劳动力流动、产业转移与城市发展研究
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摘要
在当今经济的发展中,城市和城市体系的不断发展和完善成为影响和推动经济发展的重要动力,中心城市和城市体系的发展是一个区域经济发展和竞争力提升的关键。世界各国都在城市化过程中实现了经济的快速发展,也在应对城市化所带来的各种问题,我国已进入城市化高速发展时期,我国应采取何种城市化模式成为我国理论界争论不休的问题之一
新经济地理学理论吸收了马歇尔的外部性理论、缪尔达尔的循环因果和阿瑟的路径依赖思想,利用了迪克斯特—斯蒂格利茨的垄断竞争模型建立了一系列模型,将厂商层次的报酬递增、外部经济等因素纳入到了一般均衡的框架之中,使我们能够真正地在主流经济学的框架内研究空间现象。利用新经济地理学理论可以从内生的角度探讨城市的出现、发展、分异和城市体系演变的内在作用关系以及产业转移的动态过程。
在城市化的发展过程中,流动要素是劳动者,劳动者追求效用最大化的过程也就是劳动者向高收入和低成本地区转移的过程。在这个过程中,聚集力和分散力同时起作用,聚集力的根源来源于城市内部的大市场对企业的吸引力和靠近城市市场使劳动者节约生活成本,本地市场效应和生活成本效用形成了循环累积因果关系,促使劳动者向城市聚集。分散力一方面来源于企业之间的相互竞争而导致的市场拥挤效应。另一方面来源于农业生产对土地的依附和农产品的运输成本。
本研究在回顾产业聚集和城市发展的传统理论并梳理新经济地理学理论脉络的基础上,在新经济地理学的框架下,沿用藤田、克鲁格曼和维纳布尔斯建立的市场潜能函数,解释城市出现和持续的内在机制,探讨单一城市的稳定性、新城市出现的条件与城市发展的影响因素,并进一步讨论了劳动力有限流动对城市发展的影响。进而利用新经济地理学理论解释了城市间产业差异形成的直接动因和内在机制以及城市间产业差异的逆转,并以长江三角洲地区为依据进行相应的实证分析。
新城市的出现或原有城市规模的扩大,都受人口规模的变化以及企业和劳动力的区位选择的影响。如果人口规模小,则新城市的形成比较困难；如果人口规模大,则原有城市体系容易被破坏,容易形成新的城市。当在近距离范围内存在两个大城市时,如果两个城市之间没有形成生产的高度分工,那么这两个城市之间争夺资源的竞争将是很激烈的。
经济发展水平影响城市规模的大小。当经济发展水平低且人口规模较小时,如果出现新城市,那么这些城市的人口规模和产业活动的密度都小。随着人均收入的提高,城市范围和人口规模不断增大,而且呈现加速扩大趋势,原有城市的优势得到不断强化,稳定性增强。随着城市人口的进一步增长,城市化在一段时期内表现为原有城市规模的扩大,人口密度的提高。当经济发展水平较高时,大城市主导型模式将成为主要的城市化模式。
经济发展水平、工农业产品的运输成本和劳动力的流动性是影响城市化和城市发展水平的重要因素。随着人均收入的提高,城市化率不断增大,城市化速度先增加后降低,城市人口由高密度居住向低密度居住转变。随着工业品运输成本的提高,聚集力不断增强,城市化率不断提高,城市人口居住密度提高,随着农产品运输成本的提高,城市化过程中的分散力增强,城市的范围、城市总人口和城市化率都呈现出明显的下降趋势。无论考虑哪种因素,农村劳动力向城市流动的障碍都是限制城市化和城市发展的重要因素。劳动力从乡村向城市的流动障碍越大,城市化的进程越缓慢。
劳动力流动、资本流动、资本积累、技术外溢是造成城市之间产业份额差异的直接原因。即使劳动力在城市间不流动,企业间的投入产出联系也会导致产业的集聚和核心边缘结构的形成。通过控制贸易自由化和知识溢出效应可以调整在城市之间的一体化进程中产业聚集的规模。两个城市相对工资的差异和税收竞争可以促进产业在城市之间的扩散,不过这种扩散是有条件的。
经过实证研究,长江三角洲地区的城市中上海的首位度较高,但是其他高位次城市规模不很突出,中间位序的城镇较多,中小城市比重大。通过面板数据分析可知,新经济地理学广泛关注的变量工业品支出份额、工业品贸易成本和农产品贸易成本对长三角地区的城市化有很强的解释能力,进而通过工业品支出份额与人均收入的关系可以说明经济发展水平对城市化水平产生影响。
With the development of nowaday economy, the continuous development and improvement of urban and urban system are important driving forces to impact and promote economic development. The central city and urban system are the key factors to improve the competitiveness and economy growth of a region. All the countries in the world have achieved rapid economic development in the process of urbanization, and also faced the various issues brought about by urbanization. China has already entered a period of rapid development of urbanization, and what kind of urbanization pattern China should adopt becomes a controversial topic in China's theory field.
