基于DER-Wolfson指数的中国海洋经济极化研究
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摘要
从人均海洋产值、海洋经济密度、海洋产业贡献度的层面出发,借助DER指数、Wolfson指数和信息扩散技术对中国沿海11省市1996～2015年间的海洋经济极化趋势与规律进行分析,并利用DER指数的认同-梳理框架解释导致极化的原因。研究发现:①1996～2015年间,人均海洋产值、海洋经济密度、海洋产业贡献度的极化效应已经显现。②海洋经济密度、海洋产业贡献度的DER指数和Wolfson指数都呈上升趋势;人均海洋产值的DER指数呈上升趋势,Wolfson指数呈下降趋势。③认同性和疏离性呈现相反的变化趋势,疏离性的变化是海洋经济极化的主要原因。由此提出促进中国沿海省域海洋经济协调、可持续发展的对策建议。
From the perspective of per capita marine output, the density of marine economy, the contribution of marine industries, and with the help of DER index, Wolfson index and information diffusion technology, this study analyzed the trend and regularity of marine economic polarization in 11 coastal provinces in China(not including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan)during 1996-2015, and explained the causes of polarization using the DER index identity-alienation framework.The study found: 1) Between 1996 and 2015, polarization effect begins to appear in the per capita marine output, the density of marine economy, the contribution of marine industries. 2) The DER index and Wolfson index of marine economic density, and contribution of marine industries all showed an upward trend. The DER index of per capita marine output shows an upward trend while the Wolfson index shows a downward trend. 3) The changes of alienation are the major causes of changes in the polarization of the marine economy. So this study proposed countermeasures to promote the coordinated and sustainable development of marine economy in Chinese coastal provinces.
From the perspective of per capita marine output, the density of marine economy, the contribution of marine industries, and with the help of DER index, Wolfson index and information diffusion technology, this study analyzed the trend and regularity of marine economic polarization in 11 coastal provinces in China(not including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan)during 1996-2015, and explained the causes of polarization using the DER index identity-alienation framework.The study found: 1) Between 1996 and 2015, polarization effect begins to appear in the per capita marine output, the density of marine economy, the contribution of marine industries. 2) The DER index and Wolfson index of marine economic density, and contribution of marine industries all showed an upward trend. The DER index of per capita marine output shows an upward trend while the Wolfson index shows a downward trend. 3) The changes of alienation are the major causes of changes in the polarization of the marine economy. So this study proposed countermeasures to promote the coordinated and sustainable development of marine economy in Chinese coastal provinces.
引文
[1]国家海洋局.2015年海洋经济统计公报[EB/OL]2016-03-07.http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghyjjtjgb/2015njjtjgb/201603/t20160307_50238.html.[State Oceanic Administration.Bulletin of marine economy statistics of China in 2015.2016-03-07.)http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghyjjtjgb/2015njjtjgb/201603/t20160307_50238.html.]
[2]崔功豪.区域分析与区域规划[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2007:298-325.[Cui Gonghao.Regional analysis and regional planning.Beijing:Higher Education Press,2007:298-325.]
[3]Atkinson.On the Measurement of Inequality[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1970,2(3):244-263.
[4]Levy F,Murnane R.Earnings levels and earnings inequality:Areview of recent trends and proposed explanations[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1992,30(3):1333-1381.
[5]Wolfson M.When inequalities diverge[J].American Economic Review,1994,84(2):353-358.
[6]Esteban J,Ray D.On the measurement of polarization[J].Econometrica,1994,62(4):819-851.
[7]Juan Antonio Duro,Emilio Padilla.Analysis of the international distribution of per capita CO2emissions using the polarization concept[J].Energy Policy,2007,36(2008):456-466.
[8]陈浩,郝宇,廖华,等.中国碳排放的空间分布格局--基于极化指数的分析[J].城市与环境研究,2014,1(1):68-79.[Chen Hao,Hao Yu,Liao Hua et al.Analysis of the Chinese spatial distribution of CO2emissions:Using the polarization concept.Urban and Environmental Studies,2014,1(1):68-79.]
[9]Duro J A.Another look to income polarization across countries[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2005,27(9):1001-1007.
[10]Scott Rozelle,Richard N Boisvert.Control in a dynamic village economy:The reforms and unbalanced development in China's rural economy[J].Journal of Physics Condensed Matter,1995,12(4):233-252
[11]Ravi Kanbur.Which regional inequality:The evolution of rural-urban and inland-coastal inequality in China from 1983 to1995[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,1999,27(12):686-701.
