基于复杂网络边负载分配理论的化工过程级联故障风险传播路径
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摘要
依据复杂网络边负载分配相关理论,建立化工过程级联故障传播理论模型,用于解决化工过程中日益突出的级联故障传播问题。本文首先将化工生产系统抽象成网络模型,对网络中的节点进行重要性排序;其次对网络进行随机攻击并对重要性靠前的节点进行蓄意攻击,求解两种攻击方式下的最高风险传播路径;最后假设其发生边负载故障,根据风险传播路径故障概率对两种攻击方式下的最高风险传播路径进行评估,确定危险性较大的风险传播路径。经案例验证分析表明:该方法可有效确定生产过程中故障发生后的故障传播路径以及风险性较大的路径,为预防化工生产过程中故障传播提供一定的理论依据和决策支持。
In this paper, a cascading fault propagation model for chemical process was established based on the theory of edge load distribution in complex networks, to solve the increasingly prominent problem of cascading fault propagation in chemical process. Firstly, the chemical production system network was abstracted into a network model, and the nodes in the network were sorted in order of importance.Secondly, by randomly attacking the nodes in the network and deliberately attacking the nodes with the higher importance, the maximum risk propagation path under the two kinds attack modes was solved.Finally, assuming that the two maximum risk propagation paths have edge load fault, the highest risk of propagation paths under the two attack modes was evaluated according to the cascading failure probability, confirming the high-risk propagation paths. Results showed that this method can effectively determine the fault propagation path and the higher risk path. It provides certain theoretical basis and decision support for preventing the fault propagation in chemical production.
In this paper, a cascading fault propagation model for chemical process was established based on the theory of edge load distribution in complex networks, to solve the increasingly prominent problem of cascading fault propagation in chemical process. Firstly, the chemical production system network was abstracted into a network model, and the nodes in the network were sorted in order of importance.Secondly, by randomly attacking the nodes in the network and deliberately attacking the nodes with the higher importance, the maximum risk propagation path under the two kinds attack modes was solved.Finally, assuming that the two maximum risk propagation paths have edge load fault, the highest risk of propagation paths under the two attack modes was evaluated according to the cascading failure probability, confirming the high-risk propagation paths. Results showed that this method can effectively determine the fault propagation path and the higher risk path. It provides certain theoretical basis and decision support for preventing the fault propagation in chemical production.
引文
[1]王政,孙锦程,王迎春,等.基于复杂网络理论的符号有向图(SDG)化工故障诊断[J].化工进展, 2016, 35(5):1344-1352.WANG Z, SUN J C, WANG Y C, et al. Research on chemical process signed directed graph(SDG)fault diagnosis based on complex network[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2016, 35(5):1344-1352.
[2]陈雨,韩永明,王尊,等.基于数据复杂网络理论的系统故障检测方法[J].化工学报, 2014, 65(11):4503-4508.CHEN Y, HAN Y M, WANG Z, et al.System fault detection based on data-driven and complex networks theory[J]. CIESC Journal, 2014, 65(11):4503-4508.
[3]耿志强,张玉婷,韩永明.基于AHP的贝叶斯网络故障诊断方法研究[J].北京化工大学学报(自然科学版), 2017, 44(5):99-104.GENG Z Q, ZHANG Y T, HAN Y M. A fault diagnosis method for a Bayesian network based on AHP[J].Journal of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(Natural Science), 2017, 44(5):99-104.
[4]池红卫,张世英,张鹏飞.基于信息融合策略的化工过程故障智能诊断系统的研究[J].化工进展, 2004, 23(2):202-204.CHI H W, ZHANG S Y, ZHANG P F. Research on synthetic intelligent diagnosis system of chemical engineering based on multisensor information fusion policy[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2004, 23(2):202-204.
[5]王再英,白华宁.基于相关系数的过程系统故障检测与诊断方法[J].化工学报, 2013, 64(12):4621-4627.WANG Z Y, BAI H N. Process system fault detection and diagnosis based on correlation[J]. CIESC Journal, 2013, 64(12):4621-4627.
[6]郭金玉,王鑫,李元.基于加权差分主元分析的化工过程故障检测[J].高校化学工程学报, 2018(1):186-196.GUO J Y, WANG X, LI Y. Fault detection in chemical processes using weighted differential principal component analysis[J]. Journal of Chemical Engineering of Chinese Universities, 2018(1):186-196.
