考虑弹性裕度的城市输电网安全概率评估
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摘要
为评估计及风电出力和电动汽车负荷随机性的城市输电网运行安全,提出了一种以高压配电网重构为手段的220kV输电网安全概率评估模型。基于相关变量的联合概率分布得到含电动汽车的负荷概率模型描述负荷的波动性,定义弹性安全距离作为安全裕度评估指标,将可用传输容量与拓扑结构结合起来刻画输电网的安全裕度;然后利用三点估计法将不确定性评估问题转化成确定性数学问题求解,再用Cornish-Fisher展开级数得到评估结果的概率特性。最后以某城市局部高压配电系统为算例验证模型的有效性,算例结果表明,高压配电网重构产生弹性裕度是提高城市输电网安全概率的有效调节方式,评估结果可为实际电网调度提供决策依据。
In order to evaluate safety of urban transmission network under randomness of wind power output and electric vehicle load, a probabilistic security model is proposed based on reconfiguration of HV distribution network. A load probabilistic model describing load fluctuation is derived based on joint probabilistic distribution of correlative variables, and resilient steady distance is defined as its index, combining available transmission capacity and topology. Then the uncertainty problem is transformed into a deterministic mathematical problem with the three-point estimation method, and Cornish-Fisher expansion series is used to obtain the probabilistic properties of evaluation results. Simulation results show that the proposed evaluation model is effective and provides reliable indicators for operational decision making.
In order to evaluate safety of urban transmission network under randomness of wind power output and electric vehicle load, a probabilistic security model is proposed based on reconfiguration of HV distribution network. A load probabilistic model describing load fluctuation is derived based on joint probabilistic distribution of correlative variables, and resilient steady distance is defined as its index, combining available transmission capacity and topology. Then the uncertainty problem is transformed into a deterministic mathematical problem with the three-point estimation method, and Cornish-Fisher expansion series is used to obtain the probabilistic properties of evaluation results. Simulation results show that the proposed evaluation model is effective and provides reliable indicators for operational decision making.
引文
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[12]洪敏,章雷其,迟方德,等.适用于弱电网的双馈风电机组新型故障穿越控制方法[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(10):44-50.Hong Min,Zhang Leiqi,Chi Fangde,et al.Control method for fault ride-through of DFIG-based wind turbines applied to weak grids[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(10):44-50(in Chinese).
[13]蔡德福,钱斌,陈金富,等.含电动汽车充电负荷和风电的电力系统动态概率特性分析[J].电网技术,2013,37(3):590-596.Cai Defu,Qian Bin,Chen Jinfu,et al.Analysis on dynamic probabilistic of power grid connected with electric vehicle charging load and wind power[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(3):590-596(in Chinese).
[14]金勇,刘俊勇,李红伟,等.基于功率流的混合配电网潮流计算方法[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(1):15-27.Jin Yong,Liu Junyong,Li Hongwei,et al.Hybrid power-flow calculation based on power flow for distribution network[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(1):15-27(in Chinese).
[15]范婷婷,杜松怀,刘科研,等.计及输入变量相关性的有源配电网可靠性概率评估三点估计法[J].电网技术,2017,41(7):2324-2331.Fan Tingting,Du Songhuai,Liu Keyan,et al.Probabilistic reliability evaluation of active distribution network based on three-point estimate method considering correlation of input variables[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(7):2324-2331(in Chinese).
[16]芦晶晶,赵渊,赵勇帅,等.含分布式电源配电网可靠性评估的点估计法[J].电网技术,2013,37(8):2250-2257.Lu Jingjing,Zhao Yuan,Zhao Yongshuai,et al.A point estimation method for reliability evaluation of distribution network with distributed generation[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(8):2250-2257(in Chinese).
[17]韦婷婷,王主丁,寿挺,等.基于DG并网运行的中压配网可靠性评估实用方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(10):3006-3012.Wei Tingting,Wang Zhuding,Shou Ting,et al.A practical reliability assessment method of distribution systems with grid connected DGs[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(10):3006-3012(in Chinese).
