城市碳基能源代谢结构分异与演变机理
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摘要
城市部门结构调整引发的碳基能源代谢时空异构性是城市地域系统中矛盾最尖锐的人地关系之一，城市碳基能源代谢结构分异与演变机理分析是因地制宜解决该问题的重要基奠。以“城市产业结构调整如何引发碳基能源代谢变化”这一问题为核心，将城市碳基能源流与人流、经济流耦合叠置，通过界定碳基能源代谢核算范畴与边界来阐释自然系统与社会经济系统的反馈耦合边界；通过分析城市部门碳基能源代谢结构分异来阐释社会经济子系统中人流、经济流与自然子系统中碳基能源流耦合叠置的相互联系特点；通过分析不同空间人流、经济流的碳基能源代谢结构与格局来阐释城市地域系统的人地耦合的空间相关性与分异性；通过分析结构、空间、时间维度碳基能源代谢的驱动机制来阐释城市地域系统人地相互作用的机理。总体上构建碳基能源代谢的结构-格局-过程（碳锥）三维分析框架，借鉴城市空间结构、产业结构、空间分析等方面的计量方法，建立城市碳锥分析模型，以北京市为典型案例，研究人口变化、产业调整引起的城市碳基能源代谢结构分异、空间变化及演变机理，得出以下结论：
（1）基于空间要素流的城市碳基能源代谢分类有助于增加碳排放核算的规范性和可比性。基于地理边界、足迹区和地理边界+的碳基能源代谢核算既能描述生产过程的碳排放，又能刻画产业链过程的碳排放，可进一步增强产业与能源结构调整、消费模式转变所导致的碳排放核算的规范性和可比性，有助于制定更有操作性的碳减排约束政策。不同边界与范畴下的碳基能源代谢核算能描述了不同程度的人地关系紧张程度，三种核算方法从不同层面揭示了城市社会经济发展的碳基能源代谢特点。
（2）城市碳基能源代谢结构-格局-过程分析框架（碳锥概念模型）多层面和多尺度揭示了城市碳基能源代谢的演变特点。通过城市碳基能源代谢结构的进一步分解，突破了仅从部门产值结构进行分析的局限性，突出了对外服务结构和关联网络结构以及空间结构在理解城市碳基能源代谢方面的开放性和复杂性，可在明确碳减排关键部门的基础上能够进一步阐释城市之间的碳减排关联和定位碳减排敏感部门，还能进一步呈现城市碳基能源代谢的地域网络、圈层模式以及空间集聚分散的分异过程，进而多尺度和多层面展示了城市碳基能源代谢的开放性、复杂性和动态性。
（3）城市碳基能源代谢结构-格局-过程集成模型（碳锥分析模型）多维度测度了碳基能源代谢结构，综合阐释了碳基能源代谢演变规律。将人流、经济（产业）流与碳基能源流进行耦合叠置，以及与改进的EIO-LCA模型、空间分析模型进行综合集成而构建的城市碳锥分析模型，可有效整合基于产业的结构分异和基于人口集散的空间分异分析方法，并使其能够对城市碳基代谢进行多维测度，有助于从初始投入结构、最终需求结构、最终产出结构层面综合解释碳基能源代谢演变机制。
（4）北京市部门、对外服务、产业关联的碳基能源代谢结构变化分别具有阶段性-部门性、交替演变性、生产过程与产业异位性的特点。北京市碳基能源代谢总量与强度呈现不同的部门特点，并依工业行业类型及碳排放量而存在位序-规模分布和倒U型分布等分布模式。对外服务碳基能源代谢潜力“退二进三”的产业变化趋向明显，对外服务碳基能源代谢能力呈现行业波动增长的状态，城市对外服务所带来的经济增长效益低于所带来的资源压力与环境影响。碳基能源代谢关联程度高的部门碳排放变化波动大，关联程度低的部门变化相对平稳；高直接碳排部门的隐含碳排放并不一定高，直接碳排放相对较低的部门隐含碳排放可能居高不下。
（5）北京市碳基能源代谢存在明显的圈层结构。空间等级结构整体上表现为核心-外围模式，但网络结构的雏形已经显现，且碳排放中心与人口、经济中心错位，功能地域结构呈现为圈层结构上的斑块化，圈层之间受产业异质性冲击而形成新的代谢类型。各区县根据不同的代谢特点可分为4种碳基能源代谢区域，因地域分工变化而表现出不同的演变规律与地域组合。街区碳基能源代谢的空间增长模式属于人口规模驱动型发展（扩散式1型、集聚式2型），中心区与外围区交接地带可能存在高能耗产业驱动的代谢模式（极化式2型、扩散式2型）。
（6）北京市碳基能源代谢与经济增长存在长期均衡关系，产业投入产出结构从多层面影响碳基能源代谢变化。城市、部门经济发展与其碳基能源代谢变化表现为总体上的直线型与农业、工业部门的倒U型演变态势，但工业分行业的扩张性负脱钩及扩张性耦合则进一步表明经济发展速度总体上要高于碳排放增长速度，进而说明初始要素投入结构、最终消费结构、最终需求结构变化对碳排放增加的比较突出。
本研究的主要贡献为：（1）基于空间要素流视角提出地理边界、足迹区、地理边界+的碳基能源代谢核算方法体系，能够弥补已有研究中基于生产和消费碳排放核算方法中存在的重要缺陷，有助于揭示社会经济发展对资源耗竭与环境变化的影响。（2）城市碳基能源代谢结构的多维分解及其城市碳锥分析模型的构建，以及对城市碳基能源代谢产业结构、空间结构、关联网络结构和时间演变的有效测度，在很大程度上突破了单一产业碳排放结构分析的局限，不仅有助于揭示城市碳基能源代谢的开放性、复杂性和动态性，而且有助于进一步阐释城市、部门经济发展与碳基能源代谢变化的复杂关系，还能为制定因时因地的碳减排约束政策提供理论依据。
