中国经济增长波动的多尺度分析及其预测
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摘要
本文运用经验模态方法(EMD),一方面从时间角度对中国1953-2002年经济增长波动进行多尺度分析和预测,同时分析主要尺度下影响中国经济增长波动的原因;另一方面从空间的角度来看,区域经济增长的不平衡不仅会引起宏观经济的波动,而且会造成区域经济发展水平的不平衡,同时还分析了引起区域间经济增长不平衡的原因。研究结果表明:
(1)运用EMD方法对中国50年来经济增长波动进行分解可得出5个尺度和一个趋势量,其中主要以短期波动的3-4年尺度、长期波动的约60年尺度和经济增长趋势量为主。将中国GDP增长率的IMF5与趋势叠加后可以看出,在60年尺度下中国经济还将持续增长20-30年;将中国GDP增长率的IMF1与趋势叠加后可以看出,在3-4年的小尺度下,预计中国经济在未来5.10还将保持增长的势头,但经济增长速度将会放慢。
(2)选取影响中国经济增长波动的主要指标,采用因子分析,对中国经济增长波动的小尺度、大尺度和趋势进行研究,发现在小尺度下影响中国经济增长波动的因子较多,而从大尺度和趋势来看影响中国经济增长波动的因子则相对集中;但无论是从小尺度、大尺度还是趋势来看,生产要素的投入及其结构和效率都是影响经济增长波动的主要因素,尤其是产业结构、财政收支及其基本建设支出、交通运输和通讯流通量、主要能源及能源利用效率。
(3)通过对50年来中国分省GDP增长差异加权变异系数EMD分解可以看出,其波动存在5个尺度和一个趋势,其中以3.67年和6.86年尺度为主。同时将50年来不同尺度下全国GDP增长率与分省GDP增长差异加权变异系数EMD分解后的数据进行比较,可以看出虽然在小尺度下两者走向有差异,但在20年、40年尺度以及趋势中两者走向却具有一致性,这说明从长期来看区域间经济增长不平衡引起了宏观经济增长的波动。
(4)通过对50年来中国分省人均GDP差异的加权变异系数进行EMD分解后可以看出,区域间经济发展水平差异的波动主要以60年尺度、17.5年尺度和趋势为主。从趋势上看,区域间经济发展水平的差距在逐渐扩大:从IMF4与趋势叠加图的60年尺度上看,20世纪60年代到90年代区域间经济发展水平的差距呈缩小的趋势,而90年代以后则呈逐渐扩大的趋势:将20年左右尺度上的IMF3与趋势叠加,可以看出1984年以后区域间经济发展水平差异逐渐扩大,但差距扩大的趋势不显著;如果从更小的尺度上看,区域间经济发展水平的差距有一定的波动性。
Based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) , from the angle of time, the thesis analyses and forecasts the multi-scale characteristics of China's economic growth fluctuation from 1953 to 2002 and gives the reasons affecting China's economic growth fluctuation in the main scales. On the other hand, from the angle of space, the thesis indicates that the unbalance of regional growth leads to the fluctuating of the whole economic and the unbalance of regional development, and further analyses the reasons resulting in the unbalance of regional growth. The research points out:(1) Utilizing EMD to decompose the fluctuation of China's economic growth since 1953, five scales and one trend are received, mainly including the 3 or 4-year scale named short-term fluctuation, 60-year scale named long-term fluctuation and the trend of economic growth. After pulsing the Intrinsic Mode Function 5 (IMF5) and the trend of China's GDP growth rate, it can be seen that China's economic growth will go on 20 or 30 years in the 60-year scale. After pulsing the IMF1 and the trend of China's GDP growth rate, in the 3 or 4-year small scale, it can be forecasted that China's economic growth will keep increasing in the 5-10 years, but the speed of economic growth will be slower than before.(2) Selecting the main indexes affecting China's economic growth fluctuation and utilizing the factor analysis to research small scale, large scale and trend of China's economic growth fluctuation, it can be found that there are many factors affecting China's economic growth fluctuation in small scale, but in large scale and trend, the factors affecting China's economic growth fluctuation relatively centralize. However, regardless of small scale, large scale or trend, the input of factors of production and its structure and efficiency, especially industrial structure, financial income and expenses and its essensial constructural expenses, trsportation and communication, key energy and its ultizing effiency are the main factors affecting China's economic growth fluctuation.(3) Based on the analysis of weighted variability coefficient of the difference of GDP growth by region in China since 1953 with EMD, the fluctuation comprises five scales and one trend, among them, 3.67-year scale and 6.86-year scale are as the main body. At the same time, compared it with GDP growth rate countrywide deposed with EMD, it can be found that, although their changes exist some difference in small scale, their changes are identical in 20-year scale, 40-year scale and trend, which shows that the unbalance of regional economic growth brings the fluctuation of macro-economic growth.(4) Based on the analysis of weighted variability coefficient of the difference of per capita GDP by region in China since 1953 with EMD, the fluctuation of regional development difference takes 60-year scale, 17.5-year scale and trend as the principal part. In the scale of trend, regional development difference is expanding; In the scale of 60-year scale, the regional difference between the 1960s and the 1990s in the twenty century is shrinking; Pulsing IMF3 with trend, one can find that regional difference has been enlarging after 1984, but it is not so obvious. Supposed to analyze from the point of even smaller scale, regional difference has a definite characteristic of fluctuation.(5) Based on the decomposition of weighted variability coefficient of employed persons,
