华东地区极端降水动力降尺度模拟及未来预估
|
摘要
利用CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)数据集中的全球模式IPSL-CM5A-LR及其嵌套的区域气候模式WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting),分别评估了模式对1981～2000中国华东区域极端降水指标的模拟能力,并讨论了RCP8.5排放情景下21世纪中期(2041～2060年)中国华东极端降水指标的变化特征。相比驱动场全球气候模式,WRF模式更好地再现了各个极端指数空间分布及各子区域降水年周期变化。在模拟区域气候特点方面,WRF模拟结果有所改进,并在弥补全球模式对小雨日过多模拟的缺陷起到了明显的作用。21世纪中期,华东区域的降水将呈现明显的极端化趋势。WRF模拟结果显示年总降雨量、年大雨日数、平均日降雨强度在华东大部分区域的增幅在20%以上;年极端降雨天数、连续5 d最大降水量的增幅在华东北部部分区域分别超过了50%和35%,同时最长续干旱日在华东区域全面增加;且变化显著的格点主要位于增加幅度较大的区域。未来华东区域会出现强降水事件和干旱事件同时增加的情况,降水呈现明显的极端化趋势,且华东北部极端化强于华东南部。
Based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model driven by the global model IPSL-CM5A-LR results that are included in the model output archive of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, this study has assessed the model ability for simulating extreme precipitation indices and analyzed possible future changes in the mid-21 st century(2041-2060) under the RCP8.5 scenario over East China. Results indicate that WRF performs well in the simulation of extreme precipitation indices. Compared with IPSL-CM5A-LR model, WRF model can better reproduce the spatial distribution and annual cycle of precipitation over East China and the sub-regions. In particular, the simulation of regional features is improved in WRF and the problem in global model to overestimate light precipitation has been overcome. Prediction results show that East China will experience an obvious trend of extremeness on precipitation. WRF simulation results show that indices of annual total wet-day precipitation(PRCPTOT), number of heavy precipitation days(R10mm), and simple daily intensity index(SDII) indices in most regions of East China will increase by more than 20%, the increases of extreme wet days(R95d) and max 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) indices in the northern part of East China will be more than 50% and 35%, and consecutive dry days(CDD) overall will increased in East China. Model grids with significant changes are mainly located in areas with large increases. There will be an extremalization in precipitation with increases in both strong precipitation and drought events, and the degree of extremalization is stronger in the north than in the south of East China.
Based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model driven by the global model IPSL-CM5A-LR results that are included in the model output archive of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, this study has assessed the model ability for simulating extreme precipitation indices and analyzed possible future changes in the mid-21 st century(2041-2060) under the RCP8.5 scenario over East China. Results indicate that WRF performs well in the simulation of extreme precipitation indices. Compared with IPSL-CM5A-LR model, WRF model can better reproduce the spatial distribution and annual cycle of precipitation over East China and the sub-regions. In particular, the simulation of regional features is improved in WRF and the problem in global model to overestimate light precipitation has been overcome. Prediction results show that East China will experience an obvious trend of extremeness on precipitation. WRF simulation results show that indices of annual total wet-day precipitation(PRCPTOT), number of heavy precipitation days(R10mm), and simple daily intensity index(SDII) indices in most regions of East China will increase by more than 20%, the increases of extreme wet days(R95d) and max 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) indices in the northern part of East China will be more than 50% and 35%, and consecutive dry days(CDD) overall will increased in East China. Model grids with significant changes are mainly located in areas with large increases. There will be an extremalization in precipitation with increases in both strong precipitation and drought events, and the degree of extremalization is stronger in the north than in the south of East China.
引文
Abbott M L.2016.Independent sample T test[M]//Abbott M L.Using Statistics in the Social and Health Sciences with SPSS?and Excel?.Hoboken,New Jersey:John Wiley&Sons,Inc,207-254.
Alexander L V,Zhang X,Peterson T C,et al.2006.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J].J.Geophys.Res.,111(D5):D05109,doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.
Bao J W,Feng J M,Wang Y L.2015.Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China[J].J.Geophys.Res.,120(16):8227-8243,doi:10.1002/2015JD023275.
Benestad R E,Hanssen-Bauer I,Chen D L.2008.Empirical-Statistical Downscaling[M].Hackensack,NJ:World Scientific Publishing Company,300pp.
Chen F,Dudhia J.2001.Coupling an advanced land surface-hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system.Part I:Model implementation and sensitivity[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,129(4):569-585,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2.