Absorbing Marshall's externality theory, Myrdal's circular causality theory, Arthur's path dependency theory and using Dixit and Stiglitz's Monopolistic Competition model, the new economic geography theory establishes a series of models, in which it integrates the increasing returns of firm level and external economies into a general equilibrium framework, so that we can easily study space issues within the framework of mainstream economics. Making use of new economy geography theory, we can explore the emergence, development and differentiation of the cities from the perspective of the endogenous theory, and study the inherent relationships of the urban system evolution and the dynamic process of industrial transfer.
In the development process of urbanization, the labours are mobile factors. In order to achieve utility maximization, the labours move to high-income or low-cost regions. In this process, the agglomeration forces and dispersion forces operate simultaneously. The agglomeration forces come from both the attraction of big market in center city to firms, and the saving of living cost by proximity of workers to urban markets. The local market effect and living cost effect form circular cumulative causatity, which prompt labour to agglomerate in urban area. Dispersion forces on the one hand originate from the market crowding effect causing by competition of the frims, on the other hand come from agricultural transport costs and the dependence of agricultural production on land and.
In this study, on basis of the traditional theory of industry agglomeration and urban development, the author reviews the new economic geography. In the new economic geography framework, the paper uses market potential function established by Fujita, Krugman and Venables to explain the inherent mechanism for the emergence and growth of a city. The stability of a single city, the conditions to create a new city and the factors affecting urban development are discussed. Then the impact of the limited mobility of labor on urban development is further discussed. The auther takes advantage of new economic geography theory to explain the direct reasons of the industry differences between cities, and tries to find how to reverse the difference. The empirical analysis is based on the data of Yangtze River Delta area.
Both the emergence of new cities and the expansion of the original city size are subject to the changes in population size and location decisions of firms and labours. If population is small, the formation of new cities is difficult; if population is large, the existing urban system can easily be destroyed and form a new city. When there are two major cities nearby, if they are not in division of high degree, the competition for resources between the two cities will be very intense.
Level of economic development impacts of city size. When the level of economic development is low and the population size is small, if there is a new city, the city's population size and density of industrial activity will be small. With the increase in per capita income, the urban area and population is increasing, and shows the trend to accelerate growth. The original city enhanced its advantage and the stability is strengthened. With the urban population further growth, urbanization appears as the expansion of urban size and the increase of population density in the original city in a period. When the level of economic development is high, the big city-oriented pattern will be the main mode of urbanization.
Level of economic development, industrial and agricultural goods transport costs and labor mobility are the key factors to affect the level of urbanization and urban development. With the increase in per capita incomes, urbanization level is increasing, and the speed of urbanization increases and then decreases, while the residents in city live in high-density firstly and then in low-density. With the improvement of industrial goods transport costs, agglomeration forces continue increasing, and urbanization level and urban population density increases. With the transport costs of agricultural products increasing, the disperse forces increase in the process of urbanization. And the city's size, the total urban population and the urbanization rate have emerged as a downward trend. No matter what kind of factors are considered, the limited mobility of rural labor to urban will restrict urbanization and urban development. The larger migration barriers of labour from rural to urban are, the slower the process of urbanization will be.
Labor mobility, capital flows, capital accumulation and technology spillover are the direct causes to the difference in cities industry share. Even if labors do not flow between cities, input-output linkages between firms can also lead to industry cluster and the core-periphery structure. The industry agglomeration scale can be adjusted by controlling the trade liberalization and knowledge spillovers with the integration process between the cities. The relative wage difference and tax competition between two cities can promote industry diffuses between the cities. But this kind of diffuse is conditional.
By empirical research, Shanghai is the first-degree primate city in the Yangtze River Delta area, but the other primate cities are not very prominent. There are many cities and towns in the middle rank, and the share of the medium and small cities is big. By panel data analysis, industrial goods expenditure share, the trade cost of industrial goods and agricultural products, which are the important variables in new economic geography, have very strong explanatory powers to urbanization of Yangtze River Delta area. And then the impact of the economic development level on urbanization is illustrated by the relationship between industrial goods expenditure share and per capita income.
