内蒙古草原干旱灾害综合风险评估
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摘要
区域气候变化对内蒙古草原影响凸显,干旱已经成为威胁内蒙古草原生态系统的首要自然灾害。基于自然灾害风险理论,利用内蒙古草原牧区54个牧业旗县的气象、土壤水分、植被、遥感、社会经济和地理信息数据,从旱灾致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力4个方面选取影响干旱的8个关键性指标,采用层次分析法、加权综合评价法和专家打分法,确定风险指标权重,构建旱灾风险评估模型,借助GIS空间分析功能,对内蒙古草原旱灾风险进行综合评估。研究结果表明:综合旱灾风险指数空间分布呈"南高北低、东高西低"特点,具有较明显的地带性分布规律。内蒙古草原高、中、低旱灾风险等级面积分别占研究区总面积的21.3%、37.4%、41.3%。高风险区主要分布在呼伦贝尔市中部偏西地区、兴安盟西南部、通辽市大部、赤峰市中部、锡林郭勒盟南部、乌兰察布市中部、呼和浩特市北部、包头市中部偏南和鄂尔多斯市南部;低风险区主要分布在呼伦贝尔市西部、通辽市东部、锡林郭勒盟西北部、乌兰察布市北部、鄂尔多斯市中部和东部及巴彦浩特市东部。构建的评估模型总体反映了内蒙古草原旱灾综合风险水平,可为内蒙古草原灾害风险管理、应对气候变化、抗旱减灾行动提供依据。
Since regional climate change has noticeably impacted on the Inner Mongolia grassland, drought has become the primary natural disaster threatening to Inner Mongolia grassland ecosystem. Based on the theory of Natural Disaster Risk, a risk assessment model about drought disaster has been developed. Using meteorological, soil moisture, vegetation, remote sensing, socioeconomic and GIS data in 54 animal husbandry counties, 8 key indicators fot risk assessment were selected from four sub-systems, including hazard of the disaster-causing factors,sensitivity of disaster-formative environments,vulnerability of disaster-bearing body and capabilities of prevention and mitigation from disaster. The weights of these risk assessment indicators were determined by analytic hierarchy process, weighted comprehensive evaluation and expert scoring method. The drought disaster risk level of grassland in Inner Mongolia was then evaluated by this model. The results show that the spatial distribution of the comprehensive drought disaster risk index presents the obvious zonal distribution with higher in the south compared with the north and higher in the east compared with the west. The area of low, medium, and high level of drought disaster risk accounts for 21.3%, 37.4% and 41.3% of Inner Mongolia grassland respectively. High risk areas are mainly distributed in southern of Ordos city, central southern of Baotou city, northern of Hohhot city, central Wulanchabu city, southern of XilinGol League, central of Chifeng city, most areas of Tongliao city, southwest of Xingan league and central western of Hulunbeier city. Low risk areas are mainly distributed in eastern of Bayannaoer City, central eastern of Ordos City, western Wulanchabu city, northwestward of XilinGol League, eastern of Tongliao city and western of Hulunbeier city. The model could reflect the situation of drought disaster risk over Inner Mongolia grassland and provide a reference for disaster risk management, responding to climate change, drought resistance and disaster mitigation action.
Since regional climate change has noticeably impacted on the Inner Mongolia grassland, drought has become the primary natural disaster threatening to Inner Mongolia grassland ecosystem. Based on the theory of Natural Disaster Risk, a risk assessment model about drought disaster has been developed. Using meteorological, soil moisture, vegetation, remote sensing, socioeconomic and GIS data in 54 animal husbandry counties, 8 key indicators fot risk assessment were selected from four sub-systems, including hazard of the disaster-causing factors,sensitivity of disaster-formative environments,vulnerability of disaster-bearing body and capabilities of prevention and mitigation from disaster. The weights of these risk assessment indicators were determined by analytic hierarchy process, weighted comprehensive evaluation and expert scoring method. The drought disaster risk level of grassland in Inner Mongolia was then evaluated by this model. The results show that the spatial distribution of the comprehensive drought disaster risk index presents the obvious zonal distribution with higher in the south compared with the north and higher in the east compared with the west. The area of low, medium, and high level of drought disaster risk accounts for 21.3%, 37.4% and 41.3% of Inner Mongolia grassland respectively. High risk areas are mainly distributed in southern of Ordos city, central southern of Baotou city, northern of Hohhot city, central Wulanchabu city, southern of XilinGol League, central of Chifeng city, most areas of Tongliao city, southwest of Xingan league and central western of Hulunbeier city. Low risk areas are mainly distributed in eastern of Bayannaoer City, central eastern of Ordos City, western Wulanchabu city, northwestward of XilinGol League, eastern of Tongliao city and western of Hulunbeier city. The model could reflect the situation of drought disaster risk over Inner Mongolia grassland and provide a reference for disaster risk management, responding to climate change, drought resistance and disaster mitigation action.
引文
[1]章国材. 自然灾害风险评估与区划原理和方法[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2014.
[2]闫娜,杜继稳,李登科,等.干旱遥感监测方法研究应用进展[J].灾害学,2008,3(4):117-121.
[3]政府间气候变化专门委员会. 气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性[M]. 剑桥: 剑桥大学出版社, 2013.
