基于复杂系统观的产业转型企业柔性战略决策研究
|
摘要
产业转型是社会经济发展过程中现实和不可回避的问题。在我国经济转型和产业结构调整日益深入的现实背景下,越来多的企业试图通过产业转型培育新的利润增长点,推动企业持续成长与发展。据证监会上市公司数据库、CCER等经济金融研究数据库统计,仅1996~2007年期间我国境内上市公司中已完成和正在进行产业转型的企业已超过64%。
然而,产业转型是一个充满风险和挑战的过程,产业的兴衰更替无数次地淘汰了未能成功转型的企业,甚至是行业的领导者。这主要是由于沉没成本效应、替代效应和创新的路径依赖,使得企业的战略演进表现出一定的刚性特征,从而降低了企业的环境应变能力,对此,一个行之有效的方法就是强化不确定环境下的企业战略柔性,构建起以柔性战略为基础的动态竞争优势体系。国内外转型企业的成功案例也表明,柔性战略对推动企业转型具有积极的促进作用。有关柔性战略的研究近年来日益受到关注,并取得了一系列重要研究成果,对研究产业转型中的转型企业柔性战略理论具有重要的指导和借鉴价值。但是,现有研究成果在研究对象、研究内容和研究方法方面仍还存在一定的不足之处。
为此,针对目前企业面临的实际问题和现有理论研究的不足,本论文将复杂性科学理论与企业资源理论、能力理论相结合,按照基于复杂系统观,对产业转型企业柔性战略决策方法进行深入研究,主要内容包括:企业产业转型绩效的影响因素与柔性战略的效用机理,企业柔性战略决策基础——战略环境特征,基于复杂性理论的企业柔性战略的内涵,柔性战略的系统设计与优化方法,柔性战略的演化机制与控制策略,以及推进企业柔性战略实施的保障措施。
在我国产业结构急剧变动的形势下,本论文将有关柔性战略的研究由一个结构化的产业背景拓展到变化的产业背景,这对于丰富动态环境下的战略管理理论体系,提高我国企业战略管理水平和持续竞争力具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。
Industry transition is a practical and unavoidable problem during the development of social economy. With the increasingly in-depth of economic restructure and industrial structure adjustment in China, in order to promote sustainable growth and development, more and more enterprises try to develop new profit increasing points through industry transition. According to the statistics from databases on economic and financial such as the SFC listed company database and CCER, only in the period from 1996 to 2007 there are over 64% enterprises which have completed or are carrying out industry transition.
However, the industry transition is a process which is filled with risk and challenge, and the rise and fall of the industry eliminate numerous enterprises even the leader of the industry that failed to transform. It is mainly because of sunk cost effect, substitution effect and path dependence of innovation, which make enterprises behave rigidly and reduce their ability to response the changeable environment. Thus, an effective way to solve the problem is to strengthen the strategic flexibility of enterprise, and build up a system of dynamic competitive advantage based on flexible strategy. The examples of successful enterprise transition at home and abroad also show that the flexible strategy has played a positive role in promoting the enterprise transition. In recent years, researches on flexible strategy have attracted increasing attention. Also there have been a series of important research results with some guidance and reference values for researches on flexible strategy of enterprises during industry transition. However, there are still some limitations on the research results about the objects, contents and methods.
Therefore, according to the practical problems which enterprises are faced with and the deficiency of the existing theoretical researches, this thesis will combine the complexity science with the resource-based view and competence-based view. Meanwhile, it will also conduct a thorough research to decision mechanism of flexible strategy of enterprise during the industrial transition. The main contents include: the influencing factors of industry transition performances and the effective mechanism of flexible strategy, foundation of flexible strategy decisions (the characteristics of strategic environment), meaning of strategic flexibility of enterprise based on complex theory, system design and optimization method of flexible strategy, evolutionary mechanism and control tactics of flexible strategy and countermeasures for transitional enterprises to carry out flexible strategy.
Under the backdrop of rapid industrial structure alteration in China, this thesis develops the research background of flexible strategy from structured industry to the changing industry, which has an important theoretical value and practical significance in enriching the theoretical system of strategic management under dynamic environment and improving the strategic management level and sustainable competitiveness of enterprises in China.
然而,产业转型是一个充满风险和挑战的过程,产业的兴衰更替无数次地淘汰了未能成功转型的企业,甚至是行业的领导者。这主要是由于沉没成本效应、替代效应和创新的路径依赖,使得企业的战略演进表现出一定的刚性特征,从而降低了企业的环境应变能力,对此,一个行之有效的方法就是强化不确定环境下的企业战略柔性,构建起以柔性战略为基础的动态竞争优势体系。国内外转型企业的成功案例也表明,柔性战略对推动企业转型具有积极的促进作用。有关柔性战略的研究近年来日益受到关注,并取得了一系列重要研究成果,对研究产业转型中的转型企业柔性战略理论具有重要的指导和借鉴价值。但是,现有研究成果在研究对象、研究内容和研究方法方面仍还存在一定的不足之处。
为此,针对目前企业面临的实际问题和现有理论研究的不足,本论文将复杂性科学理论与企业资源理论、能力理论相结合,按照基于复杂系统观,对产业转型企业柔性战略决策方法进行深入研究,主要内容包括:企业产业转型绩效的影响因素与柔性战略的效用机理,企业柔性战略决策基础——战略环境特征,基于复杂性理论的企业柔性战略的内涵,柔性战略的系统设计与优化方法,柔性战略的演化机制与控制策略,以及推进企业柔性战略实施的保障措施。
在我国产业结构急剧变动的形势下,本论文将有关柔性战略的研究由一个结构化的产业背景拓展到变化的产业背景,这对于丰富动态环境下的战略管理理论体系,提高我国企业战略管理水平和持续竞争力具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。
Industry transition is a practical and unavoidable problem during the development of social economy. With the increasingly in-depth of economic restructure and industrial structure adjustment in China, in order to promote sustainable growth and development, more and more enterprises try to develop new profit increasing points through industry transition. According to the statistics from databases on economic and financial such as the SFC listed company database and CCER, only in the period from 1996 to 2007 there are over 64% enterprises which have completed or are carrying out industry transition.
However, the industry transition is a process which is filled with risk and challenge, and the rise and fall of the industry eliminate numerous enterprises even the leader of the industry that failed to transform. It is mainly because of sunk cost effect, substitution effect and path dependence of innovation, which make enterprises behave rigidly and reduce their ability to response the changeable environment. Thus, an effective way to solve the problem is to strengthen the strategic flexibility of enterprise, and build up a system of dynamic competitive advantage based on flexible strategy. The examples of successful enterprise transition at home and abroad also show that the flexible strategy has played a positive role in promoting the enterprise transition. In recent years, researches on flexible strategy have attracted increasing attention. Also there have been a series of important research results with some guidance and reference values for researches on flexible strategy of enterprises during industry transition. However, there are still some limitations on the research results about the objects, contents and methods.
Therefore, according to the practical problems which enterprises are faced with and the deficiency of the existing theoretical researches, this thesis will combine the complexity science with the resource-based view and competence-based view. Meanwhile, it will also conduct a thorough research to decision mechanism of flexible strategy of enterprise during the industrial transition. The main contents include: the influencing factors of industry transition performances and the effective mechanism of flexible strategy, foundation of flexible strategy decisions (the characteristics of strategic environment), meaning of strategic flexibility of enterprise based on complex theory, system design and optimization method of flexible strategy, evolutionary mechanism and control tactics of flexible strategy and countermeasures for transitional enterprises to carry out flexible strategy.
