中国碳生产率变动及其主要影响因素研究
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摘要
我国当前正处于碳排放的“相对减排”阶段,实现碳排放总量的减排,或者说“绝对减排”,还需要相当长的时间。有研究预估我国碳排放峰值在2030-2040年之间,这就意味着我国从当前的“相对减排”通往“绝对减排”,还需要再走二三十年甚至更长的路。如何走好这段路,如何协调经济发展和碳减排之间关系,无疑是眼下值得深思与研究的一个重要课题。为此,本文引入“碳生产率”的概念,将促进经济增长和控制二氧化碳排放两个目标有机结合起来,通过对我国碳生产率变动与其影响因素的研究,探寻新形势下我国从“相对减排”通往“绝对减排”、实现经济健康稳定持续增长的发展路径。本文的研究是分三个层次进行的。
首先,本文研究了碳生产率变动与“相对减排”、“绝对减排”的阶段规律,指出从“相对减排”通往“绝对减排”,是一个碳生产率不断上升、碳强度不断下降、碳排放总量仍在增加但最终目的要下降的阶段。从数学论证来看,碳生产率增长是“相对减排”和“绝对减排”的必然要求,是影响碳相对减排阶段的关键；从国际经验来看,西方主要发达国家基本上都经历了碳相对减排阶段,其经历的时间长短,与进入这一阶段的碳生产率水平和整个阶段碳生产率的提高情况有较强的联系。
其次,本文研究了我国碳生产率的变动情况与主要影响因素。本文利用对数均值迪氏指数分解法(LMD工),建立了一个碳生产率影响因素解析模型,将我国碳生产率的变动归结为能源效率、能源结构、产业结构、空间结构等四个因素的贡献；而初步验证表明“十一五”时期我国东、中、西部地区碳生产率增长的最主要原因是能源效率效应,产业结构效应也较为突出,而能源结构效应和空间结构效应所受制约较多、影响较小。接着为进一步分析各个因素对我国碳生产率变动的影响,本文在第四章研究了我国碳生产率变动的能源效率效应,在第五章研究了我国碳生产率变动的能源结构效应,在第六章侧重从工业化和城镇化方面研究了我国碳生产率变动的产业结构效应和空间结构效应。
最后,本文结合上述两个方面的研究探讨了从“相对减排”通往“绝对减排”的发展路径问题。我国从“相对减排”通往“绝对减排”,关键是要大幅提升碳生产率,以更少的碳排放换取更大的经济产出；重点是要提高能源效率、改善能源结构、优化产业结构和空间结构,以更为低碳的方式实现我国跨越式发展。以湖北省为例,从“相对减排”通往“绝对减排”的发展路径就是要大幅提升碳生产率,提高能源效率、改善能源结构、走低碳工业化和低碳城镇化互动发展之路。
Currently our country is at the "relative reduction" stage of carbon emissions. It still needs quite a long time to realize the reduction of total carbon emissions, or "absolute reduction". Some Research has forecast China's carbon emissions peak between2030-2040, which means that China still needs to go for another twenty or thirty years or even longer from the current "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction ". How to walk the road, and how to coordinate the relationship between economic development and carbon emission reduction, is now an important topic to ponder and research. To this end, the paper introduces the concept of "carbon productivity", combines the two goals of promoting growth and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, studies on the changes of China's carbon productivity and its influence factors,and explores the development path under the new situation from "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction " for the rapid and stable economic growth. The research of the paper is divided into three levels.
First, the paper studies the rule of carbon productivity change and the "relative reduction" stage, the "absolute reduction" stage. From "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction ", namely the relative reduction stage, is a stage that carbon productivity is raising, carbon intensity is falling, and carbon emissions is still on the increase but eventually needs to fall. From the mathematical proof, carbon productivity growth is the inevitable requirement of "relative reduction" and "absolute reduction ", and is the key to affect the relative reduction stage of carbon emissions. From the international experience, the main western developed countries have basically experienced the relative reduction stage of carbon emissions, and the length of time that they experienced has a strong connection with the carbon productivity level of entering and the carbon productivity improvement of the whole stage.
Second, the paper studies the changes of China's carbon productivity and its main influencing factors. In the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) approach, the paper sets up a carbon productivity factors analytical model, and puts the changes of carbon productivity down to the contribution of energy efficiency, energy structure, industrial structure and spatial structure. The preliminary validation show that during the eleventh five-year plan period, the main reason of the carbon productivity growth in eastern, central and western regions is the effect of energy efficiency, and the effect of industrial structure is also outstanding, while the effect of energy structure and spatial structure is affected by the constraints and much small. Then in order to further analyze the influence of factors on carbon productivity change in China, the paper studies the effect of energy efficiency on China's carbon productivity change in the fourth chapter, and studies the effect of energy structure on China's carbon productivity change in the fifth chapter, and studies the effect of industrial structure and spatial structure on China's carbon productivity change in the sixth chapter.
Finally, combining the above two aspects of research, the paper discusses the development path from "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction". The paper suggests that it is right for China to choose "relative reduction", which follows the law of development, conforms to China's national conditions, and has proved effective by the practice. China currently is at the relative reduction stage of carbon emissions, which is a stage of economic take-off and leapfrog development, a stage of tight resources and environment constraints, a transitional stage towards to absolute reduction, and a key stage of improving carbon productivity. From "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction" for China, the key is to greatly increase the carbon productivity, with less carbon emissions for more economic output. The point is to increase energy efficiency, improve the energy structure, and optimize the industrial structure and spatial structure, and achieve leapfrog development for China in a more low carbon way. Taking Hubei province as an example, the development path from "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction" is to greatly increase the carbon productivity by increasing energy efficiency, improving the energy structure, and walking the way of combining low-carbon Industrialization and low-carbon urbanization.
