学生贷款违约影响因素研究
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摘要
一份份的学生贷款合同承载着学生个体对改变命运的希望,承载着国家对促进社会公平正义的信念;一串串的国家助学贷款违约数据,甚至屡屡曝光的国家助学贷款拖欠诉讼案例,则在动摇着人们对社会公平正义、高等教育和学生贷款先前的信念和坚持。这严重地阻碍了学生贷款的可持续发展。可以说,违约是影响学生贷款可持续发展的重要障碍。但在无休止的因果链中,违约又必然是某事物,或某事物之间运动的必然结果。然而,这里的某事物是何物?某事物之间的运动又是何物?对这两个问题的回答无疑是违约问题解决的基础。
由果索因,即根据事物的发展变化过程中某一时空的状态,推断促成此状态的原因,是因果研究的最基本的方法。因此,对于学生违约结果本身的科学分析就成为揭示学生违约原因的基本途径。基于此,本研究以1690名进入还款期的借款学生为样本,通过因子分析、判别分析、聚类分析和Logistic模型分析等方法,揭示学生的还款状态(守约或违约)与其影响变量间的统计性联系,从而推断学生违约发生的原因。研究发现,影响学生违约的最重要的因素是学生贷款的总额度和单位时间内还款的额度。学生贷款额度越大,违约率则越高;学生单位时间所需偿还贷款的额度越大,违约率也越高;反之亦然。然而,学生贷款的违约不仅仅是借款学生的私事,而是一个涉及到学校、银行和社会的社会性问题,而且充满争议。基于学生个人偿还贷款的结果状态的因果分析的科学性将受到一定的限制。因此全面地理解学生贷款违约的影响因素,需要倾听国家助学贷款各运行主体的声音。论文通过对学生、教师、银行,以及社会公众的调研发现,学生偿还能力、还款意愿和社会信用制度对借款学生的违约行为有重要影响,而偿还能力是其中最为关键性的因素。这个结论也支持了由果索因的推断。
以上两种方式都揭示了还款能力是学生违约的最关键因素。那么,事实上,借款学生的经济状况如何呢?只有当这个问题得到解答,才能对“偿还能力是违约因素中最为关键性的因素”这一论断进行最后的判断。本研究以国家相关部门的统计数据和相关研究为基础,谨慎测算出近年来全国本专科毕业生分不同单位性质、地区、分行业收入的收入水平,发现新参加工作的本专科毕业生收入普遍偏低,而且据就业单位的性质、地区或行业的不同收入差距悬殊。这导致不少的毕业生债务偿还能力不足。至此,可以科学地认为:偿还能力是影响违约的最为关键性的因素。
然而,借款学生的偿还能力是如何与其他因素一起影响学生还贷的行为选择的呢?本研究在揭示违约因素的基础上,借鉴心理学的“计划行为理论”,分析了解释学生违约发生的机理,并认为:借款学生的偿还资源是行为选择的物质基础,偿还意向是行为选择的动力机制,偿还情境是行为选择的制约机制;借款学生的意志水平和对偿还行为实际的控制能力是行为发生的调节机制,借款学生偿还行为选择的(预期)结果及相应的社会评价是偿还行为的反馈机制。因此,学生还贷行为的选择,是由借款学生还贷的意向、偿还的情境条件、可用于还贷的资源,以及偿还贷款行为的意志和控制能力共同作用的结果。最后提出了化解中国学生贷款违约的若干改革建议。
For the college students, the student loans are their hope of change their lives. Student loans are also tools to a more social justice. The high default ratio and many file cases with the loan default thwart the sustainability of student loan program and injure the belief and insistence in social justice and student loan. The loan default is the obstacle to the sustainability of loan program. But in the cycle of causes and results, default is inevitable result of interaction of some factors. This research aimed to discover these factors and their interaction.
To trace the causes of the results is one of the basic methods in the research. So to make the scientific examination of the loan default is the basic means of disclose the factors affecting the probability of default. This study collected 1690 samples of borrowing students who were repaying their loans. Through factor analysis, discriminant analysis, cluster analysis and logistic model, this study reveals the statistical relation between the repaying state of the borrowing students and major variants, deduce the factors affecting the probability of default. Found that the most important factors are the total debts and the amount of repayment. The bigger debts, the higher default ratio. The bigger amount of repayment, the higher default ratio, and vice versa. The student loan default is not only the personal issue of the borrowing students. It is related with the higher education institutions, lending banks and society. It's a social issue and is controversial. The results based only on the repayment of the borrowing students can not fully explain the factors concerning the default. So we need to listen to the voice of the participants of the student loans program. Based on the survey data from the students, faculty members, banks and the general public, this research found that the students' repayment abilities, repayment willingness and social credit system have great influence on the default behavior of the students. But the repayment ability is the critical factor. The deduction mentioned above also got the same result.