Under the backdrop of rapid industrial structure alteration in China, this thesis develops the research background of flexible strategy from structured industry to the changing industry, which has an important theoretical value and practical significance in enriching the theoretical system of strategic management under dynamic environment and improving the strategic management level and sustainable competitiveness of enterprises in China.
引文
[1] Tushman L., O'Reilly A. The ambidextrous organization: Managing Evolutionary and Revolutionary Change[J]. California Management Review,1996, 38(4):8-30.
[2] Devetag G. & Warglien, M. Playing the wrong game: an experimental analysis of relational complexity and strategic misrepresentation[J]. Games Economic Behavior, 2007, 9:1-19.
[3] Prahalad C K., Hamel G. The core competence of the corporation[J]. Harvard Business Review, 1990, May-June: 79-91.
[4] Barney J B. Resource-based theories of competitive advantage: a ten-year retrospective on the resource-based view[J]. Journal of Management, 2001, 27(6):643-650.
[5] Bettis R A., Prahalad C K. The dominant logic: Retrospective and extension[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1995, 16:5-14.
[6] Collins J C. Built to Last: Successful habits of visionary companies[M]. New York: Harper Business, 1994.
[7] Colpan A M., Hikino T. Changing economic environments evolving diversification strategies, and differing financial performance[J]. Industrial and Corporate Change, 2005, 14(6): 897-940.
[8] Gemba K., Kodama F. Diversification dynamics of the Japanese industry[J]. Research Policy, 2001, 30 (8) :1165-1184.
[9] Pehrsson A. Business relatedness and performance: a study of managerial perceptions[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2006, 27(3):265-282.
[10] Peng M W. Institutional transitions and strategic choices[J]. Academy of Management Review, 2005, 28(2):275-286.
[11] Tan J., Tan D. Environment-strategy co-evolution and co-alignment: a staged model of Chinese SOEs under transition[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2005, 26:141-157.
[12]芮明杰,余光胜.产业致胜[M].杭州:浙江人民出版社,1999.
[13]陈传明.企业战略调整的路径依赖特征及其超越[J].管理世界,2002,6:94-101.
[14]于立,孟韬.资源枯竭型国有企业退出障碍与退出途径分析[J].中国工业经济,2003,10:5-12.
[15]王德鲁,张米尔.产业转型企业技术能力研究述评[J].管理科学学报,2006,13(6):74-80.
[16]李廉水.公司跨行业转型:特征分析与风险控制[J].管理世界,2004,1:118-129.
[17]张青.煤炭企业价值链延伸与升级的案例研究[J].管理世界,2007,4:168-169.
[18]李烨.上市公司业务转型有效性评价的DEA模型与实证分析[J].科研管理,2007,3:141-147.
[19] Hatch J. Strategic flexibility: The key to growth[J]. IVEY Business Journal, 2001, 4:44-47.
[20]詹姆斯·迈天.大转变[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2000.
[21] Stigler G. Production and distribution in the short run[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1939, 47:305-327.
[22] Marschak TR. Flexibility uncertainty and economic theory[J]. Metro Economica Press. 1962.
[23] Jones R A., Joseph MO. Flexibility and uncertainty[J]. Review of Economic Studies. 1986.
[24] Correa H L. Linking flexibility, uncertainty and variability in manufacturing systems: managing unplanned change in the automactive industry[M]. Avebury: Aldershot, 1994.
[25] Pagel M., Krause D R. Re-exploring the relationship between flexibility and the external environment[J]. Journal of Operations Management, 2004, 21(6):629-649.
[26] Tseng M C. Strategic choice of ?exible manufacturing technologies[J]. International Journal of Produce Economics, 2004, 91(3):223-227.
[27] Raynor M E. Strategic flexibility in R & D[J]. Research Technology Management, 2004, 47 (3):27-32.
[28] Chana T S. Flexibility performance: Taguchi’s method study of physical system and operating control parameters of FMS[J]. Robotics and Computer-Integrated Manufacturing, 2007, 23:25-37.
[29] Evan,M.,Dudick. Strategic Renaissance: New thinking and innovative tools to create great corporate strategies[M]. China Machine Press, 2003.
[30] Eppink K J. Planning for strategic flexibility[J]. Long Range planning, 1978, 1:9-1.
[31] Sanchez R. Dynamics of competence-based competition[M]. Oxford: Pergomon Press, 1996.
[32] Hamel G., Prahalad C K. Strategic Flexibility[C]. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2000:45-56.
[33] Zhang M. IS Support for strategic flexibility, environment dynamism, and firm performance[J], Journal of Managerial Issues, 2006, 1:84-103.
[34] Ranjan V. Strategic Flexibility and Firm Performance[D]. Washington: Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation, Washington University, 2007.
[35] Francas D. Strategic process flexibility under lifecycle demand[J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2007, 3:1-14.
[36]罗荣桂,吴兵.基于权变战略观的企业战略柔性研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2006,2:59-62.
[37]候玉莲,王迎军.战略柔性的内涵界定与分类[J].经济管理,2003,14:29-33.
[38]王永贵,邢金刚,李元.战略柔性与竞争绩效[J].管理科学学报,2004,7(6): 70-78.
[39]汪应洛,李垣,刘益.企业柔性战略——跨世纪战略管理研究与实践的前沿[J].管理科学学报,1998,1(1):22-25.
[40]弋亚群,刘益,李垣.战略变化的特征研究[J].管理工程学报,2007,2:1-4.
[41]李垣,陆浩然.战略管理研究现状与未来我国研究重要领域[J].管理工程学报,2007,1:1-5.
[42]王德鲁,宋学锋.企业战略系统的复杂性与战略管理设计模式研究[J].科技导报,2007,9:65-69.
[43]胡恩华,刘洪.管理科学研究范式的转换[J].系统科学学报,2007,15(1):74-78.
[44]张铁男,张亚娟,才华.基于复杂性科学的企业战略研究[J].管理科学,2006,5:17-23.
[45] Sanchez R. Strategic flexibility in product competition[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2005, 16(6):135-159.
[46] Fleming L. Technology as a complex adaptive system[J]. Research Policy, 2001, 30:1019-1039.
[47] Bakir A., Bakir V. Unpacking complexity, pinning down the“elusiveness”of strategy[J]. Qualitative Research in Organizations and Management, 2006, 1(3):152-172.
[48] Mosekilde E. Transcritical loss of synchronization in coupled chaotic systems[J]. Physics Letters, 2007, 275: 401-406.
[49]王毅,吴贵生.基于复杂理论的企业动态核心能力研究[J].管理科学学报,2007,10(1):18-28.
[50]张鹏程,张利斌,侯祖戎等.企业核心能力刚性进化机制研究:基于CAS视角[J].中国工业经济,2006,7:117-123.
[51]刘洪.组织复杂性:动因、控制与利用[J].经济管理,2007,29(1):32-35.
[52] Stacey R D. Complex Responsive Processes in Organization: Learning and Knowledge Creation[M]. London: Routledge, 2001.
[53] Stacey E R. Complexity and Creativity in Organization[M]. San Franciso: Publishers, Inc., 1996.
[54]约翰N.沃菲尔德.管理复杂性的系统设计理论与方法[M].中国矿业大学出版社,2006.
[55] Okhuysen G A. Integrating knowledge in groups: How formal interventions enable flexibility[J]. Organization Science, 2007, 13(4):370-386.
[56] Richards S., Meyer P. Extracting cellular automata rules directly from experimental data[J], Physica D, 2007, 45:189-202.
[57]郁明华.企业转型风险的缘起——基于企业能力理论的思考[J].现代管理科学,2003,(2):39-42.
