货币量值的中国经济增长与波动
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摘要
新古典主义从边际革命以来就一直占据着经济理论界的主流地位。众所周知，新古典理论的分析思路是从生产力角度出发，以资源配置为基础的一种相对价格理论，它通过生产函数来解释现实经济社会中的种种问题。当然，这种思想和方法在微观经济学领域是毋庸置疑的，但是在宏观经济领域，新古典理论生产函数的实物分析方法无法对异质品进行加总，也无法表明总量之间的关系。因为，在现实的经济社会中，国民经济体系所表明的应该是一种生产关系，并且国民收入核算中的各个变量也是都是通过货币量值来表示的，所以说新古典的实物分析思路并不适用于这个现实。对于宏观经济来说，国民经济核算来自于一种经济制度，体现的是生产关系，而非生产力的高低，所以若是使用新古典的方法对于其进行分析，那么结论应该是不具有现实说服力的，并且会由此产生一系列的逻辑矛盾，经济学发展史的两次关于资本的争论就恰好说明了这个问题。
本文正是从资本争论出发，抛弃以生产力和资源配置为基础的生产函数，通过重新解读凯恩斯的货币经济思想，试图寻找到一种与新古典理论不同的分析思路和方法。在凯恩斯货币经济理论的基础上，建立了一个简单的货币内生条件下的成本收益函数，形成了货币量值的宏观经济分析框架。通过讨论此框架下的均衡，得出这样一个结论：宏观经济中的总收入、总需求和就业等经济变量是通过货币金融体系所决定的，而并非是像新古典主义主流经济学所宣扬的那样——取决于生产技术。在货币经济中，宏观经济变量是内生的货币供给系统的一部分，这些变量相互关联的，而稳定的经济增长就要求它们之间要保持一种稳定的比例。实际上，经济高涨到萧条的波动就是围绕这些变量的波动。在这个框架内，作者对我国宏观经济的运行情况进行了分析，特别针对我国经济结构、有效需求和收入分配等问题展开了探讨，我国目前存在的主要问题就是结构失衡所导致的有效需求不足。
本文首先对两次资本争论进行了回顾和论述，并由此引发出对于新古典理论的种种质疑，包括加总问题、资本倒流和技术再转折、外生的货币理论、市场经济和竞争以及分配理论等问题，在此基础上彻底抛弃了新古典主义经济学以生产函数为基础的分析思路和方法。并以凯恩斯的原著为基础，重新还原和解读了凯恩斯经济学的思想，其思想的核心就是一种关于货币的经济学理论，即认为货币是内生性的，非常强调货币在经济运行中的作用，特别是对于宏观经济来说，核心问题就是有效需求不足所引发的经济衰退，这也是本文的理论基础和思想根基。
在还原凯恩斯货币经济的思想的基础上，本文建立了一个货币量值的收入支出模型，从有效需求出发，对收入支出模型的动态变化的均衡条件进行了分析，并以此为基础讨论了宏观经济周期问题。随后，把货币金融体系与宏观经济波动相联系，在内生的货币供给情况下，讨论了经济增长的稳定状态。并依据在特定货币金融体系下的内在逻辑关系，对货币供给的内生性问题进行了实证分析，验证了关于货币供给内生性的观点。在前文分析的基础上，对我国改革开放以来宏观经济的运行情况进行了分析，特别是对经济结构、有效需求和收入分配进行了深入的探讨。得出了目前我国经济中存在的问题主要就是来自于有效需求不足和经济结构失衡的结论，并试图找到一种既能够保持经济高速增长又能够进行经济结构调整的方案。
Since the marginal revolution, the neo-classical has dominated the mainstreamof economic theory circles. As we all know that the neo-classical theory is a doctrineand a method from the perspective of productivity to solve and explain and all kindsof problems in the real situation of economic and social life, which is a relative pricetheory based on the allocations of resources. There is no doubt that the thinking andthe method of the neo-classical doctrine is established and effective to explain thephenomenon and solve the problems in the field of microeconomics. However, theneo-classical theory cannot find out a way to the value the gross and cannot explainand reveal the relation among any gross. The powerless of the neo-classical theory inthe field of macroeconomics is because that the essential key to search this area is notthe production technology but the relation of production. All the index varibles in thenational income accounting system should be valued by monetary representation,which is quite different from the physical measured method of neo-classical docrien.
