中国棉花市场准入政策对涉棉产业的影响研究
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摘要
自农产品贸易纳入WTO谈判议程以来,农产品的市场准入就成为谈判的重要内容之一。我国在2001年入世时,为了保护棉花产业,承诺对棉花的市场准入采用关税配额政策,但在实际执行的过程中,从2004年开始放松了对棉花进口的管理。由于涉棉产业既包括棉花产业,也包括纺织服装业,在开放经济环境下,涉棉产业链上的纺织服装业具有比较优势,而棉花产业缺乏国际竞争力,大量低价进口棉花的涌入促进了纺织服装业的生产,却打击了国内棉花产业的发展。2005年为了平衡棉农与纺织服装企业的利益,国家出台了滑准税政策。滑准税的实施得到了棉农的代表及部分学者的积极支持,认为有利于稳定棉农的收益及棉花的种植；而纺织企业认为滑准税增加了纺织企业的成本,强烈要求取消滑准税,甚至有学者提出关税配额政策是特定环境下的产物,应该彻底取消。同时,从国外来看,掌握着国际棉花定价权的美国,作为我国进口棉花主要供应国和纺织服装出口的主要市场,一方面限制我国纺织服装向其输入,另一方面却不断向我国施压,要求我国进一步放开棉花市场。大豆产业的前车之鉴已给我们沉痛的教训,如果我国的棉花贸易政策出现失误,那么下一个被冲击的就是棉花产业。在我国进一步深化改革,扩大农业对外开放的过程中,我国的涉棉产业如何才能既从全球化中受益,又能避免或缓冲外部冲击的影响,这就对完善我国的棉花对外贸易政策提出了挑战。本文在分析涉棉产业各部门比较优势的基础上从涉棉产业链的角度,利用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)模型全面评估了2004年棉花进口政策的放松,以及2005年出台的滑准税政策对国内棉花产业及纺织服装业造成的影响,并结合我国当前的农业国内支持政策,对中国棉花贸易政策进一步开放进行了探讨。主要内容及结论如下：
由于我国棉花生产以分散的农户经营为主,机械化程度低,生产投入成本高,很难与美国等产棉国家的棉花产业进行竞争。GTAP模拟结果表明,2005年我国的棉花产业受冲击主要是因为2004年中国过度放开了棉花市场,使棉农利益受损。中国如果在2004年严格按照入世承诺来开放中国的棉花市场,将会对棉花产业产生积极的促进作用,有利于棉农的就业以及利益的增加。而且按入世承诺对配额外进口棉花执行40%关税率,我国的棉花产业从数量上完全可以满足纺织品服装协议(ATC)取消后纺织服装业的发展需求。但严格按入世承诺执行也有局限性,可能会由于过高的配额外关税而导致“纱线替代”现象,不利于棉花产业和纺织服装业的发展。所以,这就需要政府从平衡棉农与纺织企业的利益出发,适度开放棉花市场。
其次,本文模拟分析了2005年以来滑准税实施对棉花产业及纺织、服装业的影响。结果表明,滑准税的实施确实有助于增加棉农的收益,促进棉花产业的发展。虽然这一政策增加了纺织、服装业的生产成本,影响了其产出及出口,考虑到滑准税对服装业的负面影响较微弱,对纺织业的影响较大,而纺织业属于产能过剩的产业,国家从2006年已经开始对这一产业进行整顿,滑准税的实施有利于促进纺织业的产业升级。而且从2005年美国和欧盟等国家对我国纺织品、服装出口重新设限来看,通过实施滑准税也有利于促进中美、中欧间贸易摩擦的解决。另一方面,滑准税的实施也不会影响我国的粮食安全战略,
由于关税配额制度是乌拉圭回合谈判中,为了解决农产品进口数量限制和非关税壁垒而采取的一种过渡措施,而取消配额,实行单一、透明的关税体制才是WTO农业谈判最终的目标。本文在当前滑准税实施的背景下,考虑我国及主要棉花供应国美国棉花补贴的条件下,运用GTAP模型从降低棉花进口配额外关税和扩大进口配额两个角度模拟分析了中国棉花贸易自由化对中国的棉花产业及纺织、服装业的影响。结果表明：在当前中美对棉花进行补贴的政策下,中国完全放弃关税配额政策,棉花进口将会大幅增加,由于目前中国的棉花产业已经处于较脆弱的边缘,大量的进口棉花将会冲击我国的棉花产业。如果中国在放弃关税配额的同时,加大对棉花的生产补贴将会缓解市场开放带来的负面影响,且当每亩补贴增加到90元左右时,才能完全抵消中国棉花市场开放对棉花产业的损失。从长远来看,中国在完全放开棉花市场时,各国都取消对棉花的补贴,国际棉花产业在一个公平的市场上进行竞争,中国棉花产业受到市场开放的冲击将大大减少,且纺织服装业也能从中受益。同时,模拟也表明,在中美现有补贴政策下,当扩大后的配额达到295万吨时,棉花关税配额政策对棉花进口不再具有约束作用。当然,如果美国等国家不再限制中国的纺织品、服装出口,那么中国就需要进口更多的棉花。
基于以上结论,本文认为我国目前还不具备通过高额补贴来代替关税配额政策对棉花产业进行保护的条件,建议我国应该谨慎开放棉花市场。我国当前应该进一步完善滑准税管理政策,调整滑准税的计算公式,在公式中增加棉花的等级系数,从棉花价格和等级两方面来确定滑准税率；建立门槛价格随国际棉价波动自动调整的机制;确定滑准税配额的发放基数。同时,提出我国要利用WTO允许的微量许可补贴标准,通过适当加大对棉花的投入性补贴和对棉农的收入保障补贴来提高棉花产业的国际竞争力,为以后棉花市场的进一步开放做准备。另一方面,在未来的棉花贸易谈判中,.把棉花进口与纺织服装出口谈判相结合,中国棉花市场开放要以美国等国家全面开放纺织品、服装市场为前提。
Since WTO negotiation included agricultural products trade. Market access for agricultural products has become an important part of the negotiations. In order to protect the cotton industry. China promised tariff rate quotas (TRQ) policy on the market access of cotton after joining WTO. But in the implementation of TRQ, China relaxed the management of cotton imports from2004. Because the Cotton-related industries include the cotton industry and the textile&garment industry, in the open economic environment, the textile and garment industry has a comparative advantage, while the cotton industry is lack of international competitiveness. Therefore, the influx of large number of low-priced foreign cotton promoted the production of textile and garment industry, but limited the development of the domestic cotton industry. In2005, In order to balance the interests of cotton farmers and textile&garment enterprises, the government