特朗普政府《导弹防御评估》评析
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摘要
特朗普政府的《导弹防御评估》报告认为美国本土、海外驻军和盟国、盟友正面临来自多个国家日益增加的进攻性导弹威胁。在此基础上,报告试图进行导弹防御顶层设计:着力从技术上改进、调整现有导弹防御系统;重新配置或大量增加机动系统;建设新系统,包括定向能武器、计划部署天基拦截器。特朗普政府希望通过研发、采购和演习,做到攻防一体化与协同性,全面提升导弹防御与进攻能力。评估报告将太空威慑与核威慑相结合,重点威慑中国、俄罗斯的导弹核能力。该报告给正遭受破坏的中美战略平衡平添了变数。
The Trump administration's 2019 Missile Defense Review(MDR) holds that the U.S. homeland, U.S. forces abroad, allies, and partners are facing increasing threats from offensive missiles of many countries. On this basis, the Trump administration adopts a top-down approach to missile defense. It is committed to technically improving and adapting existing systems, relocating or surging mobile systems, building new systems(including directed energy weapons), and planning to deploy space-based interceptors. It hopes to realize the integration and interoperability of offensive and defensive missile systems, and improve their capabilities through research and development, procurement, and exercises. The MDR combines space deterrence with nuclear deterrence, focusing on deterring China's and Russia's missile nuclear capabilities. The review introduces new uncertainty into the strategic balance between China and the United States that is already being undermined.
The Trump administration's 2019 Missile Defense Review(MDR) holds that the U.S. homeland, U.S. forces abroad, allies, and partners are facing increasing threats from offensive missiles of many countries. On this basis, the Trump administration adopts a top-down approach to missile defense. It is committed to technically improving and adapting existing systems, relocating or surging mobile systems, building new systems(including directed energy weapons), and planning to deploy space-based interceptors. It hopes to realize the integration and interoperability of offensive and defensive missile systems, and improve their capabilities through research and development, procurement, and exercises. The MDR combines space deterrence with nuclear deterrence, focusing on deterring China's and Russia's missile nuclear capabilities. The review introduces new uncertainty into the strategic balance between China and the United States that is already being undermined.
引文
(1)参见杨卫丽:《美国国防部<导弹防御审议>报告分析》,《战术导弹技术》2019年第2期,第12-16页;张雪莲:《<导弹防御评估报告>解读》,《电子世界》2019年第7期,第53-54页;吴日强:《新版<导弹防御审议报告>:透出不可抑止的冲动》,《世界知识》2019年第4期,第50-51页。
(2)例如黄志澄:《初评特朗普“新版星球大战计划”》,《第六届航天电子战略研究论坛论文集》,2019年第1期,第23-27页;Sasha Partan,"U.S.Approves Missile Defense Sale to Japan,"Arrms Control today,March 1,2019,https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-03/news-briefs/us-approves-missile-defensesale-japan,访问日期:2019年5月18日;Aaron Mehta,Joe Gould,and Tara Copp,"The Missile Defense Review is Out.Will Congress Fund it,"January 17,2019,https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2019/01/17/the-missile-defense-review-is-out-will-congress-fund-it/,访问日期:2019年5月15日。
(3)美国推进导弹防御建设,无疑会带来军事竞赛,包括反导、高超音速飞行器与太空军备的竞赛,这是学界的一般共识。但是黄志澄则认为特朗普政府的做法可能成为影响世界安全的“灰犀牛”事件。参见黄志澄:《初评特朗普“新版星球大战计划”》。
(4)参见左希迎:《威胁评估与美国大战略的转变》,《当代亚太》2018年第5期,第4-50页。
(1)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,Ⅲ-Ⅳ,https://www.defense.go v/Portals/1/Interactive/2 01 8/11-2019-Missile-Defense-Review/The%2 02 019%20MDR_Executive%2 0Summary.pdf,访问日期:2019年1月20日。
(2)U.S.DoD,Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report 2010,February 2010,pp.4-5,http://archive.defense.gov/bmdr/docs/BMDR%2 0as%2 0of%2 026JAN10%2 0063 0_for%2 0web.pdf,访问日期:2019年1月21日。
(3)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.10-13.
(1)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,p.20.
(2)Sebastien Roblin,"Russia's S-500:The Ultimate Weapon against American Missiles or Paper Tiger?"November 4,2016,https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russias-s-500-the-ultimate-weapons-againstamerican-missiles-18294,访问日期:2019年2月5日。
(3)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.21-22.
(4)U.S.DoD,Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report 2010,pp.7-8.
(1)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.23-24.
(2)U.S.DoD,Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report 2010,p.7.
(3)Tommy Sears,"Trump Sets Goal of Missile Detection'Anywhere,Any Time,Any Place',"January1 8,201 9,https://www.theepochtimes.com/president-trump-announces-new-missile-defense-review_2770296.html,访问日期:2019年2月8日。
(4)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.41-45.
(1)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.45-53.
(2)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.65-76.
(3)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.54-59.
(1)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.32-37.
(2)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,p.60..
(3)Jamie McIntyre,"Trump Reimagines Reagan-era'Star Wars'to Meet 21st Century Missile Threats,"January 1 7,201 9,https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/trump-reimaginesreagan-era-star-wars-to-meet-21 st-century-missile-threats,访问日期2019年2月20日。
(1)U.S.DoD,Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report 2010,p.4.
(1)琼·约翰逊-弗里泽:《空间战争》,叶海林等译,北京:国际文化出版公司,2008年,第114页。
(2)U.S.DoD,Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report 2010,p.23.
(3)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,p.8,p.31.
(1)"Lockheed Martin Invests in Auckland's Rocket Labs,"March 3,2015,https://www.nbr.co.nz/rocket-man,访问日期:2019年2月10日。
(1)邹治波、刘玮:《构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称,性战略平衡的视角》,《国际安全研究》2019年第1期,第41页。
(2)Andrew F.Krepinevich,et al.,"Meeting the Anti-Access and Area Denial Challenge,"CSBA,2003,https://csbaonline.org/u ploads/documents/2 003.05.2 0-Anti-Access-Area-Denial-A2-AD.pdf,访问日期:2019年2月20日。
(3)"China's Anti-Access Area Denial,"August 24,2018,http://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missilethreat-and-prolifer ation/todays-missile-threat/china-anti-access-area-denial-coming-soon,访问日期:2019年2月20日。
(1)Jen Judson,"Hyten:To Address Russian and Chinese Missile Threats,it's All about the Sensors,"August 7,20 1 8,https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailie s/smd/20 1 8/08/0 7/hyten-to-addressrussian-and-chinese-missile-threats-its-all-about-the-sensors,访问日期:2019年2月22日。
(2)Christopher J.McCarthy,"Chinese Anti-Access/Area Denial:The Evolution of Warfare in the Western Pacific,"3 May 2010,p.7,https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a525078.pdf,访问日期:2019年2月26日。
(1)Todd Harrison,et.al.,"Space Threat Assessent 2018,"CSIS Report,April 2018,pp.8-11,https://csisprod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3 fs-public/publication/180823_Harrison_SpaceThreatAssessment_FULL_WEB.pdf?wOHlq5 eiJvbk_7hPbqifSrBNUqZEDfca,访问日期:2019年2月28日。
(2)Daniel Coats,"Worldwide Threat Assessment 2018,"February 13,2018,p.13,https://www.dni.gov/files/d ocuments/N ewsroom/Testimonies/2 018-ATA---Uncla ssified-SS CI.pdf,访问日期:2019年2月28日。
(3)邹治波、刘玮:《构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称性战略平衡的视角》,《国际安全研究》2019年第1期,第47-48页。
(1)在导弹防御评估报告中,美国认为中国部署着75—100枚洲际弹道导弹,携带核弹头的导弹大约125枚(参见报告第12页)。
(2)邹治波、刘玮:《构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称性战略平衡的视角》,《国际安全研究》2019年第1期,第48页。
(2)例如黄志澄:《初评特朗普“新版星球大战计划”》,《第六届航天电子战略研究论坛论文集》,2019年第1期,第23-27页;Sasha Partan,"U.S.Approves Missile Defense Sale to Japan,"Arrms Control today,March 1,2019,https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-03/news-briefs/us-approves-missile-defensesale-japan,访问日期:2019年5月18日;Aaron Mehta,Joe Gould,and Tara Copp,"The Missile Defense Review is Out.Will Congress Fund it,"January 17,2019,https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2019/01/17/the-missile-defense-review-is-out-will-congress-fund-it/,访问日期:2019年5月15日。
(3)美国推进导弹防御建设,无疑会带来军事竞赛,包括反导、高超音速飞行器与太空军备的竞赛,这是学界的一般共识。但是黄志澄则认为特朗普政府的做法可能成为影响世界安全的“灰犀牛”事件。参见黄志澄:《初评特朗普“新版星球大战计划”》。
(4)参见左希迎:《威胁评估与美国大战略的转变》,《当代亚太》2018年第5期,第4-50页。
(1)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,Ⅲ-Ⅳ,https://www.defense.go v/Portals/1/Interactive/2 01 8/11-2019-Missile-Defense-Review/The%2 02 019%20MDR_Executive%2 0Summary.pdf,访问日期:2019年1月20日。
(2)U.S.DoD,Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report 2010,February 2010,pp.4-5,http://archive.defense.gov/bmdr/docs/BMDR%2 0as%2 0of%2 026JAN10%2 0063 0_for%2 0web.pdf,访问日期:2019年1月21日。
(3)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.10-13.
(1)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,p.20.
(2)Sebastien Roblin,"Russia's S-500:The Ultimate Weapon against American Missiles or Paper Tiger?"November 4,2016,https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russias-s-500-the-ultimate-weapons-againstamerican-missiles-18294,访问日期:2019年2月5日。
(3)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.21-22.
(4)U.S.DoD,Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report 2010,pp.7-8.
(1)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.23-24.
(2)U.S.DoD,Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report 2010,p.7.
(3)Tommy Sears,"Trump Sets Goal of Missile Detection'Anywhere,Any Time,Any Place',"January1 8,201 9,https://www.theepochtimes.com/president-trump-announces-new-missile-defense-review_2770296.html,访问日期:2019年2月8日。
(4)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.41-45.
(1)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.45-53.
(2)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.65-76.
(3)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.54-59.
(1)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,pp.32-37.
(2)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,p.60..
(3)Jamie McIntyre,"Trump Reimagines Reagan-era'Star Wars'to Meet 21st Century Missile Threats,"January 1 7,201 9,https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/trump-reimaginesreagan-era-star-wars-to-meet-21 st-century-missile-threats,访问日期2019年2月20日。
(1)U.S.DoD,Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report 2010,p.4.
(1)琼·约翰逊-弗里泽:《空间战争》,叶海林等译,北京:国际文化出版公司,2008年,第114页。
(2)U.S.DoD,Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report 2010,p.23.
(3)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Missile Defense Review 2019,p.8,p.31.
(1)"Lockheed Martin Invests in Auckland's Rocket Labs,"March 3,2015,https://www.nbr.co.nz/rocket-man,访问日期:2019年2月10日。
(1)邹治波、刘玮:《构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称,性战略平衡的视角》,《国际安全研究》2019年第1期,第41页。
(2)Andrew F.Krepinevich,et al.,"Meeting the Anti-Access and Area Denial Challenge,"CSBA,2003,https://csbaonline.org/u ploads/documents/2 003.05.2 0-Anti-Access-Area-Denial-A2-AD.pdf,访问日期:2019年2月20日。
(3)"China's Anti-Access Area Denial,"August 24,2018,http://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missilethreat-and-prolifer ation/todays-missile-threat/china-anti-access-area-denial-coming-soon,访问日期:2019年2月20日。
(1)Jen Judson,"Hyten:To Address Russian and Chinese Missile Threats,it's All about the Sensors,"August 7,20 1 8,https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailie s/smd/20 1 8/08/0 7/hyten-to-addressrussian-and-chinese-missile-threats-its-all-about-the-sensors,访问日期:2019年2月22日。
(2)Christopher J.McCarthy,"Chinese Anti-Access/Area Denial:The Evolution of Warfare in the Western Pacific,"3 May 2010,p.7,https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a525078.pdf,访问日期:2019年2月26日。
(1)Todd Harrison,et.al.,"Space Threat Assessent 2018,"CSIS Report,April 2018,pp.8-11,https://csisprod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3 fs-public/publication/180823_Harrison_SpaceThreatAssessment_FULL_WEB.pdf?wOHlq5 eiJvbk_7hPbqifSrBNUqZEDfca,访问日期:2019年2月28日。
(2)Daniel Coats,"Worldwide Threat Assessment 2018,"February 13,2018,p.13,https://www.dni.gov/files/d ocuments/N ewsroom/Testimonies/2 018-ATA---Uncla ssified-SS CI.pdf,访问日期:2019年2月28日。
(3)邹治波、刘玮:《构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称性战略平衡的视角》,《国际安全研究》2019年第1期,第47-48页。
(1)在导弹防御评估报告中,美国认为中国部署着75—100枚洲际弹道导弹,携带核弹头的导弹大约125枚(参见报告第12页)。
(2)邹治波、刘玮:《构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称性战略平衡的视角》,《国际安全研究》2019年第1期,第48页。