基于SMART模型的中蒙自由贸易区贸易效应研究
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摘要
中蒙两国拥有深厚的贸易合作基础以及较强的贸易互补性。基于2015年中蒙贸易数据,运用SMART模型对构想中的中蒙自由贸易区的贸易效应进行分析,包括对中蒙自由贸易区建设初期和后期可能产生的贸易创造效应、贸易转移效应及关税收入和福利变化进行测算。结果显示:随着关税的降低,中蒙两国大部分产业部门都能产生明显的贸易创造大于贸易转移的效果,并且随着两国降税幅度的加大,贸易效应会明显提升,两国贸易潜力能够得到有效挖掘,但随之而来的关税收入损失和市场冲击的不平衡性不容忽视。
China and Mongolia have strong trade cooperation foundation and trade complementarity. This paper analysis the trade effects of China-Mongolia FTA by SMART model using the trade data of 2015. It simulates and calculates the trade creation effect, trade diversion effect, tariff income and welfare changes that may occur in the early and late stages of the construction of China-Mongolia FTA. The results show that: with the reduction of tariffs, most of the industrial sectors in China and Mongolia can produce significant trade creation effect greater than the effect of trade diversion effect, and with the increase of the extent of tax reduction, the trade effect will be enhanced significantly, the trade potential between China and Mongolia can be explored effectively, but it is not allowed ignore that subsequent loss of tax revenue.
China and Mongolia have strong trade cooperation foundation and trade complementarity. This paper analysis the trade effects of China-Mongolia FTA by SMART model using the trade data of 2015. It simulates and calculates the trade creation effect, trade diversion effect, tariff income and welfare changes that may occur in the early and late stages of the construction of China-Mongolia FTA. The results show that: with the reduction of tariffs, most of the industrial sectors in China and Mongolia can produce significant trade creation effect greater than the effect of trade diversion effect, and with the increase of the extent of tax reduction, the trade effect will be enhanced significantly, the trade potential between China and Mongolia can be explored effectively, but it is not allowed ignore that subsequent loss of tax revenue.
引文
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[6]余振,陈继勇,邱珊.中国—俄罗斯FTA的贸易、关税及福利效应——基于WITS-SMART模型的分析[J].华东经济管理,2014(6):64-68.
[7]余振,沈铭辉,王琼.论中国—印度FTA的贸易基础与经济效应——基于贸易流的实证分析[J].南亚研究,2014(2):12-27.
[8]姚磊.中海自贸区贸易效应研究[D].上海:上海社会科学院,2017.
[9]韩剑,庞值文.中国—加拿大建立自贸区的贸易潜力和福利效应——基于WITS-SMART模拟的实证研究[J].亚太经济,2017(6):64-72.
[10]刘岩.中国潜在自由贸易区伙伴的选择战略:基于贸易效应的局部均衡分析[J].对外经济贸易大学学报,2013(4):15-26.
[11]ARMINGTON P.A Theory of demand for products distinguished by place of origin[Z].IMF Staff Paper,Washington D.C.,1969,16(1):159-178.
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[13]VINER J.The Customs Union Issue[M].New York:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,1950:41-48.
(1)目前世界银行TRAINS数据库缺少蒙古2016年的贸易数据,而2017年的贸易数据不全,故可利用的最新贸易数据为2015年贸易数据,故此以2015年贸易数据为基准分析中蒙自贸区贸易效应。
[2]张婧.中蒙双边贸易合作发展的现状分析与前景研究[J].价格月刊,2015(1):36-37.
[3]LANG R. A partial equilibrium analysis of the impact of the ECOWAS-EU economic partnership agreement[J]. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 2006,34(2):8-28.
[4]AHMED S. India-Japan FTA in goods: a partial and general equilibrium analysis[J]. Goods: A Partial and General Equilibrium Analysis,2010, 39(4):6-12 .
[5]彭支伟,张伯伟.中日韩自由贸易区的经济效应及推进路径[J].世界经济研究,2012(12):65-71.
[6]余振,陈继勇,邱珊.中国—俄罗斯FTA的贸易、关税及福利效应——基于WITS-SMART模型的分析[J].华东经济管理,2014(6):64-68.
[7]余振,沈铭辉,王琼.论中国—印度FTA的贸易基础与经济效应——基于贸易流的实证分析[J].南亚研究,2014(2):12-27.
[8]姚磊.中海自贸区贸易效应研究[D].上海:上海社会科学院,2017.
[9]韩剑,庞值文.中国—加拿大建立自贸区的贸易潜力和福利效应——基于WITS-SMART模拟的实证研究[J].亚太经济,2017(6):64-72.
[10]刘岩.中国潜在自由贸易区伙伴的选择战略:基于贸易效应的局部均衡分析[J].对外经济贸易大学学报,2013(4):15-26.
[11]ARMINGTON P.A Theory of demand for products distinguished by place of origin[Z].IMF Staff Paper,Washington D.C.,1969,16(1):159-178.
[12]JAMMES O,OLARREAGA M.Explaining SMART and GISM[R].World Bank Report,2005:1-2.
[13]VINER J.The Customs Union Issue[M].New York:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,1950:41-48.
(1)目前世界银行TRAINS数据库缺少蒙古2016年的贸易数据,而2017年的贸易数据不全,故可利用的最新贸易数据为2015年贸易数据,故此以2015年贸易数据为基准分析中蒙自贸区贸易效应。