[18]Julio U.Probabilistic load flow with wind production uncertainty using cumulates and Cornish-Fisher expansion[J].Electrical Power and Energy Systems,2009(31):474-481.
[19]周建华,袁越.含风电场电力系统的Cornish-Fisher级数概率潮流计算[J].电动自动化设备,2011,31(12):68-71.Zhou Jianhua,Yuan Yue.Probabilistic load flow calculation based on Cornish-Fisher expansion for power system with wind farm[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2011,31(12):68-71(in Chinese).
[20]张曦,吕林,金勇,等.基于高压配电网变电单元分组重构的城市电网输电阻塞管控模型及算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(20):5403-5413.Zhang Xi,LüLin,Jin Yong,et al.Congestion mitigation model and algorithm for urban power grids considering reconfigurability of highvoltage distribution transformer unit groups[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(20):5403-5413(in Chinese).
[21]张谦,唐飞,刘涤尘,等.计及电动汽车充电和负荷波动极限的电力系统静态电压稳定性评估方案[J].电网技术,2017,41(6):1888-1895.Zhang Qian,Tang Fei,Liu Dichen,et al.A static voltage stability assessment scheme of electric power systems considering charging state of plug-in electric vehicles and load fluctuation limits[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(6):1888-1895(in Chinese).
[22]周念成,熊希聪,王强钢.多种类型电动汽车接入配电网的充电负荷概率模拟[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(2):1-7.Zhou Niancheng,Xiong Xicong,Wang Qianggang.Simulation of charging load probability for connection of different electric vehicles to distribution network[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(2):1-7(in Chinese).
[2]金勇,刘友波,刘俊勇,等.基于转供逻辑约束的城市电网运行阻塞控制模型[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(23):77-85.Jin Yong,Liu Youbo,Liu Junyong,et al.Operation congestion management model for urban power grids based on load transfer logical constraints[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(23):77-85(in Chinese).
[3]张曦,刘友波,吕林,等.计及高压配电网负荷转供的城市220kV片区电网供电能力分析[J].电网技术,2017,41(5):1612-1618.Zhang Xi,Liu Youbo,LüLin,et al.Total supply capability analysis of urban 220 kV area power system considering load transfer capability of HV distribution network[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(5):1612-1618(in Chinese).
[4]柳杰,刘志刚,孙婉璐,等.含风电场电力系统电压稳定性概率评估及其在无功优化中的应用[J].电网技术,2012,36(11):134-139.Liu Jie,Liu Zhigang,Sun Wanlu,et al.Probability assessment on voltage stability of power grid containing wind farms and its application in reactive power optimization[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(11):134-139(in Chinese).
[5]王敏,丁明.考虑分布式电源的静态电压稳定概率评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2010,30(25):17-22.Wang Min,Ding Ming.Probabilistic evaluation of static voltage stability taking account of distributed generation[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2010,30(25):17-22(in Chinese).
[6]Yan Ou,Chanan Singh.Assessment of available transfer capability and margins[J].IEEE Transactions on Power System,2002,17(2):463-468.
[7]吴耀武,蔡芝菁,娄素华,等.考虑电网负载均衡度的输电网规划模型[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2013,41(12):96-100.Wu Yaowu,Cai Zhijing,Lou Suhua,et al.Transmission network expansion planning model considering network load balance[J].Huazhong Univ.of Sci.&Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2013,41(12):96-100(in Chinese).
[8]刘文颖,蔡万通,张宁,等.基于联合加权熵的电网自组织临界状态演化[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(6):1363-1370.Liu Wenying,Cai Wantong,Zhang Ning,et al.Evolution of selforganizing of grid critical state based on united weighted entropy theory[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(6):1363-1370(in Chinese).
[9]陈思捷,陈启鑫,夏清.静态安全距离:概念,模型和意义[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(3):600-608.Chen Sijie,Chen Qixin,Xia Qing.Steady-state security distance:concept,model and meaning[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(3):600-608(in Chinese).
[10]戎晓雪,别朝红,石文辉,等.考虑风电场相关性的含风电电力系统随机潮流分析[J].电网技术,2014,38(8):2161-2167.Rong Xiaoxue,Bie Zhaohong,Shi Wenhui,et al.Analysis on probabilistic load flow in power grid integrated with wind farms considering correlativity among different wind farms[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(8):2161-2167(in Chinese).
