中国资源型海外投资的政治风险研究
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摘要
资源型海外投资是中国历年来海外投资中占比居高不下的一类投资,多桩海外投资创出巨量交易额。中国处于快速发展、资源消耗加速和政府加快储备战略资源的阶段,资源型海外投资在面对东道国政府和社会时,更容易引发东道国的担忧和遭遇来自政府的保护主义而面临更大的政治风险。因此,本文的选题对当前中国加快推进企业“走出去”具有重要的意义。
海外投资理论研究中,以区位选择和投资风险管理为研究对象的投资风险影响分析和关注政策制定的投资行为研究已成为研究政治风险和海外投资之间关系的两个重要方向。这两类研究及其背后的理论支撑是相互补充的和渗透的关系。然而,这两类研究只关注了政治风险研究的一个侧面——共性政治风险评估或特殊行为／策略分析；同时在独立的研究路径中,对于将东道国——海外投资企业——母国三方共同纳入海外投资研究体系的整体视角也缺乏足够的关注,因此目前仍无法把握在海外投资过程中上述三方主体是如何相互作用来影响政治风险的生成和演化机制的。因此,本文整合了上述两条研究思路的核心思想,在详细界定政治风险的内涵基础上,对制度视角下的共性政治风险和行为视角下的特殊政治风险的交互关系和影响机制进行了一系列的研究。
研究一,根据上述两条研究思路的内在联系,将其整合为统一的研究体系,更完整地刻画政治风险的生成和演变机理。由于动态行为分析依赖主体间互动,本研究将海外投资的三方主体纳入统一的分析框架,借此发现当政治风险存在时政治行为分析的规则以及各主体在投资谈判中的决策。结论揭示了一类研究猜想——中国企业海外投资偏好制度不发达或政治风险较高的资源丰富的国家——背后的机理,即中国资源型海外投资受到东道国政府行为偏好和母国投资政策工具的影响,而接下来的实证也支持了该结论。
研究二,承接了研究一的风险框架.以政府为行为主体的东道国政府治理水平作为共性政治风险的代理变量,来探讨共性政治风险和特殊政治风险——母国政策行为对企业海外投资区位选择和并购成功率的影响机制。本研究整合了包括东道国——海外投资企业——母国三方主体互动的风险研究框架,以并购交易为研究对象,研究并购案例的区位选择及并购的成功率,在控制了海外投资中企业市场行为的基础上,分析共性政治风险和母国政策行为对企业并购成功率的具体作用。实证结果表明,东道国政府的社会治理水平越高,就会有越多的海外投资进入该国；同时也会获得较高的投资成功率。同时母国政策行为会引导海外投资的区位选择并提高投资成功率。
研究三,利用一个包含政治制度风险、双边政治关系和资源属性的三维评估体系在前两个研究的基础上进一步完善了政治风险研究框架。本研究首先融合制度质量和制度距离的独立研究,结合东道国政治制度质量和东道国与母国间相对政治关系对投资风险和谈判的影响,共同解释海外投资政治风险的生成与表现；其次针对海外投资标的的属性(如文中石油企业的特定资源风险),利用具有母国政策背景和资源属性背景的国家战略投资来刻画资源风险的形成和分散机理,综合共性风险和特殊风险并存时的多重风险生成途径,并据此构建石油企业海外投资政治风险的评估和预测。本研究在共性风险、特殊风险和资源属性的政治风险框架下,更深入地探讨母国政策行为和双边政治关系对海外投资的不同影响路径并进行合理性的验证,对前两个研究是一个有益的完善,同时也为研究四提供了具体政治风险分析的依据。
研究四,延续前三个研究对国内外环境及资源型海外投资为重点的风险分析框架,本研究通过中海油和中铝集团投资案例探索中国资源型海外投资政治风险特别是投资谈判阶段的政治风险管理策略,并进一步对中国资源型海外投资在经营阶段发生的重大政治事件进行梳理和总结分析。本研究指出,资源型海外投资需从共性政治风险和特殊政治风险两个方面进行风险评估和管控,同时在投资的谈判和经营阶段,政治风险在不同收入水平的国家存在一定的替代关系。结论突出了目标资源、东道国政府、外部利益集团和谈判策略对海外投资成败的关键作用,为海外投资政治风险管控策略提供了现实的经验借鉴。
Resource-based Chinese outward foreign direct investments (OFDI) have occupied large share of total OFDI amount in the past years, many of them have hit a huge trading volume. Because China is in the rapid development stage, the acceleration of demands and governments'action on reserving strategic resources worsen the contradiction between China and host countries, which may suffer from the protectionist policies and lead to greater political risk. Therefore, the topic of this paper is important for Chinese government to speed up the OFDIs from local companies.
