金融危机时期中国燃油税征收的动态一般均衡分析与政策优化
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摘要
随着时代的不断发展,改革的步伐不断加快,燃油税已经超出一般商品消费税框架,同时肩负了“费改税”、理顺成品油价格、能源税、环境税等多方面内涵。每种内涵意味着背后都存在一群利益团体,因此燃油税的设计无疑将成为一个非常棘手又非常重要的问题。对比国外成熟的燃油税政策,我国当前的燃油税制度安排处于试行阶段,相关配套措施还未完善,具有进一步优化的空间。由于燃油税的丰富内涵,论文从科学发展观的角度出发,基于经济-能源-环境-汽车运输的动态一般均衡分析视角,构建了燃油税的动态CGE模型进行定量研究。
燃油税的动态CGE模型以MCHUGE模型为原型,引入了能源产品的替代关系、交通运输部门的替代关系,细化了家庭的能源消费行为和交通运输行为,构建了包含9种不同污染物的排放方程,刻画了石油部门和汽车制造业部门的垄断特性,构建了反映汽车流量、存量与燃油消耗的汽车-燃油模块,纳入了福利分析模块,考虑了从价税与从量税的模拟方程,构建了基于宏观经济、能源结果和环境结果的分析评估模块。数据库方面,论文在MCHUGE模型的基础上,根据研究需要合并和拆分BASEDATA数据库,增加了EEDATA数据库和CARFUELDATA数据库,构建了燃油税CGE模型的基础数据库。动态模拟基线方面,论文重新调整了2005-2007的历史模拟值,详细刻画了能源、汽车以及交通运输的历史模拟基线。同时,根据金融危机对中国经济以及汽车产业的潜在损害,以及“汽车产业振兴计划”对中国汽车产业发展的动态影响,结合已有的2008年和2009年上半年的统计数据,以及相关的预测研究报告,设计了金融危机时期中国宏观经济的发展轨迹以及汽车销售的变化轨迹。
运用该模型,论文系统评估当前燃油税政策,并从燃油税的征税环节、税率、以及双重红利效果出发,讨论潜在的优化空间。
当前成品油价格形成机制扭曲了燃油价格,放大了燃油税对经济影响。同时,在一般均衡条件下,政府税收总额增量要小于拟征燃油税税额,其中燃油税转嫁比例大于40%。燃油税加剧了物价上涨,对经济增长和居民福利短期有较大损害,长期略有减缓,如充分考虑能源品的替代性,损害程度相比减少;高中能耗产业产出相比降幅较大,而充分考虑能源产品替代性时,能源产业产出下降相对明显。节能方面,受规模效应和产业结构调整的影响,燃油税带动了单位GDP能耗下降,长期效果更为显著,如充分考虑能源产品替代性,能源产品的替代效应部分抵消了节能效果。减排方面,受产出规模和产业结构调整的影响,各种污染物均有显著的下降,但如充分考虑能源产品替代性,污染排放结构出现了较大的差异性,其中CO2和SO2排放反而上升。分车型汽车需求方面,M1L类和N2类汽车需求下滑最快,N3类汽车需求相比有所上升,其他车型需求略微下降。具体到分燃料类型,汽油车销量降幅将更显著。
相比当前成品油价格机制,理顺成品油价格机制会减缓金融危机对经济的损害。燃油税转嫁比例相比较小,实际GDP和居民福利均有所上升,物价指数略微上升,节能和环保效果更好。进一步对比燃油税在生产环节(含进口环节)、批发环节以及零售环节的征收效果,无论是经济增长方面,产业结构、节能减排以及分车型需求变化,批发环节的政策效果处于生产环节(含进口环节)和零售环节之间,但如果考虑到广税基原则、最小征收费用原则以及未来的能源税发展方向,批发环节的综合效应相对最优。在燃油税率的比较研究中发现,如考虑能源产品之间的替代性以及家庭运输的替代性,燃油税率的同比提高对经济、能源、环境、汽车销售的影响呈非线性关系,即二次导数不等于0。总体而言,进一步提高燃油税率,经济增长、节能减排效果将产生累退效应。燃油税率的双重红利研究中发现,当新增税收完全补贴给要素收入,减少要素市场扭曲时,第一重红利和第二重红利的效果均非常显著。动态来看,长期的双重红利效果要显著小于短期红利效果,尤其是在节能方面。
最后,论文指出当前的燃油税政策具有广阔的优化的空间,如进一步理顺成品油价格外,考虑批发环节,税率的进一步提高,以实现双重红利的效果等。
With the rapid development of China economy and accelerating the tax reform, the signification of fuel tax as commodity tax in China is not only the substitution of the road toll, but also the reform of refined oil prices, energy taxes and environmental taxes. Every meaning represents a kind of interest groups, so the design of fuel tax undoubtedly becomes a very difficult and important issue. Compared with foreign fuel tax policy, the system of fuel tax in China isn’t so mature that there are some points need to be optimized. At this point and with the view of the science outlook of development, this paper build a dynamic CGE model of the fuel tax to analyze the fuel tax shock in China and discuss the potential optimization. The evaluation target includes the economy effect, energy effect, environment effect and the auto transport effect.
