大坝可接受风险水平确定方法研究
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摘要
F-N曲线法是一种通过直观图解描述风险频率(F)与后果(N)间关系的曲线,常与最低合理可行(as low as reasonably practicable,ALARP)准则相结合来确定社会风险可接受水平。现行方法中存在参数的确定缺乏理论依据、主观性强,且对于不同地区、不同风险类别通用性差等问题。本文针对上述问题提出了融合风险矩阵的改进F-N曲线。通过风险矩阵有效衔接现有风险规范,并提出了风险单元等级划分定性与定量相结合的方法,基于此将风险矩阵转化为F-N曲线。在大坝可接受风险水平研究的基础上,阐述了该方法的具体实现过程,并对比分析了与传统方法的差异和联系,比较结果说明改进后的F-N曲线较传统曲线更加规范、合理,且易于推广应用到其他类型的风险研究与计算中。
A F-N curve is an intuitive curve for describing the relationship between risk frequency(F) and consequence(N), and it is often combined with the as low as reasonably practicable(ALARP) criterion in determination of the acceptable level of social risks. The previous F-N curve methods suffer from several drawbacks, such as lack of theoretical basis, strong subjectivity, and poor generality for different regions or different risk categories. This paper develops an improved F-N curve through combination with a risk matrix. We integrate the risk criteria into a risk matrix and develop a method of rating the matrix elements by qualitative and quantitative evaluation, and then the risk matrix can be transformed into a F-N curve by using this method. To demonstrate its use, acceptable risk levels of water dams are calculated and compared with those of the traditional method. The results show that the improved F-N curve is more standard and more reasonable and is easy to apply to other types of risks.
A F-N curve is an intuitive curve for describing the relationship between risk frequency(F) and consequence(N), and it is often combined with the as low as reasonably practicable(ALARP) criterion in determination of the acceptable level of social risks. The previous F-N curve methods suffer from several drawbacks, such as lack of theoretical basis, strong subjectivity, and poor generality for different regions or different risk categories. This paper develops an improved F-N curve through combination with a risk matrix. We integrate the risk criteria into a risk matrix and develop a method of rating the matrix elements by qualitative and quantitative evaluation, and then the risk matrix can be transformed into a F-N curve by using this method. To demonstrate its use, acceptable risk levels of water dams are calculated and compared with those of the traditional method. The results show that the improved F-N curve is more standard and more reasonable and is easy to apply to other types of risks.
引文
[1]水利部,国家统计局.第一次全国水利普查公报[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2013.Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic of China,State Statistical Bureau.Bulletin of the first national water conservancy survey[M].Beijing:China Water Power Press,2013.(in Chinese)
[2]水电发展“十三五”规划印发建成六大水电基地[J].大坝与安全,2016(6):43."13th Five-year"plan about hydropower development issued and built six major hydropower bases[J].Dam and Safety,2016(6):43.(in Chinese)
[3]顾冲时,苏怀智,刘何稚.大坝服役风险分析与管理研究述评[J].水利学报,2018,49(1):26-35.GU Chongshi,SU Huaizhi,LIU Hezhi.Review on risk analysis and management of dam service[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2018,49(1):26-35.(in Chinese)
[4]DILLEY M.Setting priorities:Global patterns of disaster risk[J].Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A:Mathematical,Physical and Engineering Sciences,2006,364(1845):2217-2229.
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[6]MORSS R E,WILHELMI O V,DOWNTON M W,et al.Flood risk,uncertainty,and scientific information for decision making:Lessons from an interdisciplinary project[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2005,86(11):1593-1601.
[7]PLATE E J.Flood risk and flood management[J].Journal of Hydrology,2002,267(1/2):2-11.
[8]LI K,WU S,DAI E,et al.Flood loss analysis and quantitative risk assessment in China[J].Natural Hazards,2012,63(2):737-760.
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[10]高建明,王喜奎,曾明荣.个人风险和社会风险可接受标准研究进展及启示[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2007,3(3):29-34.GAO Jianming,WANG Xikui,ZENG Mingrong.Research progress and enlightenment on acceptable criteria of personal and social risks[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2007,3(3):29-34.(in Chinese)
[11]COHEN B L,LEE I S.A catalog of risk[J].Health Physics,1979,36:707-722.
[12]周兴波,周建平,杜效鹄,等.我国大坝可接受风险标准研究[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(1):63-72.ZHOU Xingbo,ZHOU Jianping,DU Xiaohu,et al.Study on acceptable risk criteria for dams in China[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2015,34(1):63-72.(in Chinese)
[13]JONKMAN S N,JONGEJAN R,MAASKANT B.The use of individual and societal risk criteria within the Dutch flood safety policy--nationwide estimates of societal risk and policy applications[J].Risk Analysis:An International Journal,2011,31(2):282-300.