陈红.2014.CMIP5气候模式对中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的模拟性能评估[J].气候与环境研究,19(6):773-786.Chen Hong.2014.Validation of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating decadalvariations of summer rainfall in eastern China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),19(6):773-786,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.13174.
陈活泼.2013.CMIP5模式对21世纪末中国极端降水事件变化的预估[J].科学通报,58(8):743-752.Chen Huopo.2013.Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,58(12):1462-1472,doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5612-2.
Chen L,Frauenfeld O W.2014.A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation simulations over China based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projections[J].J.Geophys.Res.,119(10):5767-5786,doi:10.1002/2013JD021190.
陈晓晨,徐影,姚遥.2015.不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估[J].大气科学,39(6):1123-1135.Chen Xiaochen,Xu Ying,Yao Yao.2015.Changes in climate extremes over China in a 2°C,3°C,and4°C warmer world[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),39(6):1123-1135,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1502.14224.
Collins W D,Rasch P J,Boville B A,et al.2004.Description of the NCARcommunity atmosphere model(CAM 3.0)[R].NCAR Tech.Note NCAR/TN-464+STR,226pp.
Easterling D R,Evans J L,Groisman P Y,et al.2000.Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events:A brief review[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,81(3):417-426,doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0417:OVATIE>2.3.CO;2.
高学杰.2007.中国地区极端事件预估研究[J].气候变化研究进展,3(3):162-166.Gao Xuejie.2007.Researches in projection of extreme events in China[J].Advances in Climate Change Research(in Chinese),3(3):162-166,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2007.03.008.
Gao X,Shi Y,Song R,et al.2008.Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China:Comparison between a high resolution RCMsimulation and the driving GCM[J].Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,100(1-4):73-86,doi:10.1007/s00703-008-0296-5.
Gao Y H,Xue Y K,Peng W,et al.2011.Assessment of dynamic downscaling of the extreme rainfall over East Asia using a regional climate model[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,28(5):1077-1098,doi:10.1007/s00376-010-0039-7.
Gao X J,Shi Y,Zhang D F,et al.2012.Uncertainties in monsoon precipitation projections over China:Results from two high-resolution RCM simulations[J].Climate Research,52:213-226,doi:10.3354/cr01084.
Gao X J,Wang M L,Giorgi F.2013.Climate change over China in the 21st century as simulated by BCC_CSM1.1-RegCM4.0[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,6(5):381-386,doi:10.1080/16742834.2013.11447112.
Guo J H,Huang G H,Wang X Q,et al.2017.Investigating future precipitation changes over China through a high-resolution regional climate model ensemble[J].Earth’s Future,5(3):285-303,doi:10.1002/2016EF000433.
胡海洋,胡轶佳,钟中,等.2015.WRF模式对中国夏季降水的动力降尺度模拟研究[J].气象科学,35(4):413-421.Hu Haiyang,Hu Yijia,Zhong Zhong,et al.2015.Double nested dynamical downscaling research on summer precipitation over China with WRF model[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,35(4):413-421,doi:10.3969/2014jms.0041.
Hong S Y,Noh Y,Dudhia J.2006.A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,134(9):2318-2341,doi:10.1175/MWR3199.1.
Huang D Q,Zhu J,Zhang Y C,et al.2013.Uncertainties on the simulated summer precipitation over eastern China from the CMIP5 models[J].J.Geophys.Res.,118(16):9035-9047,doi:10.1002/jgrd.50695.
IPCC.2013.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M].Stocker T F,Qin D,Plattner G K,et al,Eds.Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press,doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
江志红,陈威霖,宋洁,等.2009.7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估[J].大气科学,33(1):109-120.Jiang Zhihong,Chen Weilin,Song Jie,et al.2009.Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),33(1):109-120,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.01.10.
Jiang Z H,Song J,Li L,et al.2012.Extreme climate events in China:IPCC-AR4model evaluation and projection[J].Climatic Change,110,385-401,doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0090-0.
Jiang Z H,Li W,Xu J J,et al.2015.Extreme precipitation indices over China in CMIP5 models.Part I:Model evaluation[J].J.Climate,28(21):8603-8619,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0099.1.
Kain J S,Fritsch J M.1990.A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization[J].J.Atmos.Sci.,47(23):2784-2802,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<2784:AODEPM>2.0.CO;2.