From the two aspects, we found the repayment ability is the critical factor. So what the economic status of the borrowing students? Only this question can be answered can we get the final answer to "repayment ability is the critical factor". Based on the statistical data and relevant research findings, this research made a cautious calculation of the income levels of undergraduates in different employment units, different locations, different industries in recent years. Research found that undergraduates usually got low income at the beginning of their employment and their income gap quite wide. This means that many of the graduates lack the repayment ability.
How the student lenders repaying ability and other factors influence the repaying behavior? This research disclosed factors affecting the probability of default. Based on the theory of planned behavior, explain the mechanism of loan default. Found that the income is the basis of repayment, the repayment willingness is the dynamics of behavior Option, and the repayment circumstance is the restraint mechanism. The student's self control ability to repayment is regulating mechanism. The result from their behavior Option and social evaluation is the feedback mechanism. So, the student's behavior is a common outcome of the repayment willingness, repayment circumstance, the resources available and self control ability to repayment.
由果索因,即根据事物的发展变化过程中某一时空的状态,推断促成此状态的原因,是因果研究的最基本的方法。因此,对于学生违约结果本身的科学分析就成为揭示学生违约原因的基本途径。基于此,本研究以1690名进入还款期的借款学生为样本,通过因子分析、判别分析、聚类分析和Logistic模型分析等方法,揭示学生的还款状态(守约或违约)与其影响变量间的统计性联系,从而推断学生违约发生的原因。研究发现,影响学生违约的最重要的因素是学生贷款的总额度和单位时间内还款的额度。学生贷款额度越大,违约率则越高;学生单位时间所需偿还贷款的额度越大,违约率也越高;反之亦然。然而,学生贷款的违约不仅仅是借款学生的私事,而是一个涉及到学校、银行和社会的社会性问题,而且充满争议。基于学生个人偿还贷款的结果状态的因果分析的科学性将受到一定的限制。因此全面地理解学生贷款违约的影响因素,需要倾听国家助学贷款各运行主体的声音。论文通过对学生、教师、银行,以及社会公众的调研发现,学生偿还能力、还款意愿和社会信用制度对借款学生的违约行为有重要影响,而偿还能力是其中最为关键性的因素。这个结论也支持了由果索因的推断。
以上两种方式都揭示了还款能力是学生违约的最关键因素。那么,事实上,借款学生的经济状况如何呢?只有当这个问题得到解答,才能对“偿还能力是违约因素中最为关键性的因素”这一论断进行最后的判断。本研究以国家相关部门的统计数据和相关研究为基础,谨慎测算出近年来全国本专科毕业生分不同单位性质、地区、分行业收入的收入水平,发现新参加工作的本专科毕业生收入普遍偏低,而且据就业单位的性质、地区或行业的不同收入差距悬殊。这导致不少的毕业生债务偿还能力不足。至此,可以科学地认为:偿还能力是影响违约的最为关键性的因素。
然而,借款学生的偿还能力是如何与其他因素一起影响学生还贷的行为选择的呢?本研究在揭示违约因素的基础上,借鉴心理学的“计划行为理论”,分析了解释学生违约发生的机理,并认为:借款学生的偿还资源是行为选择的物质基础,偿还意向是行为选择的动力机制,偿还情境是行为选择的制约机制;借款学生的意志水平和对偿还行为实际的控制能力是行为发生的调节机制,借款学生偿还行为选择的(预期)结果及相应的社会评价是偿还行为的反馈机制。因此,学生还贷行为的选择,是由借款学生还贷的意向、偿还的情境条件、可用于还贷的资源,以及偿还贷款行为的意志和控制能力共同作用的结果。最后提出了化解中国学生贷款违约的若干改革建议。
For the college students, the student loans are their hope of change their lives. Student loans are also tools to a more social justice. The high default ratio and many file cases with the loan default thwart the sustainability of student loan program and injure the belief and insistence in social justice and student loan. The loan default is the obstacle to the sustainability of loan program. But in the cycle of causes and results, default is inevitable result of interaction of some factors. This research aimed to discover these factors and their interaction.
To trace the causes of the results is one of the basic methods in the research. So to make the scientific examination of the loan default is the basic means of disclose the factors affecting the probability of default. This study collected 1690 samples of borrowing students who were repaying their loans. Through factor analysis, discriminant analysis, cluster analysis and logistic model, this study reveals the statistical relation between the repaying state of the borrowing students and major variants, deduce the factors affecting the probability of default. Found that the most important factors are the total debts and the amount of repayment. The bigger debts, the higher default ratio. The bigger amount of repayment, the higher default ratio, and vice versa. The student loan default is not only the personal issue of the borrowing students. It is related with the higher education institutions, lending banks and society. It's a social issue and is controversial. The results based only on the repayment of the borrowing students can not fully explain the factors concerning the default. So we need to listen to the voice of the participants of the student loans program. Based on the survey data from the students, faculty members, banks and the general public, this research found that the students' repayment abilities, repayment willingness and social credit system have great influence on the default behavior of the students. But the repayment ability is the critical factor. The deduction mentioned above also got the same result.