Actually, we must find the key to understand and research the macroeconomicwhich is how the capitalist system runs, that’s the basic foundation to establish thenational economic accounting system and that generates all the index varibles. Thus,the relation of production is the most important point to look into the capitalistsystems, not the productive technology which is the prority point of neoclassicals toresearch and solve the macroeconomic questions. And then there will be full oflogical paradoxes and be lack of persuavice and explanatory power and the crebilityof the pratical problems. In the econmoc history, there are two noticeable capitalcontroversies which were rised by this issue. So the neo-classical economic theory istoo powerless to solve the questions in the macroeconomic area, the writer attempt tofind out a new way which is different from the neoclassic thinking to solve thisproblem.
This article starts with two two capital controversies and comes along theKeynesian monetary economic thought, abandons the traditional neo-classical production function analysis, establishes a new analytical framework in which all thevariables were valued by money, this is a simple cost-benefit function what can makerelation amongs all the index varibles in the national accounting economic system.We conclude that all the variables in the macroeconomic such as total revenue, totaldemand and employment are determined by the running of monetary and financialsystem not the productive technology what is insisted by the neo-classical economists.In the monetary economic, the money supply is endogenous and all the indexvariables are parts of the monetary and finacial system and determined byasset-backed and the motive of the profit. In the macroeconomic, all the varibles needto maintain a stable ratio to make the national economic performance achieve tosteady growth. The writer took the china’s economic growth and volatility since thereform and opening up as the object of study in this theorical framework, and lookinto the economic structure to find out the core issue which is the effective demandproblem because of the imbalance economic structure.
The paper is orgnazied as follow: the first chapter is the introduction in whichthe writer illustrates the meaning of the article, reviews the literatures. The secondchapter is the summary and sonclusion of the two capital controversy and thecriticisms of the neo-classical theory from several aspects and perspective. The thirdchapter is the reinterpretation of the Keynesian ideas, especiall his theory of themonetary economy. The forth chapter is to establish a new cost-benefit function and anew monetary framework, in which all the index variables are linked in the monetaryand financial systems. The fifth chapter is an empirical analysis of money supplyendogeneity conduction and.The sixth chapter is the research of the performance ofchina’s economy and then to look into the economic internal structure to find out thecore issue is that the effective problem by the imbalanced economic structure. Thelast chapter is the conclusion and the suggestion, the writer attempted to find a wayboth to keep the economic both to adjust the economic structure and to maintain ahigh level of economic growth.
本文正是从资本争论出发，抛弃以生产力和资源配置为基础的生产函数，通过重新解读凯恩斯的货币经济思想，试图寻找到一种与新古典理论不同的分析思路和方法。在凯恩斯货币经济理论的基础上，建立了一个简单的货币内生条件下的成本收益函数，形成了货币量值的宏观经济分析框架。通过讨论此框架下的均衡，得出这样一个结论：宏观经济中的总收入、总需求和就业等经济变量是通过货币金融体系所决定的，而并非是像新古典主义主流经济学所宣扬的那样——取决于生产技术。在货币经济中，宏观经济变量是内生的货币供给系统的一部分，这些变量相互关联的，而稳定的经济增长就要求它们之间要保持一种稳定的比例。实际上，经济高涨到萧条的波动就是围绕这些变量的波动。在这个框架内，作者对我国宏观经济的运行情况进行了分析，特别针对我国经济结构、有效需求和收入分配等问题展开了探讨，我国目前存在的主要问题就是结构失衡所导致的有效需求不足。
本文首先对两次资本争论进行了回顾和论述，并由此引发出对于新古典理论的种种质疑，包括加总问题、资本倒流和技术再转折、外生的货币理论、市场经济和竞争以及分配理论等问题，在此基础上彻底抛弃了新古典主义经济学以生产函数为基础的分析思路和方法。并以凯恩斯的原著为基础，重新还原和解读了凯恩斯经济学的思想，其思想的核心就是一种关于货币的经济学理论，即认为货币是内生性的，非常强调货币在经济运行中的作用，特别是对于宏观经济来说，核心问题就是有效需求不足所引发的经济衰退，这也是本文的理论基础和思想根基。
在还原凯恩斯货币经济的思想的基础上，本文建立了一个货币量值的收入支出模型，从有效需求出发，对收入支出模型的动态变化的均衡条件进行了分析，并以此为基础讨论了宏观经济周期问题。随后，把货币金融体系与宏观经济波动相联系，在内生的货币供给情况下，讨论了经济增长的稳定状态。并依据在特定货币金融体系下的内在逻辑关系，对货币供给的内生性问题进行了实证分析，验证了关于货币供给内生性的观点。在前文分析的基础上，对我国改革开放以来宏观经济的运行情况进行了分析，特别是对经济结构、有效需求和收入分配进行了深入的探讨。得出了目前我国经济中存在的问题主要就是来自于有效需求不足和经济结构失衡的结论，并试图找到一种既能够保持经济高速增长又能够进行经济结构调整的方案。