Knutti R,Furrer R,Tebaldi C,et al.2010.Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models[J].J.Climate,23(10):2739-2758,doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1.
孔祥慧,毕训强.2016.利用区域气候模式对我国南方百年气温和降水的动力降尺度模拟[J].气候与环境研究,21(6):711-724.Kong Xianghui,Bi Xunqiang.2016.Simulation of temperature and precipitation during the last 100 years oversouthern China by a regional climate model[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),21(6):711-724,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16079.
Koo M S,Hong S Y.2010.Diurnal variations of simulated precipitation over East Asia in two regional climate models[J].J.Geophys.Res.,115(D5):D05105,doi:10.1029/2009JD012574.
Li W,Jiang Z H,Xu J J,et al.2016.Extreme precipitation indices over China in CMIP5 models.Part II:Probabilistic projection[J].J Climate,29(24):8989-9004,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0377.1.
Liu S Y,Gao W,Liang X Z.2013.A regional climate model downscaling projection of China future climate change[J].Climate Dyn.,41(7-8):1871-1884,doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1632-5.
Ma J H,Wang H J,Fan K.2015.Dynamic downscaling of summer precipitation prediction over China in 1998 using WRF and CCSM4[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,32(5):577-584,doi:10.1007/s00376-014-4143-y.
彭冬冬,周天军,邹立维,等.2016.FGOALS-g2模式模拟和预估的全球季风区极端降水及其变化[J].大气科学,40(5):1059-1072.Peng Dongdong,Zhou Tianjun,Zou Liwei,et al.2016.The FGOALS-g2simulation of global monsoon extreme precipitation and future projection[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),40(5):1059-1072,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15243.
Qin P H,Xie Z H.2016.Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling[J].J.Geophys.Res.,121(12):6802-6821,doi:10.1002/2016JD024776.
Qin P H,Xie Z H,Yuan X.2013.Incorporating groundwater dynamics and surface/subsurface runoff mechanisms in regional climate modeling over river basins in China[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,30(4):983-996,doi:10.1007/s00376-012-2095-7.
Qin P H,Xie Z H,Wang A W.2014.Detecting changes in precipitation and temperature extremes over China using a regional climate model with water table dynamics considered[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,7(2):103-109,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0060.
Sato T,Xue Y K.2013.Validating a regional climate model’s downscaling ability for East Asian summer monsoonal interannual variability[J].Climate Dyn.,41(9-10):2411-2426,doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1616-5.
Sillmann J,Kharin V V,Zhang X,et al.2013a.Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble:Part 1.Model evaluation in the present climate[J].J.Geophys.Res.,118(4):1716-1733,doi:10.1002/jgrd.50203.
Sillmann J,Kharin V V,Zwiers F W,et al.2013b.Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble:Part 2.Future climate projections[J].J.Geophys.Res.,118(6):2473-2493,doi:10.1002/jgrd.50188.
Sun J Q,Ao J.2013.Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,58(12):1395-1401,doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5542-z.
Sun J Q,Wang H J,Yuan W,et al.2010.Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change[J].J.Geophys.Res.,115(D16):D16110,doi:10.1029/2009JD013541.
Taylor K E,Stouffer R J,Meehl G A.2012.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,93(4):485-498,doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
Wang H J,Sun J Q,Chen H P,et al.2012.Extreme climate in China:Facts,simulation and projection[J].Meteor.Z.,21(3):279-304,doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2012/0330.
王树舟,于恩涛.2013.基于MIROC/WRF嵌套模式的中国气候降尺度模拟[J].气候与环境研究,18(6):681-692.Wang Shuzhou,Yu Entao.2013.Dynamical downscaling simulation over China using the nested MIROC/WRF model[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),18(6):681-692,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.12068.
吴蔚,穆海振,梁卓然,等.2016.CMIP5全球气候模式对上海极端气温和降水的情景预估[J].气候与环境研究,21(3):269-281.Wu Wei,Mu Haizhen,Liang Zhuoran,et al.2016.Projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in Shanghai based on CMIP5simulations[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),21(3):269-281,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.14225.
Xu J Y,Shi Y,Gao X J.2012.Changes in extreme events as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model for the next 20-30 years over China[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,5(6):483-488,doi:10.1080/16742834.2012.11447044.
徐集云,石英,高学杰,等.2013.RegCM3对中国21世纪极端气候事件变化的高分辨率模拟[J].科学通报,58(8):724-733.Xu Jiyun,Shi Ying,Gao Xuejie,et al.2013.Projected changes in climate extremes over China in the 21st century from a high resolution regional climate model(RegCM3)[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,58(12):1443-1452,doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5548-6.