issued a sliding tax policy. The implementation of sliding tax got active support of cotton grower representatives and some scholars. They thought it is beneficial to the stability of cotton grower income and guarantee of cotton cultivation. The textile industry representatives thought the sliding tax increases the textile enterprise cost, thus strongly requested to cancel it. Even some scholars put forward cotton tariff rate quotas policy was the product of a certain environment and should be thoroughly cancelled. At the same time, The United States, controlling the international cotton pricing, as China's imported cotton main suppliers and textile clothing exports main market, on the one hand, restricts China's textile and apparel to its market, on the other hand, continues to put pressure on China to further liberalization of the cotton market. The case of soybean industry gave us expensive lessons. If China's cotton trade policy repeated mistakes, the next shocks would be the cotton industry. In further deepening reforms and expanding agricultural opening in China, how to help cotton-related industries benefit from globalization, but also avoiding or buffering the impact of external shocks would pose a challenge to improve the foreign trade policy of China's cotton.
Based on the analysis of the comparative advantage of the cotton industry and the textile&garment industry, This paper comprehensively evaluated the effects on domestic cotton industry and the textile&garment industry of cotton import policy relaxation in2004and the implementation of the slipping tax policy since2005from the perspective of industrial chain by using the model of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). Finally, this paper made a simulation analysis of the influence of Chinese cotton trade policy to further open combined with current agricultural domestic support policies in China. The main contents and results are as follows:
China's cotton is planted mainly by small-scale farmers, the level of mechanization is low and the cost of production inputs is high, which makes it difficult to compete with the United States and other cotton-producing countries. GTAP simulation results show that China's cotton industry was shocked in2005largely due to the excessive openness the cotton market in2004. That brought great damage on cotton farmers' interests, if China opened its cotton market strictly according to the WTO commitments in2004, it would actively promote the development of the cotton industry; This would be conducive to increasing employment and income of farmers. And according to WTO commitments? China's cotton industry from the quantity can completely satisfy the demand of the textile and garment industry's development after the abolition of the agreement on textiles and clothing (ATC). But strict implementations of WTO commitments have limitations, that is the higher over-quota tariff may lead to the phenomenon of "yarn substitute cotton", which is not conducive to the development of the cotton industry and the textile&garment industry. In order to balance the interests of farmers and textile enterprises, it requires the government to open cotton market moderately.
