A 1556 year-long early summer moisture reconstruction for the Hexi Corridor, Northwestern China
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摘要
We report a 1556 year-long tree-ring width chronology for the Hexi Corridor, in the arid Northwestern China,established by applying the signal-free regional curve standardization method to 416 juniper ring-width series. We found that drought in early summer(May–June) is the primary controlling factor for tree growth in this area. We then developed an early summer moisture(i.e., scPDSI) reconstruction from 455 CE to present. Our reconstruction captures multi-centennial scale moisture variations, showing two long-term dry periods during 800–950 CE and 1000–1200 CE, and two long-term wet periods during 1200–1450 CE and 1510–1620 CE. We found strong similarities between hydroclimatic changes in the Hexi Corridor and Qaidam Basin from interannual to centennial timescales; however, at multi-centennial(>300 years) timescales, hydroclimatic variations in the two regions showed significant regional differences. The Hexi Corridor witnessed a generally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA, here 800–1200 CE) and the drying 20 th century, whereas the Qaidam Basin experienced highprecipitation periods during the MCA and 20 th century. The different correlation pattern with Northern Hemisphere temperature suggest that the Qaidam Basin will receive more precipitation under global warming, whereas the Hexi Corridor will become dryer in the future.
We report a 1556 year-long tree-ring width chronology for the Hexi Corridor, in the arid Northwestern China,established by applying the signal-free regional curve standardization method to 416 juniper ring-width series. We found that drought in early summer(May–June) is the primary controlling factor for tree growth in this area. We then developed an early summer moisture(i.e., scPDSI) reconstruction from 455 CE to present. Our reconstruction captures multi-centennial scale moisture variations, showing two long-term dry periods during 800–950 CE and 1000–1200 CE, and two long-term wet periods during 1200–1450 CE and 1510–1620 CE. We found strong similarities between hydroclimatic changes in the Hexi Corridor and Qaidam Basin from interannual to centennial timescales; however, at multi-centennial(>300 years) timescales, hydroclimatic variations in the two regions showed significant regional differences. The Hexi Corridor witnessed a generally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA, here 800–1200 CE) and the drying 20 th century, whereas the Qaidam Basin experienced highprecipitation periods during the MCA and 20 th century. The different correlation pattern with Northern Hemisphere temperature suggest that the Qaidam Basin will receive more precipitation under global warming, whereas the Hexi Corridor will become dryer in the future.
We report a 1556 year-long tree-ring width chronology for the Hexi Corridor, in the arid Northwestern China,established by applying the signal-free regional curve standardization method to 416 juniper ring-width series. We found that drought in early summer(May–June) is the primary controlling factor for tree growth in this area. We then developed an early summer moisture(i.e., scPDSI) reconstruction from 455 CE to present. Our reconstruction captures multi-centennial scale moisture variations, showing two long-term dry periods during 800–950 CE and 1000–1200 CE, and two long-term wet periods during 1200–1450 CE and 1510–1620 CE. We found strong similarities between hydroclimatic changes in the Hexi Corridor and Qaidam Basin from interannual to centennial timescales; however, at multi-centennial(>300 years) timescales, hydroclimatic variations in the two regions showed significant regional differences. The Hexi Corridor witnessed a generally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA, here 800–1200 CE) and the drying 20 th century, whereas the Qaidam Basin experienced highprecipitation periods during the MCA and 20 th century. The different correlation pattern with Northern Hemisphere temperature suggest that the Qaidam Basin will receive more precipitation under global warming, whereas the Hexi Corridor will become dryer in the future.