新经济地理学理论吸收了马歇尔的外部性理论、缪尔达尔的循环因果和阿瑟的路径依赖思想,利用了迪克斯特—斯蒂格利茨的垄断竞争模型建立了一系列模型,将厂商层次的报酬递增、外部经济等因素纳入到了一般均衡的框架之中,使我们能够真正地在主流经济学的框架内研究空间现象。利用新经济地理学理论可以从内生的角度探讨城市的出现、发展、分异和城市体系演变的内在作用关系以及产业转移的动态过程。
在城市化的发展过程中,流动要素是劳动者,劳动者追求效用最大化的过程也就是劳动者向高收入和低成本地区转移的过程。在这个过程中,聚集力和分散力同时起作用,聚集力的根源来源于城市内部的大市场对企业的吸引力和靠近城市市场使劳动者节约生活成本,本地市场效应和生活成本效用形成了循环累积因果关系,促使劳动者向城市聚集。分散力一方面来源于企业之间的相互竞争而导致的市场拥挤效应。另一方面来源于农业生产对土地的依附和农产品的运输成本。
本研究在回顾产业聚集和城市发展的传统理论并梳理新经济地理学理论脉络的基础上,在新经济地理学的框架下,沿用藤田、克鲁格曼和维纳布尔斯建立的市场潜能函数,解释城市出现和持续的内在机制,探讨单一城市的稳定性、新城市出现的条件与城市发展的影响因素,并进一步讨论了劳动力有限流动对城市发展的影响。进而利用新经济地理学理论解释了城市间产业差异形成的直接动因和内在机制以及城市间产业差异的逆转,并以长江三角洲地区为依据进行相应的实证分析。
新城市的出现或原有城市规模的扩大,都受人口规模的变化以及企业和劳动力的区位选择的影响。如果人口规模小,则新城市的形成比较困难；如果人口规模大,则原有城市体系容易被破坏,容易形成新的城市。当在近距离范围内存在两个大城市时,如果两个城市之间没有形成生产的高度分工,那么这两个城市之间争夺资源的竞争将是很激烈的。
经济发展水平影响城市规模的大小。当经济发展水平低且人口规模较小时,如果出现新城市,那么这些城市的人口规模和产业活动的密度都小。随着人均收入的提高,城市范围和人口规模不断增大,而且呈现加速扩大趋势,原有城市的优势得到不断强化,稳定性增强。随着城市人口的进一步增长,城市化在一段时期内表现为原有城市规模的扩大,人口密度的提高。当经济发展水平较高时,大城市主导型模式将成为主要的城市化模式。
经济发展水平、工农业产品的运输成本和劳动力的流动性是影响城市化和城市发展水平的重要因素。随着人均收入的提高,城市化率不断增大,城市化速度先增加后降低,城市人口由高密度居住向低密度居住转变。随着工业品运输成本的提高,聚集力不断增强,城市化率不断提高,城市人口居住密度提高,随着农产品运输成本的提高,城市化过程中的分散力增强,城市的范围、城市总人口和城市化率都呈现出明显的下降趋势。无论考虑哪种因素,农村劳动力向城市流动的障碍都是限制城市化和城市发展的重要因素。劳动力从乡村向城市的流动障碍越大,城市化的进程越缓慢。
劳动力流动、资本流动、资本积累、技术外溢是造成城市之间产业份额差异的直接原因。即使劳动力在城市间不流动,企业间的投入产出联系也会导致产业的集聚和核心边缘结构的形成。通过控制贸易自由化和知识溢出效应可以调整在城市之间的一体化进程中产业聚集的规模。两个城市相对工资的差异和税收竞争可以促进产业在城市之间的扩散,不过这种扩散是有条件的。
经过实证研究,长江三角洲地区的城市中上海的首位度较高,但是其他高位次城市规模不很突出,中间位序的城镇较多,中小城市比重大。通过面板数据分析可知,新经济地理学广泛关注的变量工业品支出份额、工业品贸易成本和农产品贸易成本对长三角地区的城市化有很强的解释能力,进而通过工业品支出份额与人均收入的关系可以说明经济发展水平对城市化水平产生影响。
With the development of nowaday economy, the continuous development and improvement of urban and urban system are important driving forces to impact and promote economic development. The central city and urban system are the key factors to improve the competitiveness and economy growth of a region. All the countries in the world have achieved rapid economic development in the process of urbanization, and also faced the various issues brought about by urbanization. China has already entered a period of rapid development of urbanization, and what kind of urbanization pattern China should adopt becomes a controversial topic in China's theory field.
Absorbing Marshall's externality theory, Myrdal's circular causality theory, Arthur's path dependency theory and using Dixit and Stiglitz's Monopolistic Competition model, the new economic geography theory establishes a series of models, in which it integrates the increasing returns of firm level and external economies into a general equilibrium framework, so that we can easily study space issues within the framework of mainstream economics. Making use of new economy geography theory, we can explore the emergence, development and differentiation of the cities from the perspective of the endogenous theory, and study the inherent relationships of the urban system evolution and the dynamic process of industrial transfer.
In the development process of urbanization, the labours are mobile factors. In order to achieve utility maximization, the labours move to high-income or low-cost regions. In this process, the agglomeration forces and dispersion forces operate simultaneously. The agglomeration forces come from both the attraction of big market in center city to firms, and the saving of living cost by proximity of workers to urban markets. The local market effect and living cost effect form circular cumulative causatity, which prompt labour to agglomerate in urban area. Dispersion forces on the one hand originate from the market crowding effect causing by competition of the frims, on the other hand come from agricultural transport costs and the dependence of agricultural production on land and.