[58]刘益,李垣,汪应洛.柔性战略的理论、分析方法及其应用[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[59]安强身,张守凤.合作竞争的企业柔性战略[J].统计与决策,2006,12:155-157.
[60]梁广华,李冠峰,程晓栋等.柔性战略对企业风险化解(转移)的模型[J].统计与决策,2006,15:121-122.
[61]冯明,付茂华.基于柔性战略的制造业管理胜任力模型[J].科技管理,2007,2:73-76.
[62] Hill L., Hansen S. A longitudinal study of the cause and consequences of changes in diversification in the U.S. pharmaceutical industry 1977-1986[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1991, 12:187-199.
[63] Amihud Y., Lev B. Does corporate ownership structure affect it’s strategy towards diversification?[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1999, 20:1063-1069.
[64] D Kahneman, A Tversky. Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk[J]. Econometrica, 1979, 47:262-291
[65] Sitkin B L. Reconceptualizing the determinants of risk behavior[J]. Academy of Management Review, 1992, 17:9-38
[66]陆国庆.上市公司产业转型的风险管理研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2003,5:33-38
[67] Khanna P. Is group affiliation profitable in emerging markets? An analysis of diversified Indian business groups [J]. Journal of Finance, 2000, 55:867-891
[68]王德鲁,周敏.产业转型企业技术能力演进机理与再造战略[J].中国管理科学,2005,6:143-148.
[69]李维安.中国上市公司治理指数与公司绩效的实证分析[J].管理世界,2006,3:104-113.
[70]姜付秀.上市公司多元化经营的决定因素研究[J].管理世界,2006,5:128-135.
[71]冯进路,冯绍彬.企业核心能力的产生及其克服[J].科研管理,2005,Vol.26(2):120-125.
[72] Hou J T., Cheng Z J.. The application and its analysis strategy of structural equation modeling[J]. Exploration of Psychology, 1999(19):54-59.
[73] Bagozzi R., Yi Y .On the evaluation of structural equation models[J]. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 1988, 16:74-94.
[74]约翰.盖特纳.战略供应链联盟[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2003.182-187.
[75] Pagell M. A multiple method study of environmental uncertainty and manufacturing flexibility[J]. Journal of Operation Management, 1999, 17(3):307-325.
[76] Correa H L. The flexibility of technology and human resources in automotive manufacturing[J]. Integrated Manufacturing Systems, 1994, 5(7):33-40.
[77]杨鹏鹏,谢恩.创造企业竞争优势[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,23(2):68-75.
[78]苗东升.系统科学精要[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998.
[79]杨永福,黄大庆,李必强.复杂性科学与管理理论[J].管理世界,2001,2:167-174.
[80]尼科里斯,普利高津.探索复杂性[M].成都:四川教育出版社,1986.
[81] H.哈肯.协同学[M].北京:原子能出版社,1984.
[82]沈小峰,吴彤,曾国屏.自组织的哲学——种新的自然观和科学观[M].北京:中共中央党校出版社,1993.
[83]曾健,张一方.社会协同学[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.
[84]成思危.复杂性科学探索论文集[C].北京:民主与建设出版社,1999.
[85]约翰H霍兰.隐秩序——适应性造就复杂性[M].上海:上海教育科学出版社,2000.
[86]周守仁,复杂性研究与混沌控制及其哲学阐析[M],成都:四川教育出版社,2001
[87]盖尔曼.夸克与美洲豹——简单性和复杂性的奇遇[M].长沙:湖南科学技术出版社,1998.
[88]刘洪.组织复杂性:动因、控制与利用[J].经济管理,2007,29(1):32-35
[89]王毅,吴贵生.基于复杂理论的企业动态核心能力研究[J].管理科学学报,2007,10(1):18-28
[90] Okhuysen, G.A.. Integrating knowledge in groups: How formal interventions enable flexibility[J]. Organization Science, 2007, 13(4):370-386.
[91]盛昭瀚等.企业R&D投入动态竞争系统的全局复杂性分析[J].管理科学学报,2006,9(3):1-10.
[92]范如国,黄本笑.企业制度系统的复杂性:混沌与分形[J].科研管理,2002,(4):22-29.
[93]林鸿溢.分形论[M].北京:北京理工大学出版社,1992.
[94]孙东川,李向荣.从系统论看我国法律建设的复杂性[J].软科学,2001,(3):2-5.
[95]王三义,俞向前,万威武.基于混沌理论的公司战略管理研究[J].商业研究,2005,13:42-44.
[96]施欣.战略及战略研究的若干基础理论问题研究[J].管理工程学报,1994(,4):270-273.
[97]黄旭,李一鸣.不确定环境下企业战略变革主导逻辑新范式[J].中国工业经济,2004,(11):60-67.
[98]吴定怡.经济全球化趋势下我国企业信息化建设初探[J]..现代财经,2007,27(10):40-43.
[99]周兆生.信息经济下的企业经营[J].亚太经济,1998(7):43-46.
[100]倪明.基于层次理论的方法研究及其在物流信息化复杂系统中应用[J].四川大学学报,2007,39:68-72.
[101]成思危.中国企业如何应对经济全球化[J].中外管理,2007,1:39-43.
[102]厉以宁.西方经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000.
[103]弋亚群,刘益,李垣.动态环境下的企业战略环境分析[[J] .西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2003,1:101-103.
[104]约翰.盖特纳.战略供应链联盟[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2003.
[105]袁斌,朴丽花.动态竞争中核心能力的提升路径[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2004,2:125-128.
[106] Daft R L., Sormunen L., Park D. Chief executive scanning, environmental characteristics, and company performance [J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1988, 9:123-139.
[107]石晓枫,许一婷,戴李宗.战略环境评价体系和方法[[J] .厦门大学学报(自然科学版),2003,42(6):821-824.
[108] Jovanovic B. Michael Cort's Contribution to Economics[J].Review of Economic Dynamics, 1998,1: 327-337.
[109]张米尔,高喆．城市衰退产业识别腜蚚J].经济理论与经济管理,2004,9:44-47.
[110]陆国庆.衰退产业论[M].南京:南京大学出版社. 2002:76-86.
[111] Douglas N. Applying the lifecycle model to melanesia[J].Annals of Tourism Research,1997, 24:1-22.
[112] Lave L., Hendrickson C., Horvath A. Economic input-output models for environment life-cycle assessment[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2002, 32(7):184-191.
[113] Rollet R. Image classification algorithm based on the RBF neural network and K-means[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2007, 19(4):2665-2684.
[114] Whitehead B. A. Cooperative competitive genetic evolution of radial basis function centers and widths fortime series prediction[J]. IEEE Trans on Neural Networks, 1996, 7(4): 869-880.
[115] Saha S., Murthy C. A., Pal S K. Rough set based ensemble classifier for web page classification[J]. Fundamental Information, 2007, 76 (1): 171-187.
[116] Li W., Chen S., Wang B. A variable precision rough set based modeling method for pulsed GTAW[J]. International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 2008, 36(11): 1072-1079.
[117]安利平,吴育华.一种基于粗糙集理论的规则获取算法[J].管理科学学报,2001,4(5):75-80.
[118] Han J W., Micheline K. Data Mining Concepts and Techniques[M]. New York: Academic Press, 2001.
[119] Chiu S L. Fuzzy model identification based on cluster estimation[J]. Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, 1994, 2(3): 267-278.
[120]朱恒鹏.前沿思索——中国经济非均衡分析[M].北京社会科学文献出版社,2000.
[121]范建平,梁嘉葬.企业生态系统及其复杂性探讨[[J].科技导报,2002,3:13-17.
[122]楼园,赵红.企业生态系统模型极其非生物环境因素分析[[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2002,(3):6I-64.