[14]NICHOLS T.Industrial safety in Britain and the 1974health and safety at work act-the case of manufacturing[J].International Journal of the Sociology of Law,1990,18(3):317-342.
[15]FISCHHOFF B,LICHTENSTEIN S,SLOVIC P,et al.Acceptable risk[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1983.
[16]岑慧贤,房怀阳,吴群河.可接受风险的界定方法探讨[J].重庆环境科学,2000,22(3):18-19.CEN Huixian,FANG Huaiyang,WU Qunhe.Approach to the definition of acceptable risk[J].Chongqing Environmental Science,2000,22(3):18-19.(in Chinese)
[17]陈伟,许强.地质灾害可接受风险水平研究[J].灾害学,2012,27(1):25-29.CHEN Wei,XU Qiang.Study on acceptable risk level of geological disasters[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2012,27(1):25-29.(in Chinese)
[18]李漾,周昌玉,张伯君.石油化工行业可接受风险水平研究[J].安全与环境学报,2007,7(6):116-119.LI Yang,ZHOU Changyu,ZHANG Bojun.Acceptable risk level in petro chemical industry[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2007,7(6):116-119.(in Chinese)
[19]李宗坤,葛巍,王娟,等.中国水库大坝风险标准与应用研究[J].水利学报,2015,46(5):567-573.LI Zongkun,GE Wei,WANG Juan,et al.China reservoir dam risk standard and application research[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(5):567-573.(in Chinese)
[20]宋敬衖,何鲜峰.我国溃坝生命风险分析方法探讨[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2008,36(5):628-633.SONG Jingya,HE Xianfeng.Discussion on the life risk analysis method of dam break in China[J].Journal of Hehai University(Natural Science Edition),2008,36(5):628-633.(in Chinese)
[21]Health,Safety Executive.The tolerability of risk from nuclear power stations[M].London:HMSO,1992.
[22]杜效鹄,杨健.我国水电站大坝溃坝生命风险标准讨论[J].水力发电,2010,36(5):68-70.DU Xiaohu,YANG Jian.Discussion on life risk criteria for dam break of hydropower stations in China[J].Water Power,2010,36(5):68-70.(in Chinese)
[23]NI H H,CHEN A,CHEN N.Some extensions on risk matrix approach[J].Safety Science,2010,48(10):1269-1278.
[24]MARKOWSKI A S,MANNAN M S.Fuzzy risk matrix[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2008,159(1):152-157.
[25]刘莉,谢礼立,胡进军.城市地震的可接受死亡风险研究[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(4):1-7.LIU Li,XIE Lili,HU Jinjun.Study on acceptable death risk of urban earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2010,19(4):1-7.(in Chinese)
[26]张杰.基于风险可接受水平的规划环境风险评价[D].兰州:兰州大学,2010.ZHANG Jie.Planning environmental risk assessment based on acceptable level of risk[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2010.(in Chinese)
[27]黄宏伟.隧道及地下工程建设中的风险管理研究进展[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):13-20.HUANG Hongwei.Research progress on risk management in tunnel and underground engineering construction[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2006,2(1):13-20.(in Chinese)
[28]肖义,郭生练,熊立华,等.大坝安全评价的可接受风险研究与评述[J].安全与环境学报,2005,5(3):90-94.XIAO Yi,GUO Shenglian,XIONG Lihua,et al.Research and comment on acceptable risk of dam safety assessment[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2005,5(3):90-94.(in Chinese)
[2]水电发展“十三五”规划印发建成六大水电基地[J].大坝与安全,2016(6):43."13th Five-year"plan about hydropower development issued and built six major hydropower bases[J].Dam and Safety,2016(6):43.(in Chinese)
[3]顾冲时,苏怀智,刘何稚.大坝服役风险分析与管理研究述评[J].水利学报,2018,49(1):26-35.GU Chongshi,SU Huaizhi,LIU Hezhi.Review on risk analysis and management of dam service[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2018,49(1):26-35.(in Chinese)
[4]DILLEY M.Setting priorities:Global patterns of disaster risk[J].Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A:Mathematical,Physical and Engineering Sciences,2006,364(1845):2217-2229.
[5]HALL J W,DAWSON R J,SAYERS P B,et al.Amethodology for national-scale flood risk assessment[C]//Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Water Maritime and Engineering.London:Published for the Institution of Civil Engineers by Thomas Telford Ltd,c2000-c2003,2003,156(3):235-248.
[6]MORSS R E,WILHELMI O V,DOWNTON M W,et al.Flood risk,uncertainty,and scientific information for decision making:Lessons from an interdisciplinary project[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2005,86(11):1593-1601.
[7]PLATE E J.Flood risk and flood management[J].Journal of Hydrology,2002,267(1/2):2-11.