杨金虎,江志红,王鹏祥,等.2008.中国年极端降水事件的时空分布特征[J].气候与环境研究,13(1):75-83.Yang Jinhu,Jiang Zhihong,Wang Pengxiang,et al.2008.Temporal and spatial characteristic of extreme precipitation event in China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),13(1):75-83,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2008.01.10.
You Q L,Kang S C,Aguilar E,et al.2011.Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003[J].Climate Dyn.,36(11-12):2399-2417,doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0735-0.
Yu E T,Sun J Q,Chen H P,et al.2015.Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China:Climatology and extremes[J].Climate Dyn.,45(7-8):2013-2031,doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2452-6.
Yuan X,Liang X Z,Wood E F.2012.WRF ensemble downscaling seasonal forecasts of China winter precipitation during 1982-2008[J].Climate Dyn.,39(7-8):2041-2058,doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1241-8.
Zhai P M,Zhang X B,Wan H,et al.2005.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J].J.Climate,18(7):1096-1108,doi:10.1175/JCLI-3318.1.
Zhang J Y,Wu L Y,Dong W J.2011.Land-atmosphere coupling and summer climate variability over East Asia[J].J.Geophys.Res.,116(D5):D05117,doi:10.1029/2010JD014714.
Zhang Y,Xu Y L,Dong W J,et al.2006.A future climate scenario of regional changes in extreme climate events over China using the PRECISclimate model[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,33(24):L24702,doi:10.1029/2006GL027229.
Zou L W,Zhou T J.2013.Near future(2016-40)summer precipitation changes over China as projected by a regional climate model(RCM)under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario:Comparison between RCMdownscaling and the driving GCM[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,30(3):806-818,doi:10.1007/s00376-013-2209-x.
Alexander L V,Zhang X,Peterson T C,et al.2006.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J].J.Geophys.Res.,111(D5):D05109,doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.
Bao J W,Feng J M,Wang Y L.2015.Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China[J].J.Geophys.Res.,120(16):8227-8243,doi:10.1002/2015JD023275.
Benestad R E,Hanssen-Bauer I,Chen D L.2008.Empirical-Statistical Downscaling[M].Hackensack,NJ:World Scientific Publishing Company,300pp.
Chen F,Dudhia J.2001.Coupling an advanced land surface-hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system.Part I:Model implementation and sensitivity[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,129(4):569-585,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2.
陈红.2014.CMIP5气候模式对中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的模拟性能评估[J].气候与环境研究,19(6):773-786.Chen Hong.2014.Validation of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating decadalvariations of summer rainfall in eastern China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),19(6):773-786,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.13174.
陈活泼.2013.CMIP5模式对21世纪末中国极端降水事件变化的预估[J].科学通报,58(8):743-752.Chen Huopo.2013.Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,58(12):1462-1472,doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5612-2.
Chen L,Frauenfeld O W.2014.A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation simulations over China based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projections[J].J.Geophys.Res.,119(10):5767-5786,doi:10.1002/2013JD021190.
陈晓晨,徐影,姚遥.2015.不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估[J].大气科学,39(6):1123-1135.Chen Xiaochen,Xu Ying,Yao Yao.2015.Changes in climate extremes over China in a 2°C,3°C,and4°C warmer world[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),39(6):1123-1135,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1502.14224.
Collins W D,Rasch P J,Boville B A,et al.2004.Description of the NCARcommunity atmosphere model(CAM 3.0)[R].NCAR Tech.Note NCAR/TN-464+STR,226pp.
Easterling D R,Evans J L,Groisman P Y,et al.2000.Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events:A brief review[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,81(3):417-426,doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0417:OVATIE>2.3.CO;2.
高学杰.2007.中国地区极端事件预估研究[J].气候变化研究进展,3(3):162-166.Gao Xuejie.2007.Researches in projection of extreme events in China[J].Advances in Climate Change Research(in Chinese),3(3):162-166,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2007.03.008.
Gao X,Shi Y,Song R,et al.2008.Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China:Comparison between a high resolution RCMsimulation and the driving GCM[J].Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,100(1-4):73-86,doi:10.1007/s00703-008-0296-5.
