基于SNA的装配式建筑项目关键风险识别与对策
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摘要
在文献研究的基础上梳理装配式建筑风险清单,基于专家对风险关联关系的判断结果构建风险网络模型;运用社会网络分析方法(SNA)从整体网络和个体网络两方面对网络中的风险进行量化研究。结果表明:设计方案集成性差、施工过程中的目标变更、预制构件连接工艺复杂和施工成本超支是导致装配式建筑项目失败的关键风险,并在此基础上提出针对性的风险应对策略。研究成果可为装配式建筑项目风险管理提供新的思路与借鉴。
On the basis of literature research, through combing the prefabricated building risk list, the risk network model was constructed by the results from the expert's judgment on the risk correlation relationship, and then the risks were quantified by Social Network Analysis method(SNA) from entire and individual angles. The results showed it was a key factor that the poor integration of the design scheme, the target change during the construction process, the complicated connection process of the prefabricated components and the over-expenditure of the construction cost led to failure. are the key risk factors for the failure of prefabricated construction project. Based on this, a targeted risk response strategy was proposed. The research results could provide new ideas and references for the risk management of prefabricated construction projects.
On the basis of literature research, through combing the prefabricated building risk list, the risk network model was constructed by the results from the expert's judgment on the risk correlation relationship, and then the risks were quantified by Social Network Analysis method(SNA) from entire and individual angles. The results showed it was a key factor that the poor integration of the design scheme, the target change during the construction process, the complicated connection process of the prefabricated components and the over-expenditure of the construction cost led to failure. are the key risk factors for the failure of prefabricated construction project. Based on this, a targeted risk response strategy was proposed. The research results could provide new ideas and references for the risk management of prefabricated construction projects.
引文
[1] Zhang XL, Skitmore M, Peng Y. Exploring the challenges to industrialized residential building in China[J]. Habitat International, 2014,41:176-184
[2]刘敬爱.装配式建筑部品(构件)生产质量风险管理研究——以济南为例[J].建筑经济,2016,37(11):114-117
[3] Li CZ, Hong J, Xue F, et al. Schedule risks in prefabrication housing production in Hong Kong:a social network analysis[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016.134:482-494
[4]张文佳,李慧民,赵地.基于可信性测度理论的装配式建筑施工过程风险性评估[J].工业安全与环保,2017,43(8):13-17,86
[5]齐宝库,朱娅,范伟阳.装配式建筑全寿命周期风险因素识别方法[J].沈阳建筑大学学报:社会科学版,2016(3):257-261
[6]桑培东,李金晓.基于结构方程的装配式建筑项目开发建设风险评价[J].土木工程与管理学报,2017,34(4):89-95
[7]秦旋,李怀全,莫懿懿.基于SNA视角的绿色建筑项目风险网络构建与评价研究[J].土木工程学报,2017,50(2):119-131
[8]刘军.整体网分析:UCINET软件使用指南[M].第2版.上海:格致出版社,2014
[9] Burt RS. Positions in Networks[J]. Social Forces, 1976,55(1):93
[2]刘敬爱.装配式建筑部品(构件)生产质量风险管理研究——以济南为例[J].建筑经济,2016,37(11):114-117
[3] Li CZ, Hong J, Xue F, et al. Schedule risks in prefabrication housing production in Hong Kong:a social network analysis[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016.134:482-494
[4]张文佳,李慧民,赵地.基于可信性测度理论的装配式建筑施工过程风险性评估[J].工业安全与环保,2017,43(8):13-17,86
[5]齐宝库,朱娅,范伟阳.装配式建筑全寿命周期风险因素识别方法[J].沈阳建筑大学学报:社会科学版,2016(3):257-261
[6]桑培东,李金晓.基于结构方程的装配式建筑项目开发建设风险评价[J].土木工程与管理学报,2017,34(4):89-95
[7]秦旋,李怀全,莫懿懿.基于SNA视角的绿色建筑项目风险网络构建与评价研究[J].土木工程学报,2017,50(2):119-131
[8]刘军.整体网分析:UCINET软件使用指南[M].第2版.上海:格致出版社,2014
[9] Burt RS. Positions in Networks[J]. Social Forces, 1976,55(1):93