[8]LI K,WU S,DAI E,et al.Flood loss analysis and quantitative risk assessment in China[J].Natural Hazards,2012,63(2):737-760.
[9]李宝岩.可接受风险标准研究[D].镇江:江苏大学,2010.LI Baoyan.Study on acceptable risk criteria[D].Zhenjing:Jiangsu University,2010.(in Chinese)
[10]高建明,王喜奎,曾明荣.个人风险和社会风险可接受标准研究进展及启示[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2007,3(3):29-34.GAO Jianming,WANG Xikui,ZENG Mingrong.Research progress and enlightenment on acceptable criteria of personal and social risks[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2007,3(3):29-34.(in Chinese)
[11]COHEN B L,LEE I S.A catalog of risk[J].Health Physics,1979,36:707-722.
[12]周兴波,周建平,杜效鹄,等.我国大坝可接受风险标准研究[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(1):63-72.ZHOU Xingbo,ZHOU Jianping,DU Xiaohu,et al.Study on acceptable risk criteria for dams in China[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2015,34(1):63-72.(in Chinese)
[13]JONKMAN S N,JONGEJAN R,MAASKANT B.The use of individual and societal risk criteria within the Dutch flood safety policy--nationwide estimates of societal risk and policy applications[J].Risk Analysis:An International Journal,2011,31(2):282-300.
[14]NICHOLS T.Industrial safety in Britain and the 1974health and safety at work act-the case of manufacturing[J].International Journal of the Sociology of Law,1990,18(3):317-342.
[15]FISCHHOFF B,LICHTENSTEIN S,SLOVIC P,et al.Acceptable risk[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1983.
[16]岑慧贤,房怀阳,吴群河.可接受风险的界定方法探讨[J].重庆环境科学,2000,22(3):18-19.CEN Huixian,FANG Huaiyang,WU Qunhe.Approach to the definition of acceptable risk[J].Chongqing Environmental Science,2000,22(3):18-19.(in Chinese)
[17]陈伟,许强.地质灾害可接受风险水平研究[J].灾害学,2012,27(1):25-29.CHEN Wei,XU Qiang.Study on acceptable risk level of geological disasters[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2012,27(1):25-29.(in Chinese)
[18]李漾,周昌玉,张伯君.石油化工行业可接受风险水平研究[J].安全与环境学报,2007,7(6):116-119.LI Yang,ZHOU Changyu,ZHANG Bojun.Acceptable risk level in petro chemical industry[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2007,7(6):116-119.(in Chinese)
[19]李宗坤,葛巍,王娟,等.中国水库大坝风险标准与应用研究[J].水利学报,2015,46(5):567-573.LI Zongkun,GE Wei,WANG Juan,et al.China reservoir dam risk standard and application research[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(5):567-573.(in Chinese)
[20]宋敬衖,何鲜峰.我国溃坝生命风险分析方法探讨[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2008,36(5):628-633.SONG Jingya,HE Xianfeng.Discussion on the life risk analysis method of dam break in China[J].Journal of Hehai University(Natural Science Edition),2008,36(5):628-633.(in Chinese)
[21]Health,Safety Executive.The tolerability of risk from nuclear power stations[M].London:HMSO,1992.
[22]杜效鹄,杨健.我国水电站大坝溃坝生命风险标准讨论[J].水力发电,2010,36(5):68-70.DU Xiaohu,YANG Jian.Discussion on life risk criteria for dam break of hydropower stations in China[J].Water Power,2010,36(5):68-70.(in Chinese)
[23]NI H H,CHEN A,CHEN N.Some extensions on risk matrix approach[J].Safety Science,2010,48(10):1269-1278.
[24]MARKOWSKI A S,MANNAN M S.Fuzzy risk matrix[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2008,159(1):152-157.
[25]刘莉,谢礼立,胡进军.城市地震的可接受死亡风险研究[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(4):1-7.LIU Li,XIE Lili,HU Jinjun.Study on acceptable death risk of urban earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2010,19(4):1-7.(in Chinese)
[26]张杰.基于风险可接受水平的规划环境风险评价[D].兰州:兰州大学,2010.ZHANG Jie.Planning environmental risk assessment based on acceptable level of risk[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2010.(in Chinese)
[27]黄宏伟.隧道及地下工程建设中的风险管理研究进展[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):13-20.HUANG Hongwei.Research progress on risk management in tunnel and underground engineering construction[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2006,2(1):13-20.(in Chinese)
[28]肖义,郭生练,熊立华,等.大坝安全评价的可接受风险研究与评述[J].安全与环境学报,2005,5(3):90-94.XIAO Yi,GUO Shenglian,XIONG Lihua,et al.Research and comment on acceptable risk of dam safety assessment[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2005,5(3):90-94.(in Chinese)
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