Gao Y H,Xue Y K,Peng W,et al.2011.Assessment of dynamic downscaling of the extreme rainfall over East Asia using a regional climate model[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,28(5):1077-1098,doi:10.1007/s00376-010-0039-7.
Gao X J,Shi Y,Zhang D F,et al.2012.Uncertainties in monsoon precipitation projections over China:Results from two high-resolution RCM simulations[J].Climate Research,52:213-226,doi:10.3354/cr01084.
Gao X J,Wang M L,Giorgi F.2013.Climate change over China in the 21st century as simulated by BCC_CSM1.1-RegCM4.0[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,6(5):381-386,doi:10.1080/16742834.2013.11447112.
Guo J H,Huang G H,Wang X Q,et al.2017.Investigating future precipitation changes over China through a high-resolution regional climate model ensemble[J].Earth’s Future,5(3):285-303,doi:10.1002/2016EF000433.
胡海洋,胡轶佳,钟中,等.2015.WRF模式对中国夏季降水的动力降尺度模拟研究[J].气象科学,35(4):413-421.Hu Haiyang,Hu Yijia,Zhong Zhong,et al.2015.Double nested dynamical downscaling research on summer precipitation over China with WRF model[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,35(4):413-421,doi:10.3969/2014jms.0041.
Hong S Y,Noh Y,Dudhia J.2006.A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,134(9):2318-2341,doi:10.1175/MWR3199.1.
Huang D Q,Zhu J,Zhang Y C,et al.2013.Uncertainties on the simulated summer precipitation over eastern China from the CMIP5 models[J].J.Geophys.Res.,118(16):9035-9047,doi:10.1002/jgrd.50695.
IPCC.2013.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M].Stocker T F,Qin D,Plattner G K,et al,Eds.Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press,doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
江志红,陈威霖,宋洁,等.2009.7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估[J].大气科学,33(1):109-120.Jiang Zhihong,Chen Weilin,Song Jie,et al.2009.Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),33(1):109-120,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.01.10.
Jiang Z H,Song J,Li L,et al.2012.Extreme climate events in China:IPCC-AR4model evaluation and projection[J].Climatic Change,110,385-401,doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0090-0.
Jiang Z H,Li W,Xu J J,et al.2015.Extreme precipitation indices over China in CMIP5 models.Part I:Model evaluation[J].J.Climate,28(21):8603-8619,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0099.1.
Kain J S,Fritsch J M.1990.A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization[J].J.Atmos.Sci.,47(23):2784-2802,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<2784:AODEPM>2.0.CO;2.
Knutti R,Furrer R,Tebaldi C,et al.2010.Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models[J].J.Climate,23(10):2739-2758,doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1.
孔祥慧,毕训强.2016.利用区域气候模式对我国南方百年气温和降水的动力降尺度模拟[J].气候与环境研究,21(6):711-724.Kong Xianghui,Bi Xunqiang.2016.Simulation of temperature and precipitation during the last 100 years oversouthern China by a regional climate model[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),21(6):711-724,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16079.
Koo M S,Hong S Y.2010.Diurnal variations of simulated precipitation over East Asia in two regional climate models[J].J.Geophys.Res.,115(D5):D05105,doi:10.1029/2009JD012574.
Li W,Jiang Z H,Xu J J,et al.2016.Extreme precipitation indices over China in CMIP5 models.Part II:Probabilistic projection[J].J Climate,29(24):8989-9004,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0377.1.
Liu S Y,Gao W,Liang X Z.2013.A regional climate model downscaling projection of China future climate change[J].Climate Dyn.,41(7-8):1871-1884,doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1632-5.
Ma J H,Wang H J,Fan K.2015.Dynamic downscaling of summer precipitation prediction over China in 1998 using WRF and CCSM4[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,32(5):577-584,doi:10.1007/s00376-014-4143-y.
彭冬冬,周天军,邹立维,等.2016.FGOALS-g2模式模拟和预估的全球季风区极端降水及其变化[J].大气科学,40(5):1059-1072.Peng Dongdong,Zhou Tianjun,Zou Liwei,et al.2016.The FGOALS-g2simulation of global monsoon extreme precipitation and future projection[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),40(5):1059-1072,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15243.
Qin P H,Xie Z H.2016.Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling[J].J.Geophys.Res.,121(12):6802-6821,doi:10.1002/2016JD024776.
Qin P H,Xie Z H,Yuan X.2013.Incorporating groundwater dynamics and surface/subsurface runoff mechanisms in regional climate modeling over river basins in China[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,30(4):983-996,doi:10.1007/s00376-012-2095-7.