[7]石宇,邱彤,陈丙珍.用于化工过程的SDG故障分析方法[J].化工进展, 2006, 25(12):1484-1488.SHI Y, QIU T,CHEN B Z. Fault analysis using process signed directed graph model[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2006, 25(12):1484-1488.
[8]宋泓阳,孙晓岩,项曙光.人工神经网络在化工过程中的应用进展[J].化工进展, 2016, 35(12):3755-3762.SONG H Y,SUN X Y, XIANG S G. Progress on the application of artificial neural network in chemical industry[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2016, 35(12):3755-3762.
[9]刘兰英.模糊多级融合技术在化工故障诊断中的应用[J].无线互联科技, 2016(6):137-139.LIU L Y. Application of fuzzy multilevel fusion to chemical fault diagnosis[J]. Wireless Internet Technology, 2016(6):137-139.
[10] MOTTER A E, LAI Y C. Cascade-based attacks on complex networks[J]. Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics,2002, 66(2):065102.
[11] MOTTER A E. Cascade control and defense in complex networks[J].Physical Review Letters, 2004, 93(9):098701.
[12]史苇杭,林楠.社会网络中基于核函数的信息传播模型[J].计算机应用研究, 2016, 33(9):2735-2737.SHI W H, LIN N. Kernel function based information diffusion model in social networks[J]. Application Research of Computers, 2016, 33(9):2735-2737.
[13]陆晓静,宋玉蓉.基于边移除的智能电网级联故障鲁棒性分析[J].计算机工程, 2018, 44(1):292-298.LU X J, SONG Y R. Analysis of robustness for cascading failure in smart grid based on edge remove[J]. Computer Engineering, 2018, 44(1):292-298.
[14]丁琳,刘莹慧.拓扑对复杂通信网络级联故障传播的影响[J].南华大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 30(4):82-87.DING N, LIU Y H. Impact of Topology on the propagation of cascading failure in complex communication networks[J]. Journal of University of South China(Science and Technology), 2016, 30(4):82-87.
[15] LI Q, LV Y B. Urban rail transit comprehensive performance evaluation research based on improved BSC[C]//International Conference on Electronics, Electrical Engineering and Information Science, 2016:833-840.
[16] CRUCITTI P, LATORA V, MARCHIORI M. Model for cascading failures in complex networks[J]. Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics, 2004, 69(4 Pt 2):045104.
[17] BAO Z J, CAO Y J, DING L J, et al. Dynamics of load entropy during cascading failure propagation in scale-free networks[J]. Physics Letters A, 2008, 372(36):5778-5782.
[18] LEHMANN J, BERNASCONI J. Stochastic load-redistribution model for cascading failure propagation[J]. Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics, 2010, 81(3Pt1):031129.
[19] WANG J W, RONG L L. Cascading failures in scale-free networks with a breakdown probability[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications, 2009, 388(7):1289-1298.
[20] SUN H J, ZHAO H, WU J J. A robust matching model of capacity to defense cascading failure on complex networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications, 2008, 387(25):6431-6435.
[21] WANG J W, RONG L L. Edge-based-attack induced cascading failures on scale-free networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications, 2009, 388(8):1731-1737.
[22] DORIGO M, MANIEZZO V, COLORNI A. Ant system optimization by a colony of cooperating agents[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man,and Cybernetics, Part B:Cybernetics, 1996, 26(1):29-41.
[23]周漩,张凤鸣,李克武,等.利用重要度评价矩阵确定复杂网络关键节点[J].物理学报, 2012, 61(5):1-7.ZHOU X, ZHANG F M, LI K W, et al. Find vital node by node importance evaluation matrix in complex networks[J]. Acta Physics Sinica, 2012, 61(5):1-7.
[24]李树栋.复杂网络级联动力学行为机制研究[D].北京:北京邮电大学, 2012.LI S D. Research on the mechanism of cascading dynamics and behaviors of complex networks[D]. Beijing:Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, 2012.
[25] MIRZASOLEIMAN B, BABAEI M, JALILI M, et al. Cascading failures in weighted networks[J]. Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlonear&Soft Matter Physics, 2011, 84(2):046114.