[4]史培军. 五论灾害系统研究的理论与实践[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2009, 18(5): 1-9.
[5]国家减灾委、民政部:针对内蒙古严重旱灾启动国家Ⅳ级救灾应急响应[J].中国减灾,2015(19):41.
[6]国家减灾委、民政部启动国家救灾应急响应帮助内蒙古自治区做好严重旱灾救灾工作[N]. 中国社会报,2017-07-17(001).
[7]史培军, 袁艺. 重特大自然灾害综合评估[J].地理科学进展,2014, 33(9):1145-1151.
[8]乌兰.内蒙古牧区旱灾致灾因子危险性区划[J].内蒙古气象,2017(3):25-28.
[9]李兴华,李云鹏,杨丽萍.内蒙古干旱监测评估方法综合应用研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(3):162-166.
[10]卓义. 基于遥感与GIS技术的内蒙古东部草原地区干旱灾害监测、评估研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院, 2011.
[11]郝璐,王静爱,张化.内蒙古草地畜牧业系统旱灾风险评价模型[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008, 16(2):414-424.
[12]史培军, 王季薇, 张钢锋, 等. 透视中国自然灾害区域分异规律与区划研究[J].地理研究,2017, 36(8):1401-1414.
[13]Zhang Lansheng, Shi Peijun, Wang Jing'ai, et al. Regionalization of natural disasters in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University: Natural Science, 1995, 31(3): 415-421.
[14]GB/T20481-2006, 气象干旱等级[S].
[15]来强,李青丰,莫日根敖其尔, 等.草地牧草含水量测定暨干鲜比估测方法研究[J].内蒙古草业,2008, 20(3):4-7.
[16]张存厚. 内蒙古草原地上净初级生产力对气候变化响应的模拟[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2013.
[17]何娇楠, 李运刚, 李雪, 等. 云南省干旱灾害风险评估[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2016, 25(5): 37-45.
[18]李芬, 于文金, 张建新, 等. 干旱灾害评估研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30(7): 891-898.
[19]潘进军. 内蒙古气象灾害及其防御[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2007.
[20]国家统计局内蒙古调查总队. 2014年内蒙古经济社会调查年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2014.
[21]尹姗, 孙诚, 李建平. 灾害风险的决定因素及其管理[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8(2): 84-89.
[22]姚玉璧, 张强, 李耀辉,等. 干旱灾害风险评估技术及其科学问题与展望[J]. 资源科学, 2013, 35(9): 1884-1897.
①文中内蒙古草原空间分布图中空白部分为非草原区,故而剔除
[2]闫娜,杜继稳,李登科,等.干旱遥感监测方法研究应用进展[J].灾害学,2008,3(4):117-121.
[3]政府间气候变化专门委员会. 气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性[M]. 剑桥: 剑桥大学出版社, 2013.
[4]史培军. 五论灾害系统研究的理论与实践[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2009, 18(5): 1-9.
[5]国家减灾委、民政部:针对内蒙古严重旱灾启动国家Ⅳ级救灾应急响应[J].中国减灾,2015(19):41.
[6]国家减灾委、民政部启动国家救灾应急响应帮助内蒙古自治区做好严重旱灾救灾工作[N]. 中国社会报,2017-07-17(001).
[7]史培军, 袁艺. 重特大自然灾害综合评估[J].地理科学进展,2014, 33(9):1145-1151.
[8]乌兰.内蒙古牧区旱灾致灾因子危险性区划[J].内蒙古气象,2017(3):25-28.
[9]李兴华,李云鹏,杨丽萍.内蒙古干旱监测评估方法综合应用研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(3):162-166.
[10]卓义. 基于遥感与GIS技术的内蒙古东部草原地区干旱灾害监测、评估研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院, 2011.
[11]郝璐,王静爱,张化.内蒙古草地畜牧业系统旱灾风险评价模型[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008, 16(2):414-424.
[12]史培军, 王季薇, 张钢锋, 等. 透视中国自然灾害区域分异规律与区划研究[J].地理研究,2017, 36(8):1401-1414.
[13]Zhang Lansheng, Shi Peijun, Wang Jing'ai, et al. Regionalization of natural disasters in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University: Natural Science, 1995, 31(3): 415-421.
[14]GB/T20481-2006, 气象干旱等级[S].
[15]来强,李青丰,莫日根敖其尔, 等.草地牧草含水量测定暨干鲜比估测方法研究[J].内蒙古草业,2008, 20(3):4-7.
[16]张存厚. 内蒙古草原地上净初级生产力对气候变化响应的模拟[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2013.
[17]何娇楠, 李运刚, 李雪, 等. 云南省干旱灾害风险评估[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2016, 25(5): 37-45.
[18]李芬, 于文金, 张建新, 等. 干旱灾害评估研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30(7): 891-898.
[19]潘进军. 内蒙古气象灾害及其防御[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2007.
[20]国家统计局内蒙古调查总队. 2014年内蒙古经济社会调查年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2014.
[21]尹姗, 孙诚, 李建平. 灾害风险的决定因素及其管理[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8(2): 84-89.
[22]姚玉璧, 张强, 李耀辉,等. 干旱灾害风险评估技术及其科学问题与展望[J]. 资源科学, 2013, 35(9): 1884-1897.
①文中内蒙古草原空间分布图中空白部分为非草原区,故而剔除