From the two aspects, we found the repayment ability is the critical factor. So what the economic status of the borrowing students? Only this question can be answered can we get the final answer to "repayment ability is the critical factor". Based on the statistical data and relevant research findings, this research made a cautious calculation of the income levels of undergraduates in different employment units, different locations, different industries in recent years. Research found that undergraduates usually got low income at the beginning of their employment and their income gap quite wide. This means that many of the graduates lack the repayment ability.
How the student lenders repaying ability and other factors influence the repaying behavior? This research disclosed factors affecting the probability of default. Based on the theory of planned behavior, explain the mechanism of loan default. Found that the income is the basis of repayment, the repayment willingness is the dynamics of behavior Option, and the repayment circumstance is the restraint mechanism. The student's self control ability to repayment is regulating mechanism. The result from their behavior Option and social evaluation is the feedback mechanism. So, the student's behavior is a common outcome of the repayment willingness, repayment circumstance, the resources available and self control ability to repayment.
引文
1 杨博.高校助学贷款违约率高 贫困学生需交“诚信险”[EB/OL].http://news.tom.com/1002/3291/2004112-1488276.html
2 何涛.助学贷款喜和忧:贷款量增加 贷后踝踪管理难[EB/OL].http://www.scol.com.cn/technology/wjzx/20040920/2004920102820.htm
3 张晓晶.山东助学贷款难解“渴”银行方面喊“烫手”[EB/OL].http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2005-12/14/content_3920242.htm
4 任晓刚.申请助学贷款比讨饭还难 青海贫困学生多现病态[EB/OL].http://www.zjol.com.cn/05china/system/2005/11/03/006355726.shtml
5 中国工商银行股份有限公司广东分行债务催收公告[EB/OL].http://www.chsi.com.cn/xlrz/200611/20061121/697592.htm
6 中国工商银行股份有限公司北京市分行债务催收公告[EB/OL].http://www.chsi.com.cn/xlrz/200707/20070717/1025246.html
1 崔邦焱.扎实推进,狠抓落实,开创国家助学贷款工作新局面[J].教育财会研究,2006,(3):3-10.
2 中国人民银行.国家助学贷款指导性贷款计划的通知.2003-8-8.
3 这是一起生源地一般商业性助学贷款被诉案件。(参见新华网湖北频道:《黄石首例助学贷款官司。银行把贫困
1 黄大海.违约贷款回收率:基于国外实证研究的分析[J].上海金融,2006,(10):55-58
1 Douglas Albrecht and Adrian Ziderman.Deferred Cost Recovery for Higher Education Student Loan Programs in Developing Countries[M].The World Bank,,Washington,,D.C.1991.16.
2 Adrian Ziderman.Policy Options for Student Loan Schemes Lessons from Five Asian Case Studies[M].Thailand Bangkok:UNESCO/IIEP,,2004:110
3 U.S.Department of Education Federal Student Aid.Funding Education Beyond High School:The Guide to Federal Student Aid(2007-08),2006:39.
4 彼得·纽曼,,默里·米尔盖特,,约翰·伊特韦尔.新帕尔格雷夫货币金融学大辞典(第一卷).北京,,经济科学出版社,,2000,7.524。
1 Maureen Woodhall.Establishing Student Loans in Developing Countries:Some Guidelines[R].World Bank,,1987:18.
2 上海远东资信评估有限公司.关于银行间市场债券评级业务相关资料的公示,,2005,12.44-50
3 中国工商银行.中国工商银行个人住房贷款风险预警及整改工作若干规定(2000-2-21)
