越南-新加坡关系的新阶段:描述与分析
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摘要
越南与新加坡同为东南亚中的重要国家,其双边关系目前十分紧密。自两国关系正常化一直到现在,越新关系不断向前发展,以2009年两国开展防务合作为标志,两国关系进入到一个新阶段。在这个新阶段,两国合作不断深化,双边关系继续向前发展。而促使越新关系不断向好的因素,则来自于国际体系层次中的美国和南海因素、区域层次中的东盟一体化因素和国家层次中的两国自身国家属性因素。
Vietnam and Singapore are both important countries in Southeast Asia and their bilateral relations are now very close. Since the normalization of relations between the two countries till now, the relations have continued to develop. With the beginning of defence cooperation between the two countries in 2009, the relationship between the two countries has entered a new phase. In this new phase, bilateral cooperation continues to deepen and bilateral relations continue to grow upward. The continuous improvement of Vietnam-Singapore relations comes from the factors of the United States and the South China Sea at the level of the international system, the ASEAN integration factor at the regional level, and the country's own national attribute factors at the national level.
Vietnam and Singapore are both important countries in Southeast Asia and their bilateral relations are now very close. Since the normalization of relations between the two countries till now, the relations have continued to develop. With the beginning of defence cooperation between the two countries in 2009, the relationship between the two countries has entered a new phase. In this new phase, bilateral cooperation continues to deepen and bilateral relations continue to grow upward. The continuous improvement of Vietnam-Singapore relations comes from the factors of the United States and the South China Sea at the level of the international system, the ASEAN integration factor at the regional level, and the country's own national attribute factors at the national level.
引文
[1]新加坡国际企业发展局网站.郑国富.越南与新加坡双边经贸关系研究(1973年-2013年)[J].广西民族师范学院学报,2013(1):97-98.
[2]新加坡国际企业发展网站.Bilateral Collaborations between Singapore and Vietnam[EB/OL].[2018-03-26].https://www.iesingapore.gov.sg/Venture-Overseas/Browse-By-Market/Asia-Pacific/Vietnam/Bilateral-Collaborations.
[3]新加坡总理府网站.Joint Statement on the Establishment of a Strategic Partnership between the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam and the Republic of Singapore[EB/OL].(2013-9-12),[2018-03-26].http://www.pmo.gov.sg/newsroom/jointstatement-establishment-strategic-partnership-betweensocialist-republic-viet-nam.
[4]阎学通,周方银.国家双边关系的定量衡量[J].中国社会科学,2004(6):90-103.
[5]闫学通.中外关系定量预测[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2009:17-33.
[6]黄云静.越南与新加坡关系:1973-2008[J].东南亚研究,2008(5).
[7]Strengthening Vietnam-Singapore trade relations[N/OL],Talk Vietnamwan,2017-3-22,[2018-03-26].https://www.talkvietnam.com/2017/03/strengthening-vietnam-singaporetrade-relations/.
[8]Yearbook of Statistics Singapore[R].2016:98-99.
[9]越南社会主义共和国中央政府门户网站.韩国成为越南最大投资来源国[N/OL].(2017-6-14)[2018-03-26].http://cn.news.chinhphu.vn/Home/%E9%9F%A9%E5%9B%BD%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E8%B6%8A%E5%8D%97%E6%9C%80%E5%A4%A7%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E6%9D%A5%E6%BA%90%E5%9B%BD/20176/22640.vgp.
[10]严耀新.新加坡投资越南项目协议金额已达327亿美元[N/OL].(2015-01-08)[2018-03-26].http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/jyjl/j/201501/20150100860975.shtml.
[11]南洋公共管理研究生院网站,Executive Development Programmes[EB/OL].[2018-03-26].http://www.ncpa.ntu.edu.sg/Eng/Programmes/Executive%20Training%20Programmes/Pages/Home.aspx.
[12]纪硕鸣:新加坡成为亚洲干部培训摇篮[J/OL].(2013-07-03)[2018-03-26].http://news.takungpao.com/opinion/highlights/2013-07/1732656.html.
[13]新加坡外交部网站.Joint Press Statement:Official Visit to Singapore by the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam His Excellency Nguyen Phu Trong,12-14 September 2012[EB/OL].(2012-09-12)[2018-03-26].https://www1.mfa.gov.sg/Newsroom/Press-Statements-Transcripts-and-Photos/2012/09/Joint--Press-Statement-Official-Visit-to-Singapore-by-theGeneral-Secretary-of-the-Communist-Party-o.
[14]新加坡国防部网站.Ong Hong Tat.Agreement cements warm ties between Singapore and Vietnam armed forces[EB/OL].(2009-09-07)[2018-03-26].https://www.mindef.gov.sg/imindef/resourcelibrary/cyberpioneer/topics/articles/news/2009/September/09sep09_news.print.img.html.
[15]彭玲霞.越南和新加坡签订国防工业合作协议[N/OL].(2012-01-13)[2018-03-26].http://www.dsti.net/Information/News/73476.
