基于MRIO模型的中国省(市)区水足迹测度及空间转移格局
|
摘要
基于2012年中国31个省(市)区的投入产出表,建立水资源扩展型的投入产出模型,测算了中国31个省(市)区的水足迹及水足迹贸易量,并基于省际贸易分析了省(市)区间空间转移格局。结果显示:(1)2012年,中国水足迹总量为4819.3亿m~3,国际贸易净输入水足迹为261.3亿m~3,省际贸易净输出水足迹为801.6亿m~3,省际贸易在全国水足迹贸易中占主导地位。(2)就省(市)区而言,河北、黑龙江等19个省(市)区为净输出省份,北京、天津等12个省(市)区为净输入省份;分产业来看,第一产业水足迹净输出757.9亿m~3;第二产业净输入222.2亿m~3、第三产业净输出4.6亿m~3。(3)省际间水足迹空间转移具有来源与去向的不一致性,同时存在省(市)区转移的地理邻近性,资源丰富省份和经济发达地区转移现象明显。
Based on the input-output table of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) in China in 2012, the water footprint and water footprint trade structure of the provinces in China were calculated and analyzed by establishing the I-O model of water resources expansion, and the spatial transfer pattern of the provinces was analyzed based on the interprovincial trade. The results showed that:(1) In 2012, the total amount of internal water footprint, the net input water footprint of international trade, and the net export water footprint of interprovincial trade were 4819.3×10~8 m~3, 261.3×10~8 m~3, and 801.6×10~8 m~3, respectively. Inter-provincial trade played a leading role in the national water footprint trade.(2) In terms of the provincial-level region, 19 were net output provinces, such as Hebei and Heilongjiang, 12 were net input provinces, such as Beijing and Tianjin. In the view of the industry, the net output water footprint of the primary industry, the net input of the secondary industry, and the net output of the tertiary industry were 757.9×10~8 m~3, 222.2×10~8 m~3, and 4.6×10~8 m~3, respectively.(3) The inter-provincial water footprint spatial transfer has the inconsistency between the source and the destination provinces, the geographical proximity of provincial transfer, and the phenomenon was obvious in resources-rich provinces and economically developed areas.
Based on the input-output table of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) in China in 2012, the water footprint and water footprint trade structure of the provinces in China were calculated and analyzed by establishing the I-O model of water resources expansion, and the spatial transfer pattern of the provinces was analyzed based on the interprovincial trade. The results showed that:(1) In 2012, the total amount of internal water footprint, the net input water footprint of international trade, and the net export water footprint of interprovincial trade were 4819.3×10~8 m~3, 261.3×10~8 m~3, and 801.6×10~8 m~3, respectively. Inter-provincial trade played a leading role in the national water footprint trade.(2) In terms of the provincial-level region, 19 were net output provinces, such as Hebei and Heilongjiang, 12 were net input provinces, such as Beijing and Tianjin. In the view of the industry, the net output water footprint of the primary industry, the net input of the secondary industry, and the net output of the tertiary industry were 757.9×10~8 m~3, 222.2×10~8 m~3, and 4.6×10~8 m~3, respectively.(3) The inter-provincial water footprint spatial transfer has the inconsistency between the source and the destination provinces, the geographical proximity of provincial transfer, and the phenomenon was obvious in resources-rich provinces and economically developed areas.
引文
[1]孙才志,刘淑彬.中国膳食水足迹区域差异及驱动因素分析.人民黄河, 2017, 39(9):39-45, 50.[SUN C Z, LIU S B.The impacts of driving factors and the regional difference of dietary water footprint in China. Yellow River, 2017, 39(9):39-45, 50.]
[2] ALLAN J A. Fortunately there are substitutes for water otherwise our hydro-political futures would be impossible. Priorities for Water Resources Allocation and Management.//London:ODA, 1993.
[3] CHAPAGAIN A K, HOEKSTRA A Y. Water footprints of nations.//Delft, the Netherlands:Value of Water Research Report Series:No.16. IHE, 2004.
[4]程国栋.虚拟水:中国水资源安全战略的新思路.中国科学院院刊, 2003, 18(4):260-265.[CHENG G D. Virtual water:A strategic instrument to achieve water security. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2003, 18(4):260-265.]