The dynamic CGE model of fuel tax is based on MCHUGE model. The paper builds the energy substitution module where considering the substitution relationship among 13 kinds of energy products and 3 kinds of primary factors in produce process, the transports substitution module, the households consumption module with the substitution of energy goods and the substitution of households’transport, the pollution modules containing 9 kinds of pollutant emissions, the imperfect competition modules in the oil sector and automotive manufacturing sector, the auto-fuel module including the equations of sales and inventory of different kinds of autos, and the fuel consumption, the welfare analysis module, the ad valorem tax and the unit tax simulation equations, and the module of analysis in macro-economic, energy and environment. This paper also builds the database of dynamic CGE model of fuel tax correspondingly. Based on the BASEDATA in MCHUGE model, I spit and merge some sectors according to research requirement, and add the new database of EEDATA and CARFUELDATA. This paper readjusts the historical baseline from 2005 to 2007, and characterizes the historical baseline of energy industry, automobile industry and transportation from 1997-2007. Meanwhile, after simulating the potential damage of financial crisis on China’s economy and automobile industry, as well as the dynamic effects of“Automobile Industry Promotion Plan”, and combining the statistical date of year 2008 and the first half year of 2009, as well as some forecast data from the authority institution, the paper designs the forecast baseline of China’s macro economy and the track of the changes in vehicle sales during the financial crisis from 2009 to 2015.
Using this model, the paper discusses the current fuel tax, and the potential optimization project, such as tax stage, tax rates as well as the double dividend effect.
Currently refined oil pricing mechanism distorts fuel price, and amplifies the economy impact of fuel duty. Meanwhile, in the general equilibrium conditions, the total amount of government revenue less than the fuel tax which will be levied, where the shifted proportion of the fuel tax is greater than 40%. In the simulation, the price of output increases, and the significant damage to economic growth and resident welfare in the short-term. And the long-term effect will slow down. While taking consideration substitution among energy products, the damage decreases significantly. In the view of the industry structure, the output in high energy-intensive industries falls largely, and that of energy industry decrease as fully consideration of substitution among energy products. In the view of energy saving, fuel tax drives the decrease in unit GDP energy consumption by the scale effect and the industrial structure adjustment, particularly in the long-term; however, the substitution effects of energy products offset part of energy saving effects. In the view of pollutant emission, various pollutants decrease significantly by the effect of scale and the industrial structure adjustment, but the pollution emission structure is large differences, where CO2 and SO2 emissions rise contrarily. In the view of demand in motor vehicle, the types of M1L and N2 decline, the type of N3 increases, and the other types slightly decease. The results also show that the sales of gasoline car fall obviously.
Compared with the current refined oil pricing mechanism, the pricing mechanism of refined oil decided by market will reduce the economic loss. The shifted proportion of the fuel tax less, and the real GDP and the civilians' welfare increase. Besides, the price of output slightly increases. In sum, the effect of energy conservation and environmental protection perform better. Further comparing with the fuel tax levying in production stage (including import), wholesale stage and retail stage, the policy effects of levying in wholesale stage, such as the economic growth, industrial structure, energy saving, emission reduction and the sales of autos, are between production stage and retail sale stage. However, if taking principle of large tax base, principle of minimum cost and the development direction of energy tax in the future into account, levying in wholesale stage rank first. On the comparative analysis of different fuel tax rates, if considering the substitution of energy products, the relationship between the extent of fuel tax rate and the impacts on economy, energy, environment and motor vehicle sales are non-linear, that is the second derivative doesn’t equal zero. Generally speaking, a further increase in fuel tax rate will has a regressive effect on both economic growth and energy saving and emission reduction. Based on the results of researching double dividend effects of fuel tax, this paper finds that when the additional tax revenue was subsidized to factors income where lessening distortion in the factor market, the effects of both dividends are highly significant. In the dynamic view, the long-term double dividend effect is significantly smaller than the short-term one, especially in energy-saving aspect.
