华南北热带11.5―2.5 ka B.P.温度集成重建与特征分析
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摘要
基于"综合-比例法"(Composite Plus Scale,CPS),利用近年来已发表的数据集成重建我国华南北热带地区11.5―2.5 ka B.P.温度变化序列。结果表明,该地区冷暖变化可以分为三大阶段:11 500―9 500 a B.P.为全新世早期阶段;9 500―4 000 a B.P.为全新世大暖期阶段;4 000―2 500 a B.P.开始出现降温过程。功率谱和小波分析表明:华南北热带气候变化具有多时段、多尺度冷暖周期变化特征,在千年尺度上,1.3 ka和3.3~3.9 ka是其冷暖变化的主要周期。序列中可以识别出一系列气候波动事件,如8.2 ka、7.9 ka、7.1 ka、4.1 ka气候事件。交叉小波谱分析表明:ENSO对华南北热带地区温度变化有着显著影响,特别是7 ka B.P.以来其影响进一步加强。通过与其他序列的对比发现:华南北热带地区的气候变化是对全球变化的响应,但也同样存在区域差异。
Based on Composite Plus Scale method, a temperature series with 100-year resolution in South China has been reconditioned by using 5 long term temperature proxy series selected from recent publications. The proxy records include pollens, lake-sediments, sea-sediments and so on. The result suggests that on a millennial scale temperature changes in the region could be divided into three stages. Stage one:11 500-9 500 a B.P. was early Holocene with relatively low temperature. Stage two: 9 500-4 000 a B.P. was mega thermal period during the Holocene. Stage three:4 000-2 500 a B.P. was the beginning of relatively low temperature period. The accumulated anomaly analysis results show that the temperature series could be divided into two cooling stages and one warming stage during the study period. 11 500-9 500 a B.P. and 4 000-2 500 a B.P. belong to the cooling phase; and 9 500-4 000 a B.P. belongs to the warming phase. The results of the MK mutation test show that the UF and UB statistics intersect at 11.3 ka B.P. and 2.7 ka B.P. passed the 95% confidence level to indicate that a mutation had occurred. Power spectrum analysis shows that the climate change has a period of 8.5 ka, 3.9 ka, 1.3-1.4 ka and 0.65 ka. Since the entire study period is 9 ka, the period of 8.5 ka does not make any sense. In addition, since the integrated reconstruction of this study has a resolution of 100 years, the 0.65 ka period may not be reliable. At the same time as the 2.5 ka period does not exceed 95% confidence level, the periods of 3.9 ka and 1.3-1.4 ka should be the main cycle. Wavelet analysis shows that the climate of North tropical of South China had multi-period, multi-scale warming and cooling cycle characteristics. On the millennium scale, 1.3 ka and 3.3-3.9 ka were the main periods of their variation of climate. A series of climatic events can be identified in the sequence, such as 8.2 ka, 7.9 ka, 7.1 ka and 4.1 ka climatic events. The cross wavelet analysis shows that the wavelet coefficients of exceeding 1 were in the period from 2.5 ka B.P. to 7 ka B.P., and the influence of ENSO on the temperature in the North tropical of South China had a significant impact,especially since 7 ka B.P.. The wavelet coherence analysis also shows that the correlation coefficient between the reconstruction sequence of this paper and the ENSO event sequence after 7 ka B.P. is above 0.6 at the scale of 1.6-2.5 ka. Comparisons with temperature sequences reconstructed by different methods in the Northern Hemisphere and other parts of China finds that the temperature changes in the North tropical of South China are in good agreement with those in other places, indicating that environmental changes in this region response to global changes. Nevertheless, there are also some differences, which show that to a certain degree climate change has regional differences in response.
Based on Composite Plus Scale method, a temperature series with 100-year resolution in South China has been reconditioned by using 5 long term temperature proxy series selected from recent publications. The proxy records include pollens, lake-sediments, sea-sediments and so on. The result suggests that on a millennial scale temperature changes in the region could be divided into three stages. Stage one:11 500-9 500 a B.P. was early Holocene with relatively low temperature. Stage two: 9 500-4 000 a B.P. was mega thermal period during the Holocene. Stage three:4 000-2 500 a B.P. was the beginning of relatively low temperature period. The accumulated anomaly analysis results show that the temperature series could be divided into two cooling stages and one warming stage during the study period. 11 500-9 500 a B.P. and 4 000-2 500 a B.P. belong to the cooling phase; and 9 500-4 000 a B.P. belongs to the warming phase. The results of the MK mutation test show that the UF and UB statistics intersect at 11.3 ka B.P. and 2.7 ka B.P. passed the 95% confidence level to indicate that a mutation had occurred. Power spectrum analysis shows that the climate change has a period of 8.5 ka, 3.9 ka, 1.3-1.4 ka and 0.65 ka. Since the entire study period is 9 ka, the period of 8.5 ka does not make any sense. In addition, since the integrated reconstruction of this study has a resolution of 100 years, the 0.65 ka period may not be reliable. At the same time as the 2.5 ka period does not exceed 95% confidence level, the periods of 3.9 ka and 1.3-1.4 ka should be the main cycle. Wavelet analysis shows that the climate of North tropical of South China had multi-period, multi-scale warming and cooling cycle characteristics. On the millennium scale, 1.3 ka and 3.3-3.9 ka were the main periods of their variation of climate. A series of climatic events can be identified in the sequence, such as 8.2 ka, 7.9 ka, 7.1 ka and 4.1 ka climatic events. The cross wavelet analysis shows that the wavelet coefficients of exceeding 1 were in the period from 2.5 ka B.P. to 7 ka B.P., and the influence of ENSO on the temperature in the North tropical of South China had a significant impact,especially since 7 ka B.P.. The wavelet coherence analysis also shows that the correlation coefficient between the reconstruction sequence of this paper and the ENSO event sequence after 7 ka B.P. is above 0.6 at the scale of 1.6-2.5 ka. Comparisons with temperature sequences reconstructed by different methods in the Northern Hemisphere and other parts of China finds that the temperature changes in the North tropical of South China are in good agreement with those in other places, indicating that environmental changes in this region response to global changes. Nevertheless, there are also some differences, which show that to a certain degree climate change has regional differences in response.
引文
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(1)http://getdata-graph-digitizer.com/。
(2)http://www.calpal-online.de/。
(3)数据下载自美国气候数据中心https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/ecuador/pallcacocha_red_intensity.txt。