]. Journal of System Simulation,2003,15(11):1595-1599.)
[15]郭洪洋,韩雪松,刘澜,等.驾驶员交通安全行为可靠性风险度量研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(6):103-109.(Guo Hongyang,Han Xuesong,Liu Lan,et al. Study on measuring of drivers’ traffic safety behavior reliability risks[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(6):103-109.)
[16]郭孜政,张殿业,金键,等.机车双司机驾驶行为可靠性研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2007,17(2):162-167,177.(Guo Zizheng,Zhang Dianye,Jin Jian,et al. Study on the reliability of double locomotive drives driving behavior[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2007,17(2):162-167,177.)
[17]Tan Zhijia,Yang Hai,Guo Renyong. Pareto efficiency of reliabilitybased traffic equilibria and risk-taking behavior of travelers[J].Transportation Research Part B Methodological,2014,66(8):16-31.
[18]Uno N,Iida Y,Kawaratani S,et al. An analysis of potential of providing information on traffic accident to enhance travel time reliability[C]//Proc of the 1st International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability. 2003.
[19]袁鹏程,韩印,马万达.基于行程时间可靠性的随机交通网络均衡模型[J].上海理工大学学报,2008,30(4):352-356.(Yuan Pengcheng,Han Yin,Ma Wanda. Stochastic transportation network equilibrium model based on travel-time reliability[J]. Journal of University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,2008,30(4):352-356.)
[20] Chen A,Kasikitwiwat P,Yang Chao. Alternate capacity reliability measures for transportation networks[J]. Journal of Advanced Transportation,2013,47(1):79-104.
[21]Palma A D,Picard N. Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty[J]. Transportation Research Part A Policy&Practice,2005,39(4):295-324.
[22]Lo H K,Luo X W,Siu B W Y. Degradable transport network:travel time budget of travelers with heterogeneous risk aversion[J]. Transportation Research Part B Methodological,2006,40(9):792-806.
[23]Wu Jianjun,Sun Hua,Gao Z Y. Cascading failures on weighted urban traffic equilibrium networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2007,386(1):407-413.
[24]Zheng Jianfeng,Gao Ziyou,Zhao Xiaomei. Modeling cascading failures in congested complex networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2007,385(2):700-706.
[25]Sun Hua,Zhao Hui,Wu Jianjun. A robust matching model of capacity to defense cascading failure on complex networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2008,387(25):6431-6435.
[26]吴建军.城市交通网络拓扑结构复杂性研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2008.(Wu Jianjun. Studies on the complexity of topology structure in the urban traffic network[D]. Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2008.)
[27]王正武,况爱武,王贺杰.考虑级联失效的交通网络节点重要度测算[J].公路交通科技,2012,29(5):96-101,120.(Wang Zhengwu,Kuang Aiwu,Wang Hejie. Calculation of node important degree for traffic network considering cascading failure[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2012,29(5):96-101,120.)
[28]王正武,彭烁,黄中祥,等.城市道路交通网络级联失效的灾害蔓延动力学模型[J].安全与环境学报,2014,14(3):1-4.(Wang Zhengwu,Peng Shuo,Huang Zhongxiang,et al. Disaster sprawling dynamics model for the cascading failure in urban road traffic network[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment,2014,14(3):1-4.)
[29]王芳.基于级联失效的均衡路网脆弱性研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2013.(Wang Fang. Vulnerability of equilibrium road network against cascading failure[D]. Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University,2013.)
[30]陈小兰.城市交通复杂网络级联失效影响源辨识[D].长沙:长沙理工大学,2013.(Chen Xiaolan. Identifying influence factors of cascading failure for urban traffic complex network[D]. Changsha:Changsha University of Science&Technology,2013.)
[31]尹洪英,权小锋.交通运输网络级联失效影响规律及影响范围[J].系统管理学报,2013,22(6):869-875.(Yin Hongying,Quan Xiaofeng. The cascading influence law and influence scope of a failure in transportation networks[J]. Journal of Systems&Management,2013,22(6):869-875.)
[32]徐小洋.面向节点重要性评价的城市道路交通网络失效模型研究[D].北京:北方工业大学,2017.(Xu Xiaoyang. Research on urban road traffic network failure model for node importance evaluation[D]. Beijing:North China University of Technology,2017.)