Face to the challenge of global climate change and the depletion of natural resources, the study ofcarbon emissions is an important breakthrough. And the industrial restructuring is becoming the key pointfor the low-carbon development in urban area. However, existing empirical results showed that theadjustment of industrial structure does not play an obviously contribution to the carbon emissions reduction.Therefore, there is a doubt on the proposition that whether there is an effect of adjustment of the industrialstructure to promote the development of low-carbon urban area. Urban area is as a high degree of opennessof the system, energy consumption and carbon emission show some new features during the process ofurban factor mobility. Based on the output value structure of the city's economic activities, the externalservice structure, industry association network structure, and the start point of city carbon emissioncalculation, this paper broadens the connotation of industrial structure, build a structure-pattern-process(carbon cone) model of carbon-based energy metabolism to analyze urban carbon emissions factorsconstitution，spatial evolution, and thus to answer which departments and geographical unit should beadjusted, and what means is effect in the low-carbon urban development process.
Focus on the weaknesses research of urban scale carbon emissions accounting, as well as the urbanmetabolism of defects on the socio-economic subsystem of carbon-based energy transfer analysis, based onthe interpretation of the carbon footprint and urban metabolism, this paper interpreted the connotation ofcarbon emissions, defined the scope of its accounting boundary and divided urban complex ecosystemcarbon-based energy four kinds of areas of different metabolic processes accounting object. Studiessuggested that carbon emissions is a group of low-carbon eco-city index system for the measurement of theuse of resources and the environment in the urban social and economic development process. Threeaccounting type revealed the characteristics of carbon emissions. The three combinations cancomprehensively analysis the impact path and law on the development of low-carbon eco-city from theenergy structure adjustment, resident lifestyle changes.
