黑龙江省旱作玉米生产降水利用效率潜力演变特征
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摘要
研究旱作玉米降水利用效率潜力可反映降水对其产量的贡献,对作物布局具有重要意义。利用黑龙江省80个气象站1961—2017年逐日气象资料及玉米生育期和产量资料,运用EOF经验正交函数、小波分析及数理统计方法,分析了旱作玉米降水利用效率潜力时空演变特征。结果显示:1961—2017年玉米降水利用效率潜力总体呈现阶段性微升态势,振幅为33～59 kg/(hm~2·mm),且依次存在28,15,5,8 a周期变化,1961—1979年和1992—1998年为上升阶段、1980—1991年和1999—2017年为下降阶段;玉米降水利用效率潜力空间分布高值中心以黑河—齐齐哈尔东南部—大庆—哈尔滨—双鸭山—佳木斯—伊春为闭合区域,高值为黑河的五大连池,低值中心在大兴安岭地区的呼玛北部地及牡丹江市的宁安一带,高值区域内玉米降水利用效率潜力振幅变化稳定,其他区域以高值区域为中心向外侧逐渐递减;玉米降水利用效率潜力齐齐哈尔东南部—大庆—哈尔滨闭合区域尚有30～50 kg/(hm~2·mm)潜力可以挖掘,在大兴安岭地区的呼中以北地区可挖掘潜力不足10 kg/(hm~2·mm)。不同的玉米种植区域,可采取合理密植、保墒耕作、适时施肥等措施提高玉米降水利用效率潜力。
Study on the precipitation use efficiency potentiality of maize can reflect the contribution of precipitation to its output and is of great significance to crop distribution. Based on the daily meteorological data of 80 weather stations from 1961 to 2017, maize growth period data and maize yield data, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the precipitation use efficiency potentiality of maize in dry farming area were analyzed by using the methods of Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF), wavelet transformation analysis and mathematical statistics. The results showed that the evolution characteristics of the precipitation use efficiency potentiality of maize presented a phase micro rise situation from 1961 to 2017. The amplitude was 33～59 kg/(hm~2·mm), and there were 28-year, 15-year, 5-year and 8-year periodic changes, respectively. It can be divided into two stages. The rising stages were observed from 1961 to 1979 and from 1992 to 1998, respectively, while decreasing stages occurred from 1980 to 1991 and from 1999 to 2017, respectively. The high value area of the precipitation use efficiency potentiality of maize was a closed area. The approximate location includes Heihe, southeastern Qiqihar, Daqing, Harbin, Qitaihe, Shuangyashan, Jiamusi, Hegang and Yichun. The maximum value was observed in Wudalianchi, Heihe. The low value center is located in the northern part of Huma, Greater Khingan Range, and Ning′an District, Mudanjiang. In the high-value area, the amplitude of the precipitation use efficiency potentiality was stable, while in the other regions, it gradually decreased from the high-value region to the outward side. The precipitation use efficiency potentiality of maize can improved with a potential of 30～50 kg/(hm~2·mm) in the closed area surrounded by the Southeast Qiqihar, Daqing and Harbin. But in the northern region of Greater Khingan Range, the potential promotion is less than 10 kg/(hm~2·mm). In different maize planting areas, the precipitation use efficiency potentiality of maize can be improved by adopting dense planting, soil moisture conservation tillage, timely fertilization and so on.
Study on the precipitation use efficiency potentiality of maize can reflect the contribution of precipitation to its output and is of great significance to crop distribution. Based on the daily meteorological data of 80 weather stations from 1961 to 2017, maize growth period data and maize yield data, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the precipitation use efficiency potentiality of maize in dry farming area were analyzed by using the methods of Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF), wavelet transformation analysis and mathematical statistics. The results showed that the evolution characteristics of the precipitation use efficiency potentiality of maize presented a phase micro rise situation from 1961 to 2017. The amplitude was 33～59 kg/(hm~2·mm), and there were 28-year, 15-year, 5-year and 8-year periodic changes, respectively. It can be divided into two stages. The rising stages were observed from 1961 to 1979 and from 1992 to 1998, respectively, while decreasing stages occurred from 1980 to 1991 and from 1999 to 2017, respectively. The high value area of the precipitation use efficiency potentiality of maize was a closed area. The approximate location includes Heihe, southeastern Qiqihar, Daqing, Harbin, Qitaihe, Shuangyashan, Jiamusi, Hegang and Yichun. The maximum value was observed in Wudalianchi, Heihe. The low value center is located in the northern part of Huma, Greater Khingan Range, and Ning′an District, Mudanjiang. In the high-value area, the amplitude of the precipitation use efficiency potentiality was stable, while in the other regions, it gradually decreased from the high-value region to the outward side. The precipitation use efficiency potentiality of maize can improved with a potential of 30～50 kg/(hm~2·mm) in the closed area surrounded by the Southeast Qiqihar, Daqing and Harbin. But in the northern region of Greater Khingan Range, the potential promotion is less than 10 kg/(hm~2·mm). In different maize planting areas, the precipitation use efficiency potentiality of maize can be improved by adopting dense planting, soil moisture conservation tillage, timely fertilization and so on.