Since the marginal revolution, the neo-classical has dominated the mainstreamof economic theory circles. As we all know that the neo-classical theory is a doctrineand a method from the perspective of productivity to solve and explain and all kindsof problems in the real situation of economic and social life, which is a relative pricetheory based on the allocations of resources. There is no doubt that the thinking andthe method of the neo-classical doctrine is established and effective to explain thephenomenon and solve the problems in the field of microeconomics. However, theneo-classical theory cannot find out a way to the value the gross and cannot explainand reveal the relation among any gross. The powerless of the neo-classical theory inthe field of macroeconomics is because that the essential key to search this area is notthe production technology but the relation of production. All the index varibles in thenational income accounting system should be valued by monetary representation,which is quite different from the physical measured method of neo-classical docrien.
Actually, we must find the key to understand and research the macroeconomicwhich is how the capitalist system runs, that’s the basic foundation to establish thenational economic accounting system and that generates all the index varibles. Thus,the relation of production is the most important point to look into the capitalistsystems, not the productive technology which is the prority point of neoclassicals toresearch and solve the macroeconomic questions. And then there will be full oflogical paradoxes and be lack of persuavice and explanatory power and the crebilityof the pratical problems. In the econmoc history, there are two noticeable capitalcontroversies which were rised by this issue. So the neo-classical economic theory istoo powerless to solve the questions in the macroeconomic area, the writer attempt tofind out a new way which is different from the neoclassic thinking to solve thisproblem.
This article starts with two two capital controversies and comes along theKeynesian monetary economic thought, abandons the traditional neo-classical production function analysis, establishes a new analytical framework in which all thevariables were valued by money, this is a simple cost-benefit function what can makerelation amongs all the index varibles in the national accounting economic system.We conclude that all the variables in the macroeconomic such as total revenue, totaldemand and employment are determined by the running of monetary and financialsystem not the productive technology what is insisted by the neo-classical economists.In the monetary economic, the money supply is endogenous and all the indexvariables are parts of the monetary and finacial system and determined byasset-backed and the motive of the profit. In the macroeconomic, all the varibles needto maintain a stable ratio to make the national economic performance achieve tosteady growth. The writer took the china’s economic growth and volatility since thereform and opening up as the object of study in this theorical framework, and lookinto the economic structure to find out the core issue which is the effective demandproblem because of the imbalance economic structure.
The paper is orgnazied as follow: the first chapter is the introduction in whichthe writer illustrates the meaning of the article, reviews the literatures. The secondchapter is the summary and sonclusion of the two capital controversy and thecriticisms of the neo-classical theory from several aspects and perspective. The thirdchapter is the reinterpretation of the Keynesian ideas, especiall his theory of themonetary economy. The forth chapter is to establish a new cost-benefit function and anew monetary framework, in which all the index variables are linked in the monetaryand financial systems. The fifth chapter is an empirical analysis of money supplyendogeneity conduction and.The sixth chapter is the research of the performance ofchina’s economy and then to look into the economic internal structure to find out thecore issue is that the effective problem by the imbalanced economic structure. Thelast chapter is the conclusion and the suggestion, the writer attempted to find a wayboth to keep the economic both to adjust the economic structure and to maintain ahigh level of economic growth.
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