[123]张炎,张锐.战略理论演化及战略生态研究综述[J].科研管理,2004,(3):98-106.
[124]林凤,金瑞龄.企业对环境应变的和谐性分析[J].上海理工大学学报,1998,20(1):60-69.
[125]古继宝,俞敏.基于企业特定环境的竞争战略研究[J].科研管理,2006,27(3):61-67.
[126]兰天.企业对环境的感知不确定性与感知应变临界的确定[J].沈阳工业大学学报,2003,24(2):162-178.
[127] Mintzberg H., Walters J A. Tracking strategy in an entrepreneurial firm[J]. Academy of Management Journal, 1985, 6:257-272.
[128]王德鲁,宋学锋.企业柔性战略效用机理及其决策模型研究[J].管理工程学报,2009,2.
[129]方宏,唐开智.战略转折点与企业的生存发展[[J].辽宁商务职业学院学报(社会科学版),2004,2(64):14-15.
[130] Garvey B., Williamson B. Beyond knowledge management[M]. Economy and Management Press, 2005.
[131]周晓东.论战略稳定与战略变革的矛盾运动[[J] .科学学与科学技术管理,2004, (5):91-95.
[132]王晓东.动态环境下的企业战略更新研究[D] .复旦大学博士学位论文,2004,5:88-92.
[133] Feurer R., Chaharbaghi K. Analysis of strategy formulation and implementation at Hewlett-Packard [J]. Management Decision, 1995, 33(10):4-16.
[134] Feurer R., Chaharbaghi K. Strategy development[J]. Management Decision, 1995, 33(6):11-21
[135] Feurer R., Chaharbaghi K. Dynamic strategy formulation and alignment[J]. Journal of General Management, 1995, 20(3):76-90.
[136] Barney J B. Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage[J]. Journal of Management, 1991, 17:99-120.
[137] Priem R L. Is the resource based“view”a useful perspective for strategic management research? [J]. Academy of Management Review, 2001, 1:22-40.
[138]张米尔.市场化进程中的资源型城市产业转型[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2004.
[139] Teece D J., Pisano G. Adynamic capabilities and strategic management[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1997, 18(7):509-533.
[140]王德鲁,宁昕.企业产业转型阻力评价模型构建及其应用[J].商业研究,2007,9:93-95.
[141]王德鲁,宋学锋. A Study on Strategic Flexibility of Corporation Based on Complex Theory[C].International Conference on Management Science and Engineering,2008,8
[142]王益谊,席酉民,毕鹏程.组织环境的不确定性研究综述[J].管理工程学报,2005,19(1):46-50.
[143] Child J. Organizational structure, environment and performance: The role of strategic choice[J]. Sociology, 1972, 6:2-21.
[144]冯俊文.确定相对决策权重的链比较法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2004,Vol.26(3):341-344.
[145] Golden W., Powell P. Towards a definition of flexibility: In search of the holy grail?[J]. OMEGA, 2000, ( 28): 373~384.
[146] De Groote X. The flexibility of production processes: A general framework[J]. Management Science, 1994, 40(7): 933-945.
[147]张守凤.基于超竞争环境下的企业柔性战略研究:学位论文[D].武汉理工大学,2005.
[148]亓常松,孙吉贵,于海鸿.基于离散度的决策树构造方法[J].控制与决策,2008,23(1):51-55.
[149]盛昭瀚,柳炳祥.客户流失危机分析的决策树方法[J].管理科学学报,2005,8(2):20-25.
[150] Quinlan J R. C4.5: Programs for machine learning[M]. Morgan Kauffman, 1993.
[151] Janikow C Z. Fuzzy decision tree FID[A]. Annual Conference of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society, 2005: 379-384.
[152] Kim M. W., Ryu J. W. Optimized fuzzy decision tree using genetic algorithm[A]. Lecture Notes in Computer Science. 2006, 3: 797-806.
[153]张喆，?鹑唬菩≡恢只谝糯惴ǖ亩嘀鼐霾呤髯楹戏掷喾椒╗J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,4:63-69.
[154] Chan W K. A decision tree approach to sentence chunking[A]. Lecture Notes in Computer Science. 2007: 425- 434
[155] Yim J. Introducing a decision tree-based indoor positioning technique[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2008, 34(2) : 1296-1302.
[156] Han J W., Kamber M.数据挖掘概念与技术[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2001.
[157] YANG J., ZHANG D. Two-dimensional PCA[J]. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 2004, 26(1): 131-137.
[158] Murphyhttp P., Aha W. UCI repository of machine learning databases [EB/OL]. http://www. ics. uci. edu / ~ mlearn / databases. 2006.
[159] Kauffman S. At Home in the Universe: The Search for Laws of Self-organization and Complexity[M].NewYork: Oxford University Press,1995.
[160]刘豪皞.混沌边缘的公司战略——复杂思维范式初探[D].武汉大学,2002.
[161] Nonaka I. A dynamic theory of organizational knowledge creation. Organization Science, 1994, 5:14-37.
[162] Hit M A. Navigating in the new competitive landscape[J]. Academy of Management Executive, 1998, 12(4):22-42.
[163] Ebben J J, Johnson A C. Efficiency, flexibility, or both? Evidence linking strategy to performance in small firms[J]. Strategic Management Journal,2005,26:1249-1259.
[164] D’Aveni R. Hypercompetition: Managing the Dynamics of Strategic Maneuvering[M]. New York: Free Press,1994.
[165] Dierickx I, Cool K. Asset stock accumulation and sustainability of competitive advantage[J]. Management Science,1989,35:1504-1515.
[166] Houyt J, Sherman H. Strategic groups, exit barriers and strategy decision constraints in high techcompanies[J]. Journal of High Technology Management Research,2004,15:237-47.
[167] McGrath R G, MacMillan IC. Marketbusting: Strategies for exceptional business growth[J]. Harvard Business Review,2005,82(3):80-89.
[168] Kumar MVS. The value from acquiring and divesting a joint venture: A real options approach[J]. Strategic Management Journal,2005,26:321-331.
[169] Huchzermeier A, Loch CH. Project management under risk: Using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in R&D[J]. Management Science,2001,47:85-101.
[170] Sarkar S. On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control,2000,24:219-225.
[171]胡汉辉,潘安成,刘红军.基于非线性理论的企业市场价值取向战略研究[J].管理科学学报,2005,8(2):26-30.
[172]潘安成.基于组织适应力与战略选择协同演化的企业持续成长研究[D].南京:东南大学,2006.
[173] Huchzermeier A, Loch CH. Project management under risk: Using the real options approach to evaluateflexibility in R&D[J]. Management Science,2001,47:85-101.
[174] Govindarajan V, Trimble C. Building breakthrough businesses within established organizations[J]. Harvard Business Review,2005a,83(5):58-68.
[175] Khanna T, Palepu K G, Sinha J. Strategies that fit emerging markets[J]. Harvard Business Review,2005,83(6):63-76.
[176] Kauffman R J, Li X, Technology competition and optimal investment timing: A real options perspective[J]. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2005,52:15-29.
[177] Venkatraman N. Lee C. Preferential linkage and network evolution: A conceptual model and empirical test in the U.S. video game sector[J]. Academy of Management Journal,2004,47(6):876-892.
[178] Govindarajan V, Trimble C. Building breakthrough businesses within established organizations[J]. Harvard Business Review,2005a,83(5):58-68.
[179] de Castro O, Chrisman J J. Order of market entry, competitive strategy and financial performance[J]. Journal of Business Research,1995,33:165-177.
[180]姜礼尚.期权定价的数学模型和方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2003.
[181] Dixit A. investment Under Uncertainty[M]. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press,1994.