For the openness of the city as well as the complexity of urban carbon emissions, this paper built amodel of structure-pattern-process (carbon cone) for urban carbon-based energy metabolism study. Theindustry is as an important carrier of the Urban Elements stream of carbon-based energy metabolismstudies, not only to analyze the closed cities’ industrial carbon emissions structure, but also to study thepotential and capabilities of carbon-based energy metabolism under the different theories assume and urbanforeign Service, as well as carbon emissions interaction network structure in the different industrial chain.Based on the research of the spatial structure of the spatial distribution and combination, this paper studiedthe spatial structure, spatial differentiation and growth characteristics of carbon emissions from the level,function, growth, structure. Carbon emissions from different departments/space with the improvement ofthe level of economic development showed regularity type or oscillatory dynamic transformation. And thenit analyzed and verified of carbon emissions and economic development relationship from the inverted U-shaped, inverted N-type, inverted L-shaped. Combination of economic growth, industrial restructuring,the geographical division of labor theory, the paper studied the dynamic mechanism of the evolution ofcarbon-based energy metabolism causal contact mechanisms, gathering diffusion mechanism, from thedriving force of economic growth, structural adjustment bonus level of industrial agglomerationadvantages.A case study for Beijing was taken to explore the structural differentiation, spatial variation andevolution mechanism of urban carbon-based energy metabolism. The conclusions are following:
(1) Carbon-based energy metabolism accountings in different border and scope could describedifferent levels of tension for the relationship between human and earth. Three accounting methods revealthe metabolic characteristics for urban social and economic development from different point of view,including accounting in geographic boundaries, accounting in geographic boundaries+and accounting infootprint area. Each accounting method has its own characteristics, of which to be chosen depending on theavailable data and the targeted research objectives, in order to fortify criteria and raise comparabilitybetween research results.
(2) The human flow, economic flow and carbon-based energy flow are important parameters tocharacterize structural differentiation and spatial pattern evolution for urban terrain systems. Thestructure-pattern-process analysis for urban carbon-based energy metabolism is proved to be a newperspective to study the response of carbon-based energy metabolism to sector restructuring. Carbon-basedenergy metabolism structure includes not only the static departments’ metabolism, also include the dynamicexternal services and network metabolism. Structure-pattern-process analysis for urban carbon-basedenergy metabolism was comprehensively integrated from structural dimension, space and time dimension.
（3）Urban carbon-cone analysis model is an integrated model, composing of urban flow intensitymodel, EIO-LCA model and spatial analysis methods. There are some assumptions on carbon-based energymetabolism accounting of population and industry. Learning from the diversification index of industrialstructure, urban primacy than urban rank-size rule, this paper built urban sector structure of carbon-basedenergy metabolism model. Based on location, the remaining employees (output value) index, drawing onurban flows intensity calculation formula, this paper designed the city outward service carbon-based energymetabolism potential measurable indicators. Based on the data of input-output table, this paper measuredthe city outward service ability of carbon-based energy metabolism using the net export of carbonemissions. By use of EIO-LCA model, this paper measured completely carbon emission intensity of theurban industrial sector, the influence of the carbon-based energy metabolism and induction force,calculated the household consumption, investment and net exports combination of carbon emissionsrelationship, analysis of a completely carbon emissions industrial chain network structure, so as to explorethe structure of the carbon emissions associated network.
（4）Sector changes in the structure of carbon-based energy metabolism in Beijing presented adifferent stage, sectoral and regional characteristics. Carbon-based energy metabolism of external servicesrendered the structure alternately evolution trend. The industrial carbon-based energy metabolism in associated network has different feature between production process and industrial chains. The totalcarbon-based energy metabolism and the carbon-based energy metabolism intensity in Beijing present thedifferent characteristics. The potential and capabilities of carbon-based energy metabolism of externalservices has different variation, with a high degree of fluctuations for highly associated sectors.
（5）The carbon-based energy metabolism in Beijing has significant characteristics of regional layerstructure. Spatial hierarchical structure showed network structure based on the core-peripheral mode. Thecarbon emission center is not consistent with the population and economic center. The functiongeographical structure presents the patchiness on the circle structure, and new metabolic types existbetween the layers by industry heterogeneity. Carbon-based energy metabolic circle structure in Beijingincludes metabolic flux circle, metabolic gathering circle, and producer services metabolism circle.
（6）There is a long-run equilibrium relationship between carbon-based energy metabolism andeconomic growth in Beijing City. The changes from carbon emissions are in the interaction of factors suchintensity (technical) effects, structural effects and economies of scale effects. The main reasons for carbonemissions increase are the rapid growth for economies of scale and the exogenous pattern for economicdevelopment by factors inputting. The residential sector has less contribution than production sectors oncarbon emissions, while gaps are gradually narrowing. The decoupling state between carbon emissions andeconomic development determines the direction and the degree of industrial restructuring and upgrading.(4)Industrial structure adjustment's contribution of carbon emissions and the degree of decoupling needfurther studying.
