高等教育投资对经济增长的影响分析——基于投资异质性视角
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摘要
进入"新时代",面对新的客观条件和环境,我国经济将由"高速增长阶段"迈向"高质量发展阶段"。在这样的背景下,作为人力资本主要输出渠道的高等教育也应随之做出调整,适应新的发展要求,以更高的效率持续推动我国经济发展。为进一步探明我国高等教育对经济的推动作用,从投资异质性及投资结构这一全新视角出发,利用1998—2015年省际面板数据,借助面板分位数模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)财政投资在当期对不同发展水平地区的经济均起到正向作用,并且这种正向作用会随地区经济增速的提高逐渐弱化。(2)家庭投资在滞后三期时对经济的影响要显著于投资当期,且家庭投资的滞后期短于财政投资的滞后期。(3)投资结构在不同分位数点上显著对经济增长呈现出倒U型影响,目前我国处于倒U型结构顶点左侧,表明我国目前高等教育投资结构较为合理,能有效拉动经济增长。
Entering the "new era", in the face of new objective conditions and environment, China's economy will move from "high-speed growth stage" to "high-quality development stage." Under such a background, higher education, which is the main output channel of human capital, should also be adjusted accordingly to adapt to new development requirements and continue to promote China's economic development with higher efficiency. In order to further explore the role of China's higher education in promoting the economy, from the perspective of investment heterogeneity and investment structure, the inter-provincial panel data from 1998 to 2015 was used to conduct empirical analysis by panel quantile model.The research found that:(1)1 Financial input can play a positive role in the economy of different development levels in the current period, and this positive effect will gradually weaken as the economic growth rate in different regions increases.(2)The effect of domestic investment on the economy in the third phase is more significant than that in the current period, and the lag period of domestic investment is shorter than the lag period of fiscal investment.(3) The investment structure has a significant U-shaped impact on economic growth at different quantile points. At present, China is on the left side of the inverted U-shaped structure, indicating that China's current higher education investment structure is more reasonable and can effectively stimulate economic growth.
Entering the "new era", in the face of new objective conditions and environment, China's economy will move from "high-speed growth stage" to "high-quality development stage." Under such a background, higher education, which is the main output channel of human capital, should also be adjusted accordingly to adapt to new development requirements and continue to promote China's economic development with higher efficiency. In order to further explore the role of China's higher education in promoting the economy, from the perspective of investment heterogeneity and investment structure, the inter-provincial panel data from 1998 to 2015 was used to conduct empirical analysis by panel quantile model.The research found that:(1)1 Financial input can play a positive role in the economy of different development levels in the current period, and this positive effect will gradually weaken as the economic growth rate in different regions increases.(2)The effect of domestic investment on the economy in the third phase is more significant than that in the current period, and the lag period of domestic investment is shorter than the lag period of fiscal investment.(3) The investment structure has a significant U-shaped impact on economic growth at different quantile points. At present, China is on the left side of the inverted U-shaped structure, indicating that China's current higher education investment structure is more reasonable and can effectively stimulate economic growth.
引文
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[15]姚先国,张海峰.教育、人力资本与地区经济差异[J].经济研究,2008(5):47-57.
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[17]浦小松.公共教育投入结构、延迟效应与经济增长———基于面板分位数模型的研究[J].现代教育管理,2016(9):39-46.
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[19]李天健.高等教育改革对居民消费和储蓄变化的影响[J].西部论坛,2013,23(1):45-53.
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[21]卜振兴.论教育投入及其结构对经济增长的作用[J].西南大学学报(社会科学版),2015,41(5):81-89,206-207.
[22]Valero A, Van Reenen J. The economic impact of universities:Evidence from across the globe[J]. Economics of Education Review,2019, 68:53-67.
[23]陶美重.论教育消费的本质[J].教育与经济,2007(4):19-23.
[24]梅冬州,王子健,雷文妮.党代会召开、监察力度变化与中国经济波动[J].经济研究,2014,49(3):47-61.
[25]刘曦子,侯锐,陈进.人口受教育程度对居民消费的影响研究———基于动态面板分位数回归法[J].西北人口,2017,38(1):50-56,65.
[26]Johnstone D B. The economics and politics of cost sharing in higher education:comparative perspectives[J]. Economics of education review, 2004,23(4):403-410.
[27]Johnstone D B. Cost sharing in higher education:Tuition,financial assistance, and accessibility in a comparative perspective[J].Sociologicky?asopis/Czech Sociological Review, 2003:351-374.
[28]高晓清,杨希通.捐赠与美国研究型大学发展:历程、现状与启示[J].当代教育论坛,2018(4):1-9.
