基于FloodArea模型的小流域山洪灾害临界雨量阈值初探
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摘要
针对缺乏水位流量资料的山区小流域地区山洪临界雨量难以确定的问题,以四川省南江河上游流域作为研究区域,基于德国Geomer公司开发的二维非恒定流水动力模型"FloodArea",利用流域逐时降雨资料,地形高程数据以及土地利用数据,重现南江"6·28"山洪暴发的动态演进过程,对模拟得到的逐时淹没深度与1~24 h累积流域面雨量求相关,选取预警点淹没深度与累积面雨量的相关系数最高的时效作为预警点致灾临界雨量阈值的预报时效,通过建立预警点淹没深度与预报时效累积面雨量的回归方程,从而获取预警点不同风险等级的临界雨量阈值。结果表明:FloodArea模型能够较好地呈现出此次典型山洪的暴发过程,通过对不同地势预警点临界雨量阈值的对比,最终选取地势较低,位于河流汇口地带、风险等级较高的上两九义校作为南江河上游流域山洪风险预警点。
The "6 ·28"flash flood event in Nanjiang River,Sichuan,China,was examined through model simulation by using the tw o-dimensional hydrological dynamics model FloodArea,developed by Geomer GmbH,in combination with rainfall data,DEMand land utilization data. Based on the correlation betw een the simulated hourly water level and the accumulated area rainfall,choosing the given duration with the highest correlation coefficient as the threshold rainfall required to produce flash flooding in the study areas,guidance product of different pre-w arning flash flood can be obtained. Model analyses suggest that the simulated results of FloodArea fairly close to the actual flash flood process. Through the comparison and analysis of the threshold rainfall over different terrains,the Shangliang Jiuyixiao,w hich located at a confluence,is chosen to be the flash flood pre-w arning point of the Nanjiang River basin.
The "6 ·28"flash flood event in Nanjiang River,Sichuan,China,was examined through model simulation by using the tw o-dimensional hydrological dynamics model FloodArea,developed by Geomer GmbH,in combination with rainfall data,DEMand land utilization data. Based on the correlation betw een the simulated hourly water level and the accumulated area rainfall,choosing the given duration with the highest correlation coefficient as the threshold rainfall required to produce flash flooding in the study areas,guidance product of different pre-w arning flash flood can be obtained. Model analyses suggest that the simulated results of FloodArea fairly close to the actual flash flood process. Through the comparison and analysis of the threshold rainfall over different terrains,the Shangliang Jiuyixiao,w hich located at a confluence,is chosen to be the flash flood pre-w arning point of the Nanjiang River basin.
引文
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[20]Zhang Guocai. Risk assessment and zoning method for meteorological disasters[M]. Beijing:China M eteorological Press,2010.[章国材.气象灾害风险评估与区划方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2010.]
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[2] Koren V,Finnerty B,Schaake J,et al. Scale dependencies of hydrologic models to spatial variability of precipitation[J]. Journal of Hydrology,1999,217(3/4):285-302.
[3] Koren V,Smith M,Wang D,et al. 2. 16 use of soil property data in the derivation of conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameters[C]//Proceedings of the 15th Conference on Hydrology.Long Beach, California:American M eteorological Society,2000:103-106.
[4] Reed S,Johnson D,Sweeney T. Application and national geographic information system database to support tw o-year flood and threshold runoff estimates[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2002,7(3):209-219.
[5] Carpenter T,Sperfslage J,Georgakakos K,et al. National threshold runoff estimation utilizing GIS in support of operational flash flood w arning systems[J]. Journal of Hydrology,1999,224(1/2):21-44.
[6] Li De,Chen Guangcai,Xie Ping,et al. Estimation of the critical rainfall resulting in outburst of floods and debris flow s in the ungauged areas inrümqi,Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography,2005,28(4):441-444.[李德,陈广才,谢平,等.乌鲁木齐市无资料地区山洪泥石流临界雨量推求[J].干旱区地理,2005,28(4):441-444.]
[7] Zhang Yulong,Wang Long,Li Jing,et al. Research into spacial gridding analysis methods on critical rainfall of mountain disasters in Yunnan Province[J]. Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University(Natural Science),2007,22(4):571-581.[张玉龙,王龙,李靖,等.云南省山洪灾害临界雨量空间插值分析方法研究[J].云南农业大学学报(自然科学),2007,22(4):571-581.]