（7）The border and scope definition of carbon-based energy metabolic accounting is contributed toincrease the comparability. Carbon-cone analysis model has advantages in the analysis on carbon-basedenergy metabolism of structural differentiation. However, the city is an open complex giant system, and theman-land relationship in urban terrain system exhibits holistic, structured, hierarchical, functional, dynamiccharacteristics. Multi-source data access and verify is the basis for deep study of carbon-cone model.Further explanation of the model assumptions will improved the model. The consideration on energystructure conduce to further analysis the man-land relationship in urban terrain system.
（1）基于空间要素流的城市碳基能源代谢分类有助于增加碳排放核算的规范性和可比性。基于地理边界、足迹区和地理边界+的碳基能源代谢核算既能描述生产过程的碳排放，又能刻画产业链过程的碳排放，可进一步增强产业与能源结构调整、消费模式转变所导致的碳排放核算的规范性和可比性，有助于制定更有操作性的碳减排约束政策。不同边界与范畴下的碳基能源代谢核算能描述了不同程度的人地关系紧张程度，三种核算方法从不同层面揭示了城市社会经济发展的碳基能源代谢特点。
（2）城市碳基能源代谢结构-格局-过程分析框架（碳锥概念模型）多层面和多尺度揭示了城市碳基能源代谢的演变特点。通过城市碳基能源代谢结构的进一步分解，突破了仅从部门产值结构进行分析的局限性，突出了对外服务结构和关联网络结构以及空间结构在理解城市碳基能源代谢方面的开放性和复杂性，可在明确碳减排关键部门的基础上能够进一步阐释城市之间的碳减排关联和定位碳减排敏感部门，还能进一步呈现城市碳基能源代谢的地域网络、圈层模式以及空间集聚分散的分异过程，进而多尺度和多层面展示了城市碳基能源代谢的开放性、复杂性和动态性。
（3）城市碳基能源代谢结构-格局-过程集成模型（碳锥分析模型）多维度测度了碳基能源代谢结构，综合阐释了碳基能源代谢演变规律。将人流、经济（产业）流与碳基能源流进行耦合叠置，以及与改进的EIO-LCA模型、空间分析模型进行综合集成而构建的城市碳锥分析模型，可有效整合基于产业的结构分异和基于人口集散的空间分异分析方法，并使其能够对城市碳基代谢进行多维测度，有助于从初始投入结构、最终需求结构、最终产出结构层面综合解释碳基能源代谢演变机制。
（4）北京市部门、对外服务、产业关联的碳基能源代谢结构变化分别具有阶段性-部门性、交替演变性、生产过程与产业异位性的特点。北京市碳基能源代谢总量与强度呈现不同的部门特点，并依工业行业类型及碳排放量而存在位序-规模分布和倒U型分布等分布模式。对外服务碳基能源代谢潜力“退二进三”的产业变化趋向明显，对外服务碳基能源代谢能力呈现行业波动增长的状态，城市对外服务所带来的经济增长效益低于所带来的资源压力与环境影响。碳基能源代谢关联程度高的部门碳排放变化波动大，关联程度低的部门变化相对平稳；高直接碳排部门的隐含碳排放并不一定高，直接碳排放相对较低的部门隐含碳排放可能居高不下。
（5）北京市碳基能源代谢存在明显的圈层结构。空间等级结构整体上表现为核心-外围模式，但网络结构的雏形已经显现，且碳排放中心与人口、经济中心错位，功能地域结构呈现为圈层结构上的斑块化，圈层之间受产业异质性冲击而形成新的代谢类型。各区县根据不同的代谢特点可分为4种碳基能源代谢区域，因地域分工变化而表现出不同的演变规律与地域组合。街区碳基能源代谢的空间增长模式属于人口规模驱动型发展（扩散式1型、集聚式2型），中心区与外围区交接地带可能存在高能耗产业驱动的代谢模式（极化式2型、扩散式2型）。
（6）北京市碳基能源代谢与经济增长存在长期均衡关系，产业投入产出结构从多层面影响碳基能源代谢变化。城市、部门经济发展与其碳基能源代谢变化表现为总体上的直线型与农业、工业部门的倒U型演变态势，但工业分行业的扩张性负脱钩及扩张性耦合则进一步表明经济发展速度总体上要高于碳排放增长速度，进而说明初始要素投入结构、最终消费结构、最终需求结构变化对碳排放增加的比较突出。
本研究的主要贡献为：（1）基于空间要素流视角提出地理边界、足迹区、地理边界+的碳基能源代谢核算方法体系，能够弥补已有研究中基于生产和消费碳排放核算方法中存在的重要缺陷，有助于揭示社会经济发展对资源耗竭与环境变化的影响。（2）城市碳基能源代谢结构的多维分解及其城市碳锥分析模型的构建，以及对城市碳基能源代谢产业结构、空间结构、关联网络结构和时间演变的有效测度，在很大程度上突破了单一产业碳排放结构分析的局限，不仅有助于揭示城市碳基能源代谢的开放性、复杂性和动态性，而且有助于进一步阐释城市、部门经济发展与碳基能源代谢变化的复杂关系，还能为制定因时因地的碳减排约束政策提供理论依据。
Face to the challenge of global climate change and the depletion of natural resources, the study ofcarbon emissions is an important breakthrough. And the industrial restructuring is becoming the key pointfor the low-carbon development in urban area. However, existing empirical results showed that theadjustment of industrial structure does not play an obviously contribution to the carbon emissions reduction.Therefore, there is a doubt on the proposition that whether there is an effect of adjustment of the industrialstructure to promote the development of low-carbon urban area. Urban area is as a high degree of opennessof the system, energy consumption and carbon emission show some new features during the process ofurban factor mobility. Based on the output value structure of the city's economic activities, the externalservice structure, industry association network structure, and the start point of city carbon emissioncalculation, this paper broadens the connotation of industrial structure, build a structure-pattern-process(carbon cone) model of carbon-based energy metabolism to analyze urban carbon emissions factorsconstitution，spatial evolution, and thus to answer which departments and geographical unit should beadjusted, and what means is effect in the low-carbon urban development process.
