基于Fisher判别法模型的矿山安全标准化等级评价
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摘要
为简化矿山安全标准化等级评价的内容和过程,真实反映矿山安全标准化的水平,从安全管理、安全培训、安全意识、安全行为、员工参与和安全绩效6个方面,结合矿山的实际情况,选取了18个因素作为等级评价的指标,建立基于Fisher判别分析(FDA)的矿山安全标准化等级评价模型。根据矿山的安全管理水平及运行过程中存在的问题和缺陷,将安全标准化等级分为4个等级。选取16组数据作为训练样本,采用判别函数进行回检,回判估计误判率为0,并对其余4组数据作为检验样本进行判别,判别率为100%。最后,利用该模型对5家金属矿山安全标准化的指标数据进行预测,预测结果与实际情况一致。研究结果表明:该模型在评价矿山安全标准化等级中可靠性高且判别准确。该评价模型为矿山安全标准化的建设提供了方向和途径,有利于矿山安全管理水平的提高。
In hoping to simplify the content and the process of mine safety standardization evaluation grade and reflect the level of mine safety standardization truly,a mine safety standardization grade evaluation system was setted up. 18 factors were selected as grade evaluation index from six aspects by combining actual situation of mines which are safety management,safety training,safety awareness,safety behavior,employee participation,safety performance mines. The grade evaluation index can provide ideas and reference for the construction of mine safety standardization.Then,the Fisher discriminant analysis(FDA)of mining safety standardization grade evaluation model was established. 16 sets of data were selected as training samples,the discriminant function was used to check back,the estimated false positive rate was 0,and the other 4 sets of data were used as test samples,the discriminant rate was 100%.Finally,the model is used to predict the index data of five metal mines safety standardization,where the results are consistent with the actual situation.The study results show that the model applied in the evaluation of mine safety standardization grade is high reliable,the discrimination is accurate. It has become clear that the evaluated model can provided the direction and the way for constructing mine safety standardization which is conducive to the improvement of the level of safety management in mines.
In hoping to simplify the content and the process of mine safety standardization evaluation grade and reflect the level of mine safety standardization truly,a mine safety standardization grade evaluation system was setted up. 18 factors were selected as grade evaluation index from six aspects by combining actual situation of mines which are safety management,safety training,safety awareness,safety behavior,employee participation,safety performance mines. The grade evaluation index can provide ideas and reference for the construction of mine safety standardization.Then,the Fisher discriminant analysis(FDA)of mining safety standardization grade evaluation model was established. 16 sets of data were selected as training samples,the discriminant function was used to check back,the estimated false positive rate was 0,and the other 4 sets of data were used as test samples,the discriminant rate was 100%.Finally,the model is used to predict the index data of five metal mines safety standardization,where the results are consistent with the actual situation.The study results show that the model applied in the evaluation of mine safety standardization grade is high reliable,the discrimination is accurate. It has become clear that the evaluated model can provided the direction and the way for constructing mine safety standardization which is conducive to the improvement of the level of safety management in mines.
引文
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[13]范玉凯.煤矿班组安全文化的评价与建设[D].西安:西安科技大学,2010.Fan Yukai.Evaluation and Construction of Coal Mine Team’s Safety Culture[D].Xi’an:Xi’an University of Science and Technology,2010.
[14]李宇静,刘义.安全培训的有效性分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014(10):204-210.Li Yujing,Liu Yi.Safety training effectiveness analysis[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2014(10):204-210.
[15]王庆云.安全生产培训体系的理论研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,5(1):193-197.Wang Qingyun.Theoretical research on training system of work safety[J].Journal of Safety Science an Technology,2009,5(1):193-197.
[16]杨辰飞,陈雪波,孙秋柏.企业员工安全意识影响因素的探索和分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(1):34-39.Yang Chenfei,Chen Xuebo,Sun Qiubai.Exploration and analysis of factors influencing employees safety awareness[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(1):34-39.
[17]寇丽平.从事故特性谈人的安全意识的培养[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(12):17-21.Kou Liping.Discussion on development of safety awareness from characteristics of accident[J].China Safety Science Journal,2003,13(12):17-21.
[18]牛莉霞,李乃文,姜群山.安全领导、安全动机与安全行为的结构方程模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(4):23-29.Niu Lixia,Li Naiwen,Jiang Qunshan.SEM of safety leadership,safety motivation and safety behavior[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(4):23-29.
[2]王志,郭勇.基于神经网络的地下非煤矿安全评价模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(2):124-128.Wang Zhi,Guo Yong.Safety assessment model of underground non-coal mine based on BP Neural Network[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(2):124-128.