[29]单凤姣,李震峰.我国公立高校资源配置:逻辑、障碍与路径———基于林达尔均衡的分析[J].教育发展研究,2018,38(Z1):92-100,107.
[30]Denny K. The effect of abolishing university tuition costs:Evidence from Ireland[J]. Labour Economics, 2014, 26:26-33.
[31]Houtenville A J,Conway K S. Parental effort,school resources,and student achievement[J]. Journal of Human resources,2008, 43(2):437-453.
[2]江登英,康灿华.高等教育投资结构合理性评价指标体系的构建[J].湖北社会科学,2015(11):176-180.
[3]刘斌.我国高等教育财政支出对经济增长影响的实证研究[D].首都经济贸易大学,2018.
[4]徐健.财政教育投入对经济增长影响的实证分析[J].兰州交通大学学报,2010,29(2):37-39+68.
[5]陈建伟,苏丽锋.再认识高等教育扩张的经济增长效应:架起高储蓄与高增长之间的桥梁[J].清华大学教育研究,2014,35(5):88-95.
[6]柴江.我国高等教育收费现状与效应研究[D].苏州大学,2017.
[7]侯东军.校友捐赠对高校发展的作用及影响因素探析[J].当代教育论坛,2013(6):87-92.
[8]侯东军.我国高校校友捐赠现状及促进对策[J].当代教育论坛,2016(4):87-91.
[9]罗公利.社会捐赠与高教成本分担[J].青岛科技大学学报(社会科学版),2003(4):87-93.
[10]罗晓华.高等教育财政投资政策研究[D].厦门大学,2007.
[11]罗伯特,巴罗,萨拉伊,等.经济增长[J].中译本,北京:中国社会科学出版社,2000.
[12]江登英,康灿华.高等教育投资结构合理性评价指标体系的构建[J].湖北社会科学,2015(11):176-180.
[13]刘新荣,占玲芳.教育投入及其结构对中国经济增长的影响[J].教育与经济,2013(3):49-55.
[14]陈洲.地区人才吸引力、教育财政支出与高校本地生源占比[D].湘潭大学,2017.
[15]姚先国,张海峰.教育、人力资本与地区经济差异[J].经济研究,2008(5):47-57.
[16]刘焕鹏,严太华.面板数据分位数回归模型研究综述[J].统计与决策,2014(17):82-84.
[17]浦小松.公共教育投入结构、延迟效应与经济增长———基于面板分位数模型的研究[J].现代教育管理,2016(9):39-46.
[18]王胜华.政府支出经济增长效应区域异质性研究[D].中国财政科学研究院,2018.
[19]李天健.高等教育改革对居民消费和储蓄变化的影响[J].西部论坛,2013,23(1):45-53.
[20]杨汝岱,陈斌开.高等教育改革、预防性储蓄与居民消费行为[J].经济研究,2009,44(8):113-124.
[21]卜振兴.论教育投入及其结构对经济增长的作用[J].西南大学学报(社会科学版),2015,41(5):81-89,206-207.
[22]Valero A, Van Reenen J. The economic impact of universities:Evidence from across the globe[J]. Economics of Education Review,2019, 68:53-67.
[23]陶美重.论教育消费的本质[J].教育与经济,2007(4):19-23.
[24]梅冬州,王子健,雷文妮.党代会召开、监察力度变化与中国经济波动[J].经济研究,2014,49(3):47-61.
[25]刘曦子,侯锐,陈进.人口受教育程度对居民消费的影响研究———基于动态面板分位数回归法[J].西北人口,2017,38(1):50-56,65.
[26]Johnstone D B. The economics and politics of cost sharing in higher education:comparative perspectives[J]. Economics of education review, 2004,23(4):403-410.
[27]Johnstone D B. Cost sharing in higher education:Tuition,financial assistance, and accessibility in a comparative perspective[J].Sociologicky?asopis/Czech Sociological Review, 2003:351-374.
[28]高晓清,杨希通.捐赠与美国研究型大学发展:历程、现状与启示[J].当代教育论坛,2018(4):1-9.
[29]单凤姣,李震峰.我国公立高校资源配置:逻辑、障碍与路径———基于林达尔均衡的分析[J].教育发展研究,2018,38(Z1):92-100,107.
[30]Denny K. The effect of abolishing university tuition costs:Evidence from Ireland[J]. Labour Economics, 2014, 26:26-33.
[31]Houtenville A J,Conway K S. Parental effort,school resources,and student achievement[J]. Journal of Human resources,2008, 43(2):437-453.