[8] Duan Shengrong. Analysis of computation results of critical rainfall causing flood disasters in representative small basins[J].Water Resources Planning and Design,2009,57(2):20-21.[段生荣.典型小流域山洪灾害临界雨量计算分析[J].水利规划与设计,2009,57(2):20-21.]
[9] Huang Chenlu,Yang Qinke,Huang Weidong,et al. Analyzing the hydrological characteristics and differentiation over the typical small basins in the upper reaches of the Weihe River[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(5):1312-1322.[黄晨璐,杨勤科,黄维东,等.渭河上游典型小流域水文特征差异性分析[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(5):1312-1322.]
[10] Ruan Hongwei,Zou Songbing,Lu Zhixiang,et al. Coupling SWAT and RIEM S to simulate mountainous runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River basin[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2017,39(2):384-394.[阮宏威,邹松兵,陆志翔,等.耦合SWAT与RIEMS模拟黑河干流山区径流[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(2):384-394.]
[11]Yin Zhenliang,Feng Qi,Liu Shiyin,et al. The application progress of hydrological model in quantifying the contribution of glacier runoff to total w atershed runoff[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(1):248-258.[尹振良,冯起,刘时银,等.水文模型在估算冰川径流研究中的应用现状[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(1):248-258.]
[12] Gemmer M. Decision support for flood risk management at the Yangtze River by GIS/RS based flood damage estimation[M].Giessen:Shaker,2004.
[13]Geomer. FloodArea-Arcview extension for calculating flooded areas(User manual Version 2. 4)[M]. Heidelberg:Geomer Gmph,2003.
[14]Su Buda,Jiang Tong,Guo Yeyou,et al. GIS raster data-based dynamic flood risk simulation model and its application[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences Edition),2005,33(4):370-374.[苏布达,姜彤,郭业友,等.基于GIS栅格数据的洪水风险动态模拟模型及应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2005,33(4):370-374.]
[15]Wen Mingzhang,Lin Xin,You Lijun,et al. Risk rainfall assessment methods of flash floods disaster[J]. M eteorological M onthly,2013,39(10):1325-1330.[文明章,林昕,游立军,等.山洪灾害风险雨量评估方法研究[J].气象,2013,39(10):1325-1330.]
[16]Fan Jianyong,Shan Jiusheng,Guan Min,et al. Research on analysis and calculation method of critical precipitation of mountain torrents in Jiangxi Province[J]. M eteorological M onthly,2014,38(9):1110-1114.[樊建勇,单九生,管珉,等.江西省小流域山洪灾害临界雨量计算分析[J].气象,2012,38(9):1110-1114.]
[17]Barfuss S,Tullis J. Friction factor tests on high density polyethylene pipe[R/OL]. Logan,Utah:Utah Water Research Laboratory,Utah State University,1988[2017-06-05]. https://digitalcommons. usu. edu/cgi/view content. cgi? article=1611&context=w ater_rep.
[18]Feng Chang,Mao Dehua,Zhou Hui,et al. Impacts of climate and land use changes on runoff in the Lianshui basin[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2017,39(2):395-406.[冯畅,毛德华,周慧,等.气候与土地利用变化对涟水流域径流的影响[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(2):395-406.]
[19]Jiang Zhihuai,Zhang Yizhi,Cai Zhe,et al. Simulation of flood disasters based on embedded river raster[J]. M eteorological M onthly,2014,40(8):1013-1018.[姜智怀,章毅之,蔡哲,等.基于嵌入河道栅格的山洪灾害淹没模拟[J].气象,2014,40(8):1013-1018.]
[20]Zhang Guocai. Risk assessment and zoning method for meteorological disasters[M]. Beijing:China M eteorological Press,2010.[章国材.气象灾害风险评估与区划方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2010.]
[21]Zhang Guocai. Forecast and risk assessment of rainstorm[M].Beijing:China M eteorological Press,2012.[章国材.暴雨洪涝预报与风险评估[M].北京:气象出版社,2012.]