Researches on the relationship between political risk and OFDI have focused on two directions:political risk analysis on location choice and investment behavior on policy-making process. Insights and theoretical background of both directions are complementary and supportive. However, each of them follows closely with only one facet of political risk study-systematic risk assessment or special behavior/strategy analysis, while integrating characteristics of receiving and investing parties are not included in either comprehensive approach yet. Further, perspective included host country, multinational corporations (MNCs), and home country also lacks evidence to prove how the interactions among the three parties influence the generation and change of political risk. Therefore, this thesis first defined political risk used as follow based on the two directions above, and then by investigating the interactions between systematic political risk based on view of institutions and special political risk based on view of behavior, sequentially developing several studies below:
Study1modeled the decision-making process of three OFDI parties given simultaneous existence of systematic and special political risk. Established on a two-country model with un-equivalent natural resource distribution, the author introduced mean-variance expected utility and common agent method to characterize preference of investor and both governments, respectively. This study found that, not only political risk aroused by institutional environment couid influence OFDI, but the preference of host government (such as political contributions) might change the path of political risk; therefore, policy tools about investment compensation used by home country/government could effectively improve the possibility of successful investment.
Following the fundamental work of study1, study2took the quality of public governance by host government as a measure of political risk to analyze how political risk of host country and policy tools of home country interactively influenced the location choice and success rate of MNCs. Based on integrated view of three parties and data of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) deals, this study controlled market behavior of MNCs for better understanding the impact of political risk and policy tools on success rate of Chinese M&As. The evidence identified main results in study1. As lower political risk in the host country, especially higher quality of good governance, more OFD1would flow in, as well as higher investment success rate. Meanwhile, policy tools of home country would affect location choices and enhance investment success rate.
After theoretical demonstration and empirical analysis, main object of study3is to make explicit utility of the risk analysis framework above. This study integrated political institutions, binary political relations, and specific resource properties to demonstrate the structure and performance of political risk. Study3first combined individual studies of institutional quality and distance with measures of political institution and bilateral political relations, respectively, to constitute formulation and performance of country risk. Second, focusing on special risk of investment mark (such as oil-related resource risk). the author introduced national strategic investment (e.g.. Chinese Economic corporation investment). referring to its policy and resource-based background, to describe the formuianon and dispersis meananism o(?)efic risK. Based on (?). a reasonable assessment and prediction system of OFD1political risk for Chinese oil-related corporations.
In study4the author carm(?) ased on (?) esper(?). China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and Aluminum Corporation of China (CHINALCO) to investigate political risk management strategies. Further, important political events happened in after-negotiation poriod are discussed. The study argued that managers should assess and manage political risk of resource-based OFDI from systematic political risk and special political risk. Results highlighted that objective resource, host government, external stakeholders, and negotiating strategy played key role in OFDIs, which lent MNC managers and policy makers some empirical insight for future practice.
海外投资理论研究中,以区位选择和投资风险管理为研究对象的投资风险影响分析和关注政策制定的投资行为研究已成为研究政治风险和海外投资之间关系的两个重要方向。这两类研究及其背后的理论支撑是相互补充的和渗透的关系。然而,这两类研究只关注了政治风险研究的一个侧面——共性政治风险评估或特殊行为／策略分析；同时在独立的研究路径中,对于将东道国——海外投资企业——母国三方共同纳入海外投资研究体系的整体视角也缺乏足够的关注,因此目前仍无法把握在海外投资过程中上述三方主体是如何相互作用来影响政治风险的生成和演化机制的。因此,本文整合了上述两条研究思路的核心思想,在详细界定政治风险的内涵基础上,对制度视角下的共性政治风险和行为视角下的特殊政治风险的交互关系和影响机制进行了一系列的研究。
研究一,根据上述两条研究思路的内在联系,将其整合为统一的研究体系,更完整地刻画政治风险的生成和演变机理。由于动态行为分析依赖主体间互动,本研究将海外投资的三方主体纳入统一的分析框架,借此发现当政治风险存在时政治行为分析的规则以及各主体在投资谈判中的决策。结论揭示了一类研究猜想——中国企业海外投资偏好制度不发达或政治风险较高的资源丰富的国家——背后的机理,即中国资源型海外投资受到东道国政府行为偏好和母国投资政策工具的影响,而接下来的实证也支持了该结论。
研究二,承接了研究一的风险框架.以政府为行为主体的东道国政府治理水平作为共性政治风险的代理变量,来探讨共性政治风险和特殊政治风险——母国政策行为对企业海外投资区位选择和并购成功率的影响机制。本研究整合了包括东道国——海外投资企业——母国三方主体互动的风险研究框架,以并购交易为研究对象,研究并购案例的区位选择及并购的成功率,在控制了海外投资中企业市场行为的基础上,分析共性政治风险和母国政策行为对企业并购成功率的具体作用。实证结果表明,东道国政府的社会治理水平越高,就会有越多的海外投资进入该国；同时也会获得较高的投资成功率。同时母国政策行为会引导海外投资的区位选择并提高投资成功率。
研究三,利用一个包含政治制度风险、双边政治关系和资源属性的三维评估体系在前两个研究的基础上进一步完善了政治风险研究框架。本研究首先融合制度质量和制度距离的独立研究,结合东道国政治制度质量和东道国与母国间相对政治关系对投资风险和谈判的影响,共同解释海外投资政治风险的生成与表现；其次针对海外投资标的的属性(如文中石油企业的特定资源风险),利用具有母国政策背景和资源属性背景的国家战略投资来刻画资源风险的形成和分散机理,综合共性风险和特殊风险并存时的多重风险生成途径,并据此构建石油企业海外投资政治风险的评估和预测。本研究在共性风险、特殊风险和资源属性的政治风险框架下,更深入地探讨母国政策行为和双边政治关系对海外投资的不同影响路径并进行合理性的验证,对前两个研究是一个有益的完善,同时也为研究四提供了具体政治风险分析的依据。
