GM(1,1)模型预测分析2016年～2018年我国综合医院人均医药费用及药占比
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摘要
目的使用灰色系统GM(1,1)方法分析我国综合医院2000～2015年人均医药费用的变化趋势,并对2016年～2018年我国综合医院人均医药费用进行预测分析,验证医改对人均医药费用的影响。方法对我国综合医院2000～2015年间人均医疗费用数据进行统计分析,并使用Matlab软件利用2000～2015年度人均医疗费用数据建立灰色系统GM(1,1)模型进行分析预测。结果 2016年～2018年综合医院患者人均医药费和人均药品费将继续升高,而药占比将持续降低。结论通过医疗改革,我国综合性医院药占比呈下降趋势,但药品费用和医药费用呈持续上升趋势。
OBJECTIVE To analyze the trend of per capital medical expenditures from 2000 to 2015 and forecast per capital medical expenditures from 2016 to 2018 by Grey systems GM(1,1) method,and provide the basis for reducing the medical expenditures effectively,proving the impact of per capital medical expenditures on health care reform.METHODS Statistical analyzed the data of per capital medical expenditures from 2000 to 2015 and established Grey systems GM(1,1) model by using the data of per capital medical expenditures from 2000 to 2015 to analyze and forecast.RESULTS In 2016～2018 patients in general hospital per capita medical expenses and per capita drug costs would continue to rise,while the drug share would continue to decline.CONCLUSION Through the medical reform,the proportion of drug consumption in China's general hospitals show a downward trend,but the cost of drugs and medical expenses show an upward trend.
OBJECTIVE To analyze the trend of per capital medical expenditures from 2000 to 2015 and forecast per capital medical expenditures from 2016 to 2018 by Grey systems GM(1,1) method,and provide the basis for reducing the medical expenditures effectively,proving the impact of per capital medical expenditures on health care reform.METHODS Statistical analyzed the data of per capital medical expenditures from 2000 to 2015 and established Grey systems GM(1,1) model by using the data of per capital medical expenditures from 2000 to 2015 to analyze and forecast.RESULTS In 2016～2018 patients in general hospital per capita medical expenses and per capita drug costs would continue to rise,while the drug share would continue to decline.CONCLUSION Through the medical reform,the proportion of drug consumption in China's general hospitals show a downward trend,but the cost of drugs and medical expenses show an upward trend.
引文
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[8]王春丽.刘兴荣.基于间接DGM(1,1)模型的我国人均卫生总费用预测分析[J].卫生经济研究,2011,(10):33-34.
[9]吴燕萍,钟要红,陈定湾,等.基于改进GM(1,1)模型的卫生总费用快速测算方法研究[J].中国卫生经济,2014,33(5):35-37.
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[11]张默,卞鹰.我国医院药品价格加成政策的历史回顾及其影响[J].中国卫生事业管理,2007,24(7):465-466.
[12]黎东生,符桂林.药品降价政策的效果与原因分析[J].卫生经济研究,2014,(1):38-40.
[2]黄顺康,廖智柳.破除我国“以药养医”的机制设计分析[J].甘肃社会科学,2014,(3):113-117.
[3]张维斌.虚高药价的成因及治理策略探讨[J].中国药房,2016,27(22):3028-3030.
[4]严忠文.行政干预控制药占比的实践与体会[J].医药导报,2012,31(6):830-831.
[5]卫生部医院管理评价指南(2008年版)[M].中国法制出版社,2008,56-57.
[6]黄茂芳,李灵辉,汤少开.应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测广州市淋病发病率[J].现代预防医学杂志,2013,40(2):211-213.
[7]邬万江,张连富,卢伟.用Excel建立灰色数列预测模型的研究[J].佳木斯大学学报(自然科学版),2005,23(3):378-380.
[8]王春丽.刘兴荣.基于间接DGM(1,1)模型的我国人均卫生总费用预测分析[J].卫生经济研究,2011,(10):33-34.
[9]吴燕萍,钟要红,陈定湾,等.基于改进GM(1,1)模型的卫生总费用快速测算方法研究[J].中国卫生经济,2014,33(5):35-37.
[10]梁红慧,林新勤,石健.GM(1,1)模型在AIDS发病预测中的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2012,29(5):726-727.
[11]张默,卞鹰.我国医院药品价格加成政策的历史回顾及其影响[J].中国卫生事业管理,2007,24(7):465-466.
[12]黎东生,符桂林.药品降价政策的效果与原因分析[J].卫生经济研究,2014,(1):38-40.