[182] Karatzas I, Shreve S E. Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus[M]. New York:Springer,1988.
[183] Moore M J, Boulding W, Goodstein R C. Pioneering and market share: Is entry time endogenous and does it matter[J]. Journal of Business,1991,28:97-104.
[184] Robinson W T, Fornell C, Sullivan M. Are market pioneers intrinsically stronger than later entrants?[J]. Strategic Management Journal,1992,13:609-633.
[185] More R A. Timing of market research in new industrial product situations[J]. Journal of Marketing,1984,48(Fall):84-94.
[186] Tushman L, O'Reilly A. The ambidextrous organization: Managing Evolutionary and Revolutionary Change[J]. California Management Review,2006,38(4):8-30.
[187] Timothy W., Ruefli J. M. Risk measures in strategic management research[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1999, 20:167.
[188]刘升福.基于战略转换的战略风险研究[J].软科学,2004,18(1):44-49.
[189]李汉东.企业战略风险的模糊评价模型[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(5):587-590.
[190]刘彦文,戴红军.基于粗糙集——神经网络的财务危机预警模型实证研究[J].科研管理,2007,28(6):138-142.
[191] Zhang W. J. Recognizing spatial distribution patterns of grassland insects: neural network approaches[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, 2008, 22(2): 207-216.
[192] Yu S. W., Zhu K. J. A dynamic all parameters adaptive BP neural networks model and its application on oil reservoir prediction[J]. Applied Mathematics & Computation, 2008, 195(1): 66-75.
[193] Wang X., Zhang M., Zhu J.. Spectral prediction of Phytophthora infestans infection on tomatoes using artificial neural network (ANN)[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2008, 29 (6):1693-1706.
[194] Li M. Q.. Improved SFS 3D measurement based on BP neural network[J]. Image and Vision Computing, 2007, 25(2): 614-622.
[195]王德鲁,宋学锋.公司特征、行业特征和产业转型类型的实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2008,1:64-69.
[196] Beasley M. S., Frigo M. L. Strategic risk management[J]. Strategic Finance, 2007, 88(11): 25-53.
[197]曹德芳,赵希男,王宇星.基于董事会治理因素的财务危机预警模型的构建[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版),2007,28(9):1350-1353.
[198] K. K. Seo, et al. Approximate Estimation of the Product Life Cycle Cost Using Artificial Neural Networks in Conceptual Design[J]. The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 2002, 19.
[199]周雄辉,彭颖红.现代模具设计制造理论与技术[M] .上海:上海交通大学出版社,2000.
[200] Karnopp D C. Margolis D L..System Dynamics:A Unified Approach[M]. Chichester: Wiley, 1990.
[201] Chang Tianqing, Li Jingyi, Xu Wensheng. Consistent Algorithm for Multi-value Constaint withContinuous Variables[J]. Tisinghua Science and Technology, 1999, 2:1392-1396.
[202] Sycara K P..Cooperative Negotiation Inconcurrent Engineering Design[A]. Computer- Aided Cooperative Product Development. Berlin: Springer Verlag Publications, 1990.
[203]蹇崇军,王润孝,秦现升等.并行工程中的冲突协商模型研究[J].机械科学与技术,2003,22(3):508-510.
[204]陈守煜.系统模糊决策理论与应用[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,1994.
[205]叶文华,戴勇.基于模糊判断的产品方案综合决策方法研究[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2002,34(4):134-138.
[206] Dess G., Davis P S. Generic strategies as determinants of strategic group membership and organizational performance[J]. Academy of Management Journal, 1984. 27(3)467-488
[207] Whitehill M. Strategy foresight[J]. Long Range Planning, 1996, 29(2): 249-254.
[208] Mintzberg H. The fall and rise of strategic planning[J]. Harvard Business Review, 1994, 72(1):107-114.
[209]刘洪.组织结构变革的复杂适应系统观[J].南开管理评论,2007,7(3):51-56.
[210]刘洪,姚立.管理复杂适应组织的策略[J].系统辨证学学报,2004,12(2):42-47.
[2] Devetag G. & Warglien, M. Playing the wrong game: an experimental analysis of relational complexity and strategic misrepresentation[J]. Games Economic Behavior, 2007, 9:1-19.
[3] Prahalad C K., Hamel G. The core competence of the corporation[J]. Harvard Business Review, 1990, May-June: 79-91.
[4] Barney J B. Resource-based theories of competitive advantage: a ten-year retrospective on the resource-based view[J]. Journal of Management, 2001, 27(6):643-650.
[5] Bettis R A., Prahalad C K. The dominant logic: Retrospective and extension[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1995, 16:5-14.
[6] Collins J C. Built to Last: Successful habits of visionary companies[M]. New York: Harper Business, 1994.
[7] Colpan A M., Hikino T. Changing economic environments evolving diversification strategies, and differing financial performance[J]. Industrial and Corporate Change, 2005, 14(6): 897-940.
[8] Gemba K., Kodama F. Diversification dynamics of the Japanese industry[J]. Research Policy, 2001, 30 (8) :1165-1184.
[9] Pehrsson A. Business relatedness and performance: a study of managerial perceptions[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2006, 27(3):265-282.
[10] Peng M W. Institutional transitions and strategic choices[J]. Academy of Management Review, 2005, 28(2):275-286.
[11] Tan J., Tan D. Environment-strategy co-evolution and co-alignment: a staged model of Chinese SOEs under transition[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2005, 26:141-157.
[12]芮明杰,余光胜.产业致胜[M].杭州:浙江人民出版社,1999.
[13]陈传明.企业战略调整的路径依赖特征及其超越[J].管理世界,2002,6:94-101.
[14]于立,孟韬.资源枯竭型国有企业退出障碍与退出途径分析[J].中国工业经济,2003,10:5-12.
[15]王德鲁,张米尔.产业转型企业技术能力研究述评[J].管理科学学报,2006,13(6):74-80.
[16]李廉水.公司跨行业转型:特征分析与风险控制[J].管理世界,2004,1:118-129.
[17]张青.煤炭企业价值链延伸与升级的案例研究[J].管理世界,2007,4:168-169.
[18]李烨.上市公司业务转型有效性评价的DEA模型与实证分析[J].科研管理,2007,3:141-147.
[19] Hatch J. Strategic flexibility: The key to growth[J]. IVEY Business Journal, 2001, 4:44-47.
[20]詹姆斯·迈天.大转变[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2000.
[21] Stigler G. Production and distribution in the short run[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1939, 47:305-327.
[22] Marschak TR. Flexibility uncertainty and economic theory[J]. Metro Economica Press. 1962.
[23] Jones R A., Joseph MO. Flexibility and uncertainty[J]. Review of Economic Studies. 1986.
[24] Correa H L. Linking flexibility, uncertainty and variability in manufacturing systems: managing unplanned change in the automactive industry[M]. Avebury: Aldershot, 1994.
[25] Pagel M., Krause D R. Re-exploring the relationship between flexibility and the external environment[J]. Journal of Operations Management, 2004, 21(6):629-649.
[26] Tseng M C. Strategic choice of ?exible manufacturing technologies[J]. International Journal of Produce Economics, 2004, 91(3):223-227.
[27] Raynor M E. Strategic flexibility in R & D[J]. Research Technology Management, 2004, 47 (3):27-32.
[28] Chana T S. Flexibility performance: Taguchi’s method study of physical system and operating control parameters of FMS[J]. Robotics and Computer-Integrated Manufacturing, 2007, 23:25-37.
[29] Evan,M.,Dudick. Strategic Renaissance: New thinking and innovative tools to create great corporate strategies[M]. China Machine Press, 2003.