Focus on the weaknesses research of urban scale carbon emissions accounting, as well as the urbanmetabolism of defects on the socio-economic subsystem of carbon-based energy transfer analysis, based onthe interpretation of the carbon footprint and urban metabolism, this paper interpreted the connotation ofcarbon emissions, defined the scope of its accounting boundary and divided urban complex ecosystemcarbon-based energy four kinds of areas of different metabolic processes accounting object. Studiessuggested that carbon emissions is a group of low-carbon eco-city index system for the measurement of theuse of resources and the environment in the urban social and economic development process. Threeaccounting type revealed the characteristics of carbon emissions. The three combinations cancomprehensively analysis the impact path and law on the development of low-carbon eco-city from theenergy structure adjustment, resident lifestyle changes.
For the openness of the city as well as the complexity of urban carbon emissions, this paper built amodel of structure-pattern-process (carbon cone) for urban carbon-based energy metabolism study. Theindustry is as an important carrier of the Urban Elements stream of carbon-based energy metabolismstudies, not only to analyze the closed cities’ industrial carbon emissions structure, but also to study thepotential and capabilities of carbon-based energy metabolism under the different theories assume and urbanforeign Service, as well as carbon emissions interaction network structure in the different industrial chain.Based on the research of the spatial structure of the spatial distribution and combination, this paper studiedthe spatial structure, spatial differentiation and growth characteristics of carbon emissions from the level,function, growth, structure. Carbon emissions from different departments/space with the improvement ofthe level of economic development showed regularity type or oscillatory dynamic transformation. And thenit analyzed and verified of carbon emissions and economic development relationship from the inverted U-shaped, inverted N-type, inverted L-shaped. Combination of economic growth, industrial restructuring,the geographical division of labor theory, the paper studied the dynamic mechanism of the evolution ofcarbon-based energy metabolism causal contact mechanisms, gathering diffusion mechanism, from thedriving force of economic growth, structural adjustment bonus level of industrial agglomerationadvantages.A case study for Beijing was taken to explore the structural differentiation, spatial variation andevolution mechanism of urban carbon-based energy metabolism. The conclusions are following:
(1) Carbon-based energy metabolism accountings in different border and scope could describedifferent levels of tension for the relationship between human and earth. Three accounting methods revealthe metabolic characteristics for urban social and economic development from different point of view,including accounting in geographic boundaries, accounting in geographic boundaries+and accounting infootprint area. Each accounting method has its own characteristics, of which to be chosen depending on theavailable data and the targeted research objectives, in order to fortify criteria and raise comparabilitybetween research results.