1 U.S.Department of Education Default Prevention and Management.How Rates are Calculated.2006:3.
2 在美国学生贷款中,一个学生往往有好几种(笔)贷款,比如说学生A有三笔贷款且都在2005财年进入还款期,如果学生A在2005,2006财年度中这三笔贷款都不还的话,在计算人数违约率时,也就只计算一次。同时,如果学生有两笔贷款都能按时偿还,而有一笔贷款没有偿还,在计算人数违约率时,也被计算一次
3 中国人民银行.关于下达2003年度国家助学贷款指导性贷款计划的通知,2003-08-08
4 据人民银行某分行调查,截止2005年10月底,某省尚有未偿清助学贷款毕业生15075人,其中4282人未按规定还本付息,违约率为28.4%。(2006年1月16日,中国人民银行副行长苏宁“个人信用信息基础数据库正式运行新闻通气会”上的讲话)
1 崔邦焱.扎实推进,狠抓落实,开创国家助学贷款工作新局面[J].教育财会研究,2006,(3):3-10
2 “Default”:①未履行义务或没遵守法律;违约(failure to do something required by duty or law);②未能偿还财政上的债务(a failure to pay financial debts);“Delinquent”:①失职的:未履行法律或职贲所要求做到的(offending by neglect or violation of duty or of law);②多用于贷款中,指到期还未付(more at LOAN,being overdue in payment);"Delinquency”,①违法行为;失职;拖欠(a delinquent act);②逾期债款:一笔过了期还未偿付的欠债或其它财政义务(A debt or other financial obligation on which payment is overdue)。(参考a)Merriam-Webster's Collegiate Dictionary Eleventh Edition;b)金山词霸2006)。
1 李红桃.国家助学贷款运行机制研究[D].华中科技大学,2005.11:82。例证:(1)Borrwers are delinquent if they have not made a payment for 31 to 180 days and in default if they have not made a payment for more than 180days.(United States General Accounting Office(1997),Direct Student Loans:Analyses of Borrowers' Use of the Income Contingent Repayment Option);(2) Default for a FFEL or Direct Loan occurs if you become 270 days delinquent(if you're making monthly payments) or 330 days delinquent if you pay less often than monthly.(Repaying Your Student Loans.
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4 Jandhyala N.G.Tilak & N.V.Varghese.Financing Higher Education in India,Higher Education.Kluwer Academic Publishers.1991,(21):83-101.
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3 Sandy Baum,Diane Saunders.Life after Debt:Results of the National Student Loan Survey(Final Report)[R].Nellie Mae,February,1998.
1 Robin McMillion.TG's Student Loan Default Literature Review,Texas Guaranteed Student Loan Corporation,2005
2 Elizabeth Herr and Larry Burr.Predicting Student Loan Default for the University of Texas at Austin[J].NASFAA Journal of Student Financial Aid,2004(2):27-49.
1 Bergen,M.Betsy,Bergen,Gerald R.,& Miller,Donald G.Do G.P.A.and loan size affect NDSL repayments?[J].Journal of College Student Personnel,1972(13):65-67.
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3 Laura Greene.An Economic Analysis of Student Loan Default[J].Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis,1989(1):61-68
4 Texas Guaranteed Student Loan Corporation.Student Loan Defaults in Texas Yesterday,Today,and Tomorrow[R],1998
5 Matt Steiner and Natali Teszler.The Characteristics Associated with Student Loan Default at Texas A&M University [M].January 2003.Austin,TX
6 Sandra Barone.Multivariate Analysis of Student Loan Defaulters at Prairie View A&M University.December[M],2006.Austin,TX
7 Michael Podgursky,Mark Ehlert,Ryan Monroe and Donald Watson.Student Loan Defaults and Enrollment Persistence,2000;Charles F.Seifert and Lorenz Worden.Two Studies Assessing the Effectiveness of Early Intervention on the Default Behavior of Student Loan Borrowers.NASFAA Journal of Student Financial Aid,2004(3):41-52.
8 Craig Rorie and John Pierson.Reducing Delinquency and Default:How Schools Can Help.FSA Default Prevention and Management U.S.Department of Education,2005 NASFAA Default Prevention.
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5 Adrian Ziderman,Policy Options for Student Loan Schemes Lessons from Five Asian Case Studies[M].Thailand Bangkok:UNESCO/IIEP,2004
1 Tracey King & Ellynne Bannon.The burden of borrowing:A report on the rising rates of student loan debt.Washington DC:The State PIRGs'Higher Education Project,March 2002
2 Maureen Woodhall.Student Loans:Potential,Problems and Lessons from International Experience[J].JHEA/RESA,2004(2):37-51
3 Derek V.Price.Student Loan Forbearance and its Relationship to Default.Higher Education Research Highlights,November,2001.
4 John F.Brugel and Gary P.Johnson.The Demand for Student Loans in Higher Education:A Study of Preferences and Attitudes[J].Research in Higher Education,1977(1):65-83
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7 2007年6月6-8日,在北京大学召开的由中国财政部、教育部和世界银行主办的“后义务教育财政问题”高层研讨会中,回答学者提问时阐述此观点
8 Wellford W.Wilms,Richard W.Moore,Roger E.Bolus.Whose Fault is Default? A Study of the Impact of Student Characteristics and Institutional Practices on Guaranteed Student Loan Default Rates in California[J].Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis,1987(1):41-54.
