智能配电网自愈功能及其效益评价模型研究
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摘要
现代社会与数字经济的快速发展,对供电质量提出了更高的要求,以往人们并不太关注的短时停电和电压骤降等供电质量扰动,因其可能造成的巨大经济损失与社会影响成为突出的供电质量问题。智能配电网及其自愈功能的实施,能够显著地提高供电质量,减少因供电质量扰动造成的经济损失。然而,在其实施建设过程中,电力公司需要大量的建设投资。对其投资效益评价不仅要考虑电力公司本省的经济效益,而且必须要考虑用户减少的经济损失和由此带来的社会和环保等效益,对智能配电网自愈功能进行全面的效益分析。目前,国内外对智能配电网自愈功能的研究相对缺乏,对短时停电、电压骤降经济损失的研究还不够深入,还没有智能配电网自愈功能综合经济效益研究方面的公开报道。本文对智能配电网自愈功能及其经济效益评价模型与方法进行系统、深入的研究,具有重要的理论意义与工程应用价值。本文主要内容：
(1)智能配电网及其自愈功能研究。在综合分析国内外智能电网及自愈的研究成果的基础上,提出智能配电网及其自愈的定义及功能特征：并针对配电网故障特点及对供电质量的影响,重点研究了故障自愈功能的关键技术及其性能指标,提出了基于对等通信的分布式智能短路故障自愈控制技术和接地故障自愈的技术框架及全电气量补偿的接地故障自愈控制技术；从技术性能的角度构建故障自愈的评价指标。
(2)建立了短时停电经济损失估算模型。分析了短时停电产生的原因及其影响用电设备正常工作的机理,总结分析短时停电的特性及对用户造成的危害,研究短时停电的经济损失,使用综合权重灰色关联评价方法对用户敏感度进行评估,提出了基于问卷调查的短时停电经济损失的估算模型。
(3)建立了电压骤降经济损失估算模型。对电压骤降的危害进行了分析总结,应用模糊推理理论来推理电压骤降的中断概率,利用转换因子将电压骤降次数换算为等值的用户中断次数,提出了基于模糊逻辑推理确定电压骤降中断概率的电压骤降损失估算模型。
(4)对供电质量扰动的经济损失进行了风险评价。为了更进一步分析供电质量扰动对现代社会的影响,引入了风险评价的概念对供电质量扰动经济损失进行评价研究,提出了基于柯尔莫哥洛夫检验法的供电质量扰动损失风险VaR指标的构建方法,从风险的角度评价城市电网供电质量扰动经济损失的严重程度。
(5)构建智能配电网自愈功能的综合效益评价模型。在对智能配电网自愈功能的经济属性分析的基础上,结合外部性效益和综合评价理论,构建智能配电网自愈功能的综合效益评价指标体系和评价模型。基于对其外部性效益的总结,将其综合效益归结为技术效益、经济效益、社会效益、环境效益和实用性效益五个方面,构建了一个两层的评价指标体系；结合资产全寿命周期管理理论,提出了基于三角模糊层次分析法赋权的综合效益全寿命周期评价模型并阐述综合评价的过程。
(6)根据短时停电损失估算模型、电压骤降损失估算模型、供电质量扰动经济损失风险评价方法和综合效益的全寿命周期评价模型对X城市智能配电网示范建设项目效益进行了实证分析。结果表明,这些估算模型可行而且较为全面地反映了短时停电和电压骤降造成的经济损失,而供电质量扰动风险VaR指标较好地反映了城市供电质量扰动损失的严重程度,综合评价方法考虑了自愈功能的综合效益在寿命周期内的变动,做到了全面客观的评价。各估算模型和指标可作为智能配电网及其自愈功能的建设和优化的评价与决策参考。
良好的自愈能力是智能配电网的关键特征。本文明确了智能配电网的自愈功能,提出了短路故障自愈与接地故障自愈控制的新方法,给出了短时停电、电压骤降经济损失估算模型和供电质量扰动经济损失风险评价方法,建立了智能配电网自愈功能的综合效益评价指标体系和评价模型。研究成果对于推动智能电网的建设与健康发展,具有十分重要的意义。
With the development of economics and technology, high-technology instruments are widely applied in modern society, power consumers become sensitive to power supply quality disturbance,which will cause enormous social and economic affects.By strength the self-healing function of distribution grid, the disturbance of power supply and economic loss could be decreased significantly.While,it need large investment,the evaluation of investment results includes economic,environmental and social benefits. Then, the construction and application of city self-healing distribution grid generate a lot of positive externality.Thus,it's necessary to evaluate the economic and comprehensive benefits of self-healing function of distribution grid. At present,it lacks of the research on self-healing of smart grid,short-time outage,economic loss of voltage-sag and economic benefits of self-healing function publicly.While in this paper,the study took deepend on benefits evaluation and model systematically and deep show important theory meaning and project application value.There are6passages in this paper.
