高寒地区1961—2017年无霜期及其积温变化特征
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摘要
为有效防御和减轻霜冻灾害对高寒贵南地区农牧业生产的影响,为合理开展农牧业气候区划提供可靠依据。利用青海省高寒地区贵南县气象局观测的1961—2017年逐日最低气温、平均气温资料,采用线性倾向估计、M-K突变分析等方法,对高寒地区贵南县霜冻初日、终日、无霜期及同时期积温变化特征进行分析。结果表明:1961—2017年高寒地区贵南县≤0℃霜冻的终日呈极显著的提前趋势,初日呈显著的后延趋势,终日提前的幅度大于初日后延的幅度;无霜期呈现极显著延长趋势,无霜期积温呈现极显著的升高趋势。霜冻终日在1972年发生了提前突变,霜冻初日和无霜期在1970年发生了延迟突变,无霜期积温在1977年发生了升高突变。
The paper aims to effectively prevent and mitigate the impact of frost disaster on agricultural production in high-cold region of Guinan, Qinghai, and provide a reliable basis for reasonable development of agricultural climate regionalization. Based on data of daily average air temperature and daily minimum temperature of Guinan meteorological station from 1961 to 2017, by using linear tendency estimation and M-K mutation analysis, several elements were analyzed, including the first frost date, the last frost date, the frostfree period, and the accumulated temperature of the frost-free period. The results showed that the first frost date displayed a significantly delayed trend, and the last frost date had a significantly early trend, and the change range of the last frost date was higher than that of the first frost date. The frost-free period presented a significantly extending trend, and the accumulated temperature of the frost-free period significantly increased.The last frost date was abruptly ahead of schedule in 1972, the first frost date and the frost-free period had an abrupt delay in 1970, and the accumulated temperature of the frost-free period increased abruptly in 1977.
The paper aims to effectively prevent and mitigate the impact of frost disaster on agricultural production in high-cold region of Guinan, Qinghai, and provide a reliable basis for reasonable development of agricultural climate regionalization. Based on data of daily average air temperature and daily minimum temperature of Guinan meteorological station from 1961 to 2017, by using linear tendency estimation and M-K mutation analysis, several elements were analyzed, including the first frost date, the last frost date, the frostfree period, and the accumulated temperature of the frost-free period. The results showed that the first frost date displayed a significantly delayed trend, and the last frost date had a significantly early trend, and the change range of the last frost date was higher than that of the first frost date. The frost-free period presented a significantly extending trend, and the accumulated temperature of the frost-free period significantly increased.The last frost date was abruptly ahead of schedule in 1972, the first frost date and the frost-free period had an abrupt delay in 1970, and the accumulated temperature of the frost-free period increased abruptly in 1977.
引文
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[24]吴云龙,李丽平,王书冰,等.近53年石家庄地区气温稳定通过10℃的农业气候资源变化特征[J].气象科技,2015,43(5):945-951.
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[2]丁文魁,杨晓玲,殷玉春,等.武威市初、终霜日气候特征[J].气象科技,2016,44(4):647-652.
[3]李辑,严晓瑜,王颖.辽宁省近50年霜的气候变化特征[J].气象,2010,36(11):38-45.
[4]李凤云,王玉山,吴泽新,等.鲁西北霜日期变化特征及防御措施[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2010,46(Z1):126-128.
[5]叶殿秀,张勇.1961—2017年我国霜冻变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(6):661-665.
[6]张霞,钱锦霞,靳宁.山西北部初终霜日特征及其对农业的影响[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(22):348-351.
[7]梁进秋,贾莉芳,何正梅.大同市近50年霜冻及其异常事件变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(Z1):123-128.
[8]杨荣珍,朱伟军,岳艳霞,等.石家庄市霜冻期的气候异常特征分析[J].气象与减灾研究,2010,34(2):67-70.
[9]陈芳,汪青春,殷万秀.青海省近45年霜冻变化特征及其对主要作物的影响[J].气象科技,2009,37(1):35-41.
[10]严应存,周秉荣,陈国茜.1961—2010年青海省霜冻灾害变化特征及风险区划[J].气象科技,2015,45(5):986-991.
[11]刘义花,周强,鲁延荣,等.湟水河流域近50年来农业气候资源变化[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(12):163-170.
[12]钟存,魏鹏.贵南县油菜种植的气候条件分析[J].安徽农学通报,2011,17(14):255-256.
[13]钟存,魏鹏.贵南县气候变化对农作物的影响[J].贵州农业科学,2010(2):75-79.
[14]钟存,贾生玉,魏鹏,等.贵南县农业气象灾害演变特征研究[J].宁夏农林科技,2014(12):46.
[15]马鹏飞,杜军,杜晓辉.1981—2014年西藏0℃界限温度变化趋势的时空分布[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(8):147-153.
[16]张玉书,班显秀,纪瑞鹏,等.辽宁省气候资源分析[J].气象科技,2004,32(1):39-43.
[17]竺可桢,宛敏渭.物候学(增订版)[M].北京:科学出版社,1980.
[18]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007(6):37-59.
[19]吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2005:208-244.
[20]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
[21]马国柱.中国北方地区霜日的变化与区域增暖相互关系[J].地理学报,2003,589(S1):31-37.
[22]张山清,普宗朝,李景林,等.气候变暖背景下新疆无霜冻期时空变化分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(9):1908-1916.
[23]张霞,钱锦霞.气候变暖背景下太原市霜冻发生特征及其对农业的影响[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):111-114.
[24]吴云龙,李丽平,王书冰,等.近53年石家庄地区气温稳定通过10℃的农业气候资源变化特征[J].气象科技,2015,43(5):945-951.
[25]杨晓光,刘志娟,陈阜.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响:VI.未来气候变化对中国种植制度北界的可能影响[J].中国农业科学,2011,44(8):1562-1570.