[11]王锐,顾伟,孙蓉,等.基于概率最优潮流的风电接入能力分析[J].电网技术,2011,35(12):214-220.Wang Rui,Gu Wei,Sun Rong,et al.Analysis on wind power penetration limit based on probabilistically optimal power flow[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(12):214-220(in Chinese).
[12]洪敏,章雷其,迟方德,等.适用于弱电网的双馈风电机组新型故障穿越控制方法[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(10):44-50.Hong Min,Zhang Leiqi,Chi Fangde,et al.Control method for fault ride-through of DFIG-based wind turbines applied to weak grids[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(10):44-50(in Chinese).
[13]蔡德福,钱斌,陈金富,等.含电动汽车充电负荷和风电的电力系统动态概率特性分析[J].电网技术,2013,37(3):590-596.Cai Defu,Qian Bin,Chen Jinfu,et al.Analysis on dynamic probabilistic of power grid connected with electric vehicle charging load and wind power[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(3):590-596(in Chinese).
[14]金勇,刘俊勇,李红伟,等.基于功率流的混合配电网潮流计算方法[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(1):15-27.Jin Yong,Liu Junyong,Li Hongwei,et al.Hybrid power-flow calculation based on power flow for distribution network[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(1):15-27(in Chinese).
[15]范婷婷,杜松怀,刘科研,等.计及输入变量相关性的有源配电网可靠性概率评估三点估计法[J].电网技术,2017,41(7):2324-2331.Fan Tingting,Du Songhuai,Liu Keyan,et al.Probabilistic reliability evaluation of active distribution network based on three-point estimate method considering correlation of input variables[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(7):2324-2331(in Chinese).
[16]芦晶晶,赵渊,赵勇帅,等.含分布式电源配电网可靠性评估的点估计法[J].电网技术,2013,37(8):2250-2257.Lu Jingjing,Zhao Yuan,Zhao Yongshuai,et al.A point estimation method for reliability evaluation of distribution network with distributed generation[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(8):2250-2257(in Chinese).
[17]韦婷婷,王主丁,寿挺,等.基于DG并网运行的中压配网可靠性评估实用方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(10):3006-3012.Wei Tingting,Wang Zhuding,Shou Ting,et al.A practical reliability assessment method of distribution systems with grid connected DGs[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(10):3006-3012(in Chinese).
[18]Julio U.Probabilistic load flow with wind production uncertainty using cumulates and Cornish-Fisher expansion[J].Electrical Power and Energy Systems,2009(31):474-481.
[19]周建华,袁越.含风电场电力系统的Cornish-Fisher级数概率潮流计算[J].电动自动化设备,2011,31(12):68-71.Zhou Jianhua,Yuan Yue.Probabilistic load flow calculation based on Cornish-Fisher expansion for power system with wind farm[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2011,31(12):68-71(in Chinese).
[20]张曦,吕林,金勇,等.基于高压配电网变电单元分组重构的城市电网输电阻塞管控模型及算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(20):5403-5413.Zhang Xi,LüLin,Jin Yong,et al.Congestion mitigation model and algorithm for urban power grids considering reconfigurability of highvoltage distribution transformer unit groups[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(20):5403-5413(in Chinese).
[21]张谦,唐飞,刘涤尘,等.计及电动汽车充电和负荷波动极限的电力系统静态电压稳定性评估方案[J].电网技术,2017,41(6):1888-1895.Zhang Qian,Tang Fei,Liu Dichen,et al.A static voltage stability assessment scheme of electric power systems considering charging state of plug-in electric vehicles and load fluctuation limits[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(6):1888-1895(in Chinese).
[22]周念成,熊希聪,王强钢.多种类型电动汽车接入配电网的充电负荷概率模拟[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(2):1-7.Zhou Niancheng,Xiong Xicong,Wang Qianggang.Simulation of charging load probability for connection of different electric vehicles to distribution network[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(2):1-7(in Chinese).
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