[3]陈璐,史秀志,陈沅江.基于成熟度模型的金属非金属矿山安全标准化体系评估研究[J].安全与环境学报,2013,13(1):224-228.Chen Lu,Shi Xiuzhi,Chen Yuanjiang.Study on metal and nonmetal mining safety standardization system evaluation based on the maturity model[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2013,13(1):224-228.
[4]陈亮,邬长福,陈祖云,等.基于AHP-模糊综合评价法非煤露天矿山安全标准化复评体系研究[J].矿业研究与开发,2016,36(4):99-103.Chen Liang,Wu Changfu,Chen Zuyun,et al.Study on the reevaluation system of non-coal open-pit mine safety standardization by AHP-Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J].Mining Research and Development,2016,36(4):99-103.
[5]李鸿志,邹树梁,赵然,等.基于层次模糊综合评价的安全标准化成熟度评价[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(2):38-42.Li Hongzhi,Zou Shuliang,Zhao Ran,et al.Evaluation study of the maturity indexes for safety criteria based on the hierarchical analysis and comprehensive fuzzy processing method[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2015,15(2):38-42.
[6]张芳燕,史秀志,陈沅江,等.基于未确知测度模型的非煤矿山安全标准化运行状况评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(8):144-149.Zhang Fangyan,Shi Xiuzhi,Chen Yuanjiang,et al.Evaluating operation of non-coal mines safety standardization based on unascertained measurement model[J].China Safety Science Journal,2012,22(8):144-149.
[7]史秀志,赵艳艳,张舒.基于B/S+C/S矿山安全标准化管理信息系统研究[J].安全与环境学报,2009,9(6):143-147.Shi Xiuzhi,Zhao Yanyan,Zhang Shu,et al.On the mining safety standardization of information system management based on C/S and B/S development[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2009,9(6):143-147.
[8]李春民,王云海,胡家国,等.金属非金属矿山安全标准化的核心思想和理论基础探讨[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(1):92-96.Li Chunmin,Wang Yunhai,Hu Jiaguo,et al.Study on core idea and rationale of safety standardization in metal and nonmetal mine[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2012,8(1):92-96.
[9]付玉华,王兴明.岩体质量分级的Fisher判别分析模型及应用[J].金属矿山,2012(12):106-110.Fu Yuhua,Wang Xingming.Study and application of Fisher discriminant analysis model to classification of rock mass quality[J].Metal Mine,2012(12):106-110.
[10]邵良杉,徐波.基于Fisher判别分析的冲击地压危险性等级预测[J].金属矿山,2015(1):138-144.Shao Liangbin,Xu Bo.Prediction on classification of rock burst hazard based on Fisher discriminant analysis[J].Metal Mine,2015(1):138-144.
[11]高红霞,杨迪,苏理云,等.基于Fisher模型的NBA季后赛资格预测[J].重庆理工大学学报(自然科学版),2015(9):126-130.Gao Hongxia,Yang Di,Su Liyun,et al.Predicting playoff of NBA based on Fisher linear discriminant[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Technology(Natural Science),2015(9):126-130.
[12]史秀志,周健.用Fisher判别法评价矿井通风系统安全可靠性[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2010,27(4):562-567.Shi Xiuzhi,Zhou Jian.Reliability assessment for mine ventilation system safety using Fisher discriminant analysis[J].Journal of Mining and Safety Engineering,2010,27(4):562-567.
[13]范玉凯.煤矿班组安全文化的评价与建设[D].西安:西安科技大学,2010.Fan Yukai.Evaluation and Construction of Coal Mine Team’s Safety Culture[D].Xi’an:Xi’an University of Science and Technology,2010.
[14]李宇静,刘义.安全培训的有效性分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014(10):204-210.Li Yujing,Liu Yi.Safety training effectiveness analysis[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2014(10):204-210.
[15]王庆云.安全生产培训体系的理论研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,5(1):193-197.Wang Qingyun.Theoretical research on training system of work safety[J].Journal of Safety Science an Technology,2009,5(1):193-197.
[16]杨辰飞,陈雪波,孙秋柏.企业员工安全意识影响因素的探索和分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(1):34-39.Yang Chenfei,Chen Xuebo,Sun Qiubai.Exploration and analysis of factors influencing employees safety awareness[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(1):34-39.
[17]寇丽平.从事故特性谈人的安全意识的培养[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(12):17-21.Kou Liping.Discussion on development of safety awareness from characteristics of accident[J].China Safety Science Journal,2003,13(12):17-21.
[18]牛莉霞,李乃文,姜群山.安全领导、安全动机与安全行为的结构方程模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(4):23-29.Niu Lixia,Li Naiwen,Jiang Qunshan.SEM of safety leadership,safety motivation and safety behavior[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(4):23-29.