Finally, the paper points out that the current fuel tax policies have a broad space for optimization, such as further reforming in the refined oil pricing mechanism, levying in the wholesale stage, increasing the fuel tax rates to achieve the effect of double dividend.
燃油税的动态CGE模型以MCHUGE模型为原型,引入了能源产品的替代关系、交通运输部门的替代关系,细化了家庭的能源消费行为和交通运输行为,构建了包含9种不同污染物的排放方程,刻画了石油部门和汽车制造业部门的垄断特性,构建了反映汽车流量、存量与燃油消耗的汽车-燃油模块,纳入了福利分析模块,考虑了从价税与从量税的模拟方程,构建了基于宏观经济、能源结果和环境结果的分析评估模块。数据库方面,论文在MCHUGE模型的基础上,根据研究需要合并和拆分BASEDATA数据库,增加了EEDATA数据库和CARFUELDATA数据库,构建了燃油税CGE模型的基础数据库。动态模拟基线方面,论文重新调整了2005-2007的历史模拟值,详细刻画了能源、汽车以及交通运输的历史模拟基线。同时,根据金融危机对中国经济以及汽车产业的潜在损害,以及“汽车产业振兴计划”对中国汽车产业发展的动态影响,结合已有的2008年和2009年上半年的统计数据,以及相关的预测研究报告,设计了金融危机时期中国宏观经济的发展轨迹以及汽车销售的变化轨迹。
运用该模型,论文系统评估当前燃油税政策,并从燃油税的征税环节、税率、以及双重红利效果出发,讨论潜在的优化空间。
当前成品油价格形成机制扭曲了燃油价格,放大了燃油税对经济影响。同时,在一般均衡条件下,政府税收总额增量要小于拟征燃油税税额,其中燃油税转嫁比例大于40%。燃油税加剧了物价上涨,对经济增长和居民福利短期有较大损害,长期略有减缓,如充分考虑能源品的替代性,损害程度相比减少;高中能耗产业产出相比降幅较大,而充分考虑能源产品替代性时,能源产业产出下降相对明显。节能方面,受规模效应和产业结构调整的影响,燃油税带动了单位GDP能耗下降,长期效果更为显著,如充分考虑能源产品替代性,能源产品的替代效应部分抵消了节能效果。减排方面,受产出规模和产业结构调整的影响,各种污染物均有显著的下降,但如充分考虑能源产品替代性,污染排放结构出现了较大的差异性,其中CO2和SO2排放反而上升。分车型汽车需求方面,M1L类和N2类汽车需求下滑最快,N3类汽车需求相比有所上升,其他车型需求略微下降。具体到分燃料类型,汽油车销量降幅将更显著。
相比当前成品油价格机制,理顺成品油价格机制会减缓金融危机对经济的损害。燃油税转嫁比例相比较小,实际GDP和居民福利均有所上升,物价指数略微上升,节能和环保效果更好。进一步对比燃油税在生产环节(含进口环节)、批发环节以及零售环节的征收效果,无论是经济增长方面,产业结构、节能减排以及分车型需求变化,批发环节的政策效果处于生产环节(含进口环节)和零售环节之间,但如果考虑到广税基原则、最小征收费用原则以及未来的能源税发展方向,批发环节的综合效应相对最优。在燃油税率的比较研究中发现,如考虑能源产品之间的替代性以及家庭运输的替代性,燃油税率的同比提高对经济、能源、环境、汽车销售的影响呈非线性关系,即二次导数不等于0。总体而言,进一步提高燃油税率,经济增长、节能减排效果将产生累退效应。燃油税率的双重红利研究中发现,当新增税收完全补贴给要素收入,减少要素市场扭曲时,第一重红利和第二重红利的效果均非常显著。动态来看,长期的双重红利效果要显著小于短期红利效果,尤其是在节能方面。
最后,论文指出当前的燃油税政策具有广阔的优化的空间,如进一步理顺成品油价格外,考虑批发环节,税率的进一步提高,以实现双重红利的效果等。
With the rapid development of China economy and accelerating the tax reform, the signification of fuel tax as commodity tax in China is not only the substitution of the road toll, but also the reform of refined oil prices, energy taxes and environmental taxes. Every meaning represents a kind of interest groups, so the design of fuel tax undoubtedly becomes a very difficult and important issue. Compared with foreign fuel tax policy, the system of fuel tax in China isn’t so mature that there are some points need to be optimized. At this point and with the view of the science outlook of development, this paper build a dynamic CGE model of the fuel tax to analyze the fuel tax shock in China and discuss the potential optimization. The evaluation target includes the economy effect, energy effect, environment effect and the auto transport effect.