[30] Eppink K J. Planning for strategic flexibility[J]. Long Range planning, 1978, 1:9-1.
[31] Sanchez R. Dynamics of competence-based competition[M]. Oxford: Pergomon Press, 1996.
[32] Hamel G., Prahalad C K. Strategic Flexibility[C]. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2000:45-56.
[33] Zhang M. IS Support for strategic flexibility, environment dynamism, and firm performance[J], Journal of Managerial Issues, 2006, 1:84-103.
[34] Ranjan V. Strategic Flexibility and Firm Performance[D]. Washington: Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation, Washington University, 2007.
[35] Francas D. Strategic process flexibility under lifecycle demand[J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2007, 3:1-14.
[36]罗荣桂,吴兵.基于权变战略观的企业战略柔性研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2006,2:59-62.
[37]候玉莲,王迎军.战略柔性的内涵界定与分类[J].经济管理,2003,14:29-33.
[38]王永贵,邢金刚,李元.战略柔性与竞争绩效[J].管理科学学报,2004,7(6): 70-78.
[39]汪应洛,李垣,刘益.企业柔性战略——跨世纪战略管理研究与实践的前沿[J].管理科学学报,1998,1(1):22-25.
[40]弋亚群,刘益,李垣.战略变化的特征研究[J].管理工程学报,2007,2:1-4.
[41]李垣,陆浩然.战略管理研究现状与未来我国研究重要领域[J].管理工程学报,2007,1:1-5.
[42]王德鲁,宋学锋.企业战略系统的复杂性与战略管理设计模式研究[J].科技导报,2007,9:65-69.
[43]胡恩华,刘洪.管理科学研究范式的转换[J].系统科学学报,2007,15(1):74-78.
[44]张铁男,张亚娟,才华.基于复杂性科学的企业战略研究[J].管理科学,2006,5:17-23.
[45] Sanchez R. Strategic flexibility in product competition[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2005, 16(6):135-159.
[46] Fleming L. Technology as a complex adaptive system[J]. Research Policy, 2001, 30:1019-1039.
[47] Bakir A., Bakir V. Unpacking complexity, pinning down the“elusiveness”of strategy[J]. Qualitative Research in Organizations and Management, 2006, 1(3):152-172.
[48] Mosekilde E. Transcritical loss of synchronization in coupled chaotic systems[J]. Physics Letters, 2007, 275: 401-406.
[49]王毅,吴贵生.基于复杂理论的企业动态核心能力研究[J].管理科学学报,2007,10(1):18-28.
[50]张鹏程,张利斌,侯祖戎等.企业核心能力刚性进化机制研究:基于CAS视角[J].中国工业经济,2006,7:117-123.
[51]刘洪.组织复杂性:动因、控制与利用[J].经济管理,2007,29(1):32-35.
[52] Stacey R D. Complex Responsive Processes in Organization: Learning and Knowledge Creation[M]. London: Routledge, 2001.
[53] Stacey E R. Complexity and Creativity in Organization[M]. San Franciso: Publishers, Inc., 1996.
[54]约翰N.沃菲尔德.管理复杂性的系统设计理论与方法[M].中国矿业大学出版社,2006.
[55] Okhuysen G A. Integrating knowledge in groups: How formal interventions enable flexibility[J]. Organization Science, 2007, 13(4):370-386.
[56] Richards S., Meyer P. Extracting cellular automata rules directly from experimental data[J], Physica D, 2007, 45:189-202.
[57]郁明华.企业转型风险的缘起——基于企业能力理论的思考[J].现代管理科学,2003,(2):39-42.
[58]刘益,李垣,汪应洛.柔性战略的理论、分析方法及其应用[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[59]安强身,张守凤.合作竞争的企业柔性战略[J].统计与决策,2006,12:155-157.
[60]梁广华,李冠峰,程晓栋等.柔性战略对企业风险化解(转移)的模型[J].统计与决策,2006,15:121-122.
[61]冯明,付茂华.基于柔性战略的制造业管理胜任力模型[J].科技管理,2007,2:73-76.
[62] Hill L., Hansen S. A longitudinal study of the cause and consequences of changes in diversification in the U.S. pharmaceutical industry 1977-1986[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1991, 12:187-199.
[63] Amihud Y., Lev B. Does corporate ownership structure affect it’s strategy towards diversification?[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1999, 20:1063-1069.
[64] D Kahneman, A Tversky. Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk[J]. Econometrica, 1979, 47:262-291
[65] Sitkin B L. Reconceptualizing the determinants of risk behavior[J]. Academy of Management Review, 1992, 17:9-38
[66]陆国庆.上市公司产业转型的风险管理研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2003,5:33-38
[67] Khanna P. Is group affiliation profitable in emerging markets? An analysis of diversified Indian business groups [J]. Journal of Finance, 2000, 55:867-891
[68]王德鲁,周敏.产业转型企业技术能力演进机理与再造战略[J].中国管理科学,2005,6:143-148.
[69]李维安.中国上市公司治理指数与公司绩效的实证分析[J].管理世界,2006,3:104-113.
[70]姜付秀.上市公司多元化经营的决定因素研究[J].管理世界,2006,5:128-135.
[71]冯进路,冯绍彬.企业核心能力的产生及其克服[J].科研管理,2005,Vol.26(2):120-125.
[72] Hou J T., Cheng Z J.. The application and its analysis strategy of structural equation modeling[J]. Exploration of Psychology, 1999(19):54-59.
[73] Bagozzi R., Yi Y .On the evaluation of structural equation models[J]. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 1988, 16:74-94.
[74]约翰.盖特纳.战略供应链联盟[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2003.182-187.
[75] Pagell M. A multiple method study of environmental uncertainty and manufacturing flexibility[J]. Journal of Operation Management, 1999, 17(3):307-325.
[76] Correa H L. The flexibility of technology and human resources in automotive manufacturing[J]. Integrated Manufacturing Systems, 1994, 5(7):33-40.
[77]杨鹏鹏,谢恩.创造企业竞争优势[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,23(2):68-75.
[78]苗东升.系统科学精要[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998.
[79]杨永福,黄大庆,李必强.复杂性科学与管理理论[J].管理世界,2001,2:167-174.
[80]尼科里斯,普利高津.探索复杂性[M].成都:四川教育出版社,1986.
[81] H.哈肯.协同学[M].北京:原子能出版社,1984.
[82]沈小峰,吴彤,曾国屏.自组织的哲学——种新的自然观和科学观[M].北京:中共中央党校出版社,1993.
[83]曾健,张一方.社会协同学[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.
[84]成思危.复杂性科学探索论文集[C].北京:民主与建设出版社,1999.
[85]约翰H霍兰.隐秩序——适应性造就复杂性[M].上海:上海教育科学出版社,2000.
[86]周守仁,复杂性研究与混沌控制及其哲学阐析[M],成都:四川教育出版社,2001
[87]盖尔曼.夸克与美洲豹——简单性和复杂性的奇遇[M].长沙:湖南科学技术出版社,1998.
[88]刘洪.组织复杂性:动因、控制与利用[J].经济管理,2007,29(1):32-35
[89]王毅,吴贵生.基于复杂理论的企业动态核心能力研究[J].管理科学学报,2007,10(1):18-28
[90] Okhuysen, G.A.. Integrating knowledge in groups: How formal interventions enable flexibility[J]. Organization Science, 2007, 13(4):370-386.
[91]盛昭瀚等.企业R&D投入动态竞争系统的全局复杂性分析[J].管理科学学报,2006,9(3):1-10.
[92]范如国,黄本笑.企业制度系统的复杂性:混沌与分形[J].科研管理,2002,(4):22-29.
