变化环境下北京清水河流域径流响应研究
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摘要
为辨析北京市清水河流域在变化环境下径流量的变化情况,利用分布式水文模型(WEP-L)模拟流域水文过程,利用模型计算结果分析气候(气温、降水)和土地利用类型发生变化的情况下清水河流域径流响应情况。结果表明,汛期降水减少和气温升高导致年径流量显著减少;气候变化是流域径流量减少的主要原因;在气温不变的情况下,随着降水的减少,径流量减少的量逐渐变小,但减少率增大;降水不变的情况下,径流量随着气温升高先增加后减少,减少率变化不明显;降水减少是径流量减少的主因。研究成果可为水资源开发管理和土地利用的合理规划提供依据。
In order to analyze the change of runoff in the Qingshui River Basin in Beijing under the changing environment,the distributed hydrological model WEP-L was used to simulate the hydrological process of the basin.And the model calculation results were adopted to analyze the runoff response in the Qingshui River Basin under change of climate(temperature,precipitation)and land use types.The results show that the annual runoff is significantly reduced due to the decrease of precipitation and temperature in the flood season;Climate change is the main reason for the decrease of runoff in the basin;In the case of constant temperature,the amount of runoff decreases with the decrease of precipitation.But the reduction rate increases;When the precipitation is constant,the runoff increases first and then decreases with the increase of temperature,and the decrease rate does not change significantly;The decrease of precipitation is the main cause of the decrease of runoff.The research results can provide a basis for water resources development management and rational planning of land use.
In order to analyze the change of runoff in the Qingshui River Basin in Beijing under the changing environment,the distributed hydrological model WEP-L was used to simulate the hydrological process of the basin.And the model calculation results were adopted to analyze the runoff response in the Qingshui River Basin under change of climate(temperature,precipitation)and land use types.The results show that the annual runoff is significantly reduced due to the decrease of precipitation and temperature in the flood season;Climate change is the main reason for the decrease of runoff in the basin;In the case of constant temperature,the amount of runoff decreases with the decrease of precipitation.But the reduction rate increases;When the precipitation is constant,the runoff increases first and then decreases with the increase of temperature,and the decrease rate does not change significantly;The decrease of precipitation is the main cause of the decrease of runoff.The research results can provide a basis for water resources development management and rational planning of land use.
引文
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[2]崔海亭,刘鸿雁,戴君虎,等.山地生态学与高山林线研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[3]贾仰文,王浩,倪广恒,等.分布式流域水文模型原理与实践[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2005.
[4]赵阳,余新晓,郑江坤,等.气候和土地利用变化对潮白河流域径流变化的定量影响[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(22):252-260.
[5]郭静,粟晓玲.概念性生态水文模型区分气候变化与土地利用变化的径流影响[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(3):36-41,117.
[6]王云琦,齐实,孙阁,等.气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源的影响——以美国北卡罗莱纳州Trent流域为例[J].水科学进展,2011,22(1):51-58.
[7]袁宇志,张正栋,蒙金华.基于SWAT模型的流溪河流域土地利用与气候变化对径流的影响[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(4):989-998.