[5] DOBOS I, TALLOS P. A dynamic input-output model with renewable resource. Central European Journal of Operations Research, 2013, 21(2):295-305.
[6] HARGREAVES J J, HOBBS C F. Metamodeling of input-output relationships for complex power market models. Energy Systems, 2013, 4(1):25-45.
[7]王晓萌,黄凯,杨顺顺,等.中国产业部门水足迹演变及其影响因素分析.自然资源学报, 2014, 29(12):2114-2126.[WANG X M, HUANG K, YANG S S, et al. Temporal variability and influencing factors of sectoral water footprint in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(12):2114-2126.]
[8] LENZEN M, FORAN B. An input-output analysis of Australian water usage. Water Policy, 2001, 3(4):321-340.
[9] KONDO K. Economic analysis of water resources in Japan:Using factor decomposition analysis based on input-output tables. Environmental Economics&Policy Studies, 2005, 7(2):109-129.
[10] DIETZENBACHER E, VELAZQUEZ E. Analysing Andalusian virtual water trade in an input-output framework. Regional Studies, 2007, 41(2):185-196.
[11] WANG H R, WANG Y. An input-output analysis of virtual water uses of the three economic sectors in Beijing. Water International, 2009, 34:451-467.
[12] YU Y, HUBACEK K, FENG K, et al. Assessing regional and global water footprints for the UK. Ecological Economics,2010, 69(5):1140-1147.
[13]黄晓荣,裴源生,梁川.宁夏虚拟水贸易计算的投入产出方法.水科学进展, 2005, 16(4):564-568.[HUANG X R,PEI Y S, LIANG C. Input-output method for calculating the virtual water trading in Ningxia. Advances in Water Science, 2005, 16(4):564-568.]
[14]赵旭,杨志峰,陈彬.基于投入产出分析技术的中国虚拟水贸易及消费研究.自然资源学报, 2009, 24(2):286-294.[ZHAO X, YANG Z F, CHEN B. Study on Chinese virtual water trade and consumption in an input-output framework.Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(2):286-294.]
[15]蔡振华,沈来新,刘俊国,等.基于投入产出方法的甘肃省水足迹及虚拟水贸易研究.生态学报, 2012, 32(20):6481-6488.[CAI Z H, SHEN L X, LIU J G, et al. Applying input-output analysis method for calculation of water footprint and virtual water trade in Gansu province. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2012, 32(20):6481-6488.]
[16]谭圣林,邱国玉,熊育久.投入产出法在虚拟水消费与贸易研究中的新应用.自然资源学报, 2014, 29(2):355-364.[TAN S L, QIU G Y, XIONG Y J. New application of the input-output framework in the study of virtual water consumption and trade. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(2):355-364.]
[17] HATANO T, OKUDA T. Virtual water analysis on the Yellow River Basin using multi-regional I-Otables. Paper presented at 15th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, 2005, Beijing, China.
[18] LENZEN M. Understanding virtual water flows:A multiregion input-output case study of Victoria. Water Resources Research, 2009, 45(9):416-426.
[19] FENG K S, SIU Y L, GUAN D, et al. Assessing regional virtual water flows and water footprintsin the Yellow River Basin, China:A consumption based approach. Applied Geography, 2012, 32:691-701.
[20] CHAO Z, ANADON L D. A multi-regional input-output analysis of domestic virtual water trade and provincial water footprint in China. Ecological Economics, 2014, 100:159-172.
[21]李方一,刘卫东,刘红光.区域间虚拟水贸易模型及其在山西省的应用.资源科学, 2012, 34(5):802-810.[LI F Y,LIU W D, LIU H G. Inter-regional virtual water trade model andits application in Shanxi province. Resources Science,2012, 34(5):802-810.]
[22]王雪妮.基于区域间投入产出模型的中国虚拟水贸易格局及趋势研究.管理评论, 2014, 26(7):46-54.[WANG X N.Research on distribution and tendency of virtual water trade in China based on inter-regional input-output model. Management Review, 2014, 26(7):46-54.]
[23]曹涛,王赛鸽,陈彬.基于多区域投入产出分析的京津冀地区虚拟水核算.生态学报, 2018, 38(3):788-799.[CAO T,WANG S G, CHEN B. Virtual water analysis for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on multiregional input-output model. Acta Ecologica Sinca, 2018, 38(3):788-799.]