Secondly, this paper assesses the effect of Cotton slipping tax on cotton industry and textile&garment industry since2005. The results show that the implementation of the slipping tax really helps to increase the income of cotton farmers, and promote the development of the cotton industry, although this policy reduces the output and export of textile and garment industry by increasing the cost of production. Because the sliding tax on clothing industry's negative effect is weak, but the influence on textile industry is large, and the textile industry belongs to the excess capacity industry, the state has started to rectify the industry from2006; The slipping tax is beneficial to promote the textile industry upgrading. Considering the event that the United States and the European Union and other countries re-imposing restrictions on China's textile garment exports in2005, the implementation of the sliding tax is also conducive to promoting the settlement of the trade frictions between China and the United States and Central Europe, furthermore, sliding tax will not impact China's food security strategy.
In order to solve the quantitative restrictions of imports of agricultural products and non-tariff barriers, the tariff rate quotas system are adopted as a transitional measure in the Uruguay Round negotiations, the final goal of the WTO agricultural negotiations is to abolish the quotas policy and take a single, transparent tariff system. This paper applies the GTAP model to simulate the cotton trade liberalization on China's cotton industry and textile&garment industry by reducing the over-quota tariff of cotton and expanding the import quotas in the context of the implementation of sliding tax, considering the conditions of China and the United States cotton subsidies. The results show that the cotton imports would substantially increase if China completely abandons the tariff quota policy, because China's cotton industry has been in the more vulnerable edges, A large number of imports of cotton will impact China's cotton industry. If China abandons the tariff rate quotas policy, at the same time, to increase cotton production subsidies, it would alleviate the negative impact of market opening. When the subsidies increased to90Yuan per mu, which will fully offset the loss of China's cotton market open on the cotton industry. In the long run, all countries have abolished the cotton subsidies, the international cotton industry would compete on a fair market, China's cotton industry would suffer a smaller negative impact of market opening, and China's textile&garment industry would also benefit from this. At the same time, simulation also shows that, in the current cotton subsidy policy, when the enlarged quota reached2.95millions tons, the policy of import tariff rate quotas has no longer restriction on cotton imports. Of course, if the United States and other countries would not restrict China's textile and apparel exports anymore, China would import more cotton.
Based on the above conclusions, This paper argues that China still does not have such conditions through high subsidies to replace tariff rate quotas policy on cotton industry protection, and suggests that China should carefully open the cotton market and should further improve the sliding tax distribution policy, adjust the sliding tax formula, Add cotton grade coefficient in the formula to determine the sliding rate from cotton prices and grade; Establish Automatic mechanism for adjusting the threshold price with the international cotton price fluctuations; Determine the base quota of sliding tax. Meanwhile, this paper puts forward that china should appropriately increase the inputs subsidies and income subsidies for cotton farmers to increase the international competitiveness of the cotton industry to prepare for the further opening of cotton market according to the Trace license subsidies of WTO. Another possible approach is to combine cotton import and textile export in future cotton trade negotiations, to emphases that China cotton market' further opening should be linked to textile clothing market's opening in US and other countnes.