[12]Jiang X Z,Liu T Y,Su C W.China's marine economy and regional development[J].Marine Policy,2014,50:227-237.
[13]韩增林,王茂军,张学霞.中国海洋产业发展的地区差距变动及空间集聚分析[J].地理研究,2003,22(3):289-296.[Han Zenglin,Wang Maojun,Zhang Xuexia.Changes of regional differences and zonal centralizations of marine industry in China in the 1990s.Geographical Research,2003,22(3):289-292.]
[14]张耀光,刘锴,刘桂春,等.基于定量分析的辽宁区域海洋经济地域系统的时空差异[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):863-870.[Zhang Yaoguang,Liu Kai,Liu Guichun et al.Quantitative analysis of the spatial and temporal differences between the regional systems of marine economy in Liaoning province.Resource Science,2011,33(5):863-870.]
[15]盖美,张丽平,田成诗.环渤海经济区经济增长的区域差异及空间格局演变[J].经济地理,2013,33(4):22-28.[Gai Mei,Zhang Liping,Tian Chengshi.Economic development disparities and spatial pattern evolution in Bohai sea economic zone.Economic Geography,2013,33(4):22-28.]
[16]孙才志,李欣.基于核密度估计的中国海洋经济发展动态演变[J].经济地理,2015,35(1):96-103.[Sun Caizhi,Li Xin.Dynamic evolution analysis of China's marine economy development based on kernel density estimation.Economic Geography,2015,35(1):96-103.]
[17]王双.中国海洋经济的区域特征分析及其发展对策[J].经济地理,2012,32(6):80-84.[Wang Shuang.Analysis of China’s marine economic regional characteristics and development countermeasures for these regions.Economic Geography,2012,32(6):80-84.]
[18]李佩瑾,栾维新.中国沿海地区海洋经济发展水平初步研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2005(2):26-30.[Li Peijin,Luan Weixin.Apreliminary study on the development level of marine economy in Chinese coastal areas.Ocean Development and Management,2005,22(2):26-30.]
[19]张耀光,魏东岚,王国力,等.中国海洋经济省际空间差异与海洋经济强省建设[J].地理研究,2005,24(1):46-56.[Zhang Yaoguang,Wei Donglan,Wang Guoli et al.Analysis of interprovincial space difference in marine economy and the building of marine economically strong provinces in China.Geographical Research,2005,24(1):46-54.]
[20]栾维新,王海壮.长山群岛区域发展的地理基础与差异因素研究[J].地理科学,2005,25(5):34-40.[Luan Weixin,Wang Haizhuang.Study of geographical foundation and difference factor on regional development of Changshan islands.Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,25(5):34-40.]
[21]韩增林,许旭.中国海洋经济地域差异及演化过程分析[J].地理研究,2008,28(3):613-622.[Han Zenglin,Xu Xu.Analysis on regional disparities of marine economy and evolvement course in China.Geographical Research,2008,27(3):613-622.]
[22]董晓菲,韩增林.中国三大经济区海洋经济时空差异探讨[J].世界地理研究,2009,18(3):45-52.[Dong Xiaofei,Han Zenglin.Research on the disparities of space and time of marine economy of the three economic zone in China.World Geographical Research,2009,18(3):45-52.]
[23]狄乾斌,刘欣欣,曹可.中国海洋经济发展的时空差异及其动态变化研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(12):1413-1420.[Di Qianbin,Liu Xinxin,Cao Ke.Spatial and temportal disparities of marine economic development and dynamic changes in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,33(12):1413-1420.]
[24]王少剑,王洋,赵亚博.广东省区域经济差异的多尺度与多机制研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(10):1184-1192.[Wang Shaojian,Wang Yang,Zhao Yabo.GIS-based multi-scale and multi-mechanism research on regional inequality in Guangdong Province.Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,34(10):1184-1192.]
[25]赵磊,方成.中国旅游发展空间非均衡与极化研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(6):154-162.[Zhao Lei,Fang Cheng.Research on the imbalance and polarization of Chinese tourism development.China Population·Resources and Environment,2014,24(6):154-162.]
[26]罗楚亮.居民收入分布的极化[J].中国人口科学,2010(6):49-60.[Luo Chuliang.Polarization of income distribution.Chinese Population Science,2010(6):49-60.]