[93]林鸿溢.分形论[M].北京:北京理工大学出版社,1992.
[94]孙东川,李向荣.从系统论看我国法律建设的复杂性[J].软科学,2001,(3):2-5.
[95]王三义,俞向前,万威武.基于混沌理论的公司战略管理研究[J].商业研究,2005,13:42-44.
[96]施欣.战略及战略研究的若干基础理论问题研究[J].管理工程学报,1994(,4):270-273.
[97]黄旭,李一鸣.不确定环境下企业战略变革主导逻辑新范式[J].中国工业经济,2004,(11):60-67.
[98]吴定怡.经济全球化趋势下我国企业信息化建设初探[J]..现代财经,2007,27(10):40-43.
[99]周兆生.信息经济下的企业经营[J].亚太经济,1998(7):43-46.
[100]倪明.基于层次理论的方法研究及其在物流信息化复杂系统中应用[J].四川大学学报,2007,39:68-72.
[101]成思危.中国企业如何应对经济全球化[J].中外管理,2007,1:39-43.
[102]厉以宁.西方经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000.
[103]弋亚群,刘益,李垣.动态环境下的企业战略环境分析[[J] .西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2003,1:101-103.
[104]约翰.盖特纳.战略供应链联盟[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2003.
[105]袁斌,朴丽花.动态竞争中核心能力的提升路径[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2004,2:125-128.
[106] Daft R L., Sormunen L., Park D. Chief executive scanning, environmental characteristics, and company performance [J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1988, 9:123-139.
[107]石晓枫,许一婷,戴李宗.战略环境评价体系和方法[[J] .厦门大学学报(自然科学版),2003,42(6):821-824.
[108] Jovanovic B. Michael Cort's Contribution to Economics[J].Review of Economic Dynamics, 1998,1: 327-337.
[109]张米尔,高喆．城市衰退产业识别腜蚚J].经济理论与经济管理,2004,9:44-47.
[110]陆国庆.衰退产业论[M].南京:南京大学出版社. 2002:76-86.
[111] Douglas N. Applying the lifecycle model to melanesia[J].Annals of Tourism Research,1997, 24:1-22.
[112] Lave L., Hendrickson C., Horvath A. Economic input-output models for environment life-cycle assessment[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2002, 32(7):184-191.
[113] Rollet R. Image classification algorithm based on the RBF neural network and K-means[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2007, 19(4):2665-2684.
[114] Whitehead B. A. Cooperative competitive genetic evolution of radial basis function centers and widths fortime series prediction[J]. IEEE Trans on Neural Networks, 1996, 7(4): 869-880.
[115] Saha S., Murthy C. A., Pal S K. Rough set based ensemble classifier for web page classification[J]. Fundamental Information, 2007, 76 (1): 171-187.
[116] Li W., Chen S., Wang B. A variable precision rough set based modeling method for pulsed GTAW[J]. International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 2008, 36(11): 1072-1079.
[117]安利平,吴育华.一种基于粗糙集理论的规则获取算法[J].管理科学学报,2001,4(5):75-80.
[118] Han J W., Micheline K. Data Mining Concepts and Techniques[M]. New York: Academic Press, 2001.
[119] Chiu S L. Fuzzy model identification based on cluster estimation[J]. Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, 1994, 2(3): 267-278.
[120]朱恒鹏.前沿思索——中国经济非均衡分析[M].北京社会科学文献出版社,2000.
[121]范建平,梁嘉葬.企业生态系统及其复杂性探讨[[J].科技导报,2002,3:13-17.
[122]楼园,赵红.企业生态系统模型极其非生物环境因素分析[[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2002,(3):6I-64.
[123]张炎,张锐.战略理论演化及战略生态研究综述[J].科研管理,2004,(3):98-106.
[124]林凤,金瑞龄.企业对环境应变的和谐性分析[J].上海理工大学学报,1998,20(1):60-69.
[125]古继宝,俞敏.基于企业特定环境的竞争战略研究[J].科研管理,2006,27(3):61-67.
[126]兰天.企业对环境的感知不确定性与感知应变临界的确定[J].沈阳工业大学学报,2003,24(2):162-178.
[127] Mintzberg H., Walters J A. Tracking strategy in an entrepreneurial firm[J]. Academy of Management Journal, 1985, 6:257-272.
[128]王德鲁,宋学锋.企业柔性战略效用机理及其决策模型研究[J].管理工程学报,2009,2.
[129]方宏,唐开智.战略转折点与企业的生存发展[[J].辽宁商务职业学院学报(社会科学版),2004,2(64):14-15.
[130] Garvey B., Williamson B. Beyond knowledge management[M]. Economy and Management Press, 2005.
[131]周晓东.论战略稳定与战略变革的矛盾运动[[J] .科学学与科学技术管理,2004, (5):91-95.
[132]王晓东.动态环境下的企业战略更新研究[D] .复旦大学博士学位论文,2004,5:88-92.
[133] Feurer R., Chaharbaghi K. Analysis of strategy formulation and implementation at Hewlett-Packard [J]. Management Decision, 1995, 33(10):4-16.
[134] Feurer R., Chaharbaghi K. Strategy development[J]. Management Decision, 1995, 33(6):11-21
[135] Feurer R., Chaharbaghi K. Dynamic strategy formulation and alignment[J]. Journal of General Management, 1995, 20(3):76-90.
[136] Barney J B. Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage[J]. Journal of Management, 1991, 17:99-120.
[137] Priem R L. Is the resource based“view”a useful perspective for strategic management research? [J]. Academy of Management Review, 2001, 1:22-40.
[138]张米尔.市场化进程中的资源型城市产业转型[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2004.
[139] Teece D J., Pisano G. Adynamic capabilities and strategic management[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1997, 18(7):509-533.
[140]王德鲁,宁昕.企业产业转型阻力评价模型构建及其应用[J].商业研究,2007,9:93-95.
[141]王德鲁,宋学锋. A Study on Strategic Flexibility of Corporation Based on Complex Theory[C].International Conference on Management Science and Engineering,2008,8
[142]王益谊,席酉民,毕鹏程.组织环境的不确定性研究综述[J].管理工程学报,2005,19(1):46-50.
[143] Child J. Organizational structure, environment and performance: The role of strategic choice[J]. Sociology, 1972, 6:2-21.
[144]冯俊文.确定相对决策权重的链比较法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2004,Vol.26(3):341-344.
[145] Golden W., Powell P. Towards a definition of flexibility: In search of the holy grail?[J]. OMEGA, 2000, ( 28): 373~384.
[146] De Groote X. The flexibility of production processes: A general framework[J]. Management Science, 1994, 40(7): 933-945.
[147]张守凤.基于超竞争环境下的企业柔性战略研究:学位论文[D].武汉理工大学,2005.
[148]亓常松,孙吉贵,于海鸿.基于离散度的决策树构造方法[J].控制与决策,2008,23(1):51-55.
[149]盛昭瀚,柳炳祥.客户流失危机分析的决策树方法[J].管理科学学报,2005,8(2):20-25.
[150] Quinlan J R. C4.5: Programs for machine learning[M]. Morgan Kauffman, 1993.
[151] Janikow C Z. Fuzzy decision tree FID[A]. Annual Conference of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society, 2005: 379-384.
[152] Kim M. W., Ryu J. W. Optimized fuzzy decision tree using genetic algorithm[A]. Lecture Notes in Computer Science. 2006, 3: 797-806.
[153]张喆，?鹑唬菩≡恢只谝糯惴ǖ亩嘀鼐霾呤髯楹戏掷喾椒╗J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,4:63-69.