由于我国棉花生产以分散的农户经营为主,机械化程度低,生产投入成本高,很难与美国等产棉国家的棉花产业进行竞争。GTAP模拟结果表明,2005年我国的棉花产业受冲击主要是因为2004年中国过度放开了棉花市场,使棉农利益受损。中国如果在2004年严格按照入世承诺来开放中国的棉花市场,将会对棉花产业产生积极的促进作用,有利于棉农的就业以及利益的增加。而且按入世承诺对配额外进口棉花执行40%关税率,我国的棉花产业从数量上完全可以满足纺织品服装协议(ATC)取消后纺织服装业的发展需求。但严格按入世承诺执行也有局限性,可能会由于过高的配额外关税而导致“纱线替代”现象,不利于棉花产业和纺织服装业的发展。所以,这就需要政府从平衡棉农与纺织企业的利益出发,适度开放棉花市场。
其次,本文模拟分析了2005年以来滑准税实施对棉花产业及纺织、服装业的影响。结果表明,滑准税的实施确实有助于增加棉农的收益,促进棉花产业的发展。虽然这一政策增加了纺织、服装业的生产成本,影响了其产出及出口,考虑到滑准税对服装业的负面影响较微弱,对纺织业的影响较大,而纺织业属于产能过剩的产业,国家从2006年已经开始对这一产业进行整顿,滑准税的实施有利于促进纺织业的产业升级。而且从2005年美国和欧盟等国家对我国纺织品、服装出口重新设限来看,通过实施滑准税也有利于促进中美、中欧间贸易摩擦的解决。另一方面,滑准税的实施也不会影响我国的粮食安全战略,
由于关税配额制度是乌拉圭回合谈判中,为了解决农产品进口数量限制和非关税壁垒而采取的一种过渡措施,而取消配额,实行单一、透明的关税体制才是WTO农业谈判最终的目标。本文在当前滑准税实施的背景下,考虑我国及主要棉花供应国美国棉花补贴的条件下,运用GTAP模型从降低棉花进口配额外关税和扩大进口配额两个角度模拟分析了中国棉花贸易自由化对中国的棉花产业及纺织、服装业的影响。结果表明：在当前中美对棉花进行补贴的政策下,中国完全放弃关税配额政策,棉花进口将会大幅增加,由于目前中国的棉花产业已经处于较脆弱的边缘,大量的进口棉花将会冲击我国的棉花产业。如果中国在放弃关税配额的同时,加大对棉花的生产补贴将会缓解市场开放带来的负面影响,且当每亩补贴增加到90元左右时,才能完全抵消中国棉花市场开放对棉花产业的损失。从长远来看,中国在完全放开棉花市场时,各国都取消对棉花的补贴,国际棉花产业在一个公平的市场上进行竞争,中国棉花产业受到市场开放的冲击将大大减少,且纺织服装业也能从中受益。同时,模拟也表明,在中美现有补贴政策下,当扩大后的配额达到295万吨时,棉花关税配额政策对棉花进口不再具有约束作用。当然,如果美国等国家不再限制中国的纺织品、服装出口,那么中国就需要进口更多的棉花。
基于以上结论,本文认为我国目前还不具备通过高额补贴来代替关税配额政策对棉花产业进行保护的条件,建议我国应该谨慎开放棉花市场。我国当前应该进一步完善滑准税管理政策,调整滑准税的计算公式,在公式中增加棉花的等级系数,从棉花价格和等级两方面来确定滑准税率；建立门槛价格随国际棉价波动自动调整的机制;确定滑准税配额的发放基数。同时,提出我国要利用WTO允许的微量许可补贴标准,通过适当加大对棉花的投入性补贴和对棉农的收入保障补贴来提高棉花产业的国际竞争力,为以后棉花市场的进一步开放做准备。另一方面,在未来的棉花贸易谈判中,.把棉花进口与纺织服装出口谈判相结合,中国棉花市场开放要以美国等国家全面开放纺织品、服装市场为前提。
Since WTO negotiation included agricultural products trade. Market access for agricultural products has become an important part of the negotiations. In order to protect the cotton industry. China promised tariff rate quotas (TRQ) policy on the market access of cotton after joining WTO. But in the implementation of TRQ, China relaxed the management of cotton imports from2004. Because the Cotton-related industries include the cotton industry and the textile&garment industry, in the open economic environment, the textile and garment industry has a comparative advantage, while the cotton industry is lack of international competitiveness. Therefore, the influx of large number of low-priced foreign cotton promoted the production of textile and garment industry, but limited the development of the domestic cotton industry. In2005, In order to balance the interests of cotton farmers and textile&garment enterprises, the government issued a sliding tax policy. The implementation of sliding tax got active support of cotton grower representatives and some scholars. They thought it is beneficial to the stability of cotton grower income and guarantee of cotton cultivation. The textile industry representatives thought the sliding tax increases the textile enterprise cost, thus strongly requested to cancel it. Even some scholars put forward cotton tariff rate quotas policy was the product of a certain environment and should be thoroughly cancelled. At the same time, The United States, controlling the international cotton pricing, as China's imported cotton main suppliers and textile clothing exports main market, on the one hand, restricts China's textile and apparel to its market, on the other hand, continues to put pressure on China to further liberalization of the cotton market. The case of soybean industry gave us expensive lessons. If China's cotton trade policy repeated mistakes, the next shocks would be the cotton industry. In further deepening reforms and expanding agricultural opening in China, how to help cotton-related industries benefit from globalization, but also avoiding or buffering the impact of external shocks would pose a challenge to improve the foreign trade policy of China's cotton.