The dynamic CGE model of fuel tax is based on MCHUGE model. The paper builds the energy substitution module where considering the substitution relationship among 13 kinds of energy products and 3 kinds of primary factors in produce process, the transports substitution module, the households consumption module with the substitution of energy goods and the substitution of households’transport, the pollution modules containing 9 kinds of pollutant emissions, the imperfect competition modules in the oil sector and automotive manufacturing sector, the auto-fuel module including the equations of sales and inventory of different kinds of autos, and the fuel consumption, the welfare analysis module, the ad valorem tax and the unit tax simulation equations, and the module of analysis in macro-economic, energy and environment. This paper also builds the database of dynamic CGE model of fuel tax correspondingly. Based on the BASEDATA in MCHUGE model, I spit and merge some sectors according to research requirement, and add the new database of EEDATA and CARFUELDATA. This paper readjusts the historical baseline from 2005 to 2007, and characterizes the historical baseline of energy industry, automobile industry and transportation from 1997-2007. Meanwhile, after simulating the potential damage of financial crisis on China’s economy and automobile industry, as well as the dynamic effects of“Automobile Industry Promotion Plan”, and combining the statistical date of year 2008 and the first half year of 2009, as well as some forecast data from the authority institution, the paper designs the forecast baseline of China’s macro economy and the track of the changes in vehicle sales during the financial crisis from 2009 to 2015.
Using this model, the paper discusses the current fuel tax, and the potential optimization project, such as tax stage, tax rates as well as the double dividend effect.
Currently refined oil pricing mechanism distorts fuel price, and amplifies the economy impact of fuel duty. Meanwhile, in the general equilibrium conditions, the total amount of government revenue less than the fuel tax which will be levied, where the shifted proportion of the fuel tax is greater than 40%. In the simulation, the price of output increases, and the significant damage to economic growth and resident welfare in the short-term. And the long-term effect will slow down. While taking consideration substitution among energy products, the damage decreases significantly. In the view of the industry structure, the output in high energy-intensive industries falls largely, and that of energy industry decrease as fully consideration of substitution among energy products. In the view of energy saving, fuel tax drives the decrease in unit GDP energy consumption by the scale effect and the industrial structure adjustment, particularly in the long-term; however, the substitution effects of energy products offset part of energy saving effects. In the view of pollutant emission, various pollutants decrease significantly by the effect of scale and the industrial structure adjustment, but the pollution emission structure is large differences, where CO2 and SO2 emissions rise contrarily. In the view of demand in motor vehicle, the types of M1L and N2 decline, the type of N3 increases, and the other types slightly decease. The results also show that the sales of gasoline car fall obviously.
Compared with the current refined oil pricing mechanism, the pricing mechanism of refined oil decided by market will reduce the economic loss. The shifted proportion of the fuel tax less, and the real GDP and the civilians' welfare increase. Besides, the price of output slightly increases. In sum, the effect of energy conservation and environmental protection perform better. Further comparing with the fuel tax levying in production stage (including import), wholesale stage and retail stage, the policy effects of levying in wholesale stage, such as the economic growth, industrial structure, energy saving, emission reduction and the sales of autos, are between production stage and retail sale stage. However, if taking principle of large tax base, principle of minimum cost and the development direction of energy tax in the future into account, levying in wholesale stage rank first. On the comparative analysis of different fuel tax rates, if considering the substitution of energy products, the relationship between the extent of fuel tax rate and the impacts on economy, energy, environment and motor vehicle sales are non-linear, that is the second derivative doesn’t equal zero. Generally speaking, a further increase in fuel tax rate will has a regressive effect on both economic growth and energy saving and emission reduction. Based on the results of researching double dividend effects of fuel tax, this paper finds that when the additional tax revenue was subsidized to factors income where lessening distortion in the factor market, the effects of both dividends are highly significant. In the dynamic view, the long-term double dividend effect is significantly smaller than the short-term one, especially in energy-saving aspect.