研究四,延续前三个研究对国内外环境及资源型海外投资为重点的风险分析框架,本研究通过中海油和中铝集团投资案例探索中国资源型海外投资政治风险特别是投资谈判阶段的政治风险管理策略,并进一步对中国资源型海外投资在经营阶段发生的重大政治事件进行梳理和总结分析。本研究指出,资源型海外投资需从共性政治风险和特殊政治风险两个方面进行风险评估和管控,同时在投资的谈判和经营阶段,政治风险在不同收入水平的国家存在一定的替代关系。结论突出了目标资源、东道国政府、外部利益集团和谈判策略对海外投资成败的关键作用,为海外投资政治风险管控策略提供了现实的经验借鉴。
Resource-based Chinese outward foreign direct investments (OFDI) have occupied large share of total OFDI amount in the past years, many of them have hit a huge trading volume. Because China is in the rapid development stage, the acceleration of demands and governments'action on reserving strategic resources worsen the contradiction between China and host countries, which may suffer from the protectionist policies and lead to greater political risk. Therefore, the topic of this paper is important for Chinese government to speed up the OFDIs from local companies.
Researches on the relationship between political risk and OFDI have focused on two directions:political risk analysis on location choice and investment behavior on policy-making process. Insights and theoretical background of both directions are complementary and supportive. However, each of them follows closely with only one facet of political risk study-systematic risk assessment or special behavior/strategy analysis, while integrating characteristics of receiving and investing parties are not included in either comprehensive approach yet. Further, perspective included host country, multinational corporations (MNCs), and home country also lacks evidence to prove how the interactions among the three parties influence the generation and change of political risk. Therefore, this thesis first defined political risk used as follow based on the two directions above, and then by investigating the interactions between systematic political risk based on view of institutions and special political risk based on view of behavior, sequentially developing several studies below:
Study1modeled the decision-making process of three OFDI parties given simultaneous existence of systematic and special political risk. Established on a two-country model with un-equivalent natural resource distribution, the author introduced mean-variance expected utility and common agent method to characterize preference of investor and both governments, respectively. This study found that, not only political risk aroused by institutional environment couid influence OFDI, but the preference of host government (such as political contributions) might change the path of political risk; therefore, policy tools about investment compensation used by home country/government could effectively improve the possibility of successful investment.
Following the fundamental work of study1, study2took the quality of public governance by host government as a measure of political risk to analyze how political risk of host country and policy tools of home country interactively influenced the location choice and success rate of MNCs. Based on integrated view of three parties and data of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) deals, this study controlled market behavior of MNCs for better understanding the impact of political risk and policy tools on success rate of Chinese M&As. The evidence identified main results in study1. As lower political risk in the host country, especially higher quality of good governance, more OFD1would flow in, as well as higher investment success rate. Meanwhile, policy tools of home country would affect location choices and enhance investment success rate.
After theoretical demonstration and empirical analysis, main object of study3is to make explicit utility of the risk analysis framework above. This study integrated political institutions, binary political relations, and specific resource properties to demonstrate the structure and performance of political risk. Study3first combined individual studies of institutional quality and distance with measures of political institution and bilateral political relations, respectively, to constitute formulation and performance of country risk. Second, focusing on special risk of investment mark (such as oil-related resource risk). the author introduced national strategic investment (e.g.. Chinese Economic corporation investment). referring to its policy and resource-based background, to describe the formuianon and dispersis meananism o(?)efic risK. Based on (?). a reasonable assessment and prediction system of OFD1political risk for Chinese oil-related corporations.
In study4the author carm(?) ased on (?) esper(?). China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and Aluminum Corporation of China (CHINALCO) to investigate political risk management strategies. Further, important political events happened in after-negotiation poriod are discussed. The study argued that managers should assess and manage political risk of resource-based OFDI from systematic political risk and special political risk. Results highlighted that objective resource, host government, external stakeholders, and negotiating strategy played key role in OFDIs, which lent MNC managers and policy makers some empirical insight for future practice.
引文
17参见周明剑、王铮：《中国大收购》,石油工业出版社,2009年,p.64。
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