In this study, on basis of the traditional theory of industry agglomeration and urban development, the author reviews the new economic geography. In the new economic geography framework, the paper uses market potential function established by Fujita, Krugman and Venables to explain the inherent mechanism for the emergence and growth of a city. The stability of a single city, the conditions to create a new city and the factors affecting urban development are discussed. Then the impact of the limited mobility of labor on urban development is further discussed. The auther takes advantage of new economic geography theory to explain the direct reasons of the industry differences between cities, and tries to find how to reverse the difference. The empirical analysis is based on the data of Yangtze River Delta area.
Both the emergence of new cities and the expansion of the original city size are subject to the changes in population size and location decisions of firms and labours. If population is small, the formation of new cities is difficult; if population is large, the existing urban system can easily be destroyed and form a new city. When there are two major cities nearby, if they are not in division of high degree, the competition for resources between the two cities will be very intense.
Level of economic development impacts of city size. When the level of economic development is low and the population size is small, if there is a new city, the city's population size and density of industrial activity will be small. With the increase in per capita income, the urban area and population is increasing, and shows the trend to accelerate growth. The original city enhanced its advantage and the stability is strengthened. With the urban population further growth, urbanization appears as the expansion of urban size and the increase of population density in the original city in a period. When the level of economic development is high, the big city-oriented pattern will be the main mode of urbanization.
Level of economic development, industrial and agricultural goods transport costs and labor mobility are the key factors to affect the level of urbanization and urban development. With the increase in per capita incomes, urbanization level is increasing, and the speed of urbanization increases and then decreases, while the residents in city live in high-density firstly and then in low-density. With the improvement of industrial goods transport costs, agglomeration forces continue increasing, and urbanization level and urban population density increases. With the transport costs of agricultural products increasing, the disperse forces increase in the process of urbanization. And the city's size, the total urban population and the urbanization rate have emerged as a downward trend. No matter what kind of factors are considered, the limited mobility of rural labor to urban will restrict urbanization and urban development. The larger migration barriers of labour from rural to urban are, the slower the process of urbanization will be.
Labor mobility, capital flows, capital accumulation and technology spillover are the direct causes to the difference in cities industry share. Even if labors do not flow between cities, input-output linkages between firms can also lead to industry cluster and the core-periphery structure. The industry agglomeration scale can be adjusted by controlling the trade liberalization and knowledge spillovers with the integration process between the cities. The relative wage difference and tax competition between two cities can promote industry diffuses between the cities. But this kind of diffuse is conditional.
By empirical research, Shanghai is the first-degree primate city in the Yangtze River Delta area, but the other primate cities are not very prominent. There are many cities and towns in the middle rank, and the share of the medium and small cities is big. By panel data analysis, industrial goods expenditure share, the trade cost of industrial goods and agricultural products, which are the important variables in new economic geography, have very strong explanatory powers to urbanization of Yangtze River Delta area. And then the impact of the economic development level on urbanization is illustrated by the relationship between industrial goods expenditure share and per capita income.
引文
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58 Hsu Mei-Ling. Chinese Cites:Controlled Growth and Employment Problems. Urban Geography,1986,7 (4): 336-369
59 Chen Aimin, Coulson N. E. Determinants of Urban Migration:Evidence From Chinese Cities. Urban Studies, 2002,39(12):2189-2197.
60 Hu Dapeng, Trade, Rural-urban Migration, and Regional Income Disparity in Developing Countries:a Spatial General Equilibrium Model Inspired by the Case of China. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2002(32): 329.
61王红霞.王桂新市场开放进程中的工业企业集聚与人口城市化——长三角地区人口城市化的动因探析(1984-2002)市场与人口分析,2005,11(5):1-12
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66钱颖一.理解现代经济学.经济社会体制比较,2002年第2期
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73尤斯凯利·梅基.假设问题的重新定向.见R.E.巴克豪斯.经济学方法论的新趋势.北京：经济科学出版社,2000
74保罗·克鲁格曼.发展、地理学与经济理论.北京：北京大学出版社,中国人民大学出版社,2000：37-39
75 Armin Schmutzler. The New Economic Geographv. Journal of Economic Survey,1999,13(4)
76 Brakman, S., Garretsen, H., Gigengack, R., Marrewijk, C.V. and.Wagenvoort, R. Congestion and Industrial Location, mimeo, University of Groningen.1994
77 Elizondo. L. and Krugman, P. Trade Policy and the Third-World Metropolis. Journal of Development Economics,1996,49:137-50
78 Asilis, C. M. and Rivera-Batiz, L. A. Geography, trade patterns and economic policy. In The Location of Economic Activity:New Theories and Evedence, Consorcio da Zona Franca de Vigo and CEPR,1994
79 Ades, A. F. and E. L. Glaeser. Trade and Circuses:Explaining Urban Giants. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995,110:195-227
80 Hanson, G. H. Increasin return and the Regional structure of wage. In The Location of Economic Activity: New Theories and Evidence, Consorcio da Zona Franca de Vigo and CEPR,1994
81 Henderson, J. V. Ways to think about urban concentration:neoclassical urban systems versus the new economic geography. International Regional Science Review,1996,19,21-36; Isserman, A. M. It's obvious, it's wrong, and anyway they said it years ago? Paul Krugman on Large Cities. International Regional Science Review,1996,19:37-48
82参见Krugman, P. Geography and trade. MIT Press,1991,附录部分
83 Gali, J. Expectations-driven spatial fluctuations. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1995,25:1-19
84 Venables, A. Equilibrium Location of Vertically Linked Industries. International Economic Review,1996,37: 341-359
85 Krugman, P. and Venables, T. Globalization and the inequality of national. Quarterly journal of economics, 1995,110:857-880