[33]Kerner B S,Rehborn H,Aleksic M,et al. Recognition and tracking of spatial-temporal congested traffic patterns on freeways[J]. Transportation Research Part C,2004,12(5):369-400.
[34]蔡燕飞.基于交通相特征的交通系统状态识别[D].广州:华南理工大学,2011.(Cai Yanfei. State identification of traffic system based on characteristics of traffic phase[D]. Guangzhou:South China University of Technology,2011.)
[35]袁鹏程,隽志才.区域交通网络行程时间估计的半Markov链模型[J].系统管理学报,2014,23(5):690-697.(Yuan Pengcheng,Juan Zhicai. Semi-Markov chain model for travel time estimation in regional transportation network[J]. Journal of Systems&Management,2014,23(5):690-697.)
[2]马文·劳沙德.系统可靠性理论:模型、统计方法及应用[M]. 2版.北京:国防工业出版社,2010.(Rausand M. System reliability theory:models,statistical methods,and applications[M]. 2nd ed.Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2010.)
[3] Kamm L. Reliability and maintenance[M]. Los Angeles:Social Science Electronic Publishing,2017.
[4]肖雪梅,贾利民.城市轨道交通路网连通可靠度评估模型[J].中国铁道科学,2016,37(1):132-137.(Xiao Xuemei,Jia Liming.Evaluation model for connectivity reliability of urban rail transit network[J]. China Railway Science,2016,37(1):132-137.)
[5]马洪伟,周溪召.随机交通网络渐近连通可靠性分析[J].运筹与管理,2015,24(3):45-50.(Ma Hongwei,Zhou Xizhao. The asymptotic connect reliability analysis of stochastic transportation network[J]. Operations Research and Management Science,2015,24(3):45-50.)
[6] Sun Huijun,Wu Jianjun,Wang Wei,et al. Reliability-based traffic network design with advanced traveler information systems[J]. Information Sciences,2014,287(12):121-130.
[7] Sumalee A,Watling D,Nakayama S. Reliable network design problem:case with uncertain demand and total travel time reliability[J].Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2006,1964(1):81-90.
[8] Bhat C R,Sardesai R. The impact of stop-making and travel time reliability on commute mode choice[J]. Transportation Research Part B Methodological,2006,40(9):709-730.
[9] Clark S,Watling D. Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand[J]. Transportation Research Part B Methodological,2005,39(2):119-140.
[10]Liu H X,Recker W,Chen A. Travel time reliability[M]. Berlin:Springer,2004.
[11]林徐勋,袁鹏程,霍良安.基于概率密度演化理论的动态行程时间可靠性计算模型研究[J].管理工程学报,2017,31(3):141-148.(Lin Xuxun,Yuan Pengcheng,Huo Liang’an. A dynamic travel time reliability calculation model based on probability density evolution[J]. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management,2017,31(3):141-148.)
[12]Liu Haixu,Pu Yun. Road network capacity reliability based on link travel time reliability[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2004,39(5):573-576.
[13]Chen A,Yang Hai,Lo H K,et al. Capacity reliability of a road network:an assessment methodology and numerical results[J]. Transportation Research Part B Methodological,2002,36(3):225-252.
[14]郭长波,张宁.快速路出口通行能力的可靠性仿真研究[J].系统仿真学报,2003,15(11):1595-1599.(Guo Changbo,Zhang Ning.Simulation study on the road capacity reliability of thruway with exit[J]. Journal of System Simulation,2003,15(11):1595-1599.)
[15]郭洪洋,韩雪松,刘澜,等.驾驶员交通安全行为可靠性风险度量研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(6):103-109.(Guo Hongyang,Han Xuesong,Liu Lan,et al. Study on measuring of drivers’ traffic safety behavior reliability risks[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(6):103-109.)
[16]郭孜政,张殿业,金键,等.机车双司机驾驶行为可靠性研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2007,17(2):162-167,177.(Guo Zizheng,Zhang Dianye,Jin Jian,et al. Study on the reliability of double locomotive drives driving behavior[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2007,17(2):162-167,177.)
[17]Tan Zhijia,Yang Hai,Guo Renyong. Pareto efficiency of reliabilitybased traffic equilibria and risk-taking behavior of travelers[J].Transportation Research Part B Methodological,2014,66(8):16-31.