(2) The human flow, economic flow and carbon-based energy flow are important parameters tocharacterize structural differentiation and spatial pattern evolution for urban terrain systems. Thestructure-pattern-process analysis for urban carbon-based energy metabolism is proved to be a newperspective to study the response of carbon-based energy metabolism to sector restructuring. Carbon-basedenergy metabolism structure includes not only the static departments’ metabolism, also include the dynamicexternal services and network metabolism. Structure-pattern-process analysis for urban carbon-basedenergy metabolism was comprehensively integrated from structural dimension, space and time dimension.
（3）Urban carbon-cone analysis model is an integrated model, composing of urban flow intensitymodel, EIO-LCA model and spatial analysis methods. There are some assumptions on carbon-based energymetabolism accounting of population and industry. Learning from the diversification index of industrialstructure, urban primacy than urban rank-size rule, this paper built urban sector structure of carbon-basedenergy metabolism model. Based on location, the remaining employees (output value) index, drawing onurban flows intensity calculation formula, this paper designed the city outward service carbon-based energymetabolism potential measurable indicators. Based on the data of input-output table, this paper measuredthe city outward service ability of carbon-based energy metabolism using the net export of carbonemissions. By use of EIO-LCA model, this paper measured completely carbon emission intensity of theurban industrial sector, the influence of the carbon-based energy metabolism and induction force,calculated the household consumption, investment and net exports combination of carbon emissionsrelationship, analysis of a completely carbon emissions industrial chain network structure, so as to explorethe structure of the carbon emissions associated network.
（4）Sector changes in the structure of carbon-based energy metabolism in Beijing presented adifferent stage, sectoral and regional characteristics. Carbon-based energy metabolism of external servicesrendered the structure alternately evolution trend. The industrial carbon-based energy metabolism in associated network has different feature between production process and industrial chains. The totalcarbon-based energy metabolism and the carbon-based energy metabolism intensity in Beijing present thedifferent characteristics. The potential and capabilities of carbon-based energy metabolism of externalservices has different variation, with a high degree of fluctuations for highly associated sectors.
（5）The carbon-based energy metabolism in Beijing has significant characteristics of regional layerstructure. Spatial hierarchical structure showed network structure based on the core-peripheral mode. Thecarbon emission center is not consistent with the population and economic center. The functiongeographical structure presents the patchiness on the circle structure, and new metabolic types existbetween the layers by industry heterogeneity. Carbon-based energy metabolic circle structure in Beijingincludes metabolic flux circle, metabolic gathering circle, and producer services metabolism circle.
（6）There is a long-run equilibrium relationship between carbon-based energy metabolism andeconomic growth in Beijing City. The changes from carbon emissions are in the interaction of factors suchintensity (technical) effects, structural effects and economies of scale effects. The main reasons for carbonemissions increase are the rapid growth for economies of scale and the exogenous pattern for economicdevelopment by factors inputting. The residential sector has less contribution than production sectors oncarbon emissions, while gaps are gradually narrowing. The decoupling state between carbon emissions andeconomic development determines the direction and the degree of industrial restructuring and upgrading.(4)Industrial structure adjustment's contribution of carbon emissions and the degree of decoupling needfurther studying.
（7）The border and scope definition of carbon-based energy metabolic accounting is contributed toincrease the comparability. Carbon-cone analysis model has advantages in the analysis on carbon-basedenergy metabolism of structural differentiation. However, the city is an open complex giant system, and theman-land relationship in urban terrain system exhibits holistic, structured, hierarchical, functional, dynamiccharacteristics. Multi-source data access and verify is the basis for deep study of carbon-cone model.Further explanation of the model assumptions will improved the model. The consideration on energystructure conduce to further analysis the man-land relationship in urban terrain system.
引文
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