Based on the analysis of the comparative advantage of the cotton industry and the textile&garment industry, This paper comprehensively evaluated the effects on domestic cotton industry and the textile&garment industry of cotton import policy relaxation in2004and the implementation of the slipping tax policy since2005from the perspective of industrial chain by using the model of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). Finally, this paper made a simulation analysis of the influence of Chinese cotton trade policy to further open combined with current agricultural domestic support policies in China. The main contents and results are as follows:
China's cotton is planted mainly by small-scale farmers, the level of mechanization is low and the cost of production inputs is high, which makes it difficult to compete with the United States and other cotton-producing countries. GTAP simulation results show that China's cotton industry was shocked in2005largely due to the excessive openness the cotton market in2004. That brought great damage on cotton farmers' interests, if China opened its cotton market strictly according to the WTO commitments in2004, it would actively promote the development of the cotton industry; This would be conducive to increasing employment and income of farmers. And according to WTO commitments? China's cotton industry from the quantity can completely satisfy the demand of the textile and garment industry's development after the abolition of the agreement on textiles and clothing (ATC). But strict implementations of WTO commitments have limitations, that is the higher over-quota tariff may lead to the phenomenon of "yarn substitute cotton", which is not conducive to the development of the cotton industry and the textile&garment industry. In order to balance the interests of farmers and textile enterprises, it requires the government to open cotton market moderately.
Secondly, this paper assesses the effect of Cotton slipping tax on cotton industry and textile&garment industry since2005. The results show that the implementation of the slipping tax really helps to increase the income of cotton farmers, and promote the development of the cotton industry, although this policy reduces the output and export of textile and garment industry by increasing the cost of production. Because the sliding tax on clothing industry's negative effect is weak, but the influence on textile industry is large, and the textile industry belongs to the excess capacity industry, the state has started to rectify the industry from2006; The slipping tax is beneficial to promote the textile industry upgrading. Considering the event that the United States and the European Union and other countries re-imposing restrictions on China's textile garment exports in2005, the implementation of the sliding tax is also conducive to promoting the settlement of the trade frictions between China and the United States and Central Europe, furthermore, sliding tax will not impact China's food security strategy.
In order to solve the quantitative restrictions of imports of agricultural products and non-tariff barriers, the tariff rate quotas system are adopted as a transitional measure in the Uruguay Round negotiations, the final goal of the WTO agricultural negotiations is to abolish the quotas policy and take a single, transparent tariff system. This paper applies the GTAP model to simulate the cotton trade liberalization on China's cotton industry and textile&garment industry by reducing the over-quota tariff of cotton and expanding the import quotas in the context of the implementation of sliding tax, considering the conditions of China and the United States cotton subsidies. The results show that the cotton imports would substantially increase if China completely abandons the tariff quota policy, because China's cotton industry has been in the more vulnerable edges, A large number of imports of cotton will impact China's cotton industry. If China abandons the tariff rate quotas policy, at the same time, to increase cotton production subsidies, it would alleviate the negative impact of market opening. When the subsidies increased to90Yuan per mu, which will fully offset the loss of China's cotton market open on the cotton industry. In the long run, all countries have abolished the cotton subsidies, the international cotton industry would compete on a fair market, China's cotton industry would suffer a smaller negative impact of market opening, and China's textile&garment industry would also benefit from this. At the same time, simulation also shows that, in the current cotton subsidy policy, when the enlarged quota reached2.95millions tons, the policy of import tariff rate quotas has no longer restriction on cotton imports. Of course, if the United States and other countries would not restrict China's textile and apparel exports anymore, China would import more cotton.
Based on the above conclusions, This paper argues that China still does not have such conditions through high subsidies to replace tariff rate quotas policy on cotton industry protection, and suggests that China should carefully open the cotton market and should further improve the sliding tax distribution policy, adjust the sliding tax formula, Add cotton grade coefficient in the formula to determine the sliding rate from cotton prices and grade; Establish Automatic mechanism for adjusting the threshold price with the international cotton price fluctuations; Determine the base quota of sliding tax. Meanwhile, this paper puts forward that china should appropriately increase the inputs subsidies and income subsidies for cotton farmers to increase the international competitiveness of the cotton industry to prepare for the further opening of cotton market according to the Trace license subsidies of WTO. Another possible approach is to combine cotton import and textile export in future cotton trade negotiations, to emphases that China cotton market' further opening should be linked to textile clothing market's opening in US and other countnes.
引文
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[1](以)埃尔赫南·赫尔普曼,(美)保罗·R.克鲁格曼,译者：李增刚.贸易政策和市场结构[M].上海：上海人民出版社：2009
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