[27]Duclos Jean-Yves Ducl,Joan Esteban,Debraj Ray.Polarization:Concepts,measurement,estimation[J].Econometrica,2003,72(6):1737-1772.
[28]Michael C Wolfson.Conceptual issues in normative measurement when inequalities diverge[J].The American Economic Review,1994,84(2):353-358.
[29]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析与管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2012:182-184.[Huang Chongfu.Natural disaster risk analysis and management.Beijing:Science Press,2012:182-184.]
[30]Sun C,Li X,Zou W.Chinese marine economy development:dynamic evolution and spatial difference[J].Chinese Geographical Science,2018,28(1):111-126.
[31]国家海洋局.中国海洋统计年鉴[M].北京:海洋出版社,1997-2015.[State Oceanic Administration,People's Republic of China.China ocean statistical yearbook.Beijing:Ocean Press,1997-2015.]
[32]国家海洋局.中国海洋年鉴[M].北京:海洋出版社,1997-2015.[State Oceanic Administration,People's Republic of China.China ocean yearbook.Beijing:Ocean Press,1997-2015.]
[33]殷克东,方胜民.海洋强国指标体系[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2008:94-95.[Yin Kedong,Fang Shengmin.Maritime power system.Beijing:Economic Science Press,2008:94-95.]
(1)方法介绍,仅对人均海洋产值举例说明。
[2]崔功豪.区域分析与区域规划[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2007:298-325.[Cui Gonghao.Regional analysis and regional planning.Beijing:Higher Education Press,2007:298-325.]
[3]Atkinson.On the Measurement of Inequality[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1970,2(3):244-263.
[4]Levy F,Murnane R.Earnings levels and earnings inequality:Areview of recent trends and proposed explanations[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1992,30(3):1333-1381.
[5]Wolfson M.When inequalities diverge[J].American Economic Review,1994,84(2):353-358.
[6]Esteban J,Ray D.On the measurement of polarization[J].Econometrica,1994,62(4):819-851.
[7]Juan Antonio Duro,Emilio Padilla.Analysis of the international distribution of per capita CO2emissions using the polarization concept[J].Energy Policy,2007,36(2008):456-466.
[8]陈浩,郝宇,廖华,等.中国碳排放的空间分布格局--基于极化指数的分析[J].城市与环境研究,2014,1(1):68-79.[Chen Hao,Hao Yu,Liao Hua et al.Analysis of the Chinese spatial distribution of CO2emissions:Using the polarization concept.Urban and Environmental Studies,2014,1(1):68-79.]
[9]Duro J A.Another look to income polarization across countries[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2005,27(9):1001-1007.
[10]Scott Rozelle,Richard N Boisvert.Control in a dynamic village economy:The reforms and unbalanced development in China's rural economy[J].Journal of Physics Condensed Matter,1995,12(4):233-252
[11]Ravi Kanbur.Which regional inequality:The evolution of rural-urban and inland-coastal inequality in China from 1983 to1995[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,1999,27(12):686-701.
[12]Jiang X Z,Liu T Y,Su C W.China's marine economy and regional development[J].Marine Policy,2014,50:227-237.
[13]韩增林,王茂军,张学霞.中国海洋产业发展的地区差距变动及空间集聚分析[J].地理研究,2003,22(3):289-296.[Han Zenglin,Wang Maojun,Zhang Xuexia.Changes of regional differences and zonal centralizations of marine industry in China in the 1990s.Geographical Research,2003,22(3):289-292.]
[14]张耀光,刘锴,刘桂春,等.基于定量分析的辽宁区域海洋经济地域系统的时空差异[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):863-870.[Zhang Yaoguang,Liu Kai,Liu Guichun et al.Quantitative analysis of the spatial and temporal differences between the regional systems of marine economy in Liaoning province.Resource Science,2011,33(5):863-870.]
[15]盖美,张丽平,田成诗.环渤海经济区经济增长的区域差异及空间格局演变[J].经济地理,2013,33(4):22-28.[Gai Mei,Zhang Liping,Tian Chengshi.Economic development disparities and spatial pattern evolution in Bohai sea economic zone.Economic Geography,2013,33(4):22-28.]