[24]李晨,丛睿,邵桂兰.基于MRIO模型与LMDI方法的中国水产品贸易隐含碳排放转移研究.资源科学, 2018, 40(5):1063-1072.[LI C, CONG R, SHAO G L. Embodied carbon emissions transfer in China aquatic product trade based on MRIO modeling and LMDI methods. Resources Science, 2018, 40(5):1063-1072.]
[25]许健,陈锡康,杨翠红.完全用水系数及增加值用水系数的计算方法.水利水电科技进展, 2003,(2):17-20, 69.[XU J, CHEN X K, YANG C H. Calculating method for total water input coefficient and water input coefficient for added value. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources, 2003,(2):17-20, 69.]
[26]刘冠飞.基于投入产出模型的天津市虚拟水贸易分析.天津:天津大学, 2009.[LIU G F. The analysis of Tianjin's virtual water trade based on input-output model. Tianjin:Tianjin University, 2009.]
[27]石敏俊,王妍,张卓颖,等.中国各省区碳足迹与碳排放空间转移.地理学报, 2012, 67(10):1327-1338.[SHI M J,WANG Y, ZHANG Z Y, et al. Regional carbon footprint and interregional transfer of carbon emissions in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(10):1327-1338.]
[28] OKUDA T, HATANO T, QI S. An estimation of a multi-regional input-output table in China and the analysis. http://www.iioa.org/pdf/Intermediate-2004/399, 2014-01-15.
[29]中华人民共和国水利部.中国水资源公报2012.北京:中国水利水电出版社, 2013.[Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China. Chinese Water Resources Bulletin 2012. Beijing:China Water Power Press, 2013.]
[30]刘雅婷,王赛鸽,陈彬.基于投入产出分析的北京市虚拟水核算.生态学报, 2018, 38(6):1-10.[LIU Y T, WANG S G,CHEN B. Virtual water analysis for Beijing based on input-output modeal. Acta Ecologica Sinca, 2018, 38(6):1-10.]
[31]李凤丽,曲士松,王维平,等. 1997-2012年山东省虚拟水贸易变化及典型区生态环境响应.灌溉排水学报, 2018, 37(2):123-128.[LI F L, QU S S, WANG W P, et al. Changes of virtual water trade of Shandong province in 1997-2012and the ecological environment response of typical areas. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 2018, 37(2):123-128.]
[32]许爽爽,马树才,付云鹏.基于投入产出法的辽宁省水足迹和虚拟水核算.沈阳师范大学学报:自然科学版, 2018,36(1):58-62.[XU S S, MA S C, FU Y P. Calculation of water footprint and virtual water in Liaoning province with input-output analysis model. Journal of Shenyang Normal University:Natural Science Edition, 2018, 36(1):58-62.]
[33]王庆喜,徐维祥.多维距离下中国省际贸易空间面板互动模型分析.中国工业经济, 2014,(3):31-43.[WANG Q X,XU W X. A research on Chinese inter-provincial trade based on spatial panel interaction model under multi-dimensional distances. China Industrial Economics, 2014,(3):31-43.]
[34]赵永亮.国内贸易的壁垒因素与边界效应:自然分割和政策壁垒.南方经济, 2012,(3):13-22, 36.[ZHAO Y L. Domestic trade barriers and border effect-the natural segmentation and policy barriers. South China Journal of Economics,2012,(3):13-22, 36.]
[35]王勇.全行业口径下中国区域间贸易隐含虚拟水的转移测算.中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26(4):107-115.[WANG Y. Virtual water transfer calculation among China's regional trade based on whole industry caliber. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26(4):107-115.]
[36] HOEKSTRA A Y. Virtual water trade:Proceedings of the international expert meeting on virtual water trade//Value of Water Research Report Series No. 12. Delft. The Netherlands:UNESCO-IHE. http://www.Waterfootprint.org/Reports/Report12.pdf, 2003, 2012-04-06.
[2] ALLAN J A. Fortunately there are substitutes for water otherwise our hydro-political futures would be impossible. Priorities for Water Resources Allocation and Management.//London:ODA, 1993.
[3] CHAPAGAIN A K, HOEKSTRA A Y. Water footprints of nations.//Delft, the Netherlands:Value of Water Research Report Series:No.16. IHE, 2004.