Finally, the paper points out that the current fuel tax policies have a broad space for optimization, such as further reforming in the refined oil pricing mechanism, levying in the wholesale stage, increasing the fuel tax rates to achieve the effect of double dividend.
引文
①MARKAL模型是一个自下而上的动态线性最优模型( Kypreos,1996),细分了旅客空运,旅客铁路运输,公共汽车,小汽车,私人卡车,内陆水运,铁路货运以及卡车货运。
①此外,MCHUGE模型还考虑国际收支结构,引入了GNP的概念。
②MCHUGE对GNP进行了很好的刻画。
①静态预期假设下,投资者认为下一期投资税率等于当期投资税率,单位投资成本与单位资本收益随着当期通货膨胀率增长变化。
①CETM模型的两个子模型包括能源部门的局部均衡ETA模型(基于MERGE模型,Manne和Richels, 1996)和一般均衡模型(MACRO模型)。
①这种区分方式至少可以方便研究环境问题,即电力作为清洁能源不会产生如CO2等污染。
②基于终端用户的角度,这个假设还是过于严格,有限的市场问题导致。完全替代会导致产品的边际成本(价格)相互相等。
③GREEN模型的能源产品内替代弹性短期为0.25,中期约为0.5-1.0,长期为2.0。
④Borges and Goulder(1984)指出能源资本的互补的充分条件是能源资本的替代弹性要小于复合能源资本束与劳动力的替代弹性。
①GREEN模型能源产品之间的替代弹性短中长期不同,同时,通过设定旧资本和新资本灵活调整资本和能源之间的替代关系。
②投入产出表的编制方法指出,燃气等主要是指利用煤炭、油、燃气等能源产品生产燃气,或外购液化石油气、天然气等燃气,进行输配、向用户销售燃气的活动。
①通常的弹性估计方法采用Allen partial elasticity of substitution(AES),但Thompeson and Taylor(1995)指出在估计资本和能源之间的替代关系时,Morishima elasticity会更有效。
②校准法的采用在于需要对生产技术或偏好有较多的假设。
①相比煤炭而言,焦炭在产业的最终使用范围并不广(见2002年投入产出表)。因此,本模型设定农业、农产品加工业(除制糖业)以及服务业(除公路运输)均认为不存在替代关系。
①对于农业等完全竞争型产业,垄断利润为0,但这仍不会论文改变模型的机制。
①1997年中国汽车工业总产值占全国工业总产值仅为2.35%,1998年上升到4.11%,其后年份稳定大于4%,最高达到5.87%(2003年)。如果考虑汽车产业的链条效应,其对中国GDP的贡献将更为突出。
①一方面,分行业的分车辆类型的使用数据不可得;另一方面,柴油产品既可作为汽车燃料,也可作为其他动力燃料,采用油品消费倒推估算车辆使用情况也不可行。
②2002年投入产出表显示,汽车作为中间产品,主要投入到汽车制造业(25.94%)、批发和零售贸易业(18.98%)、公共事业(约10%,估计值)、道路交通运输业(5.32%)、信息传输服务业(4.98%)、汽车零部件及配件制造业(3.98%)、环境资源与公共实施管理业(3.51%)。
①内需品的综合价格指数是指用于家庭消费、投资以及政府支出的综合价格指数。
②严格的说,该指数中还包含了土地收益率。但由于模型中土地存量外生不变,因此,该变量对模型结果的影响可以忽略。
①Basedate.har文件包括金额(数量)数据、各种参数、以及一些MAP数据。
①如对于流通成本的决定方程,在不拆分数据库时,共有近9万( 71*2*71*9)多个变量需计算,如合并为49部门,仅需计算4万多个(49*2*49*9),计算成本节约了近一半。
①2005年《中国汽车工业年鉴》仍主要采用GB/T3730.1-1988标准,仅对2004年汽车产销量进行了尝试性划分(M、N类,乘用车与商用车)。这些交叉标准的统计数据为2005年前后的汽车统计数据协调提供了重要的参考依据。
②原有的车型统计分类GB/T3730.1-1988将汽车产品划分为载货汽车(重型、中型、轻型、微型)、客车(大型、中型、轻型、微型)和轿车。