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[1]国务院关于建立健全普通本科高校高等职业学校和中等职业学校家庭经济困难学生资助(2007-5-21).
[2]国务院办公厅.国务院办公厅转发教育部、财政部、中国人民银行、银监会关于进一步完善国家助学贷款工作若干意见的通知(2004-6-12).
[3]国务院办公厅.国务院办公厅转发中国人民银行等部门关于国家助学贷款管理规定(试行)的通知(1999-6-17).
[4]国务院办公厅.国务院办公厅转发中国人民银行等部门关于助学贷款管理补充意见的通知(2000-8-26).
[5]国务院办公厅.国务院办公厅转发中国人民银行等部门关于助学贷款管理的若干意见的通知(2000-2-1).
[6]中国工商银行.中国工商银行个人住房贷款风险预警及整改工作若干规定(2000-2-21).
[7]中国人民银行、财政部、教育部、国家税务总局.关于进一步推进国家助学贷款业务发展的通知(2001-7-27)
[8]中国人民银行、教育部、财政部.关于切实推进助学贷款工作的通知(2002-2-07).
[9]中国人民银行、银监会.关于加快落实国家助学贷款新政策有关事宜的通知(2005-2-23).
[10]中国人民银行.关于下达2003年度国家助学贷款指导性贷款计划的通知 (2003-8-8).
[11]中国人民银行.关于做好家庭经济困难学生助学贷款工作的通知(2007-7-25).
[12]中华人民共和国教育部、中华人民共和国财政部.关于认真做好高等学校家庭经济困难学生认定工作的指导意见(2007-06-26).
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2 何涛.助学贷款喜和忧:贷款量增加 贷后踝踪管理难[EB/OL].http://www.scol.com.cn/technology/wjzx/20040920/2004920102820.htm
3 张晓晶.山东助学贷款难解“渴”银行方面喊“烫手”[EB/OL].http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2005-12/14/content_3920242.htm
4 任晓刚.申请助学贷款比讨饭还难 青海贫困学生多现病态[EB/OL].http://www.zjol.com.cn/05china/system/2005/11/03/006355726.shtml
5 中国工商银行股份有限公司广东分行债务催收公告[EB/OL].http://www.chsi.com.cn/xlrz/200611/20061121/697592.htm
6 中国工商银行股份有限公司北京市分行债务催收公告[EB/OL].http://www.chsi.com.cn/xlrz/200707/20070717/1025246.html
1 崔邦焱.扎实推进,狠抓落实,开创国家助学贷款工作新局面[J].教育财会研究,2006,(3):3-10.
2 中国人民银行.国家助学贷款指导性贷款计划的通知.2003-8-8.
3 这是一起生源地一般商业性助学贷款被诉案件。(参见新华网湖北频道:《黄石首例助学贷款官司。银行把贫困
1 黄大海.违约贷款回收率:基于国外实证研究的分析[J].上海金融,2006,(10):55-58
1 Douglas Albrecht and Adrian Ziderman.Deferred Cost Recovery for Higher Education Student Loan Programs in Developing Countries[M].The World Bank,,Washington,,D.C.1991.16.
2 Adrian Ziderman.Policy Options for Student Loan Schemes Lessons from Five Asian Case Studies[M].Thailand Bangkok:UNESCO/IIEP,,2004:110
3 U.S.Department of Education Federal Student Aid.Funding Education Beyond High School:The Guide to Federal Student Aid(2007-08),2006:39.
4 彼得·纽曼,,默里·米尔盖特,,约翰·伊特韦尔.新帕尔格雷夫货币金融学大辞典(第一卷).北京,,经济科学出版社,,2000,7.524。
1 Maureen Woodhall.Establishing Student Loans in Developing Countries:Some Guidelines[R].World Bank,,1987:18.
2 上海远东资信评估有限公司.关于银行间市场债券评级业务相关资料的公示,,2005,12.44-50
3 中国工商银行.中国工商银行个人住房贷款风险预警及整改工作若干规定(2000-2-21)