引文
[1]李秀芬,赵慧颖,朱海霞,等.黑龙江省玉米气候生产力演变及其对气候变化的响应[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(8):2561-2570.
[2]刘化涛,黄学芳,池宝亮,等.春玉米不同品种耗水特征及水分利用率差异分析研究[J].节水灌溉,2017(4):11-14,18.
[3]魏欢欢,王仕稳,杨文稼,等.免耕及深松耕对黄土高原地区春玉米和冬小麦产量及水分利用率影响的整合分析[J].中国农业科学,2017,50(3):461-473.
[4]李玉玲,张鹏,张艳,等.旱区集雨种植方式对土壤水分、温度的时空变化及春玉米产量的影响[J].中国农业科学,2016,49(6):1084-1096.
[5]战秀梅,宋涛,冯小杰,等.耕作及秸秆还田对辽南地区土壤水分及春玉米水分利用效率的影响[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2017,48(6):666-672.
[6]刘志娟,杨晓光,吕硕,等.气候变化背景下东北三省春玉米产量潜力的时空特征[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(1):103-112.
[7]Shiferaw B, Prasanna B M, Hellin J, et al. Crops that feed the world 6. Past successes and future challenges to the role played by maize in global food security[J]. Food Security, 2011,3:307-327.
[8]李秀芬,陈莉,姜丽霞.近50年气候变暖对黑龙江省玉米增产贡献的研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(5):336-341.
[9]李秀芬,马树庆,宫丽娟,等.基于WOFOST的东北地区玉米生育期气象条件适宜度评价[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(1):43-49.
[10]Campos H, Cooper M, Habben J E, et al. Improving drought tolerance in maize:a view from industry[J]. Field Crops Research, 2004,90(1):19-34.
[11]董朝阳,刘志娟,杨晓光.北方地区不同等级干旱对春玉米产量影响[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(11):157-164.
[12]Aslam M, Zamir M S I, Afzal I, et al. Drought stress, its effect on maizeproduction and development of drought tolerance through potassium application[J]. Cercetari Agronomice in Moldova, 2013,46(2):99-144.
[13]Zhang Q, Sun P, Singh V P, et al. Spatial temporal precipitation changes(1956—2000)and their implications for agriculture in China[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2012,82/83:86-95.
[14]Zhang Jiquan. Risk assessment of drought disaster in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2004,102(2):133-153.
[15]Asseng S, Foster I, Turner N C. The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields[J]. Global Change Biology, 2011,17(2):997-1012.
[16]李尚中,樊廷录,赵刚,等.品种、密度与覆膜方式对旱地春玉米产量和水分利用效率的影响[J].草业学报,2017,26(12):35-47.
[17]王浩,王淑兰,徐宗贵,等.耕作与施肥对旱地玉米田土壤耗水量和水分利用率的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(6):856-864.
[18]张谋草,赵玮,周忠文,等.旱作区玉米田土壤水分变化对产量的影响及水分利用效率分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(33):242-247.
[19]裴雪霞,党建友,张定一,等.不同降水年型下播种期对晋南旱地小麦产量和水分利用率的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(4):553-562.
[20]段斌,宋世枝,何世界,等.信阳地区粳稻晚播气候资源利用率分析[J].中国稻米,2016,22(6):42-45.
[21]王晓煜,杨晓光,孙爽,等.气候变化背景下东北三省主要粮食作物产量潜力及资源利用效率比较[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(1):3091-3102.
[22]庞艳梅,陈超,潘学标,等.未来气候变化对四川盆地玉米生育期气候资源及生产潜力的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2013,21(12):1526-1536.
[23]赵慧颖,田宝星,宫丽娟,等.近308年来大兴安岭北部森林植被气候生产潜力及其对气候变化的响应[J].生态学报,2017,37(6):1900-1911.
