2006-2015年华中地区土地市场因素对城市扩张的影响机制探究
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摘要
目前随着城市化进程的不断加速,中国大规模城市建设用地扩张趋势十分明显,许多地区建设用地面积已远远超过土地总体利用规划指标。城市建设用地持续扩张不仅可能会对永久基本农田造成威胁,也会导致城市自身的低效无序发展。探究引起城市扩张的驱动力,并据此有效地限制建设用地的大规模扩张,越来越受到学术界的关注。本文选择城市扩张的一种驱动力,即土地市场因素,试图找出该因素对城市扩张的影响,同时对于如何更合理有效地引导城市建设用地扩张具有重要的理论意义。利用2006-2015年华中地区河南,湖北和河南三个省份的42个城市数据,运用面板数据模型及其修正模型实证分析土地市场因素和城市建设用地扩张的关系,结论显示:(1)较高的土地市场化水平,土地一级市场总交易额,通过"招拍挂"出让方式的平均土地交易价格可以显著抑制城市建设用地扩张。(2)较高的"招拍挂"土地出让总价格会显著促进城市的扩张。(3)土地一级市场总交易土地块数,"招拍挂"出让的土地总面积对于建设用地扩张无显著影响。最后一部分提出一些局限性以及未来的研究方向。
At present, with the acceleration of urbanization, the trend of large-scale urban construction land expansion in China is very obvious, and the area of construction land in many areas has far exceeded the quota from land use plan. Continuous expansion of urban construction land may not only bring threats to permanent basic farmland, but also lead to inefficient and disorderly development of urban itself. Studying the driving force of urban expansion and effectively restrict the large-scale expansion of construction land has attracted more and more attention from academia. In this paper, one driving force of urban expansion is selected, namely land market factor, to find out the impact of this factor on urban expansion, and it has important theoretical significance on how to guide urban construction land expansion more reasonably and effectively. Based on the data of42 cities in Henan, Hubei and Henan provinces in Central China during 2006 to 2015, this paper uses panel data model and its modified model to empirically analyze the relationship between land market factors and urban construction land expansion. The conclusions are as follows:(1) Higher level of land marketization,total transaction price in primary land market and average land transaction price through "Auction, bidding and listing" can significantly inhibit the expansion of urban construction land.(2)Higher total land transfer price of "Auction, bidding and listing" will significantly promote urban expansion.(3) The total number of land plots traded in the primary land market, total land area transferred by "Auction, bidding and listing" has no significant impact on the expansion of construction land. According to the theoretical and empirical results of this paper, some limitations and future research fields are put forward in the last part.
At present, with the acceleration of urbanization, the trend of large-scale urban construction land expansion in China is very obvious, and the area of construction land in many areas has far exceeded the quota from land use plan. Continuous expansion of urban construction land may not only bring threats to permanent basic farmland, but also lead to inefficient and disorderly development of urban itself. Studying the driving force of urban expansion and effectively restrict the large-scale expansion of construction land has attracted more and more attention from academia. In this paper, one driving force of urban expansion is selected, namely land market factor, to find out the impact of this factor on urban expansion, and it has important theoretical significance on how to guide urban construction land expansion more reasonably and effectively. Based on the data of42 cities in Henan, Hubei and Henan provinces in Central China during 2006 to 2015, this paper uses panel data model and its modified model to empirically analyze the relationship between land market factors and urban construction land expansion. The conclusions are as follows:(1) Higher level of land marketization,total transaction price in primary land market and average land transaction price through "Auction, bidding and listing" can significantly inhibit the expansion of urban construction land.(2)Higher total land transfer price of "Auction, bidding and listing" will significantly promote urban expansion.(3) The total number of land plots traded in the primary land market, total land area transferred by "Auction, bidding and listing" has no significant impact on the expansion of construction land. According to the theoretical and empirical results of this paper, some limitations and future research fields are put forward in the last part.
引文
[1]陈春,冯长春.中国建设用地变化驱动力研究[M].北京大学出版社,2014.
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[3]王玉波,恽晓方.国有土地出让方式地域差异研究——基于治理土地财政视角[J].东北大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(2):155-161.
[4]李隆伟,郭沛.中国土地市场化水平及其影响因素研究——基于2006-2011年全国31个省(市)面板数据的证据[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(4):73-79.
[5]李建建.中国城市土地市场结构研究[M].经济科学出版社,2004.
[6]钱忠好,牟燕.中国土地市场化水平:测度及分析[J].管理世界,2012,(7):67-75.
[7]李永乐,吴群.土地市场发育与农地非农化——基于省际面板数据的估计与测算[J].中国土地科学,2009,23(11):45-49.
[8]赵珂,石小平,曲福田.我国土地市场发育程度测算与实证研究——以东、中、西部为例[J].经济地理,2008,28(5):821-825.
[9]吴郁玲,曲福田,金晶.中国开发区土地市场化发育程度研究——以江苏省为例[J].中国土地科学,2008,22(1):48-54.
[10]DRISCOLL J C,KRAAY A C.Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1998,80(4):549-560.
[11]刘力豪.中国土地市场发展对城市建设用地扩张的影响研究[D].南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,2016.
1摘自《中国城市统计年鉴2016》
2 摘自《中国城市建设统计年鉴2016主要指标解释》
11981年《深圳经济特区土地管理条例》
2 《中华人民共和国土地管理法》(1988修正)
[2]朱丽娜,石晓平.中国土地出让制度改革对地方财政收入的影响分析[J].中国土地科学,2010,24(7):23-29.
[3]王玉波,恽晓方.国有土地出让方式地域差异研究——基于治理土地财政视角[J].东北大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(2):155-161.
[4]李隆伟,郭沛.中国土地市场化水平及其影响因素研究——基于2006-2011年全国31个省(市)面板数据的证据[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(4):73-79.
[5]李建建.中国城市土地市场结构研究[M].经济科学出版社,2004.
[6]钱忠好,牟燕.中国土地市场化水平:测度及分析[J].管理世界,2012,(7):67-75.
[7]李永乐,吴群.土地市场发育与农地非农化——基于省际面板数据的估计与测算[J].中国土地科学,2009,23(11):45-49.
[8]赵珂,石小平,曲福田.我国土地市场发育程度测算与实证研究——以东、中、西部为例[J].经济地理,2008,28(5):821-825.
[9]吴郁玲,曲福田,金晶.中国开发区土地市场化发育程度研究——以江苏省为例[J].中国土地科学,2008,22(1):48-54.
[10]DRISCOLL J C,KRAAY A C.Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1998,80(4):549-560.
[11]刘力豪.中国土地市场发展对城市建设用地扩张的影响研究[D].南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,2016.
1摘自《中国城市统计年鉴2016》
2 摘自《中国城市建设统计年鉴2016主要指标解释》
11981年《深圳经济特区土地管理条例》
2 《中华人民共和国土地管理法》(1988修正)