[4]程国栋.虚拟水:中国水资源安全战略的新思路.中国科学院院刊, 2003, 18(4):260-265.[CHENG G D. Virtual water:A strategic instrument to achieve water security. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2003, 18(4):260-265.]
[5] DOBOS I, TALLOS P. A dynamic input-output model with renewable resource. Central European Journal of Operations Research, 2013, 21(2):295-305.
[6] HARGREAVES J J, HOBBS C F. Metamodeling of input-output relationships for complex power market models. Energy Systems, 2013, 4(1):25-45.
[7]王晓萌,黄凯,杨顺顺,等.中国产业部门水足迹演变及其影响因素分析.自然资源学报, 2014, 29(12):2114-2126.[WANG X M, HUANG K, YANG S S, et al. Temporal variability and influencing factors of sectoral water footprint in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(12):2114-2126.]
[8] LENZEN M, FORAN B. An input-output analysis of Australian water usage. Water Policy, 2001, 3(4):321-340.
[9] KONDO K. Economic analysis of water resources in Japan:Using factor decomposition analysis based on input-output tables. Environmental Economics&Policy Studies, 2005, 7(2):109-129.
[10] DIETZENBACHER E, VELAZQUEZ E. Analysing Andalusian virtual water trade in an input-output framework. Regional Studies, 2007, 41(2):185-196.
[11] WANG H R, WANG Y. An input-output analysis of virtual water uses of the three economic sectors in Beijing. Water International, 2009, 34:451-467.
[12] YU Y, HUBACEK K, FENG K, et al. Assessing regional and global water footprints for the UK. Ecological Economics,2010, 69(5):1140-1147.
[13]黄晓荣,裴源生,梁川.宁夏虚拟水贸易计算的投入产出方法.水科学进展, 2005, 16(4):564-568.[HUANG X R,PEI Y S, LIANG C. Input-output method for calculating the virtual water trading in Ningxia. Advances in Water Science, 2005, 16(4):564-568.]
[14]赵旭,杨志峰,陈彬.基于投入产出分析技术的中国虚拟水贸易及消费研究.自然资源学报, 2009, 24(2):286-294.[ZHAO X, YANG Z F, CHEN B. Study on Chinese virtual water trade and consumption in an input-output framework.Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(2):286-294.]
[15]蔡振华,沈来新,刘俊国,等.基于投入产出方法的甘肃省水足迹及虚拟水贸易研究.生态学报, 2012, 32(20):6481-6488.[CAI Z H, SHEN L X, LIU J G, et al. Applying input-output analysis method for calculation of water footprint and virtual water trade in Gansu province. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2012, 32(20):6481-6488.]
[16]谭圣林,邱国玉,熊育久.投入产出法在虚拟水消费与贸易研究中的新应用.自然资源学报, 2014, 29(2):355-364.[TAN S L, QIU G Y, XIONG Y J. New application of the input-output framework in the study of virtual water consumption and trade. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(2):355-364.]
[17] HATANO T, OKUDA T. Virtual water analysis on the Yellow River Basin using multi-regional I-Otables. Paper presented at 15th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, 2005, Beijing, China.
[18] LENZEN M. Understanding virtual water flows:A multiregion input-output case study of Victoria. Water Resources Research, 2009, 45(9):416-426.
[19] FENG K S, SIU Y L, GUAN D, et al. Assessing regional virtual water flows and water footprintsin the Yellow River Basin, China:A consumption based approach. Applied Geography, 2012, 32:691-701.
[20] CHAO Z, ANADON L D. A multi-regional input-output analysis of domestic virtual water trade and provincial water footprint in China. Ecological Economics, 2014, 100:159-172.
[21]李方一,刘卫东,刘红光.区域间虚拟水贸易模型及其在山西省的应用.资源科学, 2012, 34(5):802-810.[LI F Y,LIU W D, LIU H G. Inter-regional virtual water trade model andits application in Shanxi province. Resources Science,2012, 34(5):802-810.]
[22]王雪妮.基于区域间投入产出模型的中国虚拟水贸易格局及趋势研究.管理评论, 2014, 26(7):46-54.[WANG X N.Research on distribution and tendency of virtual water trade in China based on inter-regional input-output model. Management Review, 2014, 26(7):46-54.]
