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转型时期FDI对中国产业发展的影响研究
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摘要
中国经济长期持续的高速发展已经成为经济增长史上的一个奇迹,探寻中国经济增长的背后的源泉与机制成为经济学家共同关注的热点。而且,中国经济高速增长的背后,是长期大规模的FDI流入。因此,了解FDI对产业发展的经济效应及其发生机制对于理解中国经济增长和进一步推动持续增长至关重要。已有众多FDI与经济增长的文献较少考虑到东道国的制度环境对FDI增长效应的影响,因而难以避免地得到不同、甚至是相互冲突的结论。本文从制度环境这一重要视角出发,从理论和实证两个层面分析了制度环境对FDI特征进而对FDI(在产业层面)经济效应的影响机制和效应。首先,我们通过文献梳理和统计分析研究了中国制度约束特点,制度环境如何影响流入中国的FDI的类型和特征等特征事实。其次,分析了制度环境影响FDI特征进而影响FDI在产业层面的经济绩效的理论机制。最后,从产业结构调整和产业增长效应两个方面对制度环境下的FDI经济效应进行了实证研究。其中,从空间经济学和制度约束视角,采用中国省级面板数据研究了FDI对产业结构调整的影响效应;采用系统GMM方法,利用中国省级层面的面板数据研究了制度环境对FDI产业增长效应的影响。本文主要得到如下结论:
     (1)FDI在各国的经济绩效差别很大,外商直接投资促进东道国增长是有条件的。FDI促进东道国增长所赖以发挥的溢出机制、技术带动机制等是需要东道国具备一定的人力资源和金融市场效率等的门槛。更为重要的是,FDI通过上述机制促进经济增长具有一定的制度门槛,制度环境对于FDI的经济效应具有关键作用,东道国和地区的制度质量是影响其FDI经济绩效的重要因素。
     (2)中国存在普遍性的制度扭曲,其中突出表现为:金融体制扭曲、地区市场分割、政府激励制度扭曲以及法律与产权保护制度不健全。转轨时期,国内经济制度环境以及FDI政策的演进对流入中国的FDI产生重要影响。这些根植于中国经济内部的制度扭曲对于转型时期中国的FDI流入特征具有非常深刻的影响,导致大量流入中国的FDI具有明显的非典型特征。对于中国的FDI而言,国内经济制度的扭曲很大程度上影响着FDI的进入模式与类型、结构。总体上,由于制度约束的存在,流入中国的FDI表现出:流入规模过大、项目整体偏小、集中于第二产业、集中于劳动密集型部门与中低技术密集型部门等特征。
     (3)我们从中国特殊的制度环境出发,从制度约束视角系统梳理了制度对FDI流入原因、流入规模、类型等的具体影响,提出了FDI研究的环境—战略—行为—绩效(ESCP)分析框架。制度约束下的FDI(企业)普遍缺乏关联效应、正面溢出效应受到“制度门槛”抑制、容易产生收入漏出等,总体上不利于产业增长与产业内部的高级化进程,不利于产业升级调整与发展方式转变。严重的外资依赖抑制了国内企业创新,FDI正面溢出效应大大削弱,负面溢出效应凸显。具体而言,收入漏出效应导致产业收缩,结构固化效应则导致第二产业内部结构长期锁定于中低端。制度对于引进外资非常重要,除了技术门槛,FDI正面溢出效应的产生还具有一定的“制度门槛”。当然,FDI大量流入对中国经济增长和产业结构调整发挥了较大的积极作用,但这种作用是在中国存在严重制度扭曲的条件下产生的,其成本高昂;应该重新审视高昂成本产生的机制及其对提高引资质量与提升利用外资效率的影响,在新时期引资政策中应以改善制度环境为依托提出相应的治理措施。
     (4)基于空间经济学,从制度约束视角,通过系统梳理中国特殊制度背景下FDI对产业结构调整的影响机制,并选取1985-2004年省际面板数据对二者关系进行实证检验。估计结果显示FDI占GDP比重增加有利于提高第三产业在经济中的比重、降低第二产业在经济中的比重;总体上有利于产业结构调整(有利于降低第二产业比重过大),并且FDI的产业结构调整效应呈“倒U型”走势。值得指出的是,FDI对第二产业比重降低的影响是通过收入漏出效应发生的,这非常不利于第二产业本身的高级化进程。FDI通过其资本供给、溢出效应带来了收入增长、产业扩张效应,推动产业发展、提升产业在经济中的比重。同时,在开放经济条件下以及制度约束下,外资企业垂直关联很少、外溢效益较弱,对FDI的过度依赖导致了收入漏出效应,使产业收缩、产业在国民经济中比重趋于下降。FDI的产业结构调整效应取决于两者的平衡;提升FDI对产业结构的优化效应也应从这两方面出发。
     (5)制度约束会导致FDI的增长效应将大大减少甚至为负;与之相反,如果一个地区的制度质量不断得到改善,将会有效地促进该地区FDI的增长效应。普遍性的制度约束,直接导致了FDI进入中国的超低成本,并进一步导致外资项目规模过小、外资企业出口导向过强、外资集聚于劳动力和资源密集型行业等非典型FDI特征。低廉进入成本以及流入中国的FDI的非典型特征,大大降低了FDI企业与本地企业的垂直关联,形成了收入漏出效应。因此导致FDI的溢出效应和增长效应减小甚至为负。与此同时,普遍性的制度约束降低了金融市场效率同时阻碍当地的人力资本积累,大大降低了本地区引入FDI高技术的吸收能力,弱化FDI的正向溢出效应。制度约束条件下,会影响资本和其他要素的配置效率,在这种情况下各地区对FDI的竞争更加容易引起全局性的配置效率下降,造成效率损失,在一定程度上抵消FDI本身所带来的增长效应。
     (6)采用中国各省区1990-2010年面板数据和系统GMM估计方法对制度环境与FDI产业增长效应的理论机制进行了实证检验。实证结果表明,在控制住了市场化程度的情况下,FDI的增长效应不再为正,甚至转变为显著的负效应。这说明东道国(地区)制度环境在FDI发挥增长效应过程中具有非常关键的作用,这也可能是诸多未考虑东道国制度环境条件下FDI与经济增长文献得出不同结论的根本原因。FDI对东道国(地区)的产业增长效应是通过当地制度环境改善来实现的,随着地区市场化程度的提高,FDI在该地区的产业增长效应显著增强。
     最后根据理论分析和实证研究结果,从制度环境提升、引进外商直接投资政策两个方面提出了通过改善和优化地区制度环境促进FDI经济增长效应的政策建议,以利于更好地形成国内改革与对外开放良性互动局面。
With the rapid development for a long time, China's economy has become a miracle in the history of economic growth, exploring the source and the mechanism behind China's economic growth become a hot topic for economists. Moreover, which behind China's rapid economic growth is a long-term large-scale FDI inflows. Therefore, to better understand China's economic growth and further promote the sustained growth, it is crucially important for us to understand the economic effect of FDI on industrial development and its mechanism. Most literatures on FDI and economic growth have less considered the effects of host institutional environment on FDI growth effect, and thus inevitably have gained different and even conflicting conclusions. Based on the important perspective of institutional environment, this paper theoretically and empirically analyzes the mechanism and the effects of institutional environment on FDI characteristics and then on FDI economic effect (at the industry level). Firstly, through literature review and statistical analysis, we