引文
Anchukaitis K J,Wilson R,Briffa K R,Büntgen U,Cook E R,D’Arrigo R,Davi N,Esper J,Frank D,Gunnarson B E,Hegerl G,Helama S,Klesse S,Krusic P J,Linderholm H W,Myglan V,Osborn T J,Zhang P,Rydval M,Schneider L,Schurer A,Wiles G,Zorita E.2017.Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings:Part II,spatially resolved reconstructions.Quat Sci Rev,163:1-22
Büntgen U,Tegel W,Nicolussi K,McCormick M,Frank D,Trouet V,Kaplan J O,Herzig F,Heussner K U,Wanner H,Luterbacher J,Esper J.2011.2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility.Science,331:578-582
Briffa K R,Melvin T M.2011.A closer look at regional curve standardization of tree-ring records:Justification of the need,a warning of some pitfalls,and suggested improvements in its application.In:Hughes M K,Diaz H F,Swetnam T W,eds.Dendroclimatology:Progress and Prospects.New York:Springer
Buckley B M,Anchukaitis K J,Penny D,Fletcher R,Cook E R,Sano M,Canh Nam L,Wichienkeeo A,That Minh T,Hong T M.2010.Climate as a contributing factor in the demise of Angkor,Cambodia.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,107:6748-6752
Chen F,Yuan Y,Wei W,Zhang R,Yu S,Shang H,Zhang T,Qin L,Wang H,Chen F.2013.Tree-ring-based annual precipitation reconstruction for the Hexi Corridor,NW China:Consequences for climate history on and beyond the mid-latitude Asian continent.Boreas,42:1008-1021
Chen J,Chen F,Feng S,Huang W,Liu J,Zhou A.2015.Hydroclimatic changes in China and surroundings during the medieval climate anomaly and Little Ice Age:Spatial patterns and possible mechanisms.Quat Sci Rev,107:98-111
Cook B I,Ault T R,Smerdon J E.2015.Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and central plains.Sci Adv,1:e1400082
Cook E.1985.A time-series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization.Doctoral Dissertation.Tucson:The University of Arizona
Cook E R,Anchukaitis K J,Buckley B M,D’Arrigo R D,Jacoby G C,Wright W E.2010.Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium.Science,328:486-489
Cook E R,Briffa K R,Jones P D.1994.Spatial regression methods in dendroclimatology:A review and comparison of two techniques.Int JClimatol,14:379-402
Cook E R,Briffa K R,Meko D M,Graybill D A,Funkhouser G.1995.The‘segment length curse’in long tree-ring chronology development for palaeoclimatic studies.Holocene,5:229-237
Cook E R,Peters K.1997.Calculating unbiased tree-ring indices for the study of climatic and environmental change.Holocene,7:361-370
Dai A.2013.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models.Nat Clim Change,3:52-58
Deng Y,Gou X,Gao L,Zhao Z,Cao Z,Yang M.2012.Aridity changes in the eastern Qilian Mountains since AD 1856 reconstructed from treerings.Quat Int,283:78-84
Diaz H F,Trigo R,Hughes M K,Mann M E,Xoplaki E,Barriopedro D.2011.Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate in Medieval Times revisited.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,92:1487-1500
Esper J,Cook E R,Krusic P J,Peters K.2003.Tests of the RCS method for preserving low-frequency variability in long tree-ring chronologies.Tree-Ring Res,59:81-98
Esper J,Frank D,Büntgen U,Kirdyanov A.2009.Influence of pith offset on tree-ring chronology trend.Trace,7:205-210
Fang K,Frank D,Zhao Y,Zhou F,Sepp?H.2015.Moisture stress of a hydrological year on tree growth in the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings.Environ Res Lett,10:034010
Fang K,Gou X,Chen F,Li J,D’Arrigo R,Cook E,Yang T,Davi N.2009.Reconstructed droughts for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past 568 years and its linkages to the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean climate variability.Clim Dyn,35:577-585
Fritts H C.1976.Tree Rings and Climate.London:Academic Press
Gou X,Deng Y,Gao L,Chen F,Cook E,Yang M,Zhang F.2015a.Millennium tree-ring reconstruction of drought variability in the eastern Qilian Mountains,northwest China.Clim Dyn,45:1761-1770
Gou X,Gao L,Deng Y,Chen F,Yang M,Still C.2015b.An 850-year treering-based reconstruction of drought history in the western Qilian Mountains of northwestern China.Int J Climatol,35:3308-3319
Graham N E,Ammann C M,Fleitmann D,Cobb K M,Luterbacher J.2010.Support for global climate reorganization during the“Medieval Climate Anomaly”.Clim Dyn,37:1217-1245
Holmes R.1983.Computer assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement.Tree-Ring Bull,43:69-78
Huang J,Yu H,Dai A,Wei Y,Kang L.2017.Drylands face potential threat under 2°C global warming target.Nat Clim Change,7:417-422