investment, electricity and grain yield by region in China since 1953 with EMD, it can be seen that regional difference fluctuation of employed persons takes 37-year scale and 58-year scale as the main body, that of investment takes 22-year scale and 58-year scale as the main body, that of electricity takes 40-year scale and trend as the main body, and that of grain yield takes 8-year scale and 32-year scale as the main body.(6) Compared weighted variability coefficient of the difference of GDP growth by region with that of each factors by region, from 10-year short-term scale, regional GDP growth difference is mainly affected by the input difference of grain and electricity. From 20 to 40-year middle-length scale, regional GDP growth difference is consistent with the fluctuation difference of investment, employed persons and electricity. From long-term trend, regional GDP growth difference is basically consistent with regional difference of main factors input. Regional GDP growth difference is the compositive result of regional difference of various factors input. Similary, regional difference of main factors input is also the result of regional economic growth.(7) Compared weighted variability coefficient of per capita GDP difference by region with that of each factors by region, in small scale, the difference of regional economic development is mainly affected by regional difference of employed persons, investment and grain yield. From middle-length scale, the difference of regional economic development is mainly affected by regional difference of employed persons, investment and electricity. In addition, the difference of regional economic development also affects regional difference of investment etc.(8) Set up the compositive indexes of urbanization to research regional difference of urbanization in China since 1978. The research shows that urbanization is closely connected with regional economic development all along, and the standard and scope of regional economic development are the important factors to reflect and affect the level of regional urbanization. The main factors reflecting standard of urbanization have changed since 1978. In the 1980's urban centricity was the dominant factor and in the 1990's was regional development, and at present the interaction of urban and region is playing a leading role.(9) Utilizing dynamics method to forecast the different projects of supply and demand in energy sources shows that the contradiction between supply and demand in energy sources is still sharp. Hence, it is necessary to increase the efficiency in use of energy sources, and adjust industrial structure to decrease the consumption of energy sources, and constantly exploit new resources to meet the increasing need of source consumption so as to realize the sustainable development of supply and demand in energy sources.The thesis researches China's economic growth fluctuation with EMD. It not only enriches the theories in economic growth, business cycle and unbalance growth, but also is full of signification to guide the sustainable development of China's economy.
(1)运用EMD方法对中国50年来经济增长波动进行分解可得出5个尺度和一个趋势量,其中主要以短期波动的3-4年尺度、长期波动的约60年尺度和经济增长趋势量为主。将中国GDP增长率的IMF5与趋势叠加后可以看出,在60年尺度下中国经济还将持续增长20-30年;将中国GDP增长率的IMF1与趋势叠加后可以看出,在3-4年的小尺度下,预计中国经济在未来5.10还将保持增长的势头,但经济增长速度将会放慢。
(2)选取影响中国经济增长波动的主要指标,采用因子分析,对中国经济增长波动的小尺度、大尺度和趋势进行研究,发现在小尺度下影响中国经济增长波动的因子较多,而从大尺度和趋势来看影响中国经济增长波动的因子则相对集中;但无论是从小尺度、大尺度还是趋势来看,生产要素的投入及其结构和效率都是影响经济增长波动的主要因素,尤其是产业结构、财政收支及其基本建设支出、交通运输和通讯流通量、主要能源及能源利用效率。
(3)通过对50年来中国分省GDP增长差异加权变异系数EMD分解可以看出,其波动存在5个尺度和一个趋势,其中以3.67年和6.86年尺度为主。同时将50年来不同尺度下全国GDP增长率与分省GDP增长差异加权变异系数EMD分解后的数据进行比较,可以看出虽然在小尺度下两者走向有差异,但在20年、40年尺度以及趋势中两者走向却具有一致性,这说明从长期来看区域间经济增长不平衡引起了宏观经济增长的波动。
(4)通过对50年来中国分省人均GDP差异的加权变异系数进行EMD分解后可以看出,区域间经济发展水平差异的波动主要以60年尺度、17.5年尺度和趋势为主。从趋势上看,区域间经济发展水平的差距在逐渐扩大:从IMF4与趋势叠加图的60年尺度上看,20世纪60年代到90年代区域间经济发展水平的差距呈缩小的趋势,而90年代以后则呈逐渐扩大的趋势:将20年左右尺度上的IMF3与趋势叠加,可以看出1984年以后区域间经济发展水平差异逐渐扩大,但差距扩大的趋势不显著;如果从更小的尺度上看,区域间经济发展水平的差距有一定的波动性。
Based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) , from the angle of time, the thesis analyses and forecasts the multi-scale characteristics of China's economic growth fluctuation from 1953 to 2002 and gives the reasons affecting China's economic growth fluctuation in the main scales. On the other hand, from the angle of space, the thesis indicates that the unbalance of regional growth leads to the fluctuating of the whole economic and the unbalance of regional development, and further analyses the reasons resulting in the unbalance of regional growth. The research points out:(1) Utilizing EMD to decompose the fluctuation of China's economic growth since 1953, five scales and one trend are received, mainly including the 3 or 4-year scale named short-term fluctuation, 60-year scale named long-term fluctuation and the trend of economic growth. After pulsing the Intrinsic Mode Function 5 (IMF5) and the trend of China's GDP growth rate, it can be seen that China's economic growth will go on 20 or 30 years in the 60-year scale. After pulsing the IMF1 and the trend of China's GDP growth rate, in the 3 or 4-year small scale, it can be forecasted that China's economic growth will keep increasing in the 5-10 years, but the speed of economic growth will be slower than before.