86 Krugman, P. and Venables, T. Intergration, specialization, and adjustment. European Economic Review,1996, 40:959-968.
87 Puga, D. The Rise and Fall of Regional Inequalities. European Economic Review,1999,43:303-334
88参见安虎森.空间经济学教程.经济科学出版社,2006年12月
89 Ottaviano G I P, Tabuchi T,Thisse J F. Agglomeration and trade revisited. International Economic Review, 2002(43):409-435
90参见李国平,张杰飞.基于OTT框架下的新经济地理模型评析.西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008年3月
91 Krugman, P. Geography and trade. MIT Press,1991, p2
92参见安虎森.空间经济学原理.经济科学出版社,2005：12-15
93参见Baldwin, R., Forslid, R., Martin, P., Ottaviano, G., and Robert-Nicoud, F. Economic Geography and Public Policy, Princeton University Press,2003:29
94参见Baldwin, R., Forslid, R., Martin, P., Ottaviano, G., and Robert-Nicoud, F. Economic Geography and Public Policy, Princeton University Press,2003:29
95[英]诺斯.制度变迁理论纲要——在北京大学中国经济研究中心成立大会上的讲演.载于《经济学与中国经济改革》,上海人民出版社,1995：3
96 Fujita, M., Krugman, P. and Venables, A. J. The Spatial Economy:Cities, Regions, and International Trade. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1999.
97 Helpman, E. "The size of Region" in D. Pines, E. Sodka, and I. Zilcha (eds.). Topic in Public Economics. Cambridge University Press,1998
98 Brakman, S., Garretsen, H., Gigengack, R., Marrewijk, C.V. and.Wagenvoort, R. Congestion and Industrial Location, mimeo, University of Groningen,1994
99 Tabuchi T. Agglomeration and dispersion:a synthesis of Alonso and Krugman. Journal of Urban Economics, 1998,44:333-35
100陈良文,杨开忠.集聚与分散：新经济地理学模型与城市内部空间结构、外部规模经济效应的整合研究.经济学(季刊),2007年10月
101 Fujita M., Krugman P. When is the economy monocentric? Von Thunen and Chamberlin unified. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1995,25:505-528
102 Helsley R. W. and Strange W. C. Matching and Agglomeration Economies in a System of Cities. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1990,20(2):189-212
103 Henderson J. V. and Becker R. Political Economy of City Size and Formation. Journal of Urban Economics, 2000.48:453-484
104 Fujita, Masahisa. and Tomoya Mori. Structural Stability and Evolution of Urban Systems. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1997,27:399-442
105 Fujita, M., Krugman, P. and Venables, A. J. The Spatial Economy:Cities, Regions, and International Trade. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1999
106 Fujita M., Krugman P. and Mori T. On the Evolution of Hierarchical Urban Systems, European Economic Review,1999,43:209-251
107 Black D. and Henderson J. V. Urban Evolution in the USA. Journal of Economic Geography,2003,3 (4): 343-372
108 Tabuchi T. Agglomeration and dispersion:a synthesis of Alonso and Krugman. Journal of Urban Economics, 1998,44:333-35
109 Alonso Villar, O. Large metropolises in the Third World:An explanation. Urban Studies,2001,38:1359-1371
110 Elizondo. L. and Krugman, P. Trade Policy and the Third-World Metropolis. Journal of Development Economics,1996,49:137-50.
111 Jaffe, A. B., Trajtenberg, M. and Henderson, R. Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers an Evidenced by Patent Citations. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1993,CVIII:577-598
112 Ellison, G. and Glaeser, E. L. Geographic Concentration in U. S. Manufacturing Industries:A Dartboard Approach. Journal of Political Economy,1997,105(5):889-927
113 Henderson, J.V. The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth:The So-What Question. Journal of Economic Growth,2003,8(1):47-71; Rosenthal S. S. and Strange W. C. Geography, Industrial Organization, and Agglomeration. Review of Economics and Statistics,2003,LXXXV(2):377-393
114 Black D. and Henderson J. V. Urban Evolution in the USA. Journal of Economic Geography,2003,3 (4): 343-372
115证明过程可参见,藤田、克鲁格曼和维纳布尔斯.空间经济学,(梁琦译).中国人民大学出版社,2005：163
116 Arthur O'sullivan. Urban Economics. McGraw-Hill,2000
117 Christaller, Walter. Central Places in Southern Germany. Prentice Hall,1966; and Losch August. The Economics of Location. Yale University Press,1954.
