化工设计投资项目中的多因素敏感性分析
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摘要
敏感性分析是化工设计项目经济评价分析不确定因素风险的常用方法,通用的单因素敏感性分析虽然便于找出敏感因素,但不能体现多个因素同时变化时的相互作用及综合影响。本文利用Excel+VBA编程实现了大数据量的多因素敏感性分析计算,并结合Origin首次给出了三因素共同影响下的获利临界区域图。多因素敏感性分析有助于对投资决策做出更合理的判断,该方法对已经投产的项目如何规避风险也同样具有一定的指导作用。
Sensitivity analysis is a common method for economic evaluation and risk analysis of uncertain factors in chemical design projects. It is also an important link in the teaching of Chemical Engineering Design course. The commonly used single factor sensitivity analysis is easy to find out the sensitive factors,but it can't reflect the interaction and comprehensive influence of multiple factors at the same time. The multi-factor sensitivity analysis of NPV was completed by using Excel + VBA programming. The comprehensive influence of multiple uncertainties was given intuitively,and the critical region diagram under the joint influence of three factors was given for the first time. The program can help students to deepen the impact of simultaneous changes in multiple factors on the economic benefits of the project,and help to make more reasonable judgments on investment decisions. This method also had a certain guiding role in how to avoid risks in projects already put into operation.
Sensitivity analysis is a common method for economic evaluation and risk analysis of uncertain factors in chemical design projects. It is also an important link in the teaching of Chemical Engineering Design course. The commonly used single factor sensitivity analysis is easy to find out the sensitive factors,but it can't reflect the interaction and comprehensive influence of multiple factors at the same time. The multi-factor sensitivity analysis of NPV was completed by using Excel + VBA programming. The comprehensive influence of multiple uncertainties was given intuitively,and the critical region diagram under the joint influence of three factors was given for the first time. The program can help students to deepen the impact of simultaneous changes in multiple factors on the economic benefits of the project,and help to make more reasonable judgments on investment decisions. This method also had a certain guiding role in how to avoid risks in projects already put into operation.
引文
[1]梁志武,陈声宗.化工设计. 4版[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2015:263-270.
[2]黄璐,王保国.化工设计[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2001:73-76.
[3]王静康,伍宏业.化工过程设计.化工设计第二版[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2006:300-303.
[4]邵希娟,罗钰.基于Excel的投资项目多因素敏感性分析的方法研究[J].项目管理技术,2014,12(2):27-32.
[5]陈梓炜,李圆.多因素敏感性分析在项目经济评价中的运用[J].价值工程,2014(33):130-13.
[2]黄璐,王保国.化工设计[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2001:73-76.
[3]王静康,伍宏业.化工过程设计.化工设计第二版[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2006:300-303.
[4]邵希娟,罗钰.基于Excel的投资项目多因素敏感性分析的方法研究[J].项目管理技术,2014,12(2):27-32.
[5]陈梓炜,李圆.多因素敏感性分析在项目经济评价中的运用[J].价值工程,2014(33):130-13.