(1) The research on self-healing of smart grid.In this paper, it summarized the features of smart distribution grid and self-healing function,the realtionship between self-healing function and power supply disturbance was clarified.And then, it analyzed the key technology and indexes and promoted the technology framework of self-healing technology of distribution,grounding and whole electric compensation based on peer to peer communication.The technology evaluation indexes were built.
(2) The economic loss estimated model of short-time outage was created, it analyzed the formation and influence mechanism of short-term outage and the essential of power quality disturbance,the harm and feature of short-term outage to power consumers are summarized. The sensitive power consmers of short-term outage were selected by method of comprehensive weight grey correlation, it referenced the estimation method of general power outage loss.Then considered questionnaire state of power consumers, the loss estimation model of short-term outage was built.
(3) The economic loss estimated model of voltage sag was built.After that, it researched the probability and damage of voltage sag/dip,including tolerance region of power consumers'sensitive instruments and operation process.The uncertainty of various tolerance region was cleared.It change the times of voltage sag into the equal times of consumer power outage.By the uncertainty nature, it created the estimation method of voltage sag/dip loss by fuzzy logic reasoning.
(4) Taking risk evaluation on the economic loss of power supply disturbance.During the evaluation research on economic loss of power supply disturbance, risk assessment method was uniquely used and VaR index method of power supply disturbance was brought by Kolmogorov test method.By this way, it remarked the severity and possibility of economic loss caused by power supply disturbance from risk point.
(5) The comprehensive benefits evaluation model was built.And also, consider the economic feature of self-healing,it made research on the comprehensive benefits evaluation by theory of externality and comprehensive remark, the index system and evaluation model were built.The comprehensive benefits contains technology,economic,society,environment and application,it created a remark system by two sections. Meanwhile,it promoted the Life Cycle evaluation method of comprehensive benefits of self-healing distribution grid by triangular fuzzy-analysis hierarchy.
(6) By the evaluation model, it toke X city for example and analyzed its comprehensive benefits from self-healing distribution grid.The results showed that the power supply disturbance estimation model could be feasible and reflect various influence completely.The VaR index of power supply disturbance risk also could express the severity and possibility of short-term outage to city life.Besides,the Life Cycle evaluation method was useful to measure the comprehensive benefits of self-healing distribution grid.lt considered the variation of comprehensive benefits during the life cycle and made an objective and comprehensive evaluation.. In a word, these estimation models and indexes could become references for decision-making and evaluation,
The key feature of smart grid is good self-healing function.In this paper,it clarified the self-healing function, promoted new method of self-healing of short circuit fault and grounding fault, risk evaluation method,the economic loss estimated model of short outage and voltage sag.The comprehensive benefits evaluation indexes and model were built.These research results are meaningful to promoted the construction and healthy development of smart grid.
(1)智能配电网及其自愈功能研究。在综合分析国内外智能电网及自愈的研究成果的基础上,提出智能配电网及其自愈的定义及功能特征：并针对配电网故障特点及对供电质量的影响,重点研究了故障自愈功能的关键技术及其性能指标,提出了基于对等通信的分布式智能短路故障自愈控制技术和接地故障自愈的技术框架及全电气量补偿的接地故障自愈控制技术；从技术性能的角度构建故障自愈的评价指标。
(2)建立了短时停电经济损失估算模型。分析了短时停电产生的原因及其影响用电设备正常工作的机理,总结分析短时停电的特性及对用户造成的危害,研究短时停电的经济损失,使用综合权重灰色关联评价方法对用户敏感度进行评估,提出了基于问卷调查的短时停电经济损失的估算模型。
(3)建立了电压骤降经济损失估算模型。对电压骤降的危害进行了分析总结,应用模糊推理理论来推理电压骤降的中断概率,利用转换因子将电压骤降次数换算为等值的用户中断次数,提出了基于模糊逻辑推理确定电压骤降中断概率的电压骤降损失估算模型。
(4)对供电质量扰动的经济损失进行了风险评价。为了更进一步分析供电质量扰动对现代社会的影响,引入了风险评价的概念对供电质量扰动经济损失进行评价研究,提出了基于柯尔莫哥洛夫检验法的供电质量扰动损失风险VaR指标的构建方法,从风险的角度评价城市电网供电质量扰动经济损失的严重程度。
(5)构建智能配电网自愈功能的综合效益评价模型。在对智能配电网自愈功能的经济属性分析的基础上,结合外部性效益和综合评价理论,构建智能配电网自愈功能的综合效益评价指标体系和评价模型。基于对其外部性效益的总结,将其综合效益归结为技术效益、经济效益、社会效益、环境效益和实用性效益五个方面,构建了一个两层的评价指标体系；结合资产全寿命周期管理理论,提出了基于三角模糊层次分析法赋权的综合效益全寿命周期评价模型并阐述综合评价的过程。
(6)根据短时停电损失估算模型、电压骤降损失估算模型、供电质量扰动经济损失风险评价方法和综合效益的全寿命周期评价模型对X城市智能配电网示范建设项目效益进行了实证分析。结果表明,这些估算模型可行而且较为全面地反映了短时停电和电压骤降造成的经济损失,而供电质量扰动风险VaR指标较好地反映了城市供电质量扰动损失的严重程度,综合评价方法考虑了自愈功能的综合效益在寿命周期内的变动,做到了全面客观的评价。各估算模型和指标可作为智能配电网及其自愈功能的建设和优化的评价与决策参考。
良好的自愈能力是智能配电网的关键特征。本文明确了智能配电网的自愈功能,提出了短路故障自愈与接地故障自愈控制的新方法,给出了短时停电、电压骤降经济损失估算模型和供电质量扰动经济损失风险评价方法,建立了智能配电网自愈功能的综合效益评价指标体系和评价模型。研究成果对于推动智能电网的建设与健康发展,具有十分重要的意义。
