基于BP神经网络及熵权灰靶法的分包商选择研究
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摘要
在建筑工程分包专业化发展的趋势下,项目分包商的选择变得尤为重要,分包商选择不当会给施工带来更大的风险.同时分包商招标时也存在着控制价难以确定、评价方法单一等问题.为此提出了基于BP神经网络和熵权灰靶法的两阶段分包商选择模型.首先提出了转换值概念,找到了承包价与分包价之间的转换关系,以S建筑公司的以往工程数据为基础运用BP神经网络预测分包招标控制价.然后建立综合指标评价体系,利用熵权法确定指标权重,再用灰靶决策确定最优分包商.最后以S建筑公司的实际的分包过程为例,验证了该选择模型的可行性.为分包商的选择提供了新思路.
With the development of subcontractor specialization, the choice of subcontractor becomes more and more important. The improper choice of subcontractor will bring more risks to construction. At the same time, subcontractors also have problems such as difficulty in determining control price and single evaluation method when bidding. Therefore, a two stage subcontractor selection model based on BP neural network and entropy weight grey target method is proposed. Firstly, the conversion value algorithm is proposed, and the conversion relationship between the contract price and the subcontract price is found. Based on the previous engineering data of S Construction Company, BP neural network is used to predict the subcontract tender control price. Then the comprehensive index evaluation system is established, the index weight is determined by entropy weight method, and the optimal subcontractor is determined by grey target decision. Finally, taking the actual subcontracting process of S Construction Company as an example, the feasibility of the selection model is verified. It provides new ideas for subcontractors' choice.
With the development of subcontractor specialization, the choice of subcontractor becomes more and more important. The improper choice of subcontractor will bring more risks to construction. At the same time, subcontractors also have problems such as difficulty in determining control price and single evaluation method when bidding. Therefore, a two stage subcontractor selection model based on BP neural network and entropy weight grey target method is proposed. Firstly, the conversion value algorithm is proposed, and the conversion relationship between the contract price and the subcontract price is found. Based on the previous engineering data of S Construction Company, BP neural network is used to predict the subcontract tender control price. Then the comprehensive index evaluation system is established, the index weight is determined by entropy weight method, and the optimal subcontractor is determined by grey target decision. Finally, taking the actual subcontracting process of S Construction Company as an example, the feasibility of the selection model is verified. It provides new ideas for subcontractors' choice.
引文
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[15] MICHAELA Schaffhauser-Linzatti.Construction management:subcontractor scopes of work[J].Construction Management and Economics,2012,30(9):46-55.
[16] SERDAR Ulubeyli,Aynur Kazaz.Fuzzy multi-criteria decision making model for subcontractor selection in international construction projects[J].Technological and Economic Development of Economy,2016,22(2):37-42.
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[18] HAMIDREZ A Abbasianjahromi,HOSSEIN Rajaie.A new decision making model for subcontractor selection and its order allocation[J].Project Management Journal,2014,45(1):21-26.
[19] 张浩.EPC合同模式下分包商的选择及评估“过程”管理[J].北京石油管理干部学院学报,2015,22(4):26-31.ZHANG Hao.Selection and evaluation of subcontractors under EPC contract model[J].Journal of Beijing Petroleum Management Cadre College,2015,22(4):26-31.
[20] 罗党.基于正负靶心的多目标灰靶决策模型[J].控制与决策,2013,28(2):241-246.LUO Dang.Multi-objective grey target decision-making model based on positive and negative target centers[J].Control and decision-making,2013,28 (2):241-246.
[2] 董雅文,刘文慧.建筑施工分包商选择模型及实证研究[J].建筑经济,2012(9):79- 83.DONG Yawen,LIU Wenhui.Selection model and empirical study of construction subcontractors[J].Construction Economy,2012 (9):79-83.
[3] FONG P S W,CHOI S K Y.Final contractor selection using analytical hierarchy process[J].Construction Management Economic,2000(18):547-557.
[4] 邵军义,宋岩磊,曹雪梅,等.基于TOPSIS改进模型的工程项目承包商选择[J].土木工程与管理学报,2016,33(4):12-17.SHAO Junyi,SONG Yanlei,CAO Xuemei,et al.Selection of project contractors based on TOPSIS improved model[J].Journal of Civil Engineering and Management,2016,33 (4):12-17.