[18]Uno N,Iida Y,Kawaratani S,et al. An analysis of potential of providing information on traffic accident to enhance travel time reliability[C]//Proc of the 1st International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability. 2003.
[19]袁鹏程,韩印,马万达.基于行程时间可靠性的随机交通网络均衡模型[J].上海理工大学学报,2008,30(4):352-356.(Yuan Pengcheng,Han Yin,Ma Wanda. Stochastic transportation network equilibrium model based on travel-time reliability[J]. Journal of University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,2008,30(4):352-356.)
[20] Chen A,Kasikitwiwat P,Yang Chao. Alternate capacity reliability measures for transportation networks[J]. Journal of Advanced Transportation,2013,47(1):79-104.
[21]Palma A D,Picard N. Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty[J]. Transportation Research Part A Policy&Practice,2005,39(4):295-324.
[22]Lo H K,Luo X W,Siu B W Y. Degradable transport network:travel time budget of travelers with heterogeneous risk aversion[J]. Transportation Research Part B Methodological,2006,40(9):792-806.
[23]Wu Jianjun,Sun Hua,Gao Z Y. Cascading failures on weighted urban traffic equilibrium networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2007,386(1):407-413.
[24]Zheng Jianfeng,Gao Ziyou,Zhao Xiaomei. Modeling cascading failures in congested complex networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2007,385(2):700-706.
[25]Sun Hua,Zhao Hui,Wu Jianjun. A robust matching model of capacity to defense cascading failure on complex networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2008,387(25):6431-6435.
[26]吴建军.城市交通网络拓扑结构复杂性研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2008.(Wu Jianjun. Studies on the complexity of topology structure in the urban traffic network[D]. Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2008.)
[27]王正武,况爱武,王贺杰.考虑级联失效的交通网络节点重要度测算[J].公路交通科技,2012,29(5):96-101,120.(Wang Zhengwu,Kuang Aiwu,Wang Hejie. Calculation of node important degree for traffic network considering cascading failure[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2012,29(5):96-101,120.)
[28]王正武,彭烁,黄中祥,等.城市道路交通网络级联失效的灾害蔓延动力学模型[J].安全与环境学报,2014,14(3):1-4.(Wang Zhengwu,Peng Shuo,Huang Zhongxiang,et al. Disaster sprawling dynamics model for the cascading failure in urban road traffic network[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment,2014,14(3):1-4.)
[29]王芳.基于级联失效的均衡路网脆弱性研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2013.(Wang Fang. Vulnerability of equilibrium road network against cascading failure[D]. Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University,2013.)
[30]陈小兰.城市交通复杂网络级联失效影响源辨识[D].长沙:长沙理工大学,2013.(Chen Xiaolan. Identifying influence factors of cascading failure for urban traffic complex network[D]. Changsha:Changsha University of Science&Technology,2013.)
[31]尹洪英,权小锋.交通运输网络级联失效影响规律及影响范围[J].系统管理学报,2013,22(6):869-875.(Yin Hongying,Quan Xiaofeng. The cascading influence law and influence scope of a failure in transportation networks[J]. Journal of Systems&Management,2013,22(6):869-875.)
[32]徐小洋.面向节点重要性评价的城市道路交通网络失效模型研究[D].北京:北方工业大学,2017.(Xu Xiaoyang. Research on urban road traffic network failure model for node importance evaluation[D]. Beijing:North China University of Technology,2017.)
[33]Kerner B S,Rehborn H,Aleksic M,et al. Recognition and tracking of spatial-temporal congested traffic patterns on freeways[J]. Transportation Research Part C,2004,12(5):369-400.
[34]蔡燕飞.基于交通相特征的交通系统状态识别[D].广州:华南理工大学,2011.(Cai Yanfei. State identification of traffic system based on characteristics of traffic phase[D]. Guangzhou:South China University of Technology,2011.)
[35]袁鹏程,隽志才.区域交通网络行程时间估计的半Markov链模型[J].系统管理学报,2014,23(5):690-697.(Yuan Pengcheng,Juan Zhicai. Semi-Markov chain model for travel time estimation in regional transportation network[J]. Journal of Systems&Management,2014,23(5):690-697.)