Fujita, M., Krugman, P. and Venables, A. J. The Spatial Economy:Cities, Regions, and International Trade. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1999
119 Fujita, M., Krugman. P. and Venables, A. J. The Spatial Economy:Cities, Regions, and International Trade. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1999:133-180
121根据杨小凯的观点,生产中的分工足够发达或规模经济及交易效率足够低,则可以形成多中心城市体系。请参考杨小凯,黄有光.专业化与经济组织,(张玉纲译).经济科学出版社,1999：330-334
123藤田,克鲁格曼,维纳布尔斯.空间经济学——城市、区域与国际贸易,(梁琦译).北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：224
124该假设使我们的分析集中关注工业品支出和产业转移,而忽略人们对农产品的消费的影响。我们将在本节的后面考虑放宽这一假设会带来什么影响。
125 Robert-Nicoud, F. A simple geography model with vertical linkages and capital mobility. mimeo, London School of Economics,2002
126我们将模型的一些证明过程略过,具体的证明可以参照安虎森.空间经济学原理.经济科学出版社,2005年12月,第八章的内容。
127在D-C框架中,规模弹性可以表示为MC/AC=1-1/σ,因为MC/AC越小,规模经济越大,MC/AC的值与σ同向变化,所以,规模经济与σ反向变化。
128鲍德温等证明了φS<φB的结论,参见Baldwin, R., Forslid, R., Martin, P., Ottaviano, G., and Robert-Nicoud, F. Economic Geography and Public Policy. Princeton University Press,2003.49
129在我国的户籍制度限制下,一个城市的普通农业人口较难成为另一个城市的非农业人口。我国按照非农业人口/总户籍人口统计的城市化水平大体可以反映这种没有考虑普通劳动者跨市流动,而由乡村人口向城市的流动所导致的城市化。
130 Ottaviano, G. I. P. Models of new economic geography':Factor mobility vs. vertical linkages, mimeo. Graduate Institute of International Studies,2002
131国家统计局.新中国60周年系列报告之十：城市社会经济发展日新月异.国家统计局网站
133国家统计局.长江和珠江三角洲及港澳特别行政区统计年鉴.中国统计出版社,2008
134同上,
1352007年,国家GDP为249529.9亿元,来源于国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.中国统计出版社,2008
136本数据为年末常住人口的加总。来源于《江苏省统计年鉴》,《浙江省统计年鉴》,《上海市统计年鉴》,2009年
137本数据为上海市2008年末常住人口,来源于《上海市统计年鉴》,2009年
138根据《江苏省统计年鉴》,《浙江省统计年鉴》,《上海市统计年鉴》2009年计算得出
139由于数据的限制,这部分是以上海、江苏、浙江一市两省的广义长三角数据为基础的。
140本数据为2007年数据,根据《中国城市统计年鉴》2008年市辖区人口计算得出。
141为了统计上的连贯性,这部分长三角的讨论是以长三角16市及其县级市为标准的。
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49安虎森,朱妍.产业集聚理论及其进展.南开经济研究,2003年第3期
50 Lewis W A. Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor. Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies,1954,22(2):139-191
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52 Todaro Michael P. A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries. American Economic Review.1969.59:138-148.
53 Jorgenson Dale W. "The Development of a Dual Economy", The Economic Journal,1961,71:309-334.
54 Dixit A and Stiglitz J E. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity", American Economi Review,1977,67(3):252-284.
55 Andersson, Fredrik & Burgess, Simon & Lane, Julia I. Cities, matching and the productivity gains of agglomeration. Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier,2007, vol.61(1):112-128
56赵红军.交易效率、城市化与经济发展：一个城市化经济学分析框架及其在中国的应用上海人民出版社,2005
57 Li Haizheng, Zahniser S. The Determinants of Temporary Rural-to-Urban Migration in China. Urban Studies, 2002,39 (12):2219-2235
58 Hsu Mei-Ling. Chinese Cites:Controlled Growth and Employment Problems. Urban Geography,1986,7 (4): 336-369
59 Chen Aimin, Coulson N. E. Determinants of Urban Migration:Evidence From Chinese Cities. Urban Studies, 2002,39(12):2189-2197.
60 Hu Dapeng, Trade, Rural-urban Migration, and Regional Income Disparity in Developing Countries:a Spatial General Equilibrium Model Inspired by the Case of China. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2002(32): 329.