[5] HAMIDREZ A.A new approach for subcontractor selection in the construction industry based on portfolio theory[J].Civil Engineering and Management,2016,22(3):12-19.
[6] 穆静静,王哲,曾又其.并行工程视角下产品绿色设计评估模式构建[J].科技进步与对策,2009,26(6):122-125.MU Jingjing,WANG Zhe,ZENG Youqi.Construction of green design evaluation model from the perspective of concurrent engineering[J].Scientific and Technological Progress and Countermeasures,2009,26 (6):122-125.
[7] 卢梅,韩小康,孔祥坤,等.基于BP神经网络和TOC的工程造价预控研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2011,43(1):106- 112.LU Mei,HAN Xiaokang,KONG Xiangkun,et al.Research on project cost pre-control based on BP neural network and TOC[J].J.of Xi′an Univ.of Arch.& Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2011,43 (1):106-112.
[8] 王吉权,王福林,董志贵,等.基于改进BP神经网络的电力负荷预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(9):276-284.WANG Jiquan,WANG Fulin,DONG Zhigui,et al.Power load forecasting based on improved BP neural network[J].Practice and Understanding of Mathematics,2017,47(9):276-284.
[9] 王德明,王莉,张广明.基于遗传BP神经网络的短期风速预测模型[J].浙江大学学报(工学版),2012,46(5):837- 841.WANG Deming,WANG Li,ZHANG Guangming.Short-term wind speed prediction model based on genetic BP neural network[J].Journal of Zhejiang University (Engineering Edition),2012,46 (5):837-841.
[10] 李帅,魏虹,倪细炉,等.基于层次分析法和熵权法的宁夏城市人居环境质量评价[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(9):2700-2708.LI Shuai,WEI Hong,NI Xilu,et al.Urban human settlement environmental quality assessment in ningxia based on analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2014,25 (9):2700-2708.
[11] 尹鹏,杨仁树,丁日佳,等.基于熵权法的房地产项目建筑质量评价[J].技术经济与管理研究,2013(3):3-7.YIN Peng,YANG Renshu,DING Rijia,et al.Evaluation of building quality of real estate project based on entropy weight method[J].Research on Technology,Economy and Management,2013 (3):3-7.
[12] 薄煜.基于建筑供应链的工程建设分包商选择评价研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2015.BO Yu.Research on selection and evaluation of construction subcontractors based on construction supply chain[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2015.
[13] 江新,朱沛文,杨轶雯,等.设计院总承包模式下施工分包商选择研究[J].工程管理学报,2014,28(5):37-41.JIANG Xin,ZHU Peiwen,YANG Yiwen,et al.Study on the selection of construction subcontractors under the general contracting mode of design institute[J].Journal of Engineering Management,2014,28 (5):37-41.
[14] CAO Wang.Contractor-subcontractor relationships with the implementation of emerging interorganizational technologies:roles of cross-project learning and pre-contractual opportunism[J].International Journal of Construction Education and Research,2014,10 (4):28-35.
[15] MICHAELA Schaffhauser-Linzatti.Construction management:subcontractor scopes of work[J].Construction Management and Economics,2012,30(9):46-55.
[16] SERDAR Ulubeyli,Aynur Kazaz.Fuzzy multi-criteria decision making model for subcontractor selection in international construction projects[J].Technological and Economic Development of Economy,2016,22(2):37-42.
[17] YU Feng.Study on the selection of subcontractors based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Advanced Materials Research,2012,2091 (594):32-38.
[18] HAMIDREZ A Abbasianjahromi,HOSSEIN Rajaie.A new decision making model for subcontractor selection and its order allocation[J].Project Management Journal,2014,45(1):21-26.
[19] 张浩.EPC合同模式下分包商的选择及评估“过程”管理[J].北京石油管理干部学院学报,2015,22(4):26-31.ZHANG Hao.Selection and evaluation of subcontractors under EPC contract model[J].Journal of Beijing Petroleum Management Cadre College,2015,22(4):26-31.
[20] 罗党.基于正负靶心的多目标灰靶决策模型[J].控制与决策,2013,28(2):241-246.LUO Dang.Multi-objective grey target decision-making model based on positive and negative target centers[J].Control and decision-making,2013,28 (2):241-246.