explore the characteristics of China's institutional constraints and how institutional environment affect the types and features of China's FDI flows. Secondly, we analyze the theorical mechanism which institutional environment affect the characteristics of FDI and then affect FDI economic performance at the industry level. Finally, from the two aspects of industrial structure adjustment and industry growth effect, we empirically study the economic effect of FDI under institutional environment. Among them, based on the perspective of spatial economics and institutional constraints, we study the effect of FDI on industrial structure adjustment by using Chinese provincial panel data; Using the system GMM method, we study the effect of institutional environment on the industry growth effect of FDI. In this paper, our conclusions are as following:
     (1)The economic performance of FDI largely varies from country to country, it is conditional for FDI to promote the host's growth. To obtain FDI spillovers and FDI technology driven mechanism which the host's growth need, the host country need reach the thresholds of a certain human resources and financial market efficiency, etc. More importantly, there has been institutional threshold for FDI to promote economic growth by the mechanism of above, institutional environment plays a key role for the economic effects of FDI, the institution quality of host countries and regions is an important factor that affect FDI economic performance.
     (2) There have been universally institutional distortions in China, which outstand are:the distortion of financial system, regional market segmentation,the distorted government incentive system and the imperfect law and Property rights protection, In transition period, domestic economic institution environment and the evolution of FDI policy have played important effects on FDI inflows in China. The institution distortions grounding in China's economic internal have a very profound effect on China's FDI inflows,which lead to the atypical characteristics of FDI. For China's FDI, the distortions of domestic economic system largely affect the model of FDI inflows, the structure and type of FDI. Overall, because of institutional constraints, China's FDI flows have showed the characteristics:too-large scale, too small of the whole project, mostly concentrated in the second industry, concentrated in labor-intensive and low technology-intensive departments etc.
     (3) Based on China's specific institutional environment, from the perspective of institutional constraints system, we comb systematicly the specific impact of institution on FDI inflows, the scale, the types and so on, and then we propose an analysis framework of environment-strategy-conduction-performance (ESCP). Under the restriction of institution, FDI (enterprises) generally lack of correlation effect, and positive spillovers have affected by the "institution threshold",FDI is easy to generate revenue leakage and so on, which is not conducive overall to industry growth and industry high-level internal process and is not conducive to industrial upgrading adjustment and the change of the pattern of economic development. Serious foreign dependence has inhibited the domestic enterprise innovation, positive spillover effects of FDI have greatly weakened and the negative effects prominent. Specifically, revenue leakage effect leads to industry contractions, the structure solidification effect leads to the second industry internal structure locked in low-end for a long time. Institution is very important for the introduction of foreign capital, in addition to the technical threshold, the positive spillover effect of FDI also has a certain "institution threshold".
