基于知识网络的技术预见研究
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摘要
本文提出了一种基于知识网络的技术预见方法。以2011-2015年间的1101项与纳米技术相关的专利数据为例,以专利所包含知识的组合潜力、组合机会、多样性和独特性为指标,使用K均值聚类法把专利聚成两类。通过对组合潜力、组合机会、多样性和独特性高的一类专利的内容分析,挖掘出纳米技术研究的热门领域和发展趋势。以2017年的纳米技术相关专利数据验证了该方法的有效性。
This paper proposes a novel approach to forecast technology development based on a knowledge network. Taking the data of 1101 nanotechnology-related patents from 2011 to 2015 as an example, using the patents' knowledge combinatorial potential, combinatorial opportunities, diversity and uniqueness as indexes, we employ K-means clustering to divide the patents into two classes. By analyzing the content of the patent cluster with high knowledge combinatorial potential, combinatorial opportunities, diversity and uniqueness, hot fields and development trends of nanotechnology research are extracted. The effectiveness of the method is tested by using the data of nanotechnology-related patents in 2017.
This paper proposes a novel approach to forecast technology development based on a knowledge network. Taking the data of 1101 nanotechnology-related patents from 2011 to 2015 as an example, using the patents' knowledge combinatorial potential, combinatorial opportunities, diversity and uniqueness as indexes, we employ K-means clustering to divide the patents into two classes. By analyzing the content of the patent cluster with high knowledge combinatorial potential, combinatorial opportunities, diversity and uniqueness, hot fields and development trends of nanotechnology research are extracted. The effectiveness of the method is tested by using the data of nanotechnology-related patents in 2017.
引文
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[15] Jen C T.Social Ties,knowledge diversity and individual creativity[J].Journal of Business Studies Quarterly,2014,6(2):110-124.
[16] Jiancheng Guan,Jingjing Zhang,Yan Yan.The impact of multilevel networks on innovation[J].Research Policy,2015,44:545-559.
[17] Youn K J,et al.Understanding network formation in strategy research:Exponential random graph models[J].Strategic Management Journal,2016,37:22-44.
[18] Harris J,杨冠灿.指数随机图模型导论[M].上海:格致出版社,2016:83-84.
[19] Kim G,Bae J.A novel approach to forecast promising technology through patent analysis[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2017,117:228-237.
[2] Altuntas S,Dereli T,Kusiak A.Forecasting technology success based on patent data[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2015,96:202-214.
[3] Park Y,Yoon J.Application technology opportunity discovery from technology portfolios:Use of patent classification and collaborative filtering[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2017,118:170-183.
[4] Songb K,Kimc K S,Lee S.Discovering new technology opportunities based on patents:Text-mining and F-term analysis[J].Technovation,2017,60-61:1-14.
[5] Choi J,Hwang Y-S.Patent keyword network analysis for improving technology development efficiency[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2014,83:170-182.
[6] Song K,Kim K,Lee S.Identifying promising technologies using patents:A retrospective feature analysis and a prospective needs analysis on outlier patents[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2018,128:118-132.
[7] Kyebambe M N,et al.Forecasting emerging technologies:A supervised learning approach through patent analysis[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2017,125:236-244.
[8] 王效岳,赵冬晓,白如江.基于专利文本数据挖掘的技术预测方法与实证研究[J].情报理论与实践,2017,(4):106-110.
[9] Brennecke J,Rank O.The firm’s knowledge network and the transfer of advice among corporate inventors—A multilevel network study[J].Research Policy,2017,46:768-783.
[10] Guan J,Liu N.Exploitative and exploratory innovations in knowledge network and collaboration network:A patent analysis in the technological field of nano-energy[J].Research Policy,2016,45:97-112.
[11] 付雅宁,刘凤朝,马荣康.发明人合作网络影响企业探索式创新的机制研究[J].研究与发展管理,2018,(4):21-32.
[12] Carnabuci G,Bruggeman J.Knowledge specialization,knowledge brokerage and the uneven growth of technology domains[J].Social Forces,2009,88:607-641.
[13] Chunlei Wang,et al.Knowledge networks,collaboration networks,and exploratory innovation[J].Academy of Management Journal,2014,57,(2):484-514.
[14] Carnabuci G,Operti E.Where do firms’ recombinant capabilities come from?Intraorganizational networks,knowledge,and firms’ ability to innovate through technological recombination[J].Strategic Management Journal,2013,34:1591-1613.
[15] Jen C T.Social Ties,knowledge diversity and individual creativity[J].Journal of Business Studies Quarterly,2014,6(2):110-124.
[16] Jiancheng Guan,Jingjing Zhang,Yan Yan.The impact of multilevel networks on innovation[J].Research Policy,2015,44:545-559.
[17] Youn K J,et al.Understanding network formation in strategy research:Exponential random graph models[J].Strategic Management Journal,2016,37:22-44.
[18] Harris J,杨冠灿.指数随机图模型导论[M].上海:格致出版社,2016:83-84.
[19] Kim G,Bae J.A novel approach to forecast promising technology through patent analysis[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2017,117:228-237.