[16]孙才志,李欣.基于核密度估计的中国海洋经济发展动态演变[J].经济地理,2015,35(1):96-103.[Sun Caizhi,Li Xin.Dynamic evolution analysis of China's marine economy development based on kernel density estimation.Economic Geography,2015,35(1):96-103.]
[17]王双.中国海洋经济的区域特征分析及其发展对策[J].经济地理,2012,32(6):80-84.[Wang Shuang.Analysis of China’s marine economic regional characteristics and development countermeasures for these regions.Economic Geography,2012,32(6):80-84.]
[18]李佩瑾,栾维新.中国沿海地区海洋经济发展水平初步研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2005(2):26-30.[Li Peijin,Luan Weixin.Apreliminary study on the development level of marine economy in Chinese coastal areas.Ocean Development and Management,2005,22(2):26-30.]
[19]张耀光,魏东岚,王国力,等.中国海洋经济省际空间差异与海洋经济强省建设[J].地理研究,2005,24(1):46-56.[Zhang Yaoguang,Wei Donglan,Wang Guoli et al.Analysis of interprovincial space difference in marine economy and the building of marine economically strong provinces in China.Geographical Research,2005,24(1):46-54.]
[20]栾维新,王海壮.长山群岛区域发展的地理基础与差异因素研究[J].地理科学,2005,25(5):34-40.[Luan Weixin,Wang Haizhuang.Study of geographical foundation and difference factor on regional development of Changshan islands.Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,25(5):34-40.]
[21]韩增林,许旭.中国海洋经济地域差异及演化过程分析[J].地理研究,2008,28(3):613-622.[Han Zenglin,Xu Xu.Analysis on regional disparities of marine economy and evolvement course in China.Geographical Research,2008,27(3):613-622.]
[22]董晓菲,韩增林.中国三大经济区海洋经济时空差异探讨[J].世界地理研究,2009,18(3):45-52.[Dong Xiaofei,Han Zenglin.Research on the disparities of space and time of marine economy of the three economic zone in China.World Geographical Research,2009,18(3):45-52.]
[23]狄乾斌,刘欣欣,曹可.中国海洋经济发展的时空差异及其动态变化研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(12):1413-1420.[Di Qianbin,Liu Xinxin,Cao Ke.Spatial and temportal disparities of marine economic development and dynamic changes in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,33(12):1413-1420.]
[24]王少剑,王洋,赵亚博.广东省区域经济差异的多尺度与多机制研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(10):1184-1192.[Wang Shaojian,Wang Yang,Zhao Yabo.GIS-based multi-scale and multi-mechanism research on regional inequality in Guangdong Province.Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,34(10):1184-1192.]
[25]赵磊,方成.中国旅游发展空间非均衡与极化研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(6):154-162.[Zhao Lei,Fang Cheng.Research on the imbalance and polarization of Chinese tourism development.China Population·Resources and Environment,2014,24(6):154-162.]
[26]罗楚亮.居民收入分布的极化[J].中国人口科学,2010(6):49-60.[Luo Chuliang.Polarization of income distribution.Chinese Population Science,2010(6):49-60.]
[27]Duclos Jean-Yves Ducl,Joan Esteban,Debraj Ray.Polarization:Concepts,measurement,estimation[J].Econometrica,2003,72(6):1737-1772.
[28]Michael C Wolfson.Conceptual issues in normative measurement when inequalities diverge[J].The American Economic Review,1994,84(2):353-358.
[29]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析与管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2012:182-184.[Huang Chongfu.Natural disaster risk analysis and management.Beijing:Science Press,2012:182-184.]
[30]Sun C,Li X,Zou W.Chinese marine economy development:dynamic evolution and spatial difference[J].Chinese Geographical Science,2018,28(1):111-126.
[31]国家海洋局.中国海洋统计年鉴[M].北京:海洋出版社,1997-2015.[State Oceanic Administration,People's Republic of China.China ocean statistical yearbook.Beijing:Ocean Press,1997-2015.]
[32]国家海洋局.中国海洋年鉴[M].北京:海洋出版社,1997-2015.[State Oceanic Administration,People's Republic of China.China ocean yearbook.Beijing:Ocean Press,1997-2015.]
[33]殷克东,方胜民.海洋强国指标体系[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2008:94-95.[Yin Kedong,Fang Shengmin.Maritime power system.Beijing:Economic Science Press,2008:94-95.]
(1)方法介绍,仅对人均海洋产值举例说明。