①由于《中国汽车工业统计年鉴》的分车型销量统计数据是指国内产出的销售,并不包括进口量,也没除去出口量,因此该数据并不是中国汽车市场的实际购买量,即估算的报废率并不等于实际报废率。但由于2004年,我国进出口载客汽车(进口-出口)占国产载客汽车比重并不大(4%),因此估计销量的可信度仍较高。
②民用汽车拥有量的统计口径中包括了载货汽车(重型、中型、轻型、微型)、载客汽车(大型、中型、轻型、微型)以及其他汽车。
③罗延发(2007)[136]用汽车拥有量中家庭轿车约占私人中小型载客汽车的60-80%,和本文估算的差异不大。
①2004年,我国进出口载货汽车(进口-出口)占国产载货汽车比重并不大(3%),因此估计销量的可信度仍较高。
②分车型汽车销量数据2004年采用GB/T3730.1-1998标准,2005年后采用GB/T3730.1-2001标准。
①该年实际新增M1数量= M1新增数量+M1报废数量。
①大部分研究的做法是认为出口价格等于国内销售价格。由于进口汽车占国产汽车的比重不大,因此这种假设下,出口价格近似于国内新增车辆的价格。
①2006-2010年期间,大陆交通运输部门和水运部门运输量年均增长率来自于“计划”中货运量与客运量预测增长率的中间值,但航空运输在该计划中并没有体现,故采取假设值。
①IMF在2009年1月的报告中发展中国家的出口(含货物与服务)增长率与2008年10月的报告相比,2009年下调6.5%,2010年下调6.2%。
①尽管内部规模经济和外部规模经济的内涵上有所不同,但从产业的角度看,都表现出产出规模扩大,平均生产成本降低。因此,本文采用外部规模经济来描述中国汽车产业的规模经济。
②某产品的价值量为B,并已征收了税率为t1的销售税,如果要将该税率降低到t2,则对应的Power of tax的变化量应该为(B*t2-B*t1)/[B*(1+t1)]。
①王彧（2006)指出过路过桥费约占货车运输成本的30%左右,
①国内吸收比居民消费多了投资,支出法GDP比国内吸收多了出口,要素收入比支出法GDP少了一项税收收入。
①能源品不作为投资品,即投资效应为0。同时,论文没有考虑到能源产品发生技术进步的情况,即技术效应也为0,因此表5.10均不再列出这两类效应。
①论文没有考虑到污染排放发生技术进步的情况,即技术效应为0,表5.11不再列出这类效应。
①2009年FTX0-PSS模拟场景下高能耗产业下降了-1.1567%, FTX0-PPS模拟场景下降了1.1571%。
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①此外,MCHUGE模型还考虑国际收支结构,引入了GNP的概念。
②MCHUGE对GNP进行了很好的刻画。
①静态预期假设下,投资者认为下一期投资税率等于当期投资税率,单位投资成本与单位资本收益随着当期通货膨胀率增长变化。
①CETM模型的两个子模型包括能源部门的局部均衡ETA模型(基于MERGE模型,Manne和Richels, 1996)和一般均衡模型(MACRO模型)。
①这种区分方式至少可以方便研究环境问题,即电力作为清洁能源不会产生如CO2等污染。
②基于终端用户的角度,这个假设还是过于严格,有限的市场问题导致。完全替代会导致产品的边际成本(价格)相互相等。
③GREEN模型的能源产品内替代弹性短期为0.25,中期约为0.5-1.0,长期为2.0。
④Borges and Goulder(1984)指出能源资本的互补的充分条件是能源资本的替代弹性要小于复合能源资本束与劳动力的替代弹性。
①GREEN模型能源产品之间的替代弹性短中长期不同,同时,通过设定旧资本和新资本灵活调整资本和能源之间的替代关系。
②投入产出表的编制方法指出,燃气等主要是指利用煤炭、油、燃气等能源产品生产燃气,或外购液化石油气、天然气等燃气,进行输配、向用户销售燃气的活动。
①通常的弹性估计方法采用Allen partial elasticity of substitution(AES),但Thompeson and Taylor(1995)指出在估计资本和能源之间的替代关系时,Morishima elasticity会更有效。
②校准法的采用在于需要对生产技术或偏好有较多的假设。
①相比煤炭而言,焦炭在产业的最终使用范围并不广(见2002年投入产出表)。因此,本模型设定农业、农产品加工业(除制糖业)以及服务业(除公路运输)均认为不存在替代关系。
