Bass模型的扩展研究
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摘要
技术扩散是技术创新研究的一个重要领域,是广义技术创新的后续过程。技术扩散过程由于涉及多方面的因素,预测非常困难。本文构建了XYZ模型,并以我国电信业为例进行技术扩散过程的实证研究。
本文以经典的Bass模型为基础构建XYZ技术扩散模型。XYZ模型假设技术扩散过程受潜在价值预期和实际使用效果两方面因素推动,潜在价值预期是独立于扩散进程并且不可持续,而实际使用效果则由技术提供者根据最优投资决策确定。XYZ模型修正了传统Bass模型与现实不符的部分假设,克服了Bass仅能预测成功的扩散的严重缺点,能够更精确地预测技术扩散过程。
本文还对XYZ模型进行扩展,建立了多参数预测模型、简约模型和存在竞争性技术提供者的扩散模型。多参数模型将技术提供者、使用者以及技术本身的多项影响因素纳入到模型中,使模型的预测更加准确,适用范围更广。简约模型在保留可变潜在价值预期和实际使用价值这两项重要假设的前提下,将XYZ模型缩减为一条方程,使模型可以用于分析同一技术在不同环境下扩散过程的差异。存在竞争性技术提供者的扩散模型考虑了市场上多个技术提供者之间的竞争问题,可以用于对市场竞争格局进行分析。
借助XYZ模型,本文实证分析了移动通信技术和互联网宽带接入技术的扩散趋势以及影响扩散过程的主要因素。实证分析结果显示,我国移动通信市场正处于快速发展阶段,未来年均增长率在7%左右,而互联网宽带接入市场还处于发展初期,难以与移动通信市场抗衡。固话运营商和移动运营商之间的业务收入差距将继续扩大,如果不进行改革,市场将无法实现有效竞争。
本文最后利用技术扩散模型分析了存在网络外部性技术的竞争市场的特征,并根据电信业的特点就电信业改革提出建议:1.进一步开放电信市场,引入虚拟电信运营商。2.推动网络运营商之间的全面互联互通,降低运营商服务的网络外部性。3.构建电信服务交易市场,实现全方位竞争局面。4.规范电信服务信息披露制度,提高服务的透明度。
Technology diffusion is an important field in technology innovation research. It is the proceding process of broad technology diffusion process. The technology diffusion process is difficult to forecast, because of its complexity. This essay constructed the XYZ model, and empirically analysed the technology diffusion process of China telecomunication industry.
This essay formulated the XYZ technology diffusion model, based on Bass diffusion model. XYZ model assumed the technology diffusion process is influenced by two factors: potential value expectation and real usage performance. The potential value expectation is independent from diffusion process and unpersistable. The real usage performance is driven by technology supplier, based on their best investment decision. XYZ model justified the assumption of Bass model, overcomed the deficit of Bass model, that the model can only forecase the succeed process but not the failure process. XYZ model includes more input variables than Bass model, which result in more percise forecasting and wider usage area.
This essay also extended the XYZ model to multi-variable forecasting model, concised model and multiple player competition model. Multi-variable forecasting model put the factors from technology supplier, user, and the technology itself into the model, make the model more percise. The concise model simplify the model into only one equation, make the model applicable to the comparasion search. The multiple player model considered the situation that many competitors compet in the market and can be used in market competition structure analysis.
Based on XYZ model, the essay empirically analysed the diffusion process of mobile technology and internet broad-band access technology in China. The research showed that the mobile technology is in the middle term of diffusion process. In the short future, the annual growth rate will excess 7%. The internet broad-band access technology is still in the beginning of the diffusion process, the growth rate is low. The fixed-line network operator is difficult to compete with moble network operator without market reform.
The essay finally use diffusion model to analyse the market structure and give advice in telecommunication industry reform: 1. open the telecommunication market and import virtual network operator. 2. promote the complete free inter-connection of operators to reduce the network externality. 3. build telecommuniation service exchange to achieve total competition. 4. regulate the information disclosure system to improve the service transparency.