Huang J,Yu H,Guan X,Wang G,Guo R.2015.Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change.Nat Clim Change,6:166-171
Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,Wu M C,Shih H H,Zheng Q,Yen N C,Tung C C,Liu H H.1998.The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis.Proc R Soc Lond Ser A-Math Phys Eng Sci,454:903-995
Kang S,Yang B,Qin C.2012.Recent tree-growth reduction in north central China as a combined result of a weakened monsoon and atmospheric oscillations.Clim Change,115:519-536
Li J,Cook E R,D’Arrigo R,Chen F,Gou X.2008.Moisture variability across China and Mongolia:1951-2005.Clim Dyn,32:1173-1186
Li J,Shi J,Zhang D D,Yang B,Fang K,Yue P H.2017.Moisture increase in response to high-altitude warming evidenced by tree-rings on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.Clim Dyn,48:649-660
Li Q,Liu Y,Nakatsuka T,Fang K,Song H,Liu R,Sun C,Li G,Wang K.2018.East Asian Summer Monsoon moisture sustains summer relative humidity in the southwestern Gobi Desert,China:Evidence fromδ18Oof tree rings.Clim Dyn,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4515-6
Liang E,Shao X,Liu X.2009.Annual precipitation variation inferred from tree rings since AD 1770 for the Western Qilian Mts.,Northern Tibetan Plateau.Tree-Ring Res,65:95-103
Liang E,Leuschner C,Dulamsuren C,Wagner B,Hauck M.2016a.Global warming-related tree growth decline and mortality on the north-eastern Tibetan plateau.Clim Change,134:163-176
Liang E,Wang Y,Piao S,Lu X,Camarero J J,Zhu H,Zhu L,Ellison A M,Ciais P,Pe?uelas J.2016b.Species interactions slow warming-induced upward shifts of treelines on the Tibetan Plateau.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,113:4380-4385
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Liu Y,Sun C,Li Q,Cai Q.2016.A picea crassifolia tree-ring width-based temperature reconstruction for the Mt.Dongda region,Northwest China,and its relationship to large-scale climate forcing.PLoS ONE,11:e0160963
Ljungqvist F C,Krusic P J,Brattstr?m G,Sundqvist H S.2012.Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries.Clim Past,8:227-249
Ljungqvist F C,Krusic P J,Sundqvist H S,Zorita E,Brattstr?m G,Frank D.2016.Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate variability over the past twelve centuries.Nature,532:94-98
Melvin T M,Briffa K R.2008.A“signal-free”approach to dendroclimatic standardisation.Dendrochronologia,26:71-86
Melvin T M,Briffa K R.2014.CRUST:Software for the implementation of regional chronology standardisation:Part 1.Signal-Free RCS.Dendrochronologia,32:7-20
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Pederson N,Hessl A E,Baatarbileg N,Anchukaitis K J,Di Cosmo N.2014.Pluvials,droughts,the Mongol Empire,and modern Mongolia.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,111:4275-4379
Qin C,Yang B,Melvin T M,Fan Z,Zhao Y,Briffa K R.2013.Radial growth of Qilian Juniper on the Northeast Tibetan Plateau and potential climate associations.PLoS ONE,8:e79362
Shao X,Liang E,Huang L,Wang L.2005.A 1437-year precipitation history from Qilian juniper in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.PAGES news,13:14-15
Shao X,Xu Y,Yin Z Y,Liang E,Zhu H,Wang S.2010.Climatic implications of a 3585-year tree-ring width chronology from the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.Quat Sci Rev,29:2111-2122
Sheppard P R,Tarasov P E,Graumlich L J,Heussner K U,Wagner M,wsterle H,Thompson L G.2004.Annual precipitation since 515 BCreconstructed from living and fossil juniper growth of northeastern Qinghai Province,China.Clim Dyn,23:869-881
Tian Q,Gou X,Zhang Y,Peng J,Wang J,Chen T.2007.Tree-Ring Based Drought Reconstruction(AD 1855-2001)for the Qilian Mountains,Northwestern China.Tree-Ring Res,63:27-36
van der Schrier G,Barichivich J,Briffa K R,Jones P D.2013.A scPDSI-based global data set of dry and wet spells for 1901-2009.J Geophys Res-Atmos,118:4025-4048
Wang J,Yang B,Ljungqvist F C,Luterbacher J,Osborn T J,Briffa K R,Zorita E.2017.Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1200 years.Nat Geosci,10:512-517
Wang J,Yang B,Qin C,Kang S,He M,Wang Z.2014.Tree-ring inferred annual mean temperature variations on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the last millennium and their relationships with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.Clim Dyn,43:627-640
Wang W Z,Liu X H,Xu G B,Shao X M,Qin D H,Sun W Z,An W L,Zeng X M.2013.Moisture variations over the past millennium characterized by Qaidam Basin tree-ringδ18O.Chin Sci Bull,58:3956-3961