[26] NING L, XIONG W. SDG-Based HAZOP and fault diagnosis analysis to the inversion of synthetic ammonia[J]. Tsinghua Science&Technology, 2007, 12(1):30-37.
[27]李强,张述伟,廖新文,等.布朗流程合成氨装置一段转化炉故障原因分析与对策[J].大氮肥, 2010, 33(2):73-78.LI Q, ZHANG S W, LIAO X W, et al. Failure analysis and countermeasures of primary reeormerin ammonia plant of brown process technology[J]. Large Scale Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry, 2010, 33(2):73-78.
[28]马志刚,靳明程,陈衍涛,等. HAZOP研究与故障树分析在合成氨装置危险辨识中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术, 2012, 8(10):85-90.MA Z G, JIN M C, CHEN Y T, et al. Application of HAZOP and fault tree analysis(FTA)in hazard identification of ammonia synthesis plant[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2012, 8(10):85-90.
[29]姜英,王政,秦艳,等.基于复杂网络的化工过程层次符号有向图模型建立及关键节点识别[J].化工进展, 2018, 37(2):444-451.JIANG Y, WANG Z, QIN Y, et al. AHP-SDG model establishment and key node identification of chemical process system based on complex network[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress,2018, 37(2):444-451.
[2]陈雨,韩永明,王尊,等.基于数据复杂网络理论的系统故障检测方法[J].化工学报, 2014, 65(11):4503-4508.CHEN Y, HAN Y M, WANG Z, et al.System fault detection based on data-driven and complex networks theory[J]. CIESC Journal, 2014, 65(11):4503-4508.
[3]耿志强,张玉婷,韩永明.基于AHP的贝叶斯网络故障诊断方法研究[J].北京化工大学学报(自然科学版), 2017, 44(5):99-104.GENG Z Q, ZHANG Y T, HAN Y M. A fault diagnosis method for a Bayesian network based on AHP[J].Journal of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(Natural Science), 2017, 44(5):99-104.
[4]池红卫,张世英,张鹏飞.基于信息融合策略的化工过程故障智能诊断系统的研究[J].化工进展, 2004, 23(2):202-204.CHI H W, ZHANG S Y, ZHANG P F. Research on synthetic intelligent diagnosis system of chemical engineering based on multisensor information fusion policy[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2004, 23(2):202-204.
[5]王再英,白华宁.基于相关系数的过程系统故障检测与诊断方法[J].化工学报, 2013, 64(12):4621-4627.WANG Z Y, BAI H N. Process system fault detection and diagnosis based on correlation[J]. CIESC Journal, 2013, 64(12):4621-4627.
[6]郭金玉,王鑫,李元.基于加权差分主元分析的化工过程故障检测[J].高校化学工程学报, 2018(1):186-196.GUO J Y, WANG X, LI Y. Fault detection in chemical processes using weighted differential principal component analysis[J]. Journal of Chemical Engineering of Chinese Universities, 2018(1):186-196.
[7]石宇,邱彤,陈丙珍.用于化工过程的SDG故障分析方法[J].化工进展, 2006, 25(12):1484-1488.SHI Y, QIU T,CHEN B Z. Fault analysis using process signed directed graph model[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2006, 25(12):1484-1488.
[8]宋泓阳,孙晓岩,项曙光.人工神经网络在化工过程中的应用进展[J].化工进展, 2016, 35(12):3755-3762.SONG H Y,SUN X Y, XIANG S G. Progress on the application of artificial neural network in chemical industry[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2016, 35(12):3755-3762.
[9]刘兰英.模糊多级融合技术在化工故障诊断中的应用[J].无线互联科技, 2016(6):137-139.LIU L Y. Application of fuzzy multilevel fusion to chemical fault diagnosis[J]. Wireless Internet Technology, 2016(6):137-139.
[10] MOTTER A E, LAI Y C. Cascade-based attacks on complex networks[J]. Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics,2002, 66(2):065102.
[11] MOTTER A E. Cascade control and defense in complex networks[J].Physical Review Letters, 2004, 93(9):098701.