61王红霞.王桂新市场开放进程中的工业企业集聚与人口城市化——长三角地区人口城市化的动因探析(1984-2002)市场与人口分析,2005,11(5):1-12
62 Ohlin, B. Interregional and International Trade. Harvard University Press. Cambridge, MA,1933:141-142
63斯蒂格勒.产业组织与政府管制.上海三联书店,1996：23
64殷德生.报酬递增与市场结构难题的研究进展.当代财经,2006年第3期
65见傅沂.路径依赖经济学分析框架的演变——从新制度经济学到演化经济学.江苏社会科学,2008(3)：64
66钱颖一.理解现代经济学.经济社会体制比较,2002年第2期
67参见陈道江,周红.演化经济理论的渊源与发展.商业研究,2003年第24期
68贾根良.理解演化经济学.中国社会科学,2004年第2期
69李红刚.从均衡到演化：经济分析方法演进的一条道路.江苏社会科学,2004年第3期
70古诺.财富理论的数学原理的研究.商务印书馆,1994：38-39
71刘明国.对经济学数学化的反思——兼论数学在经济学中的应用边界.特区经济,2009(3)
72蒋满元.对现代经济学分析方法数学化取向问题的辩证剖析.重庆邮电大学学报(社会科学版),2009(3)：111
73尤斯凯利·梅基.假设问题的重新定向.见R.E.巴克豪斯.经济学方法论的新趋势.北京：经济科学出版社,2000
74保罗·克鲁格曼.发展、地理学与经济理论.北京：北京大学出版社,中国人民大学出版社,2000：37-39
75 Armin Schmutzler. The New Economic Geographv. Journal of Economic Survey,1999,13(4)
76 Brakman, S., Garretsen, H., Gigengack, R., Marrewijk, C.V. and.Wagenvoort, R. Congestion and Industrial Location, mimeo, University of Groningen.1994
77 Elizondo. L. and Krugman, P. Trade Policy and the Third-World Metropolis. Journal of Development Economics,1996,49:137-50
78 Asilis, C. M. and Rivera-Batiz, L. A. Geography, trade patterns and economic policy. In The Location of Economic Activity:New Theories and Evedence, Consorcio da Zona Franca de Vigo and CEPR,1994
79 Ades, A. F. and E. L. Glaeser. Trade and Circuses:Explaining Urban Giants. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995,110:195-227
80 Hanson, G. H. Increasin return and the Regional structure of wage. In The Location of Economic Activity: New Theories and Evidence, Consorcio da Zona Franca de Vigo and CEPR,1994
81 Henderson, J. V. Ways to think about urban concentration:neoclassical urban systems versus the new economic geography. International Regional Science Review,1996,19,21-36; Isserman, A. M. It's obvious, it's wrong, and anyway they said it years ago? Paul Krugman on Large Cities. International Regional Science Review,1996,19:37-48
82参见Krugman, P. Geography and trade. MIT Press,1991,附录部分
83 Gali, J. Expectations-driven spatial fluctuations. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1995,25:1-19
84 Venables, A. Equilibrium Location of Vertically Linked Industries. International Economic Review,1996,37: 341-359
85 Krugman, P. and Venables, T. Globalization and the inequality of national. Quarterly journal of economics, 1995,110:857-880
86 Krugman, P. and Venables, T. Intergration, specialization, and adjustment. European Economic Review,1996, 40:959-968.
87 Puga, D. The Rise and Fall of Regional Inequalities. European Economic Review,1999,43:303-334
88参见安虎森.空间经济学教程.经济科学出版社,2006年12月
89 Ottaviano G I P, Tabuchi T,Thisse J F. Agglomeration and trade revisited. International Economic Review, 2002(43):409-435
90参见李国平,张杰飞.基于OTT框架下的新经济地理模型评析.西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008年3月
91 Krugman, P. Geography and trade. MIT Press,1991, p2
92参见安虎森.空间经济学原理.经济科学出版社,2005：12-15
93参见Baldwin, R., Forslid, R., Martin, P., Ottaviano, G., and Robert-Nicoud, F. Economic Geography and Public Policy, Princeton University Press,2003:29
94参见Baldwin, R., Forslid, R., Martin, P., Ottaviano, G., and Robert-Nicoud, F. Economic Geography and Public Policy, Princeton University Press,2003:29
95[英]诺斯.制度变迁理论纲要——在北京大学中国经济研究中心成立大会上的讲演.载于《经济学与中国经济改革》,上海人民出版社,1995：3
96 Fujita, M., Krugman, P. and Venables, A. J. The Spatial Economy:Cities, Regions, and International Trade. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1999.
97 Helpman, E. "The size of Region" in D. Pines, E. Sodka, and I. Zilcha (eds.). Topic in Public Economics. Cambridge University Press,1998
98 Brakman, S., Garretsen, H., Gigengack, R., Marrewijk, C.V. and.Wagenvoort, R. Congestion and Industrial Location, mimeo, University of Groningen,1994
99 Tabuchi T. Agglomeration and dispersion:a synthesis of Alonso and Krugman. Journal of Urban Economics, 1998,44:333-35
100陈良文,杨开忠.集聚与分散：新经济地理学模型与城市内部空间结构、外部规模经济效应的整合研究.经济学(季刊),2007年10月
101 Fujita M., Krugman P. When is the economy monocentric? Von Thunen and Chamberlin unified. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1995,25:505-528
102 Helsley R. W. and Strange W. C. Matching and Agglomeration Economies in a System of Cities. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1990,20(2):189-212
103 Henderson J. V. and Becker R. Political Economy of City Size and Formation. Journal of Urban Economics, 2000.48:453-484
104 Fujita, Masahisa. and Tomoya Mori. Structural Stability and Evolution of Urban Systems. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1997,27:399-442
105 Fujita, M., Krugman, P. and Venables, A. J. The Spatial Economy:Cities, Regions, and International Trade. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1999
106 Fujita M., Krugman P. and Mori T. On the Evolution of Hierarchical Urban Systems, European Economic Review,1999,43:209-251
107 Black D. and Henderson J. V. Urban Evolution in the USA. Journal of Economic Geography,2003,3 (4): 343-372
108 Tabuchi T. Agglomeration and dispersion:a synthesis of Alonso and Krugman. Journal of Urban Economics, 1998,44:333-35
109 Alonso Villar, O. Large metropolises in the Third World:An explanation. Urban Studies,2001,38:1359-1371
110 Elizondo. L. and Krugman, P. Trade Policy and the Third-World Metropolis. Journal of Development Economics,1996,49:137-50.