[24]李淼,夏军,陈社明,等.北京地区近300年降水变化的小波分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(6):1001-1011.
[25]贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961—2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.
[26]刘志娟,杨晓光,王文峰,等.气候变化背景下我国东北三省农业气候资源变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(9):2199-2206.
[27]何奇瑾.我国玉米种植分布与气候变化关系研究[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2012.
[2]刘化涛,黄学芳,池宝亮,等.春玉米不同品种耗水特征及水分利用率差异分析研究[J].节水灌溉,2017(4):11-14,18.
[3]魏欢欢,王仕稳,杨文稼,等.免耕及深松耕对黄土高原地区春玉米和冬小麦产量及水分利用率影响的整合分析[J].中国农业科学,2017,50(3):461-473.
[4]李玉玲,张鹏,张艳,等.旱区集雨种植方式对土壤水分、温度的时空变化及春玉米产量的影响[J].中国农业科学,2016,49(6):1084-1096.
[5]战秀梅,宋涛,冯小杰,等.耕作及秸秆还田对辽南地区土壤水分及春玉米水分利用效率的影响[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2017,48(6):666-672.
[6]刘志娟,杨晓光,吕硕,等.气候变化背景下东北三省春玉米产量潜力的时空特征[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(1):103-112.
[7]Shiferaw B, Prasanna B M, Hellin J, et al. Crops that feed the world 6. Past successes and future challenges to the role played by maize in global food security[J]. Food Security, 2011,3:307-327.
[8]李秀芬,陈莉,姜丽霞.近50年气候变暖对黑龙江省玉米增产贡献的研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(5):336-341.
[9]李秀芬,马树庆,宫丽娟,等.基于WOFOST的东北地区玉米生育期气象条件适宜度评价[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(1):43-49.
[10]Campos H, Cooper M, Habben J E, et al. Improving drought tolerance in maize:a view from industry[J]. Field Crops Research, 2004,90(1):19-34.
[11]董朝阳,刘志娟,杨晓光.北方地区不同等级干旱对春玉米产量影响[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(11):157-164.
[12]Aslam M, Zamir M S I, Afzal I, et al. Drought stress, its effect on maizeproduction and development of drought tolerance through potassium application[J]. Cercetari Agronomice in Moldova, 2013,46(2):99-144.
[13]Zhang Q, Sun P, Singh V P, et al. Spatial temporal precipitation changes(1956—2000)and their implications for agriculture in China[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2012,82/83:86-95.
[14]Zhang Jiquan. Risk assessment of drought disaster in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2004,102(2):133-153.
[15]Asseng S, Foster I, Turner N C. The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields[J]. Global Change Biology, 2011,17(2):997-1012.
[16]李尚中,樊廷录,赵刚,等.品种、密度与覆膜方式对旱地春玉米产量和水分利用效率的影响[J].草业学报,2017,26(12):35-47.
[17]王浩,王淑兰,徐宗贵,等.耕作与施肥对旱地玉米田土壤耗水量和水分利用率的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(6):856-864.
[18]张谋草,赵玮,周忠文,等.旱作区玉米田土壤水分变化对产量的影响及水分利用效率分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(33):242-247.
[19]裴雪霞,党建友,张定一,等.不同降水年型下播种期对晋南旱地小麦产量和水分利用率的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(4):553-562.
[20]段斌,宋世枝,何世界,等.信阳地区粳稻晚播气候资源利用率分析[J].中国稻米,2016,22(6):42-45.
[21]王晓煜,杨晓光,孙爽,等.气候变化背景下东北三省主要粮食作物产量潜力及资源利用效率比较[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(1):3091-3102.
[22]庞艳梅,陈超,潘学标,等.未来气候变化对四川盆地玉米生育期气候资源及生产潜力的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2013,21(12):1526-1536.
[23]赵慧颖,田宝星,宫丽娟,等.近308年来大兴安岭北部森林植被气候生产潜力及其对气候变化的响应[J].生态学报,2017,37(6):1900-1911.
[24]李淼,夏军,陈社明,等.北京地区近300年降水变化的小波分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(6):1001-1011.
[25]贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961—2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.
[26]刘志娟,杨晓光,王文峰,等.气候变化背景下我国东北三省农业气候资源变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(9):2199-2206.
[27]何奇瑾.我国玉米种植分布与气候变化关系研究[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2012.