[16]越南之声.Singapore,Vietnam commit to expanding defence ties[N/OL].(2016-03-02)[2018-03-26].http://english.vov.vn/diplomacy/singapore-vietnam-commit-to-expandingdefence-ties-313625.vov.
[17]Voatiengviet网站.Vi?t Nam-Singapor e??itho?iqu?cphòng[N/OL].(2017-10-10)[2018-03-26].https://www.voatiengviet.com/a/viet-nam-singapore-doithoai-quoc-phong/4064111.html.
[18]Michael Leifer:Singapore's Foreign Policy-Coping with vulnerability[M],Routledge(2000):100.
[19]程苇苇.新加坡在亚太再平衡中的角色研究[D].北京:外交学院,2017:18.
[20]檀江林,李莉.美国奥巴马政府“重返亚太”战略的成因探析——基于国际关系“层次分析法”的考察[J].东南亚研究,2013(1):31-32.
[21]王勤.当代东南亚经济的发展进程与格局变化[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013(1):74.
[22]Amitav Acharya.Singapore's Foreign Policy-The search for reginalorder[M].World Scientific Publishing Co.Pte.Ltd:51-52.
[23]东盟官方网站.DECLARATION OF ASEAN CONCORD II(BALI CONCORD II)[EB/OL].[2018-03-26].http://asean.org/?static_post=declaration-of-asean-concord-ii-baliconcord-ii.
[24]丁子,张志文.东盟共同体推动地区一体化进程[N].人民日报.2016-01-01(03).
[25]潘金娥.越共十二大之后越南外交战略的新趋向[J].当代世界.2016(11):48.
[26]隆德新.新加坡在东盟发展过程中的身份定位[J].东南亚南亚研究,2010(2):37-38.
(1)国内文献中具体内容请参见:黄云静.越南与新加坡关系1973-2008[J].东南亚研究,2008(5):33-38;郑国富.越南与新加坡双边经贸关系研究(1973年-2013年)[J].广西民族师范学院学报,2013(1):97-101.
(2)国外文献中具体内容请参见:Ang Cheng Guan.Singapore and the Vietnam war[J].Journal of Southeast Asian Studies,2009(2):353-384;Foo Kim Boon.THE SINGAPOREVIETNAM BILATERAL INVESTMENT AGREEMENT[J].Singapore Journal of Legal Studies,1993:.318-325;Le Hong Hiep.Singapore-Vietnam Strategic Partnership:New Initiatives Needed[J].RSIS Commentary,2015.11.16;李光耀.李光耀回忆录-经济腾飞路[M].北京:外文出版社,2001:317-325;Duong Van Quang,Building a new Singapore-Vietnam Partnership.Tommy Koh,Li lin Chang,Joanna Koh.The Little Red Dot-Reflections of Foreign Ambassadors[C],World Scientific Publishing Co.Pte.Ltd:335-340.
(3)具体计算方法请参考阎学通、周方银:《国家双边关系的定量衡量》,《中国社会科学》,2004年第6期,第90-103页和阎学通:《中外关系定量预测》,世界知识出版社,2009年,第17-33页。对于初始值的设定,很难撇清人为误差的影响,但是对于双边关系的量化在这里仅仅起着反映两国关系发展趋势的作用,初始值只要不会太离谱对于双边关系趋势的反映不会有太大影响。
(4)由于初始值的设定和事件赋值具有一定的主观性,因此两国关系的量化会存在一定的误差,但是总体上这个误差是可以忽略的,量化可以从总体上展现两国关系的发展情况。
[2]新加坡国际企业发展网站.Bilateral Collaborations between Singapore and Vietnam[EB/OL].[2018-03-26].https://www.iesingapore.gov.sg/Venture-Overseas/Browse-By-Market/Asia-Pacific/Vietnam/Bilateral-Collaborations.
[3]新加坡总理府网站.Joint Statement on the Establishment of a Strategic Partnership between the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam and the Republic of Singapore[EB/OL].(2013-9-12),[2018-03-26].http://www.pmo.gov.sg/newsroom/jointstatement-establishment-strategic-partnership-betweensocialist-republic-viet-nam.
[4]阎学通,周方银.国家双边关系的定量衡量[J].中国社会科学,2004(6):90-103.
[5]闫学通.中外关系定量预测[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2009:17-33.
[6]黄云静.越南与新加坡关系:1973-2008[J].东南亚研究,2008(5).
[7]Strengthening Vietnam-Singapore trade relations[N/OL],Talk Vietnamwan,2017-3-22,[2018-03-26].https://www.talkvietnam.com/2017/03/strengthening-vietnam-singaporetrade-relations/.
[8]Yearbook of Statistics Singapore[R].2016:98-99.
[9]越南社会主义共和国中央政府门户网站.韩国成为越南最大投资来源国[N/OL].(2017-6-14)[2018-03-26].http://cn.news.chinhphu.vn/Home/%E9%9F%A9%E5%9B%BD%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E8%B6%8A%E5%8D%97%E6%9C%80%E5%A4%A7%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E6%9D%A5%E6%BA%90%E5%9B%BD/20176/22640.vgp.