     Of course, FDI influx has played a positive role for China's economic growth and industrial structure adjustment. But this effect existed in China under the condition of serious instutional distortions, which's cost is very high. We Should re-examine the mechanism which causes high cost, improve the quality of foreign investment and improve the efficiency of the utilization of foreign capital. In the new period, china's foreign investment policy should put forward the corresponding control measures based on improving institutional environment.
     (4) Based on spatial economics, from the perspectives of institutional constraints we comb systematicly the mechanisms of FDI on industrial structure adjustment under the background of China's special institutions. we select1985-2004provincial panel datas to empirically test the relationships. The estimation results show that the increasing proportion of FDI/GDP contributes to raise the proportion of the tertiary industry in the economic and reduce the proportion of secondary industry in the economy. On the whole, which is conducive to the adjustment of industrial structure, the reducing too-large proportion of the secondary industry, and the adjustment of industrial structure effect of FDI is "inverted U". To mentioned, the effects of FDI on the reducing proportion of secondary industry generate through the income effect eakage, which is very disadvantageous to the Upgrading process of second industry itself.
     Through capital supply and spillover effects, FDI bring income growth, industry expansion effect and promote industry development, improve the proportion of industry in the economy. At the same time, under the open economy and the institutional constraints, foreign enterprises rarely generate vertical correlation and weak spillover benefits. Excessive dependence on FDI has led to the income leakage effects, the industry shrink and the proportion of industry in the national economy tend to decline. The effect of FDI on industrial structure adjustment depends on both the balance. Therefore, to promote the effect of FDI on industrial structure optimization, we should start according to the two aspects.
     (5) Institutional constraints will lead to growth effect of FDI greatly reduce or even become negative. In contrast, it will be effectively promote the growth effect of FDI if the region's institutional quality continues to improve. Universal institutional constraints result in the low cost of China's FDI inflows and further lead to the size of foreign investment project is too small, foreign-funded enterprises'too strong export-oriented and concentrated in labor-intensive and resource-intensive industries. Low costs of FDI inflows into China and FDI's atypical features, greatly reduced the vertical correlation of FDI enterprises and local enterprises, which lead to revenue leakage effect. Thus leading to the reduction of spillover effect of FDI and growth effect or even the total effect is negative. At the same time, Universal institutional constraints reduce the efficiency of financial market while preventing the accumulation of local human capital, thus greatly reducing the region's absorption capacity of high-tech FDI and weakening the positive spillover effect of FDI. Institutional constraints will influence the allocation efficiency of capital and other factors. Thus result in the decrease of overall allocation efficiency regional if there is a intense competition for FDI between the regions. Which will result in the loss of efficiency, and offset FDI's own growth effects to some extent.
     (6) This paper empirically test the theoretical mechanism of institutional environment and industry growth effects of FDI using Chinese provinces1990-2010panel datas and the estimation method of system GMM. Empirical result shows that the growth effects of FDI are no longer positive after controlling the degree of market, or even become significant negative effect. It indicates that the host country (region) institutional environment has played a crucial role in the process of growth effect of FDI. It may also be the fundamental reason that a lot of FDI and economic growth literatures come to different conclusions without considering the host country institutional environment. FDI's industry growth effect in the host country (region) achieved through improved local institutional environment. The industrial growth effect of FDI will significantly enhanced along with the improvement of the regional degree of market.
     Finally, we put forward policy recommendations from the institutional environment improvement and attract foreign investment, according to the theoretical analysis and empirical results. We must improve and optimize the regional institutional environment to promote economic growth effect of FDI, in order to form the interaction situation of domestic reform and opening-up.
引文
① 据报道,为了完成引资任务,各地区出现大面积的“购买”假外资的现象,给基层政府带来了沉重的债务负担。详见:王培霖.揭秘地方政府“买外资”产业链,第一财经日报2013-08-29http://www.yicai.com/news/2013/08/2971629.html
    ① 本文所指的制度主要是从相对宏观层面来看的制度环境,在具体实证中,考虑到数据可获得性与本文制度环境涵盖的范围,选取文献中普遍引用的樊纲、王小鲁、朱恒鹏(2011)编制的市场化总指数及其分项来刻画制度环境的改善(或称:制度约束的缓解),大量文献表明这个指数可以比较稳健地反映中国制度环境的变迁(夏立军、方轶强,2005;Li et al.,2006:Chen et al,2009;赵奇伟,2009;Gao et al,2010;郑志刚、邓贺斐,2010;樊纲、王小鲁、马光荣,2011;Li et al,2011;张杰、李克、刘志彪,2011),我们认为,它可以稳健地反映制度环境变化对中国FDI及其经济绩效的影响。
    ① 王培霖.揭秘地方政府“买外资”产业链,第一财经日报2013-08-29http://www.yicai.com/news/2013/08/2971629.html
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