With the development of economics and technology, high-technology instruments are widely applied in modern society, power consumers become sensitive to power supply quality disturbance,which will cause enormous social and economic affects.By strength the self-healing function of distribution grid, the disturbance of power supply and economic loss could be decreased significantly.While,it need large investment,the evaluation of investment results includes economic,environmental and social benefits. Then, the construction and application of city self-healing distribution grid generate a lot of positive externality.Thus,it's necessary to evaluate the economic and comprehensive benefits of self-healing function of distribution grid. At present,it lacks of the research on self-healing of smart grid,short-time outage,economic loss of voltage-sag and economic benefits of self-healing function publicly.While in this paper,the study took deepend on benefits evaluation and model systematically and deep show important theory meaning and project application value.There are6passages in this paper.
(1) The research on self-healing of smart grid.In this paper, it summarized the features of smart distribution grid and self-healing function,the realtionship between self-healing function and power supply disturbance was clarified.And then, it analyzed the key technology and indexes and promoted the technology framework of self-healing technology of distribution,grounding and whole electric compensation based on peer to peer communication.The technology evaluation indexes were built.
(2) The economic loss estimated model of short-time outage was created, it analyzed the formation and influence mechanism of short-term outage and the essential of power quality disturbance,the harm and feature of short-term outage to power consumers are summarized. The sensitive power consmers of short-term outage were selected by method of comprehensive weight grey correlation, it referenced the estimation method of general power outage loss.Then considered questionnaire state of power consumers, the loss estimation model of short-term outage was built.
(3) The economic loss estimated model of voltage sag was built.After that, it researched the probability and damage of voltage sag/dip,including tolerance region of power consumers'sensitive instruments and operation process.The uncertainty of various tolerance region was cleared.It change the times of voltage sag into the equal times of consumer power outage.By the uncertainty nature, it created the estimation method of voltage sag/dip loss by fuzzy logic reasoning.
(4) Taking risk evaluation on the economic loss of power supply disturbance.During the evaluation research on economic loss of power supply disturbance, risk assessment method was uniquely used and VaR index method of power supply disturbance was brought by Kolmogorov test method.By this way, it remarked the severity and possibility of economic loss caused by power supply disturbance from risk point.
(5) The comprehensive benefits evaluation model was built.And also, consider the economic feature of self-healing,it made research on the comprehensive benefits evaluation by theory of externality and comprehensive remark, the index system and evaluation model were built.The comprehensive benefits contains technology,economic,society,environment and application,it created a remark system by two sections. Meanwhile,it promoted the Life Cycle evaluation method of comprehensive benefits of self-healing distribution grid by triangular fuzzy-analysis hierarchy.
(6) By the evaluation model, it toke X city for example and analyzed its comprehensive benefits from self-healing distribution grid.The results showed that the power supply disturbance estimation model could be feasible and reflect various influence completely.The VaR index of power supply disturbance risk also could express the severity and possibility of short-term outage to city life.Besides,the Life Cycle evaluation method was useful to measure the comprehensive benefits of self-healing distribution grid.lt considered the variation of comprehensive benefits during the life cycle and made an objective and comprehensive evaluation.. In a word, these estimation models and indexes could become references for decision-making and evaluation,
The key feature of smart grid is good self-healing function.In this paper,it clarified the self-healing function, promoted new method of self-healing of short circuit fault and grounding fault, risk evaluation method,the economic loss estimated model of short outage and voltage sag.The comprehensive benefits evaluation indexes and model were built.These research results are meaningful to promoted the construction and healthy development of smart grid.
引文
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