地铁站密集人群应急疏散能力分析模型及仿真
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摘要
为保障地铁站正常运营和安全,对地铁站密集人群应急疏散的目标和约束条件进行剖析,进而构建地铁站密集人群应急疏散能力分析模型;然后运用Pathfinder软件构建地铁站密集人群应急疏散能力仿真系统,并以武汉A地铁站为例进行实景再现仿真,分析武汉A地铁站密集人群应急疏散能力和瓶颈。仿真结果表明,A地铁站疏散时间远超过最佳逃生时间360s,存在疏散能力不匹配、疏散设备不足、疏散不均衡等问题。针对A地铁站缺陷,提出相应的改进措施,并进行相同初始条件下的仿真验证。
To ensure the normal operation and safety of metro stations,the objectives and constraints of the evacuation for the crowds at metro station are analyzed,and an evacuation capacity model for crowds under emergency conditions is built.Then it used Pathfinder software to build an emergency evacuation capability simulation system for dense crowds in subway stations,taking Wuhan A metro station as an example to reproduce actual simulation,analyzed the crowds emergency evacuation capacity and bottlenecks.The simulation results show that the evacuation time of A metro station is more than the best time to escape(360 s),existing such defects as evacuation capability mismatching,evacuation equipment lacking,evacuation imbalance and etc.Finally,the corresponding improvement measures are put forward and verified through simulation under the same conditions.
To ensure the normal operation and safety of metro stations,the objectives and constraints of the evacuation for the crowds at metro station are analyzed,and an evacuation capacity model for crowds under emergency conditions is built.Then it used Pathfinder software to build an emergency evacuation capability simulation system for dense crowds in subway stations,taking Wuhan A metro station as an example to reproduce actual simulation,analyzed the crowds emergency evacuation capacity and bottlenecks.The simulation results show that the evacuation time of A metro station is more than the best time to escape(360 s),existing such defects as evacuation capability mismatching,evacuation equipment lacking,evacuation imbalance and etc.Finally,the corresponding improvement measures are put forward and verified through simulation under the same conditions.
引文
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[2]张俭让,王江艳,董丁稳,等.基于优化定权与灰色聚类的人流密集场所应急疏散能力评价[J].西安科技大学学报,2014,34(4):451-456.
[3]朱广宇,张静萱,陈建均,等.城市轨道交通车站火灾情况下客流疏散能力评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(10):35-40.
[4]ZHANG L,LIU M,WU X,et al.Simulation-based route planning for pedestrian evacuation in metro stations:a case study[J].Automation in Construction,2016(71):430-442.
[5]王以恒.基于BP神经网络算法的北京市地铁站应急疏散能力仿真评估模型[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(1):5-10.
[6]俞峰,李荣钧.基于集对分析的飞机客舱安全疏散能力评估[J].消防科学与技术,2012,31(4):425-427.
[7]HELBING D,FARKAS I J,MOLNAR P,et al.Simulation of pedestrian crowds in normal and evacuation situations[J].Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics,2002,21(2):21-58.
[8]AIRAULT V,ESPIE S,LATTAUD C,et al.Interaction between pedestrians and their environment when roadcrossing:a behavioural approach[C]∥Proceedings of the 24th Urban Data Management Symposium.[s.l.]:[s.n.],2004:102-113.
[9]RONCHI E.Testing the predictive capabilities of evacuation models for tunnel fire safety analysis[J].Safety Science,2013(59):141-153.
[10]刘朝峰,郭小东,李岩峰.基于智能优化的应急疏散道路自主评价模型[J].工业建筑,2016,46(6):25-28.
[11]王燕青,周红月.民机客舱安全疏散能力模糊综合评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(9):165-169.
[12]王永明,周磊山,刘铁民.非常规突发事件中的区域路网疏散能力评估与交通组织方案设计[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(8):1608-1616.
[13]任常兴,吴宗之,刘茂.城市公共场所人群拥挤踩踏事故分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2005,15(12):102-106.
[14]陈绍宽,刘爽,肖雄,等.基于M/G/c/c模型的地铁车站楼梯通道疏散能力瓶颈分析[J].铁道学报,2012,34(1):7-12.
[15]吴薇薇,宁宣熙.基于改善紧急疏散网络流通能力的仿真研究[J].中国管理科学,2006,14(3):86-91.
[16]胡凯,段中兴.岛式站台地铁车站人员的安全疏散仿真研究[J].计算机工程与应用,2014,50(15):261-266.
[17]马嘉琪,梁青槐,周芳.基于微观仿真的城市轨道交通同站台换乘站客流疏散能力研究[J].城市轨道交通研究,2011,14(2):98-102.
[18]高明霞.基于双层规划的交通疏散中车辆出发与交通控制综合优化[J].中国管理科学,2014,22(12):65-71.
[19]史聪灵,钟茂华,刘智成,等.与体育场馆连接地铁车站大客流输运能力计算模拟分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(3):34-41.
[20]卢文龙.城市轨道交通应急疏散的研究[D].北京:中国铁道科学研究院,2012.
[21]王振.城市公共场所人群聚集风险理论及应用研究[D].天津:南开大学,2007.