①对于农业等完全竞争型产业,垄断利润为0,但这仍不会论文改变模型的机制。
①1997年中国汽车工业总产值占全国工业总产值仅为2.35%,1998年上升到4.11%,其后年份稳定大于4%,最高达到5.87%(2003年)。如果考虑汽车产业的链条效应,其对中国GDP的贡献将更为突出。
①一方面,分行业的分车辆类型的使用数据不可得;另一方面,柴油产品既可作为汽车燃料,也可作为其他动力燃料,采用油品消费倒推估算车辆使用情况也不可行。
②2002年投入产出表显示,汽车作为中间产品,主要投入到汽车制造业(25.94%)、批发和零售贸易业(18.98%)、公共事业(约10%,估计值)、道路交通运输业(5.32%)、信息传输服务业(4.98%)、汽车零部件及配件制造业(3.98%)、环境资源与公共实施管理业(3.51%)。
①内需品的综合价格指数是指用于家庭消费、投资以及政府支出的综合价格指数。
②严格的说,该指数中还包含了土地收益率。但由于模型中土地存量外生不变,因此,该变量对模型结果的影响可以忽略。
①Basedate.har文件包括金额(数量)数据、各种参数、以及一些MAP数据。
①如对于流通成本的决定方程,在不拆分数据库时,共有近9万( 71*2*71*9)多个变量需计算,如合并为49部门,仅需计算4万多个(49*2*49*9),计算成本节约了近一半。
①2005年《中国汽车工业年鉴》仍主要采用GB/T3730.1-1988标准,仅对2004年汽车产销量进行了尝试性划分(M、N类,乘用车与商用车)。这些交叉标准的统计数据为2005年前后的汽车统计数据协调提供了重要的参考依据。
②原有的车型统计分类GB/T3730.1-1988将汽车产品划分为载货汽车(重型、中型、轻型、微型)、客车(大型、中型、轻型、微型)和轿车。
①由于《中国汽车工业统计年鉴》的分车型销量统计数据是指国内产出的销售,并不包括进口量,也没除去出口量,因此该数据并不是中国汽车市场的实际购买量,即估算的报废率并不等于实际报废率。但由于2004年,我国进出口载客汽车(进口-出口)占国产载客汽车比重并不大(4%),因此估计销量的可信度仍较高。
②民用汽车拥有量的统计口径中包括了载货汽车(重型、中型、轻型、微型)、载客汽车(大型、中型、轻型、微型)以及其他汽车。
③罗延发(2007)[136]用汽车拥有量中家庭轿车约占私人中小型载客汽车的60-80%,和本文估算的差异不大。
①2004年,我国进出口载货汽车(进口-出口)占国产载货汽车比重并不大(3%),因此估计销量的可信度仍较高。
②分车型汽车销量数据2004年采用GB/T3730.1-1998标准,2005年后采用GB/T3730.1-2001标准。
①该年实际新增M1数量= M1新增数量+M1报废数量。
①大部分研究的做法是认为出口价格等于国内销售价格。由于进口汽车占国产汽车的比重不大,因此这种假设下,出口价格近似于国内新增车辆的价格。
①2006-2010年期间,大陆交通运输部门和水运部门运输量年均增长率来自于“计划”中货运量与客运量预测增长率的中间值,但航空运输在该计划中并没有体现,故采取假设值。
①IMF在2009年1月的报告中发展中国家的出口(含货物与服务)增长率与2008年10月的报告相比,2009年下调6.5%,2010年下调6.2%。
①尽管内部规模经济和外部规模经济的内涵上有所不同,但从产业的角度看,都表现出产出规模扩大,平均生产成本降低。因此,本文采用外部规模经济来描述中国汽车产业的规模经济。
②某产品的价值量为B,并已征收了税率为t1的销售税,如果要将该税率降低到t2,则对应的Power of tax的变化量应该为(B*t2-B*t1)/[B*(1+t1)]。
①王彧（2006)指出过路过桥费约占货车运输成本的30%左右,
①国内吸收比居民消费多了投资,支出法GDP比国内吸收多了出口,要素收入比支出法GDP少了一项税收收入。
①能源品不作为投资品,即投资效应为0。同时,论文没有考虑到能源产品发生技术进步的情况,即技术效应也为0,因此表5.10均不再列出这两类效应。
①论文没有考虑到污染排放发生技术进步的情况,即技术效应为0,表5.11不再列出这类效应。
①2009年FTX0-PSS模拟场景下高能耗产业下降了-1.1567%, FTX0-PPS模拟场景下降了1.1571%。
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