Qin P H,Xie Z H,Wang A W.2014.Detecting changes in precipitation and temperature extremes over China using a regional climate model with water table dynamics considered[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,7(2):103-109,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0060.
Sato T,Xue Y K.2013.Validating a regional climate model’s downscaling ability for East Asian summer monsoonal interannual variability[J].Climate Dyn.,41(9-10):2411-2426,doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1616-5.
Sillmann J,Kharin V V,Zhang X,et al.2013a.Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble:Part 1.Model evaluation in the present climate[J].J.Geophys.Res.,118(4):1716-1733,doi:10.1002/jgrd.50203.
Sillmann J,Kharin V V,Zwiers F W,et al.2013b.Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble:Part 2.Future climate projections[J].J.Geophys.Res.,118(6):2473-2493,doi:10.1002/jgrd.50188.
Sun J Q,Ao J.2013.Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,58(12):1395-1401,doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5542-z.
Sun J Q,Wang H J,Yuan W,et al.2010.Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change[J].J.Geophys.Res.,115(D16):D16110,doi:10.1029/2009JD013541.
Taylor K E,Stouffer R J,Meehl G A.2012.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,93(4):485-498,doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
Wang H J,Sun J Q,Chen H P,et al.2012.Extreme climate in China:Facts,simulation and projection[J].Meteor.Z.,21(3):279-304,doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2012/0330.
王树舟,于恩涛.2013.基于MIROC/WRF嵌套模式的中国气候降尺度模拟[J].气候与环境研究,18(6):681-692.Wang Shuzhou,Yu Entao.2013.Dynamical downscaling simulation over China using the nested MIROC/WRF model[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),18(6):681-692,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.12068.
吴蔚,穆海振,梁卓然,等.2016.CMIP5全球气候模式对上海极端气温和降水的情景预估[J].气候与环境研究,21(3):269-281.Wu Wei,Mu Haizhen,Liang Zhuoran,et al.2016.Projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in Shanghai based on CMIP5simulations[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),21(3):269-281,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.14225.
Xu J Y,Shi Y,Gao X J.2012.Changes in extreme events as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model for the next 20-30 years over China[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,5(6):483-488,doi:10.1080/16742834.2012.11447044.
徐集云,石英,高学杰,等.2013.RegCM3对中国21世纪极端气候事件变化的高分辨率模拟[J].科学通报,58(8):724-733.Xu Jiyun,Shi Ying,Gao Xuejie,et al.2013.Projected changes in climate extremes over China in the 21st century from a high resolution regional climate model(RegCM3)[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,58(12):1443-1452,doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5548-6.
杨金虎,江志红,王鹏祥,等.2008.中国年极端降水事件的时空分布特征[J].气候与环境研究,13(1):75-83.Yang Jinhu,Jiang Zhihong,Wang Pengxiang,et al.2008.Temporal and spatial characteristic of extreme precipitation event in China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),13(1):75-83,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2008.01.10.
You Q L,Kang S C,Aguilar E,et al.2011.Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003[J].Climate Dyn.,36(11-12):2399-2417,doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0735-0.
Yu E T,Sun J Q,Chen H P,et al.2015.Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China:Climatology and extremes[J].Climate Dyn.,45(7-8):2013-2031,doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2452-6.
Yuan X,Liang X Z,Wood E F.2012.WRF ensemble downscaling seasonal forecasts of China winter precipitation during 1982-2008[J].Climate Dyn.,39(7-8):2041-2058,doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1241-8.
Zhai P M,Zhang X B,Wan H,et al.2005.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J].J.Climate,18(7):1096-1108,doi:10.1175/JCLI-3318.1.
Zhang J Y,Wu L Y,Dong W J.2011.Land-atmosphere coupling and summer climate variability over East Asia[J].J.Geophys.Res.,116(D5):D05117,doi:10.1029/2010JD014714.
Zhang Y,Xu Y L,Dong W J,et al.2006.A future climate scenario of regional changes in extreme climate events over China using the PRECISclimate model[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,33(24):L24702,doi:10.1029/2006GL027229.
Zou L W,Zhou T J.2013.Near future(2016-40)summer precipitation changes over China as projected by a regional climate model(RCM)under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario:Comparison between RCMdownscaling and the driving GCM[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,30(3):806-818,doi:10.1007/s00376-013-2209-x.