本文以经典的Bass模型为基础构建XYZ技术扩散模型。XYZ模型假设技术扩散过程受潜在价值预期和实际使用效果两方面因素推动,潜在价值预期是独立于扩散进程并且不可持续,而实际使用效果则由技术提供者根据最优投资决策确定。XYZ模型修正了传统Bass模型与现实不符的部分假设,克服了Bass仅能预测成功的扩散的严重缺点,能够更精确地预测技术扩散过程。
本文还对XYZ模型进行扩展,建立了多参数预测模型、简约模型和存在竞争性技术提供者的扩散模型。多参数模型将技术提供者、使用者以及技术本身的多项影响因素纳入到模型中,使模型的预测更加准确,适用范围更广。简约模型在保留可变潜在价值预期和实际使用价值这两项重要假设的前提下,将XYZ模型缩减为一条方程,使模型可以用于分析同一技术在不同环境下扩散过程的差异。存在竞争性技术提供者的扩散模型考虑了市场上多个技术提供者之间的竞争问题,可以用于对市场竞争格局进行分析。
借助XYZ模型,本文实证分析了移动通信技术和互联网宽带接入技术的扩散趋势以及影响扩散过程的主要因素。实证分析结果显示,我国移动通信市场正处于快速发展阶段,未来年均增长率在7%左右,而互联网宽带接入市场还处于发展初期,难以与移动通信市场抗衡。固话运营商和移动运营商之间的业务收入差距将继续扩大,如果不进行改革,市场将无法实现有效竞争。
本文最后利用技术扩散模型分析了存在网络外部性技术的竞争市场的特征,并根据电信业的特点就电信业改革提出建议:1.进一步开放电信市场,引入虚拟电信运营商。2.推动网络运营商之间的全面互联互通,降低运营商服务的网络外部性。3.构建电信服务交易市场,实现全方位竞争局面。4.规范电信服务信息披露制度,提高服务的透明度。
Technology diffusion is an important field in technology innovation research. It is the proceding process of broad technology diffusion process. The technology diffusion process is difficult to forecast, because of its complexity. This essay constructed the XYZ model, and empirically analysed the technology diffusion process of China telecomunication industry.
This essay formulated the XYZ technology diffusion model, based on Bass diffusion model. XYZ model assumed the technology diffusion process is influenced by two factors: potential value expectation and real usage performance. The potential value expectation is independent from diffusion process and unpersistable. The real usage performance is driven by technology supplier, based on their best investment decision. XYZ model justified the assumption of Bass model, overcomed the deficit of Bass model, that the model can only forecase the succeed process but not the failure process. XYZ model includes more input variables than Bass model, which result in more percise forecasting and wider usage area.
This essay also extended the XYZ model to multi-variable forecasting model, concised model and multiple player competition model. Multi-variable forecasting model put the factors from technology supplier, user, and the technology itself into the model, make the model more percise. The concise model simplify the model into only one equation, make the model applicable to the comparasion search. The multiple player model considered the situation that many competitors compet in the market and can be used in market competition structure analysis.
Based on XYZ model, the essay empirically analysed the diffusion process of mobile technology and internet broad-band access technology in China. The research showed that the mobile technology is in the middle term of diffusion process. In the short future, the annual growth rate will excess 7%. The internet broad-band access technology is still in the beginning of the diffusion process, the growth rate is low. The fixed-line network operator is difficult to compete with moble network operator without market reform.
The essay finally use diffusion model to analyse the market structure and give advice in telecommunication industry reform: 1. open the telecommunication market and import virtual network operator. 2. promote the complete free inter-connection of operators to reduce the network externality. 3. build telecommuniation service exchange to achieve total competition. 4. regulate the information disclosure system to improve the service transparency.
引文
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