应用GPD模型估算设计冰厚误差影响分析
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摘要
本文主要选用4个有长期覆冰观测资料的站点,应用GPD模型,选取历年大于门限值的标准冰厚组成30年和任意5~15年的覆冰样本;统计多样本覆冰标准冰厚在不同重现期下的设计冰厚;对大、小容量样本计算结果比较及误差分析,从而为应用短期观冰资料对线路不同重现期覆冰的科学定量估计提供解决方法。
Based on the long-term icing observation data of the four sites,we filter the samples of 30 years and 5 to 15 years of the standard icing thickness which is more than the threshold value and tally the design icing thickness of the multi-sample standard icing thickness under different return periods.Then the comparison of calculation results and error analysis of large and small sample size is operated.By this way,we can provide an application of short-term icing observation data in the icing determination under different return periods and the resolvent of scientific quantitative estimation of icing in the return period.
Based on the long-term icing observation data of the four sites,we filter the samples of 30 years and 5 to 15 years of the standard icing thickness which is more than the threshold value and tally the design icing thickness of the multi-sample standard icing thickness under different return periods.Then the comparison of calculation results and error analysis of large and small sample size is operated.By this way,we can provide an application of short-term icing observation data in the icing determination under different return periods and the resolvent of scientific quantitative estimation of icing in the return period.
引文
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[2]丁裕国,江志红.极端气候研究方法导论[M].北京:气象出版社,2010.
[3]Meehl G A,et al.An introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events:observations,socioeconomic impacts,terrestrial ecological impacts,and model projections[J].Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society,2000,81(3).
[4]Easterlling D R,et al.Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events:a brief review[J].Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society,2000,81(3).
[5]曹深西,陈子燊.广东沿海的极值风速概率分布研究[J].海洋通报,2013,32(1).
[6]荣艳淑,等.淮河流域极端降水与极端流量关系的研究[J]河海大学学报(自然科学版),2012,40(1).
[7]徐文军,等.冰风暴灾害下电力断线倒塔的概率计算[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(1).
[8]陆益锰,等.输电线路覆冰厚度的概率分布模型比较分析[J].四川建筑,2015,(2).
[9]刘冬.导线覆冰极值的概率分布模拟及其应用试验[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2010.
[10]江志红,等.导线覆冰极值的概率分布模拟及其应用试验[J].大气科学学报,2010,33(4).