Wang Z,Yang B,Deslauriers A,Br?uning A.2015.Intra-annual stem radial increment response of Qilian juniper to temperature and precipitation along an altitudinal gradient in northwestern China.Trees,29:25-34
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Büntgen U,Tegel W,Nicolussi K,McCormick M,Frank D,Trouet V,Kaplan J O,Herzig F,Heussner K U,Wanner H,Luterbacher J,Esper J.2011.2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility.Science,331:578-582
Briffa K R,Melvin T M.2011.A closer look at regional curve standardization of tree-ring records:Justification of the need,a warning of some pitfalls,and suggested improvements in its application.In:Hughes M K,Diaz H F,Swetnam T W,eds.Dendroclimatology:Progress and Prospects.New York:Springer
Buckley B M,Anchukaitis K J,Penny D,Fletcher R,Cook E R,Sano M,Canh Nam L,Wichienkeeo A,That Minh T,Hong T M.2010.Climate as a contributing factor in the demise of Angkor,Cambodia.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,107:6748-6752
Chen F,Yuan Y,Wei W,Zhang R,Yu S,Shang H,Zhang T,Qin L,Wang H,Chen F.2013.Tree-ring-based annual precipitation reconstruction for the Hexi Corridor,NW China:Consequences for climate history on and beyond the mid-latitude Asian continent.Boreas,42:1008-1021
Chen J,Chen F,Feng S,Huang W,Liu J,Zhou A.2015.Hydroclimatic changes in China and surroundings during the medieval climate anomaly and Little Ice Age:Spatial patterns and possible mechanisms.Quat Sci Rev,107:98-111
Cook B I,Ault T R,Smerdon J E.2015.Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and central plains.Sci Adv,1:e1400082
Cook E.1985.A time-series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization.Doctoral Dissertation.Tucson:The University of Arizona
Cook E R,Anchukaitis K J,Buckley B M,D’Arrigo R D,Jacoby G C,Wright W E.2010.Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium.Science,328:486-489
Cook E R,Briffa K R,Jones P D.1994.Spatial regression methods in dendroclimatology:A review and comparison of two techniques.Int JClimatol,14:379-402
Cook E R,Briffa K R,Meko D M,Graybill D A,Funkhouser G.1995.The‘segment length curse’in long tree-ring chronology development for palaeoclimatic studies.Holocene,5:229-237
Cook E R,Peters K.1997.Calculating unbiased tree-ring indices for the study of climatic and environmental change.Holocene,7:361-370
Dai A.2013.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models.Nat Clim Change,3:52-58
Deng Y,Gou X,Gao L,Zhao Z,Cao Z,Yang M.2012.Aridity changes in the eastern Qilian Mountains since AD 1856 reconstructed from treerings.Quat Int,283:78-84
Diaz H F,Trigo R,Hughes M K,Mann M E,Xoplaki E,Barriopedro D.2011.Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate in Medieval Times revisited.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,92:1487-1500
Esper J,Cook E R,Krusic P J,Peters K.2003.Tests of the RCS method for preserving low-frequency variability in long tree-ring chronologies.Tree-Ring Res,59:81-98
Esper J,Frank D,Büntgen U,Kirdyanov A.2009.Influence of pith offset on tree-ring chronology trend.Trace,7:205-210
Fang K,Frank D,Zhao Y,Zhou F,Sepp?H.2015.Moisture stress of a hydrological year on tree growth in the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings.Environ Res Lett,10:034010
Fang K,Gou X,Chen F,Li J,D’Arrigo R,Cook E,Yang T,Davi N.2009.Reconstructed droughts for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past 568 years and its linkages to the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean climate variability.Clim Dyn,35:577-585
Fritts H C.1976.Tree Rings and Climate.London:Academic Press
Gou X,Deng Y,Gao L,Chen F,Cook E,Yang M,Zhang F.2015a.Millennium tree-ring reconstruction of drought variability in the eastern Qilian Mountains,northwest China.Clim Dyn,45:1761-1770
Gou X,Gao L,Deng Y,Chen F,Yang M,Still C.2015b.An 850-year treering-based reconstruction of drought history in the western Qilian Mountains of northwestern China.Int J Climatol,35:3308-3319
Graham N E,Ammann C M,Fleitmann D,Cobb K M,Luterbacher J.2010.Support for global climate reorganization during the“Medieval Climate Anomaly”.Clim Dyn,37:1217-1245
Holmes R.1983.Computer assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement.Tree-Ring Bull,43:69-78
Huang J,Yu H,Dai A,Wei Y,Kang L.2017.Drylands face potential threat under 2°C global warming target.Nat Clim Change,7:417-422
Huang J,Yu H,Guan X,Wang G,Guo R.2015.Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change.Nat Clim Change,6:166-171
Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,Wu M C,Shih H H,Zheng Q,Yen N C,Tung C C,Liu H H.1998.The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis.Proc R Soc Lond Ser A-Math Phys Eng Sci,454:903-995
Kang S,Yang B,Qin C.2012.Recent tree-growth reduction in north central China as a combined result of a weakened monsoon and atmospheric oscillations.Clim Change,115:519-536
Li J,Cook E R,D’Arrigo R,Chen F,Gou X.2008.Moisture variability across China and Mongolia:1951-2005.Clim Dyn,32:1173-1186
Li J,Shi J,Zhang D D,Yang B,Fang K,Yue P H.2017.Moisture increase in response to high-altitude warming evidenced by tree-rings on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.Clim Dyn,48:649-660
Li Q,Liu Y,Nakatsuka T,Fang K,Song H,Liu R,Sun C,Li G,Wang K.2018.East Asian Summer Monsoon moisture sustains summer relative humidity in the southwestern Gobi Desert,China:Evidence fromδ18Oof tree rings.Clim Dyn,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4515-6
Liang E,Shao X,Liu X.2009.Annual precipitation variation inferred from tree rings since AD 1770 for the Western Qilian Mts.,Northern Tibetan Plateau.Tree-Ring Res,65:95-103
Liang E,Leuschner C,Dulamsuren C,Wagner B,Hauck M.2016a.Global warming-related tree growth decline and mortality on the north-eastern Tibetan plateau.Clim Change,134:163-176
Liang E,Wang Y,Piao S,Lu X,Camarero J J,Zhu H,Zhu L,Ellison A M,Ciais P,Pe?uelas J.2016b.Species interactions slow warming-induced upward shifts of treelines on the Tibetan Plateau.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,113:4380-4385
Liu Y,An Z,Ma H,Cai Q,Liu Z,Kutzbach J K,Shi J,Song H,Sun J,Yi L,Li Q,Yang Y,Wang L.2006.Precipitation variation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by the tree rings since 850 AD and its relevance to the Northern Hemisphere temperature.Sci China Ser D-Eartn Sci,49:408-420
Liu Y,Sun C,Li Q,Cai Q.2016.A picea crassifolia tree-ring width-based temperature reconstruction for the Mt.Dongda region,Northwest China,and its relationship to large-scale climate forcing.PLoS ONE,11:e0160963
Ljungqvist F C,Krusic P J,Brattstr?m G,Sundqvist H S.2012.Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries.Clim Past,8:227-249
Ljungqvist F C,Krusic P J,Sundqvist H S,Zorita E,Brattstr?m G,Frank D.2016.Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate variability over the past twelve centuries.Nature,532:94-98
Melvin T M,Briffa K R.2008.A“signal-free”approach to dendroclimatic standardisation.Dendrochronologia,26:71-86
Melvin T M,Briffa K R.2014.CRUST:Software for the implementation of regional chronology standardisation:Part 1.Signal-Free RCS.Dendrochronologia,32:7-20
Mosley-Thompson E,Thompson L G,Dai J,Davis M,Lin P N.1993.Climate of the last 500 years:High resolution ice core records.Quat Sci Rev,12:419-430
Pederson N,Hessl A E,Baatarbileg N,Anchukaitis K J,Di Cosmo N.2014.Pluvials,droughts,the Mongol Empire,and modern Mongolia.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,111:4275-4379
Qin C,Yang B,Melvin T M,Fan Z,Zhao Y,Briffa K R.2013.Radial growth of Qilian Juniper on the Northeast Tibetan Plateau and potential climate associations.PLoS ONE,8:e79362
Shao X,Liang E,Huang L,Wang L.2005.A 1437-year precipitation history from Qilian juniper in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.PAGES news,13:14-15
Shao X,Xu Y,Yin Z Y,Liang E,Zhu H,Wang S.2010.Climatic implications of a 3585-year tree-ring width chronology from the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.Quat Sci Rev,29:2111-2122
Sheppard P R,Tarasov P E,Graumlich L J,Heussner K U,Wagner M,wsterle H,Thompson L G.2004.Annual precipitation since 515 BCreconstructed from living and fossil juniper growth of northeastern Qinghai Province,China.Clim Dyn,23:869-881
Tian Q,Gou X,Zhang Y,Peng J,Wang J,Chen T.2007.Tree-Ring Based Drought Reconstruction(AD 1855-2001)for the Qilian Mountains,Northwestern China.Tree-Ring Res,63:27-36
van der Schrier G,Barichivich J,Briffa K R,Jones P D.2013.A scPDSI-based global data set of dry and wet spells for 1901-2009.J Geophys Res-Atmos,118:4025-4048
Wang J,Yang B,Ljungqvist F C,Luterbacher J,Osborn T J,Briffa K R,Zorita E.2017.Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1200 years.Nat Geosci,10:512-517
Wang J,Yang B,Qin C,Kang S,He M,Wang Z.2014.Tree-ring inferred annual mean temperature variations on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the last millennium and their relationships with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.Clim Dyn,43:627-640
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