基于FN曲线的水上污染事故风险评估方法研究
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摘要
水上石油运输的快速增加将导致船舶污染海洋环境事故的风险逐年加大,制定有效的风险降低措施来减少事故的风险显得十分必要。科学的水上污染事故风险可接受标准可以为水上污染事故的风险管理和决策制定提供良好的理论依据。文章对目前船舶污染海洋环境风险评价技术进行了分析探讨,结合水上污染事故风险的特点,提出了利用FN曲线来确定水上污染事故可接受标准的方法,并选择合适ALARP边界的确定方法。通过对舟山地区的船舶污染风险评估验证计算,得出基于FN曲线的水上污染事故风险评估方法可以更好的表达风险可接受水平以及污染量与水上污染事故频率之间的关系,更好地提供评价结论,为管理者提供决策依据。
The increasing risk of marine environmental accidents caused by ship pollution year by year is due to the rapid development of oil transportation industry. It is necessary to formulate effective risk reduction measures to reduce the risk of accidents. Good theoretical basis for risk management and decision-making of water pollution accidents was provided by scientific acceptance criteria. In this paper, the current marine environmental risk assessment technology for ship pollution was analyzed and discussed. The method which based on FN curve to determine the acceptance criteria for water pollution accidents was proposed combined with the characteristics of the risk of water pollution accidents, and the method to determine the appropriate ALARP boundary was selected. The case analysis takes the ship pollution risk in Zhoushan area as an example, the conclusion that the risk assessment method based on FN curve can better express the acceptable level of risk and the relationship between pollution amount and frequency of water pollution accident was drawn, it can also be better referred to by managers and put forward evaluation conclusions and decision-making basis.
The increasing risk of marine environmental accidents caused by ship pollution year by year is due to the rapid development of oil transportation industry. It is necessary to formulate effective risk reduction measures to reduce the risk of accidents. Good theoretical basis for risk management and decision-making of water pollution accidents was provided by scientific acceptance criteria. In this paper, the current marine environmental risk assessment technology for ship pollution was analyzed and discussed. The method which based on FN curve to determine the acceptance criteria for water pollution accidents was proposed combined with the characteristics of the risk of water pollution accidents, and the method to determine the appropriate ALARP boundary was selected. The case analysis takes the ship pollution risk in Zhoushan area as an example, the conclusion that the risk assessment method based on FN curve can better express the acceptable level of risk and the relationship between pollution amount and frequency of water pollution accident was drawn, it can also be better referred to by managers and put forward evaluation conclusions and decision-making basis.
引文
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[13]GB/T 27921-2011,风险管理风险评估技术[S].
[14]张英,武志峰.化工企业风险可接受标准研究[J].安全、健康和环境,2012,12(5):1-4.ZHANG Y,WU Z F.Research on Risk Acceptable Criteria of Chemical Enterprise[J].Safety Health & Environment,2012,12(5):1-4.
[15]张凤丽.基于ALARP原则的油船溢油事故定量风险评估标准的研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2011.
[16]Downes S Aksu.Formal Safety Assessment:Comments on the Correspondence Group report on Environmental Risk Evaluation Criteria Submitted by Japan[R].Japan:International Maritime Organization,2010.
[17]陈慧阳,牟瑞芳.基于FN曲线的交通事故风险可接受水平研究[J].综合运输,2016,38(6):60-63.CHEN H Y,MOU R F.Accept Risk Level of Traffic Accident Based on FN Curve Research[J].China Transportation Review,2016,38(6):60-63.
[2]张宝晨.港航特大安全风险与防控[J].水道港口,2018,39(2):238-242.ZHANG B C.Major safety risk and risk control measure in port and shipping industry[J].Journal of Waterway and Harbor,2018,39(2):238-242.
[3]刘红.船舶溢油风险评估方法的探讨[J].中国海事,2010(1):44-46.LIU H.Discussion on the Methodology of Ship-source Oil Spill Risk Assessment[J].China Maritime Safety,2010(1):44-46.
[4]许欢,李适宇.海上溢油事故风险评价回顾与展望[J].环境保护,2005(8):50-52.XU H,LI S Y.Retrospect and Prospect of Ocean Oil Risk Assessment[J].Environmental Protection,2005(8):50-52.
[5]HSE.The tolerability of risk from unclear power stations [R].London:Her Majesty′s Stationery Office,1988.
[6]Jonkman S N,Van Gelder P H A J M,Vrijling J K.An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2003,99(1) :1-30.
[7]AGS.Practice note guidelines for landslide risk management 2007[J].Australian Geomechanics,2007,42(1):64-114.
[8]李漾,周昌玉,张伯君.石油化工行业可接受风险水平研究[J].安全与环境学报,2007(6):116-119.LI Y,ZHOU C Y,ZHANG B J.Study on acceptable level of risk in petrochemical industry[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2007(6):116-119.
[9]程亮,张杨.基于F-N曲线的顶板事故风险接受准则研究[J].煤,2011,20(7):14-16.CHENG L,ZHANG Y.Risk Acceptance Criteria Application for Roof Accident based on F-N Cvrve[J].Coal,2011,20(7):14-16.
[10]周兴波,周建平.我国大坝可接受风险标准研究[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(1):63-72.ZHOU X B,ZHOU J P.Study on risk acceptance criteria for dams in China[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2015,34(1):63-72.
[11]Jingjing Pei,Guantao Wang.Societal risk acceptance criteria for pressure pipelines in China.[J].Safety Science,2018,109:20-26.
[12]李典庆,唐文勇,张圣坤.海洋工程风险接受准则研究进展[J].海洋工程,2003(2):96-102.LI D Q,TANG W Y,ZHANG S K.Review of risk acceptance criteria for ocean engineering[J].The Ocean Engineering,2003(2):96-102.
[13]GB/T 27921-2011,风险管理风险评估技术[S].
[14]张英,武志峰.化工企业风险可接受标准研究[J].安全、健康和环境,2012,12(5):1-4.ZHANG Y,WU Z F.Research on Risk Acceptable Criteria of Chemical Enterprise[J].Safety Health & Environment,2012,12(5):1-4.
[15]张凤丽.基于ALARP原则的油船溢油事故定量风险评估标准的研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2011.
[16]Downes S Aksu.Formal Safety Assessment:Comments on the Correspondence Group report on Environmental Risk Evaluation Criteria Submitted by Japan[R].Japan:International Maritime Organization,2010.
[17]陈慧阳,牟瑞芳.基于FN曲线的交通事故风险可接受水平研究[J].综合运输,2016,38(6):60-63.CHEN H Y,MOU R F.Accept Risk Level of Traffic Accident Based on FN Curve Research[J].China Transportation Review,2016,38(6):60-63.
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