1 U.S.Department of Education Default Prevention and Management.How Rates are Calculated.2006:3.
2 在美国学生贷款中,一个学生往往有好几种(笔)贷款,比如说学生A有三笔贷款且都在2005财年进入还款期,如果学生A在2005,2006财年度中这三笔贷款都不还的话,在计算人数违约率时,也就只计算一次。同时,如果学生有两笔贷款都能按时偿还,而有一笔贷款没有偿还,在计算人数违约率时,也被计算一次
3 中国人民银行.关于下达2003年度国家助学贷款指导性贷款计划的通知,2003-08-08
4 据人民银行某分行调查,截止2005年10月底,某省尚有未偿清助学贷款毕业生15075人,其中4282人未按规定还本付息,违约率为28.4%。(2006年1月16日,中国人民银行副行长苏宁“个人信用信息基础数据库正式运行新闻通气会”上的讲话)
1 崔邦焱.扎实推进,狠抓落实,开创国家助学贷款工作新局面[J].教育财会研究,2006,(3):3-10
2 “Default”:①未履行义务或没遵守法律;违约(failure to do something required by duty or law);②未能偿还财政上的债务(a failure to pay financial debts);“Delinquent”:①失职的:未履行法律或职贲所要求做到的(offending by neglect or violation of duty or of law);②多用于贷款中,指到期还未付(more at LOAN,being overdue in payment);"Delinquency”,①违法行为;失职;拖欠(a delinquent act);②逾期债款:一笔过了期还未偿付的欠债或其它财政义务(A debt or other financial obligation on which payment is overdue)。(参考a)Merriam-Webster's Collegiate Dictionary Eleventh Edition;b)金山词霸2006)。
1 李红桃.国家助学贷款运行机制研究[D].华中科技大学,2005.11:82。例证:(1)Borrwers are delinquent if they have not made a payment for 31 to 180 days and in default if they have not made a payment for more than 180days.(United States General Accounting Office(1997),Direct Student Loans:Analyses of Borrowers' Use of the Income Contingent Repayment Option);(2) Default for a FFEL or Direct Loan occurs if you become 270 days delinquent(if you're making monthly payments) or 330 days delinquent if you pay less often than monthly.(Repaying Your Student Loans.
2 Maureen Woodhall.Student Loans as a Means of Financing Higher Education:Lessons from International Experience [P].World Bank,Number 599,1983:3.
3 Maureen Woodhall.Lending for Learning:Designing a Student Loan Programme for Developing Countries[M].London:Commonwealth Secretariat,1987:20
4 Maureen Woodhall.Student Loans in Developing Countries:Feasibility,Experience and Prospects for Reform.Higher Education.Vol.23,1992,347-356
1 布鲁斯·约翰斯通.高等教育财政:问题与出路[M],沈红、李红桃.北京:人民教育出版社,2004..
2 Douglas Albrecht and Adrian Ziderman.Deferred Cost Recovery for Higher Education Student Loan Programs in Developing Countries[M].The World Bank,Washington,D.C.1991.16.
3 Bruce Chapman.A Submission on Financing Issues to the Department of Education Science and Training Inquiry into Higher Education.2002;Bruce Chapman and Chris Ryan.Higher Education Financing and Student Access:A Review of the Literature,2003;Bruce Chapman and David Greenaway.Learning to Live with Loans:International Policy Transfer and the Funding of Higher Education.The World Economy.2006
4 Jandhyala N.G.Tilak & N.V.Varghese.Financing Higher Education in India,Higher Education.Kluwer Academic Publishers.1991,(21):83-101.
1 David H.Stockharn and Jon S.Hesseldenz.Predicting National Direct Student Loan Defaults:The Role of Personality Data[J].Research in Higher Education,Vol.10,No.3,1979,195-205
2 Fredericks Volkwein and Bruce Szelest.Individual and Campus Characteristics Associated with Student Loan Default [J].Research in Higher Education,1995(1):41-72;Fredericks Volkwein and Bruce Szelest.The Relationship of Student Loan Default to Individual and Campus Characteristics[C],AIR,1994,Annual Forum Paper:Fredericks Volkwein,Alberto Cabrera,and Michelle Napierski.Factors Associated with Student Loan Default among Different Racial and Ethnic Groups[J].The Journal of Higher Education,1998(2):206-237;Fredericks Volkwein,Alberto Cabrera,Bruce Szelest and Michelle Napierski.Characteristics of Student Loan Defaulters among Different Racial and Ethnic Groups [C].1995.
3 Sandy Baum,Diane Saunders.Life after Debt:Results of the National Student Loan Survey(Final Report)[R].Nellie Mae,February,1998.
1 Robin McMillion.TG's Student Loan Default Literature Review,Texas Guaranteed Student Loan Corporation,2005
2 Elizabeth Herr and Larry Burr.Predicting Student Loan Default for the University of Texas at Austin[J].NASFAA Journal of Student Financial Aid,2004(2):27-49.
1 Bergen,M.Betsy,Bergen,Gerald R.,& Miller,Donald G.Do G.P.A.and loan size affect NDSL repayments?[J].Journal of College Student Personnel,1972(13):65-67.
2 David H.Stockham and Jon S.Hesseldenz.Predicting National Direct Student Loan Defaults:The Role of Personality Data[J].Research in Higher Education,Vol.10,No.3,1979,195-205.