[12]史苇杭,林楠.社会网络中基于核函数的信息传播模型[J].计算机应用研究, 2016, 33(9):2735-2737.SHI W H, LIN N. Kernel function based information diffusion model in social networks[J]. Application Research of Computers, 2016, 33(9):2735-2737.
[13]陆晓静,宋玉蓉.基于边移除的智能电网级联故障鲁棒性分析[J].计算机工程, 2018, 44(1):292-298.LU X J, SONG Y R. Analysis of robustness for cascading failure in smart grid based on edge remove[J]. Computer Engineering, 2018, 44(1):292-298.
[14]丁琳,刘莹慧.拓扑对复杂通信网络级联故障传播的影响[J].南华大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 30(4):82-87.DING N, LIU Y H. Impact of Topology on the propagation of cascading failure in complex communication networks[J]. Journal of University of South China(Science and Technology), 2016, 30(4):82-87.
[15] LI Q, LV Y B. Urban rail transit comprehensive performance evaluation research based on improved BSC[C]//International Conference on Electronics, Electrical Engineering and Information Science, 2016:833-840.
[16] CRUCITTI P, LATORA V, MARCHIORI M. Model for cascading failures in complex networks[J]. Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics, 2004, 69(4 Pt 2):045104.
[17] BAO Z J, CAO Y J, DING L J, et al. Dynamics of load entropy during cascading failure propagation in scale-free networks[J]. Physics Letters A, 2008, 372(36):5778-5782.
[18] LEHMANN J, BERNASCONI J. Stochastic load-redistribution model for cascading failure propagation[J]. Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics, 2010, 81(3Pt1):031129.
[19] WANG J W, RONG L L. Cascading failures in scale-free networks with a breakdown probability[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications, 2009, 388(7):1289-1298.
[20] SUN H J, ZHAO H, WU J J. A robust matching model of capacity to defense cascading failure on complex networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications, 2008, 387(25):6431-6435.
[21] WANG J W, RONG L L. Edge-based-attack induced cascading failures on scale-free networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications, 2009, 388(8):1731-1737.
[22] DORIGO M, MANIEZZO V, COLORNI A. Ant system optimization by a colony of cooperating agents[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man,and Cybernetics, Part B:Cybernetics, 1996, 26(1):29-41.
[23]周漩,张凤鸣,李克武,等.利用重要度评价矩阵确定复杂网络关键节点[J].物理学报, 2012, 61(5):1-7.ZHOU X, ZHANG F M, LI K W, et al. Find vital node by node importance evaluation matrix in complex networks[J]. Acta Physics Sinica, 2012, 61(5):1-7.
[24]李树栋.复杂网络级联动力学行为机制研究[D].北京:北京邮电大学, 2012.LI S D. Research on the mechanism of cascading dynamics and behaviors of complex networks[D]. Beijing:Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, 2012.
[25] MIRZASOLEIMAN B, BABAEI M, JALILI M, et al. Cascading failures in weighted networks[J]. Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlonear&Soft Matter Physics, 2011, 84(2):046114.
[26] NING L, XIONG W. SDG-Based HAZOP and fault diagnosis analysis to the inversion of synthetic ammonia[J]. Tsinghua Science&Technology, 2007, 12(1):30-37.
[27]李强,张述伟,廖新文,等.布朗流程合成氨装置一段转化炉故障原因分析与对策[J].大氮肥, 2010, 33(2):73-78.LI Q, ZHANG S W, LIAO X W, et al. Failure analysis and countermeasures of primary reeormerin ammonia plant of brown process technology[J]. Large Scale Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry, 2010, 33(2):73-78.
[28]马志刚,靳明程,陈衍涛,等. HAZOP研究与故障树分析在合成氨装置危险辨识中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术, 2012, 8(10):85-90.MA Z G, JIN M C, CHEN Y T, et al. Application of HAZOP and fault tree analysis(FTA)in hazard identification of ammonia synthesis plant[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2012, 8(10):85-90.
[29]姜英,王政,秦艳,等.基于复杂网络的化工过程层次符号有向图模型建立及关键节点识别[J].化工进展, 2018, 37(2):444-451.JIANG Y, WANG Z, QIN Y, et al. AHP-SDG model establishment and key node identification of chemical process system based on complex network[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress,2018, 37(2):444-451.
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