(2) Selecting the main indexes affecting China's economic growth fluctuation and utilizing the factor analysis to research small scale, large scale and trend of China's economic growth fluctuation, it can be found that there are many factors affecting China's economic growth fluctuation in small scale, but in large scale and trend, the factors affecting China's economic growth fluctuation relatively centralize. However, regardless of small scale, large scale or trend, the input of factors of production and its structure and efficiency, especially industrial structure, financial income and expenses and its essensial constructural expenses, trsportation and communication, key energy and its ultizing effiency are the main factors affecting China's economic growth fluctuation.(3) Based on the analysis of weighted variability coefficient of the difference of GDP growth by region in China since 1953 with EMD, the fluctuation comprises five scales and one trend, among them, 3.67-year scale and 6.86-year scale are as the main body. At the same time, compared it with GDP growth rate countrywide deposed with EMD, it can be found that, although their changes exist some difference in small scale, their changes are identical in 20-year scale, 40-year scale and trend, which shows that the unbalance of regional economic growth brings the fluctuation of macro-economic growth.(4) Based on the analysis of weighted variability coefficient of the difference of per capita GDP by region in China since 1953 with EMD, the fluctuation of regional development difference takes 60-year scale, 17.5-year scale and trend as the principal part. In the scale of trend, regional development difference is expanding; In the scale of 60-year scale, the regional difference between the 1960s and the 1990s in the twenty century is shrinking; Pulsing IMF3 with trend, one can find that regional difference has been enlarging after 1984, but it is not so obvious. Supposed to analyze from the point of even smaller scale, regional difference has a definite characteristic of fluctuation.(5) Based on the decomposition of weighted variability coefficient of employed persons,
investment, electricity and grain yield by region in China since 1953 with EMD, it can be seen that regional difference fluctuation of employed persons takes 37-year scale and 58-year scale as the main body, that of investment takes 22-year scale and 58-year scale as the main body, that of electricity takes 40-year scale and trend as the main body, and that of grain yield takes 8-year scale and 32-year scale as the main body.(6) Compared weighted variability coefficient of the difference of GDP growth by region with that of each factors by region, from 10-year short-term scale, regional GDP growth difference is mainly affected by the input difference of grain and electricity. From 20 to 40-year middle-length scale, regional GDP growth difference is consistent with the fluctuation difference of investment, employed persons and electricity. From long-term trend, regional GDP growth difference is basically consistent with regional difference of main factors input. Regional GDP growth difference is the compositive result of regional difference of various factors input. Similary, regional difference of main factors input is also the result of regional economic growth.(7) Compared weighted variability coefficient of per capita GDP difference by region with that of each factors by region, in small scale, the difference of regional economic development is mainly affected by regional difference of employed persons, investment and grain yield. From middle-length scale, the difference of regional economic development is mainly affected by regional difference of employed persons, investment and electricity. In addition, the difference of regional economic development also affects regional difference of investment etc.(8) Set up the compositive indexes of urbanization to research regional difference of urbanization in China since 1978. The research shows that urbanization is closely connected with regional economic development all along, and the standard and scope of regional economic development are the important factors to reflect and affect the level of regional urbanization. The main factors reflecting standard of urbanization have changed since 1978. In the 1980's urban centricity was the dominant factor and in the 1990's was regional development, and at present the interaction of urban and region is playing a leading role.(9) Utilizing dynamics method to forecast the different projects of supply and demand in energy sources shows that the contradiction between supply and demand in energy sources is still sharp. Hence, it is necessary to increase the efficiency in use of energy sources, and adjust industrial structure to decrease the consumption of energy sources, and constantly exploit new resources to meet the increasing need of source consumption so as to realize the sustainable development of supply and demand in energy sources.The thesis researches China's economic growth fluctuation with EMD. It not only enriches the theories in economic growth, business cycle and unbalance growth, but also is full of signification to guide the sustainable development of China's economy.
引文
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