首先,本文研究了碳生产率变动与“相对减排”、“绝对减排”的阶段规律,指出从“相对减排”通往“绝对减排”,是一个碳生产率不断上升、碳强度不断下降、碳排放总量仍在增加但最终目的要下降的阶段。从数学论证来看,碳生产率增长是“相对减排”和“绝对减排”的必然要求,是影响碳相对减排阶段的关键；从国际经验来看,西方主要发达国家基本上都经历了碳相对减排阶段,其经历的时间长短,与进入这一阶段的碳生产率水平和整个阶段碳生产率的提高情况有较强的联系。
其次,本文研究了我国碳生产率的变动情况与主要影响因素。本文利用对数均值迪氏指数分解法(LMD工),建立了一个碳生产率影响因素解析模型,将我国碳生产率的变动归结为能源效率、能源结构、产业结构、空间结构等四个因素的贡献；而初步验证表明“十一五”时期我国东、中、西部地区碳生产率增长的最主要原因是能源效率效应,产业结构效应也较为突出,而能源结构效应和空间结构效应所受制约较多、影响较小。接着为进一步分析各个因素对我国碳生产率变动的影响,本文在第四章研究了我国碳生产率变动的能源效率效应,在第五章研究了我国碳生产率变动的能源结构效应,在第六章侧重从工业化和城镇化方面研究了我国碳生产率变动的产业结构效应和空间结构效应。
最后,本文结合上述两个方面的研究探讨了从“相对减排”通往“绝对减排”的发展路径问题。我国从“相对减排”通往“绝对减排”,关键是要大幅提升碳生产率,以更少的碳排放换取更大的经济产出；重点是要提高能源效率、改善能源结构、优化产业结构和空间结构,以更为低碳的方式实现我国跨越式发展。以湖北省为例,从“相对减排”通往“绝对减排”的发展路径就是要大幅提升碳生产率,提高能源效率、改善能源结构、走低碳工业化和低碳城镇化互动发展之路。
Currently our country is at the "relative reduction" stage of carbon emissions. It still needs quite a long time to realize the reduction of total carbon emissions, or "absolute reduction". Some Research has forecast China's carbon emissions peak between2030-2040, which means that China still needs to go for another twenty or thirty years or even longer from the current "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction ". How to walk the road, and how to coordinate the relationship between economic development and carbon emission reduction, is now an important topic to ponder and research. To this end, the paper introduces the concept of "carbon productivity", combines the two goals of promoting growth and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, studies on the changes of China's carbon productivity and its influence factors,and explores the development path under the new situation from "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction " for the rapid and stable economic growth. The research of the paper is divided into three levels.
First, the paper studies the rule of carbon productivity change and the "relative reduction" stage, the "absolute reduction" stage. From "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction ", namely the relative reduction stage, is a stage that carbon productivity is raising, carbon intensity is falling, and carbon emissions is still on the increase but eventually needs to fall. From the mathematical proof, carbon productivity growth is the inevitable requirement of "relative reduction" and "absolute reduction ", and is the key to affect the relative reduction stage of carbon emissions. From the international experience, the main western developed countries have basically experienced the relative reduction stage of carbon emissions, and the length of time that they experienced has a strong connection with the carbon productivity level of entering and the carbon productivity improvement of the whole stage.
Second, the paper studies the changes of China's carbon productivity and its main influencing factors. In the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) approach, the paper sets up a carbon productivity factors analytical model, and puts the changes of carbon productivity down to the contribution of energy efficiency, energy structure, industrial structure and spatial structure. The preliminary validation show that during the eleventh five-year plan period, the main reason of the carbon productivity growth in eastern, central and western regions is the effect of energy efficiency, and the effect of industrial structure is also outstanding, while the effect of energy structure and spatial structure is affected by the constraints and much small. Then in order to further analyze the influence of factors on carbon productivity change in China, the paper studies the effect of energy efficiency on China's carbon productivity change in the fourth chapter, and studies the effect of energy structure on China's carbon productivity change in the fifth chapter, and studies the effect of industrial structure and spatial structure on China's carbon productivity change in the sixth chapter.
Finally, combining the above two aspects of research, the paper discusses the development path from "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction". The paper suggests that it is right for China to choose "relative reduction", which follows the law of development, conforms to China's national conditions, and has proved effective by the practice. China currently is at the relative reduction stage of carbon emissions, which is a stage of economic take-off and leapfrog development, a stage of tight resources and environment constraints, a transitional stage towards to absolute reduction, and a key stage of improving carbon productivity. From "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction" for China, the key is to greatly increase the carbon productivity, with less carbon emissions for more economic output. The point is to increase energy efficiency, improve the energy structure, and optimize the industrial structure and spatial structure, and achieve leapfrog development for China in a more low carbon way. Taking Hubei province as an example, the development path from "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction" is to greatly increase the carbon productivity by increasing energy efficiency, improving the energy structure, and walking the way of combining low-carbon Industrialization and low-carbon urbanization.
引文
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