3 Laura Greene.An Economic Analysis of Student Loan Default[J].Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis,1989(1):61-68
4 Texas Guaranteed Student Loan Corporation.Student Loan Defaults in Texas Yesterday,Today,and Tomorrow[R],1998
5 Matt Steiner and Natali Teszler.The Characteristics Associated with Student Loan Default at Texas A&M University [M].January 2003.Austin,TX
6 Sandra Barone.Multivariate Analysis of Student Loan Defaulters at Prairie View A&M University.December[M],2006.Austin,TX
7 Michael Podgursky,Mark Ehlert,Ryan Monroe and Donald Watson.Student Loan Defaults and Enrollment Persistence,2000;Charles F.Seifert and Lorenz Worden.Two Studies Assessing the Effectiveness of Early Intervention on the Default Behavior of Student Loan Borrowers.NASFAA Journal of Student Financial Aid,2004(3):41-52.
8 Craig Rorie and John Pierson.Reducing Delinquency and Default:How Schools Can Help.FSA Default Prevention and Management U.S.Department of Education,2005 NASFAA Default Prevention.
1 Maureen Woodhail.Student Loans as a Means of Financing Higher Education:Lessons from International Experience [R].World Bank,Number 599,1983.
2 Saul Schwartz.The Dark Side of Student Loans:Debt Burden,Default,and Bankruptcy[J].Osgoode Hall Law Journal,1999(1):307-338
3 Igor Kitanv,Teresita Nadurata,Virginia Resurrection,Freddie Boreal.Student Loans in the Philippines:Lessons from the Past[M].Thailand Bangkok:UNESCO/IIEP,2003:55
4 Praveen Mohadeb.Student Loans Schemes in Mauritius.Experience,Analysis and Scenarios[M].UNESCO/IIEP,2006;Alejandro Antonioli.El Credito Educativo en el Peru:el Caso de la Pontificia Univcrsidad Catolica del Peru,Pan-American Student Loan Conference March 22-23,2007,Lima Peru.
5 Adrian Ziderman,Policy Options for Student Loan Schemes Lessons from Five Asian Case Studies[M].Thailand Bangkok:UNESCO/IIEP,2004
1 Tracey King & Ellynne Bannon.The burden of borrowing:A report on the rising rates of student loan debt.Washington DC:The State PIRGs'Higher Education Project,March 2002
2 Maureen Woodhall.Student Loans:Potential,Problems and Lessons from International Experience[J].JHEA/RESA,2004(2):37-51
3 Derek V.Price.Student Loan Forbearance and its Relationship to Default.Higher Education Research Highlights,November,2001.
4 John F.Brugel and Gary P.Johnson.The Demand for Student Loans in Higher Education:A Study of Preferences and Attitudes[J].Research in Higher Education,1977(1):65-83
5 Maureen Woodhall.Student Loans as a Means of Financing Higher Education:Lessons from International Experience [R].World Bank,Number 599,1983
6 Jamil Salmi.Student Loans in an International Perspective:The World Bank Experience[R].World Bank,2003.
7 2007年6月6-8日,在北京大学召开的由中国财政部、教育部和世界银行主办的“后义务教育财政问题”高层研讨会中,回答学者提问时阐述此观点
8 Wellford W.Wilms,Richard W.Moore,Roger E.Bolus.Whose Fault is Default? A Study of the Impact of Student Characteristics and Institutional Practices on Guaranteed Student Loan Default Rates in California[J].Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis,1987(1):41-54.
1 Laura Greene and Terry Seaks.An Analysis of the Probability of Default on Federally Guaranteed Student Loans[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1992(3):.404-411.
2 Texas Guaranteed Student Loan Corporation.Student Loan Defaults in Texas Yesterday,Today,and Tomorrow[R],1998
3 Default Prevention and Management U.S.Department of Education.Direct Loan and Federal Family Education Loan Programs:Institutional Default Rate Comparison of FY 2003,2004,and 2005 Cohort Default Rates.September 10,2007.[EB/OL].http://www.ed.gov/offices/QSFAP/defaultmanagement/cdr.html 2007-09-11(根据美国教育部 2007年9月10日公布的学生贷款违约数据整理)
1 Jandhyala N.G.Tilak & N.V.Varghese.Financing Higher Education in India,Higher Education[J].Kluwer Academic Publishers.1991(21):83-101;Thomas A.Flint.Predicting Student Loan Defaults[J].Journal of Higher Education,1997(3):322-354;Jon S.Hesseldenz and David H.Stockham.National Direct Student Loan Defaulters:The Ability to Repay[J].Research in Higher Education,1982(1):3-14.
2 Sandy Baum,Diane Saunders.Life after Debt:Results of the National Student Loan Survey(Final Report)[R].Nellie Mae,February,1998;Laura Greene.An Economic Analysis of Student Loan Default[J].Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis,1989(1):61-68;Sandra Barone.Multivariate Analysis of Student Loan Defaulters at Prairie View A&M University.December[M],2006.Austin,TX.