[10]严耀新.新加坡投资越南项目协议金额已达327亿美元[N/OL].(2015-01-08)[2018-03-26].http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/jyjl/j/201501/20150100860975.shtml.
[11]南洋公共管理研究生院网站,Executive Development Programmes[EB/OL].[2018-03-26].http://www.ncpa.ntu.edu.sg/Eng/Programmes/Executive%20Training%20Programmes/Pages/Home.aspx.
[12]纪硕鸣:新加坡成为亚洲干部培训摇篮[J/OL].(2013-07-03)[2018-03-26].http://news.takungpao.com/opinion/highlights/2013-07/1732656.html.
[13]新加坡外交部网站.Joint Press Statement:Official Visit to Singapore by the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam His Excellency Nguyen Phu Trong,12-14 September 2012[EB/OL].(2012-09-12)[2018-03-26].https://www1.mfa.gov.sg/Newsroom/Press-Statements-Transcripts-and-Photos/2012/09/Joint--Press-Statement-Official-Visit-to-Singapore-by-theGeneral-Secretary-of-the-Communist-Party-o.
[14]新加坡国防部网站.Ong Hong Tat.Agreement cements warm ties between Singapore and Vietnam armed forces[EB/OL].(2009-09-07)[2018-03-26].https://www.mindef.gov.sg/imindef/resourcelibrary/cyberpioneer/topics/articles/news/2009/September/09sep09_news.print.img.html.
[15]彭玲霞.越南和新加坡签订国防工业合作协议[N/OL].(2012-01-13)[2018-03-26].http://www.dsti.net/Information/News/73476.
[16]越南之声.Singapore,Vietnam commit to expanding defence ties[N/OL].(2016-03-02)[2018-03-26].http://english.vov.vn/diplomacy/singapore-vietnam-commit-to-expandingdefence-ties-313625.vov.
[17]Voatiengviet网站.Vi?t Nam-Singapor e??itho?iqu?cphòng[N/OL].(2017-10-10)[2018-03-26].https://www.voatiengviet.com/a/viet-nam-singapore-doithoai-quoc-phong/4064111.html.
[18]Michael Leifer:Singapore's Foreign Policy-Coping with vulnerability[M],Routledge(2000):100.
[19]程苇苇.新加坡在亚太再平衡中的角色研究[D].北京:外交学院,2017:18.
[20]檀江林,李莉.美国奥巴马政府“重返亚太”战略的成因探析——基于国际关系“层次分析法”的考察[J].东南亚研究,2013(1):31-32.
[21]王勤.当代东南亚经济的发展进程与格局变化[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013(1):74.
[22]Amitav Acharya.Singapore's Foreign Policy-The search for reginalorder[M].World Scientific Publishing Co.Pte.Ltd:51-52.
[23]东盟官方网站.DECLARATION OF ASEAN CONCORD II(BALI CONCORD II)[EB/OL].[2018-03-26].http://asean.org/?static_post=declaration-of-asean-concord-ii-baliconcord-ii.
[24]丁子,张志文.东盟共同体推动地区一体化进程[N].人民日报.2016-01-01(03).
[25]潘金娥.越共十二大之后越南外交战略的新趋向[J].当代世界.2016(11):48.
[26]隆德新.新加坡在东盟发展过程中的身份定位[J].东南亚南亚研究,2010(2):37-38.
(1)国内文献中具体内容请参见:黄云静.越南与新加坡关系1973-2008[J].东南亚研究,2008(5):33-38;郑国富.越南与新加坡双边经贸关系研究(1973年-2013年)[J].广西民族师范学院学报,2013(1):97-101.
(2)国外文献中具体内容请参见:Ang Cheng Guan.Singapore and the Vietnam war[J].Journal of Southeast Asian Studies,2009(2):353-384;Foo Kim Boon.THE SINGAPOREVIETNAM BILATERAL INVESTMENT AGREEMENT[J].Singapore Journal of Legal Studies,1993:.318-325;Le Hong Hiep.Singapore-Vietnam Strategic Partnership:New Initiatives Needed[J].RSIS Commentary,2015.11.16;李光耀.李光耀回忆录-经济腾飞路[M].北京:外文出版社,2001:317-325;Duong Van Quang,Building a new Singapore-Vietnam Partnership.Tommy Koh,Li lin Chang,Joanna Koh.The Little Red Dot-Reflections of Foreign Ambassadors[C],World Scientific Publishing Co.Pte.Ltd:335-340.
(3)具体计算方法请参考阎学通、周方银:《国家双边关系的定量衡量》,《中国社会科学》,2004年第6期,第90-103页和阎学通:《中外关系定量预测》,世界知识出版社,2009年,第17-33页。对于初始值的设定,很难撇清人为误差的影响,但是对于双边关系的量化在这里仅仅起着反映两国关系发展趋势的作用,初始值只要不会太离谱对于双边关系趋势的反映不会有太大影响。
(4)由于初始值的设定和事件赋值具有一定的主观性,因此两国关系的量化会存在一定的误差,但是总体上这个误差是可以忽略的,量化可以从总体上展现两国关系的发展情况。