111 Jaffe, A. B., Trajtenberg, M. and Henderson, R. Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers an Evidenced by Patent Citations. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1993,CVIII:577-598
112 Ellison, G. and Glaeser, E. L. Geographic Concentration in U. S. Manufacturing Industries:A Dartboard Approach. Journal of Political Economy,1997,105(5):889-927
113 Henderson, J.V. The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth:The So-What Question. Journal of Economic Growth,2003,8(1):47-71; Rosenthal S. S. and Strange W. C. Geography, Industrial Organization, and Agglomeration. Review of Economics and Statistics,2003,LXXXV(2):377-393
114 Black D. and Henderson J. V. Urban Evolution in the USA. Journal of Economic Geography,2003,3 (4): 343-372
115证明过程可参见,藤田、克鲁格曼和维纳布尔斯.空间经济学,(梁琦译).中国人民大学出版社,2005：163
116 Arthur O'sullivan. Urban Economics. McGraw-Hill,2000
117 Christaller, Walter. Central Places in Southern Germany. Prentice Hall,1966; and Losch August. The Economics of Location. Yale University Press,1954.
Fujita, M., Krugman, P. and Venables, A. J. The Spatial Economy:Cities, Regions, and International Trade. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1999
119 Fujita, M., Krugman. P. and Venables, A. J. The Spatial Economy:Cities, Regions, and International Trade. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1999:133-180
121根据杨小凯的观点,生产中的分工足够发达或规模经济及交易效率足够低,则可以形成多中心城市体系。请参考杨小凯,黄有光.专业化与经济组织,(张玉纲译).经济科学出版社,1999：330-334
123藤田,克鲁格曼,维纳布尔斯.空间经济学——城市、区域与国际贸易,(梁琦译).北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：224
124该假设使我们的分析集中关注工业品支出和产业转移,而忽略人们对农产品的消费的影响。我们将在本节的后面考虑放宽这一假设会带来什么影响。
125 Robert-Nicoud, F. A simple geography model with vertical linkages and capital mobility. mimeo, London School of Economics,2002
126我们将模型的一些证明过程略过,具体的证明可以参照安虎森.空间经济学原理.经济科学出版社,2005年12月,第八章的内容。
127在D-C框架中,规模弹性可以表示为MC/AC=1-1/σ,因为MC/AC越小,规模经济越大,MC/AC的值与σ同向变化,所以,规模经济与σ反向变化。
128鲍德温等证明了φS<φB的结论,参见Baldwin, R., Forslid, R., Martin, P., Ottaviano, G., and Robert-Nicoud, F. Economic Geography and Public Policy. Princeton University Press,2003.49
129在我国的户籍制度限制下,一个城市的普通农业人口较难成为另一个城市的非农业人口。我国按照非农业人口/总户籍人口统计的城市化水平大体可以反映这种没有考虑普通劳动者跨市流动,而由乡村人口向城市的流动所导致的城市化。
130 Ottaviano, G. I. P. Models of new economic geography':Factor mobility vs. vertical linkages, mimeo. Graduate Institute of International Studies,2002
131国家统计局.新中国60周年系列报告之十：城市社会经济发展日新月异.国家统计局网站
133国家统计局.长江和珠江三角洲及港澳特别行政区统计年鉴.中国统计出版社,2008
134同上,
1352007年,国家GDP为249529.9亿元,来源于国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.中国统计出版社,2008
136本数据为年末常住人口的加总。来源于《江苏省统计年鉴》,《浙江省统计年鉴》,《上海市统计年鉴》,2009年
137本数据为上海市2008年末常住人口,来源于《上海市统计年鉴》,2009年
138根据《江苏省统计年鉴》,《浙江省统计年鉴》,《上海市统计年鉴》2009年计算得出
139由于数据的限制,这部分是以上海、江苏、浙江一市两省的广义长三角数据为基础的。
140本数据为2007年数据,根据《中国城市统计年鉴》2008年市辖区人口计算得出。
141为了统计上的连贯性,这部分长三角的讨论是以长三角16市及其县级市为标准的。
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