3 Elizabeth Herr and Larry Burt.Predicting Student Loan Default for the University of Texas at Austin[J].NASFAA Journal of Student Financial Aid,2004(2):27-49;Jennie H.Woo.Clearing Accounts:The Causes of Student Loan Default,EDFUND,2002;Thomas A.Flint.Predicting Student Loan Defaults[J].Journal of Higher Education,1997(3):322-354;Jon S.Hesseldenz and David H.Stockham.National Direct Student Loan Defaulters:The Ability to Repay[J].Research in Higher Education,1982(1):3-14.
4 Laura Greene and Terry Scaks.An Analysis of the Probability of Default on Federally Guaranteed Student Loans[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1992(3):.404-411
1 Michael Podgursky,Mark Ehlert,Ryan Monroe and Donald Watson.Student Loan Defaults and Enrollment Persistence,2000;Charles F.Seifert and Lorenz Worden.Two Studies Assessing the Effectiveness of Early Intervention on the Default Behavior of Student Loan Borrowers.NASFAA Journal of Student Financial Aid,2004(3):41-52.
2 Fredericks Volkwein and Bruce Szelest.Individual and Campus Characteristics Associated with Student Loan Default [J].Research in Higher Education,1995(1):41-72;Elizabeth Herr and Larry Burt.Predicting Student Loan Default for the University of Texas at Austin[J].NASFAA Journal of Student Financial Aid,2004(2):27-49;Lance Lochner,Alexander Monge-Naranjo.Education and Default Incentives with Government Student Loan Programs.2003.[EB/OL].www.econ.ku.dk/cam/workshops/Education%20Wages/gs120_Lance.pdf 2008-02-08
3 Thomas A.Flint.Predicting Student Loan Defaults[J].Journal of Higher Education,1997(3):322-354.
4 Matt Steiner and Natali Teszler.The Characteristics Associated with Student Loan Default at Texas A&M University [M].January 2003.Austin,TX.
5 Michael Podgursky,Mark Ehlert,Ryan Monroe and Donald Watson.Student Loan Defaults and Enrollment Persistence,2000.
6 David H.Stockham and Jon S.Hesseldenz.Predicting National Direct Student Loan Defaults:The Role of Personality Data[J].Research in Higher Education,1979(3):195-205.
7 Elizabeth Herr and Larry Burt.Predicting Student Loan Default for the University of Texas at Austin[J].NASFAA Journal of Student Financial Aid,2004(2):27-49.
8 David H.Stockham and Jon S.Hesseldenz.Predicting National Direct Student Loan Defaults:The Role of Personality Data[J].Research in Higher Education,1979(3):195-205.
1 Saul Schwartz.The Dark Side of Student Loans:Debt Burden,Default,and Bankruptcy[J].Osgoode Hall Law Journal,1999(1):307-338.
2Bruce Johnstone.Higher Educational Accessibility and Financial Viability:The Role of Student Loans.This paper was prepared for the World Report on Higher Education:The Financing of Universities Ⅱ International Barcelona Conference on Higher Education,Global University Network for Innovation(GUNI) Barcelona,Spain,May 24-25 and November 28-30,2005.
3 Nicholas Barr.Financing Higher Education:Lessons from Developed Economies,Options for Developing Economies.Paper to be presented at World Bank:Regional Bank Conference on Development Economics Beijing 16-17 January 2007.
4 Anna Kim and Young Lee.Student Loan Schemes in the Republic of Korea:Review and recommendations[M].Thailand Bangkok:UNESCO/IIEP,2003.
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[10]广西自治区省统计局.广西统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[11]贵州省统计局.贵州统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[12]海南省统计局.海南统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[13]河北省统计局.河北统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[14]河南省统计局.河南统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[15]黑龙江省统计局.黑龙江统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[16]湖北省统计局.湖北统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[17]湖南省统计局.湖南统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[18]吉林省统计局.吉林统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[19]江苏省统计局.江苏统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[20]江西省统计局.江西统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[21]辽宁省统计局.辽宁统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[22]内蒙古自治区省统计局.内蒙古统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[23]宁夏自治区省统计局.宁夏统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[24]青海省统计局.青海统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[25]山东省统计局.山东统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[26]山西省统计局.山西统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[27]陕西省统计局.陕西统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[28]上海市统计局.上海统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[29]四川省统计局.四川统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[30]天津市统计局.天津统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[31]西藏自治区统计局.西藏统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[32]新疆自治区统计局.新疆统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[33]云南省统计局.云南统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[34]浙江省统计局.浙江统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[35]重庆市统计局.重庆统计年鉴-2007,北京:中国统计出版社,2007..
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