[23]曹涛,王赛鸽,陈彬.基于多区域投入产出分析的京津冀地区虚拟水核算.生态学报, 2018, 38(3):788-799.[CAO T,WANG S G, CHEN B. Virtual water analysis for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on multiregional input-output model. Acta Ecologica Sinca, 2018, 38(3):788-799.]
[24]李晨,丛睿,邵桂兰.基于MRIO模型与LMDI方法的中国水产品贸易隐含碳排放转移研究.资源科学, 2018, 40(5):1063-1072.[LI C, CONG R, SHAO G L. Embodied carbon emissions transfer in China aquatic product trade based on MRIO modeling and LMDI methods. Resources Science, 2018, 40(5):1063-1072.]
[25]许健,陈锡康,杨翠红.完全用水系数及增加值用水系数的计算方法.水利水电科技进展, 2003,(2):17-20, 69.[XU J, CHEN X K, YANG C H. Calculating method for total water input coefficient and water input coefficient for added value. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources, 2003,(2):17-20, 69.]
[26]刘冠飞.基于投入产出模型的天津市虚拟水贸易分析.天津:天津大学, 2009.[LIU G F. The analysis of Tianjin's virtual water trade based on input-output model. Tianjin:Tianjin University, 2009.]
[27]石敏俊,王妍,张卓颖,等.中国各省区碳足迹与碳排放空间转移.地理学报, 2012, 67(10):1327-1338.[SHI M J,WANG Y, ZHANG Z Y, et al. Regional carbon footprint and interregional transfer of carbon emissions in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(10):1327-1338.]
[28] OKUDA T, HATANO T, QI S. An estimation of a multi-regional input-output table in China and the analysis. http://www.iioa.org/pdf/Intermediate-2004/399, 2014-01-15.
[29]中华人民共和国水利部.中国水资源公报2012.北京:中国水利水电出版社, 2013.[Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China. Chinese Water Resources Bulletin 2012. Beijing:China Water Power Press, 2013.]
[30]刘雅婷,王赛鸽,陈彬.基于投入产出分析的北京市虚拟水核算.生态学报, 2018, 38(6):1-10.[LIU Y T, WANG S G,CHEN B. Virtual water analysis for Beijing based on input-output modeal. Acta Ecologica Sinca, 2018, 38(6):1-10.]
[31]李凤丽,曲士松,王维平,等. 1997-2012年山东省虚拟水贸易变化及典型区生态环境响应.灌溉排水学报, 2018, 37(2):123-128.[LI F L, QU S S, WANG W P, et al. Changes of virtual water trade of Shandong province in 1997-2012and the ecological environment response of typical areas. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 2018, 37(2):123-128.]
[32]许爽爽,马树才,付云鹏.基于投入产出法的辽宁省水足迹和虚拟水核算.沈阳师范大学学报:自然科学版, 2018,36(1):58-62.[XU S S, MA S C, FU Y P. Calculation of water footprint and virtual water in Liaoning province with input-output analysis model. Journal of Shenyang Normal University:Natural Science Edition, 2018, 36(1):58-62.]
[33]王庆喜,徐维祥.多维距离下中国省际贸易空间面板互动模型分析.中国工业经济, 2014,(3):31-43.[WANG Q X,XU W X. A research on Chinese inter-provincial trade based on spatial panel interaction model under multi-dimensional distances. China Industrial Economics, 2014,(3):31-43.]
[34]赵永亮.国内贸易的壁垒因素与边界效应:自然分割和政策壁垒.南方经济, 2012,(3):13-22, 36.[ZHAO Y L. Domestic trade barriers and border effect-the natural segmentation and policy barriers. South China Journal of Economics,2012,(3):13-22, 36.]
[35]王勇.全行业口径下中国区域间贸易隐含虚拟水的转移测算.中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26(4):107-115.[WANG Y. Virtual water transfer calculation among China's regional trade based on whole industry caliber. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26(4):107-115.]
[36] HOEKSTRA A Y. Virtual water trade:Proceedings of the international expert meeting on virtual water trade//Value of Water Research Report Series No. 12. Delft. The Netherlands:UNESCO-IHE. http://www.Waterfootprint.org/Reports/Report12.pdf, 2003, 2012-04-06.