[154] Chan W K. A decision tree approach to sentence chunking[A]. Lecture Notes in Computer Science. 2007: 425- 434
[155] Yim J. Introducing a decision tree-based indoor positioning technique[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2008, 34(2) : 1296-1302.
[156] Han J W., Kamber M.数据挖掘概念与技术[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2001.
[157] YANG J., ZHANG D. Two-dimensional PCA[J]. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 2004, 26(1): 131-137.
[158] Murphyhttp P., Aha W. UCI repository of machine learning databases [EB/OL]. http://www. ics. uci. edu / ~ mlearn / databases. 2006.
[159] Kauffman S. At Home in the Universe: The Search for Laws of Self-organization and Complexity[M].NewYork: Oxford University Press,1995.
[160]刘豪皞.混沌边缘的公司战略——复杂思维范式初探[D].武汉大学,2002.
[161] Nonaka I. A dynamic theory of organizational knowledge creation. Organization Science, 1994, 5:14-37.
[162] Hit M A. Navigating in the new competitive landscape[J]. Academy of Management Executive, 1998, 12(4):22-42.
[163] Ebben J J, Johnson A C. Efficiency, flexibility, or both? Evidence linking strategy to performance in small firms[J]. Strategic Management Journal,2005,26:1249-1259.
[164] D’Aveni R. Hypercompetition: Managing the Dynamics of Strategic Maneuvering[M]. New York: Free Press,1994.
[165] Dierickx I, Cool K. Asset stock accumulation and sustainability of competitive advantage[J]. Management Science,1989,35:1504-1515.
[166] Houyt J, Sherman H. Strategic groups, exit barriers and strategy decision constraints in high techcompanies[J]. Journal of High Technology Management Research,2004,15:237-47.
[167] McGrath R G, MacMillan IC. Marketbusting: Strategies for exceptional business growth[J]. Harvard Business Review,2005,82(3):80-89.
[168] Kumar MVS. The value from acquiring and divesting a joint venture: A real options approach[J]. Strategic Management Journal,2005,26:321-331.
[169] Huchzermeier A, Loch CH. Project management under risk: Using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in R&D[J]. Management Science,2001,47:85-101.
[170] Sarkar S. On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control,2000,24:219-225.
[171]胡汉辉,潘安成,刘红军.基于非线性理论的企业市场价值取向战略研究[J].管理科学学报,2005,8(2):26-30.
[172]潘安成.基于组织适应力与战略选择协同演化的企业持续成长研究[D].南京:东南大学,2006.
[173] Huchzermeier A, Loch CH. Project management under risk: Using the real options approach to evaluateflexibility in R&D[J]. Management Science,2001,47:85-101.
[174] Govindarajan V, Trimble C. Building breakthrough businesses within established organizations[J]. Harvard Business Review,2005a,83(5):58-68.
[175] Khanna T, Palepu K G, Sinha J. Strategies that fit emerging markets[J]. Harvard Business Review,2005,83(6):63-76.
[176] Kauffman R J, Li X, Technology competition and optimal investment timing: A real options perspective[J]. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2005,52:15-29.
[177] Venkatraman N. Lee C. Preferential linkage and network evolution: A conceptual model and empirical test in the U.S. video game sector[J]. Academy of Management Journal,2004,47(6):876-892.
[178] Govindarajan V, Trimble C. Building breakthrough businesses within established organizations[J]. Harvard Business Review,2005a,83(5):58-68.
[179] de Castro O, Chrisman J J. Order of market entry, competitive strategy and financial performance[J]. Journal of Business Research,1995,33:165-177.
[180]姜礼尚.期权定价的数学模型和方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2003.
[181] Dixit A. investment Under Uncertainty[M]. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press,1994.
[182] Karatzas I, Shreve S E. Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus[M]. New York:Springer,1988.
[183] Moore M J, Boulding W, Goodstein R C. Pioneering and market share: Is entry time endogenous and does it matter[J]. Journal of Business,1991,28:97-104.
[184] Robinson W T, Fornell C, Sullivan M. Are market pioneers intrinsically stronger than later entrants?[J]. Strategic Management Journal,1992,13:609-633.
[185] More R A. Timing of market research in new industrial product situations[J]. Journal of Marketing,1984,48(Fall):84-94.
[186] Tushman L, O'Reilly A. The ambidextrous organization: Managing Evolutionary and Revolutionary Change[J]. California Management Review,2006,38(4):8-30.
[187] Timothy W., Ruefli J. M. Risk measures in strategic management research[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1999, 20:167.
[188]刘升福.基于战略转换的战略风险研究[J].软科学,2004,18(1):44-49.
[189]李汉东.企业战略风险的模糊评价模型[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(5):587-590.
[190]刘彦文,戴红军.基于粗糙集——神经网络的财务危机预警模型实证研究[J].科研管理,2007,28(6):138-142.
[191] Zhang W. J. Recognizing spatial distribution patterns of grassland insects: neural network approaches[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, 2008, 22(2): 207-216.
[192] Yu S. W., Zhu K. J. A dynamic all parameters adaptive BP neural networks model and its application on oil reservoir prediction[J]. Applied Mathematics & Computation, 2008, 195(1): 66-75.
[193] Wang X., Zhang M., Zhu J.. Spectral prediction of Phytophthora infestans infection on tomatoes using artificial neural network (ANN)[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2008, 29 (6):1693-1706.
[194] Li M. Q.. Improved SFS 3D measurement based on BP neural network[J]. Image and Vision Computing, 2007, 25(2): 614-622.
[195]王德鲁,宋学锋.公司特征、行业特征和产业转型类型的实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2008,1:64-69.
[196] Beasley M. S., Frigo M. L. Strategic risk management[J]. Strategic Finance, 2007, 88(11): 25-53.
[197]曹德芳,赵希男,王宇星.基于董事会治理因素的财务危机预警模型的构建[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版),2007,28(9):1350-1353.
[198] K. K. Seo, et al. Approximate Estimation of the Product Life Cycle Cost Using Artificial Neural Networks in Conceptual Design[J]. The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 2002, 19.
[199]周雄辉,彭颖红.现代模具设计制造理论与技术[M] .上海:上海交通大学出版社,2000.
[200] Karnopp D C. Margolis D L..System Dynamics:A Unified Approach[M]. Chichester: Wiley, 1990.
[201] Chang Tianqing, Li Jingyi, Xu Wensheng. Consistent Algorithm for Multi-value Constaint withContinuous Variables[J]. Tisinghua Science and Technology, 1999, 2:1392-1396.
[202] Sycara K P..Cooperative Negotiation Inconcurrent Engineering Design[A]. Computer- Aided Cooperative Product Development. Berlin: Springer Verlag Publications, 1990.
[203]蹇崇军,王润孝,秦现升等.并行工程中的冲突协商模型研究[J].机械科学与技术,2003,22(3):508-510.
[204]陈守煜.系统模糊决策理论与应用[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,1994.
[205]叶文华,戴勇.基于模糊判断的产品方案综合决策方法研究[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2002,34(4):134-138.
[206] Dess G., Davis P S. Generic strategies as determinants of strategic group membership and organizational performance[J]. Academy of Management Journal, 1984. 27(3)467-488
[207] Whitehill M. Strategy foresight[J]. Long Range Planning, 1996, 29(2): 249-254.
[208] Mintzberg H. The fall and rise of strategic planning[J]. Harvard Business Review, 1994, 72(1):107-114.
[209]刘洪.组织结构变革的复杂适应系统观[J].南开管理评论,2007,7(3):51-56.
[210]刘洪,姚立.管理复杂适应组织的策略[J].系统辨证学学报,2004,12(2):42-47.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |