降雨对山丘区小流域洪峰模拟不确定性的影响
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摘要
为探讨降雨对山丘区小流域洪峰模拟不确定性的影响,提高山丘区小流域洪水预报的精度,采用新安江水文模型在河南省栾川流域进行不同降雨误差输入条件下的径流模拟对比分析,并进一步探讨了不同前期土壤干湿程度条件下的降雨输入对洪峰模拟结果的影响及其变化趋势。研究结果表明:山丘区小流域洪峰模拟值的偏差随降雨输入误差的增加而增加,二者呈正相关;随着前期土壤由干到湿变化,对于相同的降雨输入误差,洪峰模拟偏差逐渐变小,且降雨输入偏大程度越大时,这种变小趋势越明显。
To discuss the effect of rainfall on uncertainty of flood peak simulation in small-scale watershed in mountainous areas and improve the accuracy of prediction there,the Xinanjiang Model is chosen as the flood forecasting model in this paper to analyze the runoff simulation under different inputs of rainfall deviation in small mountainous watersheds of Henan Province. It also discusses the influence and rainfall input to flood peak simulation result under the condition of different types of preliminary soil dryness and wetness.The research results indicate that the deviation of simulation value in small-scale watershed in mountainous areas increases with increase in rainfall input deviation,the two presented positive correlations. With the preliminary change of soil from dryness to wetness,the deviation of flood peak simulation was gradually getting smaller compared with the same rainfall input deviation,and the large degree of larger rainfall input is,the more obvious such smaller trend will be.
To discuss the effect of rainfall on uncertainty of flood peak simulation in small-scale watershed in mountainous areas and improve the accuracy of prediction there,the Xinanjiang Model is chosen as the flood forecasting model in this paper to analyze the runoff simulation under different inputs of rainfall deviation in small mountainous watersheds of Henan Province. It also discusses the influence and rainfall input to flood peak simulation result under the condition of different types of preliminary soil dryness and wetness.The research results indicate that the deviation of simulation value in small-scale watershed in mountainous areas increases with increase in rainfall input deviation,the two presented positive correlations. With the preliminary change of soil from dryness to wetness,the deviation of flood peak simulation was gradually getting smaller compared with the same rainfall input deviation,and the large degree of larger rainfall input is,the more obvious such smaller trend will be.
引文
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[9]陈玲玲,陈思睿.西大洋水库降雨径流系列可靠性与一致性分析[J].水科学与工程技术,2016,(3):1-5.
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[2]史晓亮,杨志勇,绪正瑞,等.降雨输入不确定性对分布式流域水文模拟的影响研究[J].水文,2014,34(6):26-32.
[3]尹雄锐,夏军,张翔,等.水文模拟与预测中的不确定性研究现状与展望[J].水力发电,2006,32(10):27-31.
[4]Jene Michaud.Comparison of simple versus complex distributed runoff models on a midsized semiarid watershed[J].Water Resources Research,1994,30(3):593-605.
[5]徐静,任立良,刘晓帆,等.基于模糊集理论的降雨不确定性传播影响研究[J].水科学进展,2009,20(3):422-427.
[6]Chaubey I,Haan C T,Grunwald S.et al.Uncertainty in the model parameters due to spatial variability of rainfall[J].Journal of Hydrology,1999,220(1-2):48-61.
[7]Tong L.Application of Xinanjiang Model in Dongjiang Reservoir Flood Forecast[J].Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy,2005,10:13.
[8]包为民.水文预报[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009.
[9]陈玲玲,陈思睿.西大洋水库降雨径流系列可靠性与一致性分析[J].水科学与工程技术,2016,(3):1-5.
[10]卢韦伟.柘溪流域短期水文预报方法研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2016.
[11]韩通,李致